Thursday, August 27, 2015

China Money Market Stabilises After PBOC Injections; Investors Eye More Easing

China

Medium-Term Lending Facility – MLF Eased Market

China’s main money rates had been mixed recently as the confidence of the investors in the market seemed to recover a bit followed by huge fund injections by central bank earlier this week. Liquidity situations seem to be tightened over the last 10 days though traders had informed that they are speculating on another major easing move soon, by the central bank.

One trader has commented at a city commercial bank in Shanghai, that that they have experienced a difficult week. Mostly it is impossible to purchase overnight repos in the first two days. The medium-term lending facility – MLF and injection achieved to ease the market and these movements relieved investors and major banks, Some of the major banks have begun providing funds

The outcome of China’s surprise yuan devaluation on August 11, market viewers are concerned of the investors moving quickly out of yuan assets and into dollars, forcing yuan liquidity as well as the money market. Constricted liquidity could have also been a factor in the large equity market sell-off.

Central Bank – Address Liquidity Concerns

Trailing after a partial recovery earlier in August, benchmark of China’s CSI 300 equity index had fallen down by 11% on the week by The volume weighted benchmark seven day repurchase agreement –repo rate, considered the best indicator of short term liquidity conditions in China, increased by 11 basis points from August 11 to August 20 eventually hitting 2.58% on Thursday afternoon.

The central bank moved to address liquidity concerns on Wednesday and Thursday by lending 110 billion yuan to 14 banks through it medium term lending facility as well as injecting 120 billion yuan in money markets through the operation of open market. Central bank’s open market injection this week of 150 billion yuan was the largest since early February.

The repo of seven day eventually responded on Friday with trading at 2.5475 percent late morning with a modern fall of 3.26 basis points from the earlier day’s closing average rate. However, liquidity was yet under pressure owing to client dollar demand as well as real borrowing rates remaining high further down the yield curve. Traders are anticipating easing measures to come up soon.

Push Down Long Term Rates/Dissuade Borrowers – Short Term Money

A trader had mentioned that the central bank is subtle and they have to take into consideration the potential yuan devaluation as well as economic pressures in the next half year and once the direct injections is not capable of offsetting the liquidity shortfall adequately, central bank would have to cut interest rates.

One day repo had gone up by 0.99 basis point at 1.82% against Thursday’s closing and the 14 day repo was up, 1.75 basis point at 2.71%. The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate – SHIBOR, for same tenor increased to 2.5990 percent up 1.30 basis point from the earlier close.

 In order to decrease speculation and guide more funds in long term productive investment, central bank has been making efforts to push down long term rates and dissuade borrowers from easy short term money. However a shaky stock market tends to keep it under pressure in keeping short term rates low in order to support share prices.

Long term rates on safe haven government debt and policy bank bonds seem to have fallen severelysince equity modification in late June and yields on corporate debt have scarcely shifted.

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