Friday, November 7, 2014

Will The Eurozone Inflation Lower The Deflation Concerns?


Eurozone
According to the EU statistics agency, “Eurostat”, they made a first estimate that in the month of September, there was an increase of annual inflation of 0.3% when compared to 4% last month. This was very close to the target set by the European Central Bank of about target marking of 2%. This inflation was actually pushed by the increasing service sector prices, higher prices for food, tobacco products and alcohol prices. There was a marginal decrease in the energy prices when we compare the October month to that of September.

Decrease in the core inflation: 

When it came to core inflation, which has a higher effect on the food and energy prices saw a fall in the percentage, the core inflation came down from 0.8% to 0.7% in October. Eurozone inflation saw a slight increase in the month of October but the market economists have already raised an alarm that this will only help the policymakers slightly to defend themselves against the single currency bloc deflation.

According to Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING, even a slight increase in the core inflation will definitely take off a bit of pressure of the policymakers who are working at the European Central Bank (ECB). Deflation risks in Eurozone might see issues with the decrease in the core inflation during the month of October. This will force the ECB to take preventive measures as they will see increased pressure.

Actions from the ECB: 

According to Martin, depending on the recent decrease in the commodity prices they are not anticipating an increase in pressure in terms of energy and food prices in the coming couple of months. However, they are certainly expecting a decrease in the pressure down the line.

Depending on the current scenario and the Eurozone economic growth losing its charm, pressure is sure to stay over the European Central Bank. The ECB has taken precautionary measures to tackle the sudden changes in the Eurozone economy and to prevent any further damage from the deflation to both consumers and businesses. There are chances where people might want to hold on to their purchase hoping for a decrease in price.

According to a senior economist at Berenberg, Christian Schulz, the current situation of the economy can further impact the change in the inflation. Berenberg is planning to discuss further methods of easing the pain in their upcoming meetings.

Unemployment: 

According to the reports published by Eurostat, the unemployment rate in the Eurozone remained at 11.5% in the month of September. As per the chief European and UK economist Howard Archer working at IHS Global Insight; even though there was a decrease in the number of unemployed people, the employment rate in the 3rd quarter of October 2014, was lower than September. The employment rate was dropping continuously in the month of September and this was credited to the current state of the economy and also the decreasing in the confidence of the businesses.

According to report there was a decrease of 0.2% in the German GDP as well as the slow growth rate of the Eurozone, and the recession was indicating prospects of growth. The current economical situation indicates that the Germans and Western continental Europe will have a pretty bad moment

While on one side Eurozone is lessening the monetary policy to battle against the deflation; the central bank of Russia has raised their key interest rates from 8% to 9.5% to fight against the inflation.

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