Showing posts with label china. Show all posts
Showing posts with label china. Show all posts

Monday, March 14, 2016

Asian Shares Slip, Though China Ekes Out Gain


Shares of China Eked Gains

Shares of China have eked out gains though most of the Asian markets have reviewed some of their latest rally, with traders assimilating weaker than expected trade data from the mainland. A market analyst at IG, Angus Nicholson had informed sources that plenty of the latest rally in stocks had been driven by major reversal or short covering in financials, materials as well as energy. However, he mentioned that momentum decreasing in the other sectors have now been falling in these sectors also.

The trade data of China that was released at about 10.30 a.m. SIN/HK time was also not positive for sentiments with the February exports dropping to 25.4% in terms of U.S. dollar, while imports fell by 13.8%, with the drops wider than anticipations. Since 2009, the decline in exports had been the largest on year drop according to Reuters.

 The Chinese markets ended higher with the Shanghai composite ending up 2.57, or 0.1% at 2,899.91 with the Shenzhen composite up 8.89 points or 0.51% at 1,750.56. Nicholson had noted that the foreign exchange reserves data of China, released overnight would probably have totally reassured markets around the prospect for further Yuan devaluation.

Official Data Released – Marked Fourth Straight Month of Decline

An official data released recently after the market close, portrayed foreign currency reserves on the mainland dropped to $3.2 trillion towards the end of February, declining from $3.23 trillion the earlier month, thus marking the fourth straight month of decline. However, the pace of outflows slackened substantially and the February figure was in line with analysts’ potentials portrayed in Reuter’s poll.Among other markets, benchmark of Japan, Nikkei 225 closed down 128.17 points or 0.76 percent at 16,783.15 extending Monday’s drop of 0.6%.

Reuters had reported revised government data, before the market opened, showing Japan’s economy had shrank at an annualized 1.1% in the final quarter of 2015 which was revised up from a initial reading of 1.4% contraction. Through the Korean Strait, the Kospi had closed down 11.75% or 0.60% at 1,946.12 while in Hong Kong; the Hang Seng index had closed down 148.14 points of 0.73% to 20,011.58.

Main Miners – Australia, Given up on Early Gains

The main miners in Australia had given up on early gains with Rio Tinto closing at 2.60% BHP Billiton less by 1.83% with iron ore producer Fortescue dropping 9.42% after surging almost 24% on Monday. Fortescue had announced before the market open that it had been in talks with Vale in order to work together to blend iron ore to meet up the demands of its consumers.

 According to the announcement there was a possibility of seeing the Brazilian miner take a 5-15% minority stake in Australian miner. On the other hand, Gold miners saw an uptick with the shares of Newscrest closing at 1.30% while Alacer Gold added 0.72%. HK/SIN time spot gold traded high at $1,269.57 for an ounce though below the Friday peak of $1,279.60, which was the highest since February 3, 2015 as of 3.13 p.m. U.S. gold for April delivery had gained overnight by 0.5% to $1,269.90 an ounce.

Suzuki Motor, Japanese automaker had closed at 3.76% after a report in the Nikkei stating that the company would issue 200 billion yen in zero-coupon convertible bonds, using most of the profits in spreading its setup in India.

Monday, January 25, 2016

IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast As China Growth Slows


IMF Cuts Forecast of Global Growth

Recently the International Monetary Fund – IMF had cut its forecasts of global growth for the third time in less than a year, as the new figures from Beijing indicated that the Chinese economy in 2015, had been at its slowest rate in a quarter of a century. The IMF, to support its forecasts had cited a sharp slowdown in China trade and weak product prices which were hammering Brazil together with the other emerging markets.

 The Fund had forecast that the world economy would tend to grow at 3.4% towards 2016and 3.6% in 2017; both the years would be down by 0.2% point from the earlier estimates made last October. It has stated that policymakers need to consider means of bolstering short-term demand.

The updated forecast of the World Economic Outlook came as global financial markets were shaken by worries over the slowdown of China as confirmed by official Chinese data on Tuesday together with the plunging oil prices. IMF had maintained its earlier China growth forecasts of 6.3% in 2016 and 6.0% in 2017 representing sharp slowdowns from 2015.

Concern over Beijing’s Hold on Economic Policy

According to China’s report, growth for 2015 had hit 6.9% after a year wherein the world’s second biggest economy had suffered huge capital outflows, a slip in the currency as well as summer stock market crash. There was a rise in shares in Europeand Asia and the dollar gained after the China data had been released, while investors expected greater effort by Beijing to spur growth.

 There was concern over Beijing’s hold on economic policy which had shot to the top of global investors’ risk list for the year 2016 after drop in its stock markets as well as the Yuan fuelled worries that the economy would be quickly weakening.

The Fund also mentioned that a steeper slowing of demand in China seemed to be a risk to the global growth. The weaker than expected Chines imports as well as exports had been weighing heavily on the other emerging markets as well as commodity exporters.

Major Risk Aversion/Currency Depreciation/Dollar Appreciation

Maurice Obstfeld, IMF economic counsellor had mentioned in a videotaped statement that `they do not see a big change in the fundamentals in China compared to what is was seen six months ago though the markets are certainly very spooked by small events there that they find it hard to interpret’ He further added that the global financial markets seems to be overreacting to the oil prices drop as well as the risk of a sharp downturn in China and it was critical that China is clear about its overall economic strategy inclusive of its currency.

At a news conference Obstfeld had stated that `it is not a stretch to suggest that markets may be responding very strongly to rather small bits of evidence in an environment of volatility and risk aversion. The oil price puts strains on oil exporters, but there is a silver lining for consumers worldwide, so it is not an unmitigated negative’.

The IMF report states that continued market upheaval would also tend to help in dragging growth lower if it heads to major risk aversion and currency depreciation in the emerging markets. Besides this, other risk would comprise of further dollar appreciation and acceleration of geopolitical tensions.

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

The Chinese Yuan is Going Global


Yuan Part of Selected Basket of Currencies

According to the International Monetary Fund – IMF, the Yuan is now part of selected basket of currencies which till now included only the US dollar, the Japanese yen, the euro and the British pound. The Yuan would not generally be a part of the basket till September 2016 and this move would not be having any immediate influence on the financial markets.

This gesture seems to be a significant one and an indication that China has been progressing faster and further on the global financial stage. It has been predicted by Nomura Securities that by 2030, the Yuan would become one of the highest three major international currencies, `a peer to the US dollar as well as the euro, as the most used currencies in the world’.

However, it all depends on whether China tends to continue its financial reforms which have been one of the major reasons of the IMF’s verdict of including the Yuan in this choice basket currency. The IMF has informed that` the decision was an important milestone in the integration of the Chinese economy in the global financial system’. It would bring a more robust international monetary as well as financial system.

China – Important to the Global Financial System

Nomura has informed that though the share of yuan’s trading volumes in the international currency market tends to be small, less than 2% comparative to China’s share of global gross domestic product, its daily trading volume had tripled between 2010 and 2014 from $34bn to $120bn. This indicates that there is a lot more yuan on the markets.

For the last few years, China had been working towards this and it is amazing that their extremely managed currency seems fit to enter this special basket of freely traded currencies. Beijing considers the inclusion of the yuan as an indication of how important China has become to the global financial system.

The world’s second largest economy had to push through numerous changes in recent times inclusive of enabling foreign investors in accessing its stock markets, to make this happen. The main determinant as to whether the yuan gets to the next step will depend on how transparent China would be about the way it tends to run its financial market.

Chinese Official under Pressure/Scrutiny

Considering the slowing economic growth in China, analysts have accepted that there have been some disturbing signs which the government is trying to either roll back on some the key financial changes or that those in charge may not know what they are doing. The point is that earlier this year, the effective devaluation of the year had taken the markets by surprise and the People’s Bank of China was disapproved for mishandling the communication around how the events had unfolded.

Chinese officials are now under more pressure as well as scrutiny in getting their message right. Moreover the world would also be watching to see what type of influence more yuan would have in circulating in the international markets. Should the yuan tend to be a fixture of the global economy, there is a possibility that the rest of the world would become even more exposed to what Beijing does, which will make it more important that the leaders of China push through meaningful financial changes.

Saturday, October 3, 2015

The Truth about China's Dwindling War Chest


China – The World’s Largest Creditor

China is considered to be the world’s largest creditor and the enormous money reserves of Beijing presently stands at a $3.6 trillion, which is still the leading owner foreign holder of US government debt. For over two decades, China, the world’s second largest economy had developed a war chest of foreign currency assets as a shield against the global winds.

However, on August 11, the decision taken to tweak its exchange rate regime to engineer the biggest single devaluation of the renminbi in 21 years has put forth the query of reserve depletion in severe aid. After deserting its peg with the US dollar for anachieveddrift, those in authority have been compelled to get involved on a huge scale to prop up the renminbi.

China had gone through reserves due to this failed devaluation, at an unmatched pace this summer wherein the reserves had dropped by $93.9 billion in August. This was the biggest monthly fall on record as well as the largest with regards to percentage terms since May 2012. This is set to continue for at least the remaining of the year. China would be slowly moving towards a much flexible exchange rate though not yet willing to feature a considerably weaker renminbi

Quantitative Tightening

As per UBS analysis, almost 70% of China’s reserve accumulation between 2005 and 2014 was from the country’s enormous present account excesses. The total reserves emaciated at $4 trillion in August 2014 had been on a steady decline since then.

As for the composition, UBS note that almost two-thirds around 62% was held in US dollar assets with about $1.27 trillion in the US treasury bonds. China had shifted from being a net buyer to a net seller of dollar assets to defend the value of the renminbi and this has given rise for concern that Beijing’s actions tends to have a stifling effect on the global credit as well as liquidity conditions.

This occurrence named as `quantitative tightening has been seen as concern when China can no longer play a part as the driver of global economic prosperity, at a time when the Federal Reserves is ultimately poised to begin normalising the monetary policy. In the midst of the trouble surrounding China’s prospects, economist tends to remain optimistic, speculating the fears of a dwindling war chest are possibly overdone.

China/Emerging Markets – Offload Foreign Currency Assets

Bumper reserves of Beijing, at $3.6 trillion, seem to be adequate in continuing to establish the currency and covering 20 months of imports of goods and services. All this, states, Tao Wang at UBS, `while the country continues running a current account surplus of over $300bn a year’.

Others consider that Beijing’s intensive reserve accumulation had been developed to confront precisely the kind of headwinds presently facing the country and are not surprising that the Politburo is now organizing them for the same purpose.

The authorities have also other various tools to fight off tighter monetary conditions. With regards to the impact on the growth of China on the rest of the world, the QT theory for intuitive appeal is still to be materialised in the form of rising bond yields with higher debt costs in the developed world.

China together with the other emerging markets could be offloading their foreign currency assets to handle their individual exchange rates though these may not be destined to drive up the bond prices according to economists.

Saturday, September 10, 2011

Fitch could degrade China because of the banking sector

While the European Union and the United States is buffeted by a debt crisis without precedent, Thursday, rating agency Fitch said it may lower the sovereign rating of China in the next two years. Reasons: the heavy debt the Chinese banking sector, the latter having provided massive loans in recent months.

In an interview with Reuters, Andrew Colquhoun, head of Asia Pacific ratings at Fitch, has considered possible a downgrade in China from 12 to 24 months. "We anticipate a material deterioration in the quality of bank assets. If the problems of the sector are changing as we anticipate, or even worse, the next 12 to 24 months, this would lead us to lower the note," he warned.

Last April, already, Fitch lowered its rating outlook on China's "stable" to "negative", citing concerns that date on the financial stability of the country following the decision in Beijing to increase bank credit to maintain China's economic growth. Currently, Fitch assigns the note to China 'AA-', corresponding to the fourth highest level of its scale, position equivalent to that of Italy and a notch below that of Spain.

In early July, the rating agency Moody's had indicated that for its public debt to China stood at 36% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), taking into account the share of the debts of local governments for which Beijing assume direct responsibility. A few days earlier, the National Audit Office had indicated that the debts of the provinces, municipalities and districts Chinese rose late 2010 to 27% of Chinese GDP, representing a total of 1.163 trillion Euros.

The same office had, however, insisted that 63% of this debt would be repaid through revenue budget.

Now where the rub is; that they have borrowed huge amounts from the global financial crisis, via means of ad hoc structures called "platforms financing" or PFL.
Objective: To finance infrastructure and housing projects not always profitable.

But according to the National Audit Office; the "ability to pay is low and faces potential risks in certain areas and certain industries." Indeed, in a snowball effect, some local governments had to make new loans ... to repay the debts already contracted, also heavily dependent on land sales to meet their deadlines.

According to the auditors of governments of China, 108.3 billion yuan (11.8 billion) of loans were made or used fraudulently, the money ends up in banks or stock markets real estate.

Indeed, point out that as a guarantee, the PFL received capital that comes from land assets transferred by the community investment fund and ... fraud, bank lending in the short term what notionally provide a PFL time he gets a larger credit. All of which leads ultimately to the National Audit Office that the platforms of local funding must be "cleaned and regulated."

A bit worried, Moody's said that Chinese banks have lent billions of 8500 yuan (905 billion) out of 10'700 billion yuan (1.163 trillion euros) to local governments ... a situation that causes a high risk exposure.

"The debts existed before the global financial crisis, but they quickly accumulated in the last two years while investment by local governments has been used as a key tool" to boost the economy, adds Moody's.

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

China Shakes The World

I recently read a book recently published by James Kyng, former Financial Times correspondent in China, under the title "China Shakes the World, The Rise of a hungry nation."
Some ideas to be learned from this fascinating book:
- The Chinese labor force increases by 25 million people each year who must find work. This is without counting the internal population movements, with the influx from the countryside to the cities. The strong long-term growth of the economy is a vital necessity. To simplify, China said the jobs to us, the West said to us profits.
- The vastness of the Chinese domestic market is a dream, not only the West; the Chinese as well. In fact, the Chinese domestic competition in all segments of consumer products is intense, especially since the producers are on equal terms. The consequence is that the margins are very low, and profits are sought for export.
- At the cultural level, the numbers of very great importance. The official slogans are an illustration. This is a consequence of the permanent situation of overpopulation, and the difficulty to feed every mouth. China is a country that really hungry, in every sense of the word. We can better understand the speed with which China has integrated science and technology.

For the future, let us ask some questions about the future role of China in the world of finance. With 1.2 trillion dollars in foreign reserves, increasing rapidly, and a large domestic savings, the raw material does not fail! For now, the asset allocation is not optimal. But it is likely that major Chinese banks will quickly integrate the tools of modern finance. With the size of their balance sheets, they will become formidable competitors. Moreover, the government plans to create an investment agency, with $ 200 billion to begin with, history of investing a portion of foreign exchange reserves of more optimally, a little on the model of Singapore's Temasek. This will be an institutional investor interest. The time is not far distant when China initiated the takeover bid will win over European and U.S. exchanges.

Sunday, January 24, 2010

Gender Bias in Workspace

6949Gender bias is a problem faced mainly by the fairer sex in all countries. It is felt less in developed countries like north American Countries and European Countries. But this disparity is much felt in Asian and African countries. In Asian countries, mostly in Muslim countries it is being witnessed much more. This is because of religious and Political reasons. But as the years go by, this disparity is started shrinking in all asian countries.

It is particularly improved in India for the last one decade. The statistics released by the Government of India says it has steadily been improving for the past ten years. The two parameters for the development of Women, Gender development index and Gender Empowerment Measurement have been increasing for the past five years.

This increase in the index shows the improvement of Women in the fields of Politics, Health, literacy, decision making and standard of living. After the boom in IT and Telecom Industry in India, the women participation in this Industry has started increasing. This gives them an opportunity to get salaries as equal as their male counterpart.

Women have occupied some of the top most posts in some of the leading companies in India. The previous records of harassment and sexual violence against women have started declining. Though, it was not completely eradicated, but for sure it is in declining path.

Some of the top posts like president of India, Chairperson of the Lower House, Leader of the ruling Alliance are all occupied by women in India. Though China is little bit advanced in Economic Growth and Military Growth, women disparity has not declined as much as in India. In this area, India is much developed than China.

We hope this disparity would soon be completely disappearing in all Asian Countries.

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Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Financial power would translate into Super power

The Country which flourishes in the Trade and Commerce would automatically turn into a financial power and then into a Military Power and then into Super power.
Since, the beginning of the 15th Century, the British started trading with all parts of the World and slowly started conquering the world and soon became the super power of the world. Their financial power turned into Military power.
After the Independence of USA from British, they started growing as a business power and by the start of 20th Century they become the center of world trade. The free society and vibrant democratic system of the USA attracted the Investors, Professionals and Business-mans all over the world, to live and do business. Their rule of the law atmosphere has made USA a conducive place for Investing.
Soon USA grew as a financial power and then it slowly grew as a Military power and by another fifty years it is the only super power in the World.
Any country which is growing financially would one day become a financial power and then into a Military power and then as Super Power. In the present days, China followed by India has started growing as Financial powers. G-8 Grouping lost its significance and G-20 grouping has become the new power bloc of the world which includes China and India.
If the financial growth is sustained in China and India in years to come, then surely these two countries are likely to be the Super Powers after USA.