Monday, September 20, 2010

Will a ban on outsourcing Save US from recession?

The Obama Administration in USA has slapped service tax on companies which are outsourcing to other countries ( mostly to India ), in order to bring jobs back to USA and to improve the business conditions in USA. The Indian Software and BPOs are likely to suffer in the future, if the US companies stop outsourcing from India.
Will this act stop US from going into recession? If this is the question, then the answer would be good ‘NO’. The Global Economies suffered a setback in 2008 because of the crash in the stock Markets world over. The stock Market Crash has jolted the US and European Economies in particular.
Ever since the crash, the Asian and South American Economies improved and their Stock Markets rallied to their 2008 levels. But the US and European Economies seen little improvement and their Stock Markets rallied but not to the level which it was seen in 2008 January.
Since Stock Markets in these countries never rallied much, the liquidity, business confidence, job conditions have not improved. This percolates into their Economies which in turn is looking weak right now. Banning Outsourcing by the US companies in no way going to improve their economy.
Actually, it is likely to impact badly their economies in the Future. The performance of the US Companies depends upon the cost cutting measures they are taking. Stopping outsourcing will surely increase the working cost and it will be reflected in their bottom line.  A weak performance of these companies will further dampen the US Economy.

Saturday, September 4, 2010

Gold is likely to top in 3 months

Gold, it seems it is likely to be topped out in coming months between 1250 and 1300. Technically speaking, since 2006 Gold is in a expanding pattern. The first top formed on 2006, followed by the next on 2008 and the present top is likely to be formed on 2010.
In a expanding triangle, the first upside leg is followed by a first downside correction and it will be followed by the second upside leg by the second downside leg. The second upside and downside will be bigger than the first upside and downside legs. The third would be bigger than the second one.
The present technical setup of Gold shows, it is in the third upside leg and it is likely to be followed by a third downside leg and it would be the big downside in last 4 years since 2006. If that happens then Gold is likely to fall towards 900 USD in another 1 year.
Any market has see a bull and bear market. We have already seen bull market. So surely there will be bear market in Gold also. No one can take the rally in Gold as granted. Investments in Gold and related products should be avoided at this juncture.