Sunday, July 7, 2013

The Future Economic Rebalancing Of The World



In 2017, no European country will be included in the top ten contributors to global economic growth. The emerging economies will account for fifty percent of global production of goods and services. According to IMF, in the year 2018 the proportion will increase to 55%. And this is only the continuation of a trend that began there more than thirty years and represents a consolidation in the global economic consequences. As noted by the chief economist of Goldman Sachs who invented the concept and acronym BRIC's in the 1980s when the growth of the Chinese economy was even more important today, a growth rate of China's economy 10% was less important to the world that U.S. growth by 1%. In 2013, the rates of equivalence are 8% and 4%. Today, financial markets are equally concerned of China slowdown as the U.S. recovery. No wonder that, as growth in emerging was much stronger than the rest of the world, and that their standard of living per capita has steadily catching up with the seven most industrialized countries. By the mid-1990s, countries such as Germany and Italy had dropped from the list of top ten countries with the highest growth rates. While in the 1980s, the United States accounted for 30% of global growth and Europe 20%; in 2017 no European country will included in the top ten contributors to global growth. Europe as a whole no longer and will contribute only 6% of it, while India and China will contribute to almost 50%. Even more surprising is the speed at which occurs rebalancing and this because of the masses in. The economic transformation and urbanization of China occur at a scale with the population is one hundred times greater than that of Great Britain at its early industrialization and a speed ten times. Thus the Chinese momentum is 1000 times that of Britain 200 years ago. This rebalancing is a return to the state of the world that existed in the early nineteenth century. But this is only small consolation because it is perceived as a stall and undoubtedly contributes to the gloom in US, as in the rest of Europe.

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