Saturday, December 19, 2009

How will be the crude oil prices in the months to come?

How will be the crude oil prices in the months to come?
The crude oil prices which was hovering around 12 to 15 dollars in 1998 has started the rally from that level towards 145 USD in 2008. A correction was set from that level.

Before the end of 2008, it tested USD 30 region and bounced back towards 80 USD. Since then it is trading in the region between USD60 and USD80.

Technically every Markets peaked in 2008 except Gold. Crude oil also peaked in 2008. The peak of Crude Oil was coincided with the start of recession in all global Economies. The demand for Energy was slowed by the slowing down of global economies. So the prices of crude oil stabilized around 70 USD in 2009.

Unless the Global Economies start showing growth the demand for Crude oil is more less would be the same. There would not be significant increase in the demand.

No Economic cycle shows fast decline followed by immediate growth. It will surely take to start the next cycles, which means we are likely to see some more years of downtrend.

Until then, we can be sure that oil prices would move above the 80 Dollars mark in the near future. Technically also, any which corrects itself more than one third will see a severe bear market. So, crude oil prices are likely remain in a range below USD 80 for few more years.

I may not be astonished in seeing Crude below USD30 in another 2 years.


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