Friday, December 18, 2009

Will the downtrend in Gold continue?


Will the downtrend in Gold continue?

After testing a high of 1226 USD Gold has reacted from that high to test a recent low of 1100. A 126 USD decline is a significant decline from the high. Such a decline in the past 6 months was not seen.
Previously I have been advocating that we are developing a ‘Gold Bubble’ and it about to burst. Will this decline foretell the end of the bull Market in Gold.
One of the famous tools used by Analyst to forecast free Markets is Elliott Wave Principle. Based on the study using that tool, it points we are in the fifth wave of a impulse, which means we are in the last leg of the bull Market.
According to the theory, If this is going to be the last leg of the bull Market, then we are going to see a big decline for another few years to come.
Ok, If 1226 is not the top, then what will be the Maximum target for Gold. Yes, based on Elliott Wave principle, we can derive a target of 1400 USD in another 6 months period.
Whenever a commodity is largely discussed in Media, then that would mark the significant turning point of that Market. Gold is being discussed in all world media and it is the only commodity which is in limelight for the past one Year.
Last when Crude oil Prices were peaking, the same story happened. Media covered Crude oil daily and their focus was on Crude oil with analysts predicting 200 to 250 USD as price Target.
Now, the same thing is happening in Gold.
Let us wait and see whether History repeats itself……………..