Complication and Implication of Virtual Water- I

Water – Huge Number of Characteristics – Important Economic Good

Image credit:ourworld.unu.edu

Water, though not a normal economic good has a huge number of characteristics which distinguishes it from the other goods and these characteristic individually may not be important but its combination makes water an important economic good.`Virtual water’ term was first used in the context of water scarce in Middle Eastern and Northern African countries that imported huge quantity of their food and thereby reduced substantially the demand of water in domestic food production as well as compensated for lack of water.

Importing food was virtually equal to trading water for these countries. Allan (1966) termed water - embodied in food import as virtual water. The terminology as well as the scope of virtual water over the years is extended beyond the original purpose. Presently the definition accepted on virtual water is the water requirement for production of commodities and since food production in several countries is by the largest water user, topics on virtual water problems have been targeted primarily on food commodities.

Virtual water is politically silent and economically invisible (Allan 2003a) and in the past, this has made it possible for water scarce countries to manage with water deficit through food import without a policy discourse of national water scarcity.

Debates – Usefulness of Concept/Feasibility to Import Virtual Water

The term virtual water came into focus in mid 1990s and since then has drawn growing awareness among policy makers, general public and scientific communities. It has become a topic which is discussed recurrently at several international conferences as well as meetings, especially the World Water Forum organized by the World Water Council as well as the Stockholm World Water Week which is an annual event and convened by the Stockholm International Water Institute.

Relevant issues publications have been rapidly on the rise in the international journals. There have been intense debates on the usefulness of the concept as well as the feasibility to import virtual water to reduce local scarcity of water. More than a decade of efforts have been made in virtual water studies and it is time now for a critical review to be done on relevance of virtual water concept in heightening our understanding of real water resources management.

Water – Limiting Factor/Significant Impact

Water is now becoming an increasing limiting factor for sustainable growth and development of economy in many countries, its allocation having a significant impact on the whole economic efficiency especially the mounting physical scarcity in some regions. Need for huge water supply tends to increase the vulnerability in the affected areas.

Moreover, water has also become a strategic resource which involves disputes among those who tend to be affected differently by various policies. Some papers tend to analyse various policy interventions focused at improving water allocation decisions with a novel approach which could incorporate macro as well as micro level options in a unified analytical guidelines which could facilitate assessment of different linkages with other policies as well as their impacts in individual sectors and the wide economy.

Policy impacts comparison indicates the usefulness of the guidelines in information, which the policy makers could use to rank policy intervention as per the emphasis given on various policy objectives.

Virtual Water

Virtual Water Trade – Embedded/Embodied Water 

Virtual water is defined as the total volume water which is needed in order to produce and process. Virtual water trade also known as trade in embodied or embedded water is related to hidden flow of water in case other commodities or food tend to get traded in different places.

On an average it takes around1,600 cubic meters of water to produce ` metric tonne of wheat and the accurate volume could depend on more or less on the climate as well as agricultural conditions. According to Hoekstra and Chapagain they have defined virtual content of product – a commodity, service or good, as `volume of freshwater which is utilised to create a product, measured at the place it was actually produced’ and relates to the sum on the utilisation of the water in the various stages of the production chain.

According to John Anthony Allan, Professor from King’s College London and the School of Oriental and African Studies had introduced the concept of virtual water in order to support his views that countries in the Middle East could save their scarce supply of water by relying on import of food.

He received an award of the 2008 Stockholm Water Prize, for his contribution. He states that `the water is considered to be virtual due to the fact that once the wheat is grown, the real water used to grow it is no longer actually contained in the wheat and the concept of virtual water helps in realizing how much water could be needed to produce different goods and services’.

Some Deficiencies in Concept of Virtual Water

He further states that in `arid and semi-arid locations, the value of the virtual water of good or service could be useful in determining the best use of the available scarce water.’ However there are some deficiencies in the concept of virtual water which means that there is a significant danger on depending on these measures in order to guide policy conclusions.

As per Australia’s National Water Commission it is considered that the measurement of virtual water has less practical value in the making of decision with regards to the best allocation of scarce water resources.

Recently the concept of virtual water trade has been gaining weightage in the scientific and the political arguments with the notion of its concept being ambiguous and changes have been moving between a descriptive, analytical concept and a political induced strategy.

From the point of view of an analytical concept, virtual water trade relates to an instrument which enables the identification as well as the assessment of policy choice not only in the scientific but also in the political discourse.

Concept Analytically helps Global/Local/Regional Level

From the point of politically induced strategy, the query is whether virtual water trade could be used in a sustainable way, or whether implementation could be managed in an economic, social or in an ecological manner and which countries would have a meaningful option of the concept offered.

In the framework of latest developments from supply oriented to demand oriented management of water resources, new field of governance has opened up which facilitates a differentiation as well as balancing of different perspective, interest and basic condition.

The concept analytically helps in distinguishing between global, local and regional level, together with their linkages. Which means that water resource problem needs to be solved.

World Bank Forecasts India to Become World’s Fastest Growing Economy By 2017

India is on the verge of becoming the fastest growing big economy in the world in 2017. World Bank has released a forecast which shows India edging past the China at an estimated growth rate of 7% in its GDP whereas the rival neighbour China would growth grow at 6.9%. This report was published in the World Bank’s flagship publication called Global Economic Reports. This influential report even warns India that having any possible slackening in the reform momentum would result in slowing down in economy growth and its pace of recovery.

Deceleration in China’s Economy A Boon For Indian Economy

For several years in a row China has projected itself as one of the fastest growing economy but in coming years in expected to slow down to 7.1%. Last year it was growing at a robust pace of 7.4% and it is going decelerate further to 7% and by 2017 it will touch the 6.9% mark. The relative sizes of the two giant economies of Asia shows a wide gap. China’s economy was at $9.2 trillion whereas India’s $1.87 trillion which certainly means that India had a really long way to go. World Bank report has characterised the China’s eventual deceleration as a carefully managed slowdown

India Expected To Touch 7% Growth Rate Earlier Than Expected

The Bangkok based United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific commonly known as ESCAP have published separate report which projects the growth of Indian economy at the pace of 6.4% for the current year. International Investment bank Golsman Sachs shows another turn and expects that India would achieve the projected growth rate of 7% a year in advance and it nudges past China smoothly.

Indian economy would be helped by the steep falling in oil prices and other energy commodities as well as by the low interest rate in developing countries. India should employ this falling oil price window by ushering the fiscal and structural reforms and boosts it long-run growth as well as inclusive development. Both ESCAP and the World Bank have rightly pointed towards cutting fuel subsidies and diverting funds for the financial sustainable development.

Global Growth Rate To Rise

Global growth rate is expected to rise by 0.4% to register 3.0% in 2015 from 2.6 in 2014. Further reports suggest it will rise to 3.3% in 2017. Developing countries is expected show a growth rate of 2.2% this year from 1.8% in 2014 and by 2.3 % in 2017.

ESCAP report states that India is very genuinely identified the infrastructural development as the key element for economy growth but it does face shortage of government resources. ESCAP therefore recommends for giving importance to private sector in infrastructure development as well as collaborating with government. World Bank report states that reforms and regulations by the government in India should aim towards boosting foreign direct investment. Increase in investments would help the nation in achieving the growth rate of 7% by 2016.

Mining Stocks take a Toll Due To Plunge in Copper Prices

The concerns over the slowing global economy complimented with the excess supply saw a major slide in the prices of copper. The shares of coppers miners dipped low in the morning trade and future prices of the copper saw a major upheaval wherein tumbled down to a 5 year low. Wednesday drop is incidentally the sixth consecutive decline the copper prices and currently the copper are trading at $5,560 per ton. The sudden and steep decline in prices is causing a significant pain to major mining companies like FCX, Glencore and others whose stocks has taken a beat down by recording a massive low.

The Major Copper Producers Take A Hit

Freeport McMoRan Inc known as FCX which is the largest copper producer listed on stock exchange saw a massive decline of 9.5%. Freeport shares are now at trading at $19.05 which is its lowest registered price since April 2009. Even the other suppliers of the metals shared the same fate and fell considerably low. Glencore Plc (GLEN) which is the third largest producer saw a drop of 12% in London while the First Quantum Minerals fell by 27% in Toronto.

A Kazakhstan copper producer Kaz Minerals Plc (KAZ) also registered a fall by 23% in London while Vedanta Resources Plc (VED) which a giant producer of copper in Indian and Zambia fell by 20% followed by Antofagasta Plc (ANTO) registered a drop of 13%.

Drop In Copper Prices Raises Concern

Investors are keeping a keen interest in the fate of the copper prices which doesn’t seem to have any silver lining for the moment. This precious metal is characteristically referred as ‘Dr. Copper’ due to wide spread usage in various industries. Copper is the recent entrant in the club of commodities market which had registered a sharp plunge in its rates globally after the fall in the prices of the oil. Just like the oil, copper tend to have deep impact upon the world economy as it is key element for the phone lines, cables and other infrastructures. The world largest copper producers are in order of their production ability are Chile, Chiba, Peru, US and Australia.

The sudden and deliberate fall in copper price is a major concern and it is seen as a domino effect rising due to considerable rout in oil prices. It is now spreading to other commodities which include copper as well. This is also perplexing and points towards the imminent slowdown in global economy which is deeper than thought and certainly it wouldn’t be limited to energy market.

World Bank Shows A Slow Global Economic Forecast

Owing to the steep drop in prices of various commodities the World Bank has cut down its global economic growth forecast to just 3% from the 3.4%. The data of Wednesday even pointed out that the December retail sales had declined much more than expected earlier. The price fall in crude oil had made investors quite uneasy about holding on to the energy stocks and their shedding of those would inevitably lead to more losses in various commodities which includes coppers as well.

U.S. Shows Impressive Growth in Third Quarter

U.S. economy is showing robust rate which has turned out to be beyond the expectation of the market analysts in the third quarter. Its better performance is accredited to the strengthening of its fundamentals which would help it in weather the slowing global demand. The U.S. economy has posted back-to back growth in second and third quarter for the first time in last 11 years. This shows that economy is in good health along with a great momentum which would help it generating more returns.

GDP Grows and Boosts Confidence

The Commerce Department has raised its estimate of the possible GDP growth to 3.9% annually from just 3.5 % which it assumed last month. If we combine the 4.6% gain of the second quarter then it would be best six-month growth stretch for the U.S. economy after 2003. The poor performance of the economy has been resulting from the Japanese recession, a weak and depleted euro zone as well the slowing Chinese economy.

Increased Consumer Spending

The consumer spending has increased considerably from just 1.8% to 2.2%. GDP report points out that the Households are spending at the retail stores than at on the auto fuels. Another major source of the economy’s growth is the increase in the business investment in procuring equipments from just 7.2 % to 10.7%. The national companies have also boosted their inventories which helped in adding $79.1 billion to the GDP instead of $62.8 billion.

U.S. economy has also suffered from the downside in the few months. Its exports growth has diminished from 7.8% to 4.9% due to slower growth in Europe and Asia chopping out a bite from the economy. Even the imports suffered and fell at a 0.7% annual rate which was earlier estimated to be 1.7%.

More Returns In Upcoming Days

The U.S. economy is right on track for adding more new jobs since 1999. Sectors related from manufacturing to retail would continue to gain strength in upcoming days. The decrease in the gasoline prices has fuelled to a renewed optimism about economy which is heading in the new year. Decrease in fuel price is helping the citizens to save $50 dollars more each year due to falling energy costs. Even the inflation rose at just 1.3% annual rate in the third quarter than the 2.3% in the last quarter.

Growth Momentum Likely To be Carried Forward

The second and third quarters have shown a commendable growth in wages and salaries. Economists believe that the bringing GDP based wages and salaries measures into line with the earnings figures had helped in forming a right response and idea.

U.S. stocks have shown a little change while the dollar has performed poorly against the other major currencies. Prices for the U.S. Treasury debt rose just marginally. U.S. economy is growing stringer by each passing day and it is clearly apparent from the rising numbers in the GDP. The economists believe that the economy is having a great momentum and this momentum could even be transferred into the final three months of the year.

Russian And Chinese Financial Markets

Chinese Yuan and Russian Ruble have recently experienced major setback, but for very different reasons. The announcement of the Chinese government to let the Yuan move in a range of plus or minus 2 % has created a surprise in the markets. In the days following this statement, the Chinese currency has indeed dropped to an 11-month low against the dollar.

In reality, this decision was expected, since the fall of 2013, the Governor of the Central Bank warned of the upcoming expansion of the trading band of the Yuan. It is true that the sudden depreciation of the early days, especially against the dollar, was fairly quickly resolved. If the depreciation that proves the strongest since 1994, it remains in proportions not only measured but controlled by the Central Bank. Thus, beyond the announcement effect, the markets do not seem to feed strong concern about the evolution of the Yuan and even less about the health of the Chinese economy.

Especially since this return to flexibility of the Yuan down as well as up, is precisely to further solidify the foundation of the Chinese economy. China has embarked on a process of re balancing of growth towards domestic demand as well as a consolidation of public finances. According to him, any measures to boost the economy also helps to reassure people whose financial and social demands are constantly increasing. It is also the objective of a sound and sustainable growth which explains the choice of the Chinese Government to allow a large company to go bankrupt very heavily subsidized renewable energy sector. The company Chaori could therefore meet its debts to its investors. It will clean up some of its financial system, subject to excess debt and opaque practices.

The Chinese government has chosen not to support non-viable enterprises, let alone those who receive large subsidies, in order not to increase the burden of its banks and impose market logic. Until then, the belief that the state would not let such events happen has led to excess in the amount and nature of funding. The latter had to make a choice between business support and support for local communities, also very involved in the shadow banking. Cannot decently leave recent bankruptcy, the Government has favored the establishment of a strict control with the creation of a Court of Auditors Chinese to limit debt and achieve sustainable deflation of this bubble harmful healthy growth.

This is however not the case of the Russian currency, battered since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis. If the volumes traded in rubles remain incomparably lower than those on the Yuan, the fact is that political tensions between Ukraine and Russia had the effect of attracting new investors, including individuals. He was so good omen to play down a currency bearing the brunt of foreign policy of President Putin. Despite the intervention of the Central Bank of Russia on the changes announced on March 3 despite taking opposite positions past , the depreciation of the Ruble continued until mid- March Rubles against the Euro.

Recall that the currency had already experienced a wave of mistrust in January, as many is emerging market currencies. Since the only vain and the Russian Central Bank intervention the ruble is evolving freely. But not necessarily down. The evolution of the situation in Crimea, who voted in a referendum for unification with Russia, indeed helps to stabilize the ruble since the weekend of March 14. The Yuan and the Ruble does not seem more or engaged in a clear trend but subject to strong price fluctuations under the influence of many political and economic events. Rigorous monitoring of current is necessary for investors who want to try their luck.

Housing Bubble is going to burst in China!

For the last few months the financial analysts fore saw a financial crunch in China and their predictions were come to alive and now China is facing the beginning of the credit crunch now and it will accelerate further. According to the sources in China, most of the real estate developers owe billions of Yuan from the Banks and individuals which leads in turn to Bankruptcy.

Usually the defaults to the bank loans and bankruptcies are quite common but the quantity of amount borrowed as loan by the realtors in China caused the panic. The Chinese News service reported that Zhejiang and Xingrun real estates over 2.4 billion to Banks and 1.1 billion Yuan to private investors. Subsequent to these the real estate sector of the Shanghai stock exchange fell down by one percent

While some analysts are trying to reassure by stating that there will be no domino effect, it certainly begs to believe, but nothing is less certain ... Others point out, however, that real estate developers active in the Zhejiang region face serious difficulties last year, battered by intense speculation, including Ningbo and Wenzhou, two cities that have seen property prices strongly fall.

China's real estate market is showing signs of slowing since the end of last year, mainly because of measures taken by the authorities to contain prices. Many experts also believe that the failure to pay Chaori Solar, occurred on March 7, is related to the Chinese authorities' desire to impose greater rigor in the functioning of credit channels.

Another notable element according to banking and industry sources, many banks have reduced up to 20% of their loans to certain industries. They are worried due to the financial health of these sectors, which tends to be oversized in China.

In September 2013, the Chinese central bank had said for his part that the loans granted in August in the Middle Kingdom had almost doubled in a month, reaching 1.570 billion Yuan. But even more serious element is only 45% of them are bank loans and the majority of loans are informal credit (shadow banking), which already concerned at the highest point to the analysts.

In June 2013, already, the rating agency Fitch indicated that a bursting of a credit bubble unprecedented in the history of the modern world could explode in China.

The Chinese interbank market, on which financial institutions lend money daily , was facing a severe shortage of liquidity,. Chinese Central Bank had injected 17 billion Yuan (2.8 billion Euros) in the banking system.

In February 2013, we had already talked about our fears of analysts. These are alarming excessive growth of bank loans to the private sector, and the loans outside the formal sector were more and more and went up and difficult to repay. These lead to the high level of bad loans held by Chinese Banks.

Hence the Monetary authorities and Chinese policies now wish to terminate the very rapid credit growth in recent years. A situation that pushes the government to "clean up" the banking market, closing the valve to riskier institutions, a policy may lead some into bankruptcy.                                        

                                                                                                     (to be continued)

Moody’s Raise The Prospect Of EU and Maintains AAA rating

The rating agency Moody's announced on Friday in a renewed optimism for the finances of the European Union (EU), including pointing out the “decrease " risk to the debt crisis in the Euro area. The U.S. agency, which evaluates the creditworthiness of debt issuers, first confirmed the triple "AAA" assigned to the European Union, the maximum score that allows theory to borrow at lower cost in market. It does not, however, stop there and moved from "negative” to "stable" perspective of the EU, indicating that it was considering lowering the rating most in the medium term.

Criticized for its competitors to errors of judgment during the 2007-2008 financial crisis, Moody and seems to embody the improvement on the Old Continent, and more specifically in the Euro area which emerged from a long recession in mid -2013. In its statement, the agency asserts that the risks to the Euro area “declined" to reduce the pressure, the quality of financial assets in the region and on the creditworthiness of the whole of the Union.

Supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Union had to come to the rescue of several countries in the Euro zone (Greece, Ireland , Portugal, Cyprus ) by bailing with billions of Euros in loans between 2010 and 2011 to avoid bankruptcy. Ireland was the first to overcome the international financial assistance in December and will soon be joined by Portugal. According to the agency, the risks that these two countries fail to repay their loans to the relief fund of the EU “decreased”. In support of its decision, Moody's also cites “improving the solvency “of key member states of the European Union, which had been involved in these large bailouts.

In recent weeks, the agency has identified "negative” to “stable" outlook from several European countries still enjoying the “AAA" rating including Germany and the Netherlands. Moody's was also more optimistic for countries hit hard by the debt crisis as Italy and Spain, which benefited from a bank recapitalization plan. The rating of the EU would be particularly sensitive to changes which could affect the top four contributors to the European Union, including France.

In its statement, the agency does not curiously referred to Greece, which is the epicenter of the debt crisis in the Euro area, while the country is still under financial infusion and continues to worry its international creditors. The EU and IMF blocked a new loan in the country since mid-2013 on the grounds that Athens refuses to make further cuts in its public finances. In summer 2011, the United States had been stripped of their triple-A by Standard and Poor's but had nevertheless continued to borrow from financiers in the markets at historically low rates.

Wall Street Shaken By The Ukrainian Crisis Ends Down

Wall Street finished in the red on Friday as investors fearing an escalation of tensions around the Ukrainian crisis since the absence of diplomatic agreement between Russia and the West hence the Dow Jones dropped 0.27 % and the NASDAQ 0.35%. According to final results, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 43.22 points and the NASDAQ, dominated by technology lost 15.02 points. Indices fell late in the session after reaching equilibrium stay around for much of the day. Peter Cardillo of Rockwell Global Capital told that obviously the United States failed to prevent the holding of a referendum in the Crimea Sunday and we could end up with a complicated situation on Monday.

The inhabitants of the Ukrainian peninsula must decide if they want to separate from Kiev to attach to Moscow. In the days before the election, the U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in London have failed to find a amicable solution after two weeks of intense diplomatic activities. Indices were also weakened in early trading by two indicators on lackluster U.S. economy, namely a slight decline in producer prices in the U.S. in February and surprise morale of U.S. household’s fall in March.

The impact of these figures, however, remained limited because their weakness is attributed to bad weather mentioned by Christopher Low of FTN Financial. On the values front, Yahoo! closed up 0.99% at $ 37.6, benefiting from news reports on the arrival of the Chinese Wall Street giant Alibaba e -commerce, which he is a minority shareholder. The General Mills, which has published quarterly forecasts lower expectations, lost 2.43% to 49.77 dollars. The automaker GM remained unchanged at $ 34.09. A consumer protection agency said Thursday that some of the recently recalled by the automaker models had a problem with airbag involved in 303 deaths. Liberty Media, one of the holdings of U.S. billionaire John Malone, jumped 7.22% to 135.25 dollars.

The group said Thursday that he would take full control of U.S. satellite radio Sirius XM (2.08 % to 3.44 dollars), which is already the majority shareholder. Banking stocks were in the red. The U.S. agency guarantees bank deposits has launched legal action against several of them for manipulation of Libor interbank rate, including JPMorgan (-1.08 % to 56.80 dollars), Citigroup (-0 95% at $ 46.88) or Bank of America (-2.10 % to 16.80 dollars). The bond market, considered safer than stocks and popular with investors in times of uncertainty, closed slightly higher. The yield on 10-year Treasury fell to 2.645 % against 2.653 % Thursday evening and the 30-year 3.587 % against 3.601 % on Friday.

Iran-Pakistan pipeline unviable

While Pakistan has asked Iran for 2 billion dollars to fund its own portion of a pipeline could not be more strategic , ignoring the U.S. sanctions , a recent report now lets hear the Iran Pakistan pipeline would not viable in the state , saying that a review of the conditions necessary. The report by the Institute of Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI ) on the pipeline - report " Rethinking the energy equation of Pakistan" - and says that since the price of purchased gas for the project is linked to prices of crude oil, the country is in this case openly ignoring the dynamics of the energy sector and the development process cost.

The Institute explains and insisting the most unfortunate side of this situation. Since that the United States now paved the way for the implementation of the pipeline project through a softening of sanctions against Iran, the new report says the gas supply agreement should be renegotiated, including on tariff part, otherwise deal a fatal blow to the country's economy. According to calculations made by the authors of the report, in the present state of things, the Iran- Pakistan pipeline should not be allowed to resolve energy problems of Pakistan and rather equivalent to a bailout. The reporters urged Islamabad to renegotiate the import of natural gas earlier price.

As a reminder, Pakistan has a production capacity of 24 000 MW combined electricity, but cannot currently reach this level because of natural gas supply problem. The country is indeed currently facing a decline in natural gas production, a problem even more crucial that domestic demand has more than doubled. To address this shortage, service stations selling compressed natural gas (CNG), low-cost fuel used by taxis, buses, motorcycles and motorists of the middle class will be closing soon. The quantity thus saved should serve the demand for home heating during the winter.

At present, Pakistan limited already open pumps few days a week, causing long queues and irritation of the population movements. Under the terms of an agreement in 2013 with Iran, Pakistan should import term in 2014, 21.5 million cubic meters of gas per day from its neighbor Iran, all on for 20 years, and can be extendable to additional 5 years. Note that the pipeline - including the cost of construction is estimated at $ 7.5 billion - about 1,800 km which connect Iran's South Pars gas field - located offshore - and Nawabchah, north of Karachi, Pakistan's economic hub.

The Iranian public television Irib said in March that the construction of 900 km of the Iranian part of the pipeline was completed; adding that 780 km through Pakistani territory remained to be built. At that time, Iran had agreed to pay $ 500 million to Islamabad, one third of the estimated cost of the Pakistani portion. But Pakistan is currently facing financial problems in order to continue the construction of the particular section.

The case could take a significant extent in the coming months; Islamabad may be required to pay compensation to Tehran if Pakistan fails to complete by December 2014 part of the pipeline where it belongs, Pakistan has to pay one million dollars per day of delay. Tending the boom in Tehran, the Pakistani minister however said in early October that the time could be met if Iran had a hand in the portfolio. However, suggesting that the precious goods subsidies should be promptly put on the table quickly in order to ensure the availability of technical equipment necessary to complete the pipeline.

 At present, nearly 50 % of Pakistan's needs are met by natural gas; analysts also believe that the country should look forward to more innovative options, not just the use of energy sources non- conventional and alternative. The report regrets that the country has not taken any substantial degree to initiate the process to take advantage of the potential of shale gas.

Urging Pakistan to follow the example of India to maintain high economic growth. Regarding the issue of sanctions against Iran, it has recently been raised by the Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif , during his meeting with President Obama , but the authorities do not confirm or refute a possible softening of the position United States on the issue . Recall that the project, which emerged in the 1990s, has long been delayed, mainly because of pressure from the United States on Pakistan and India, which was initially involved in the IPI project (Iran - Pakistan - India).

 For a decade now, the United States has tried to link the file to the sanctions against the nuclear program of Iran, warning against the risks of the same order that could lead to a possible participation. Faced with these pressures, New Delhi withdrew from the project in 2009, arguing that the financial and security problems.

The European Sovereign Debt Crisis!

The financial crisis of 2007 caused a wide deleveraging among private agents developed and pushed the savings rate to rise, tipping the global economy into recession. Governments and central banks then intervened to prevent the collapse of the banking system and relaxed their cyclical policies to restore aggregate demand. The economic slowdown and the reaction of the public authorities have widened sharply public deficits, even though levels of public debt in the developed countries were already considered excessively high. This further deterioration of public finances has raised serious concerns about the ability of states to maintain their debt on a sustainable path. This is especially the countries of the euro zone that have crystallized concerns. Greece between the budget crisis in autumn 2009, and the sovereign bond yields rise sharply in Spain, Italy and Portugal in late 2010. Thus, interest rates, which had been a convergence in the past ten years with the European integration, begin to diverge, market making clear the distinction between state-member groups: on the one hand, those the "periphery" undergoing unsustainable increase in sovereign risk and on the other, those "core" that benefit from historically low interest rates. Countries experiencing the strongest market turmoil in sovereign debt have increased the fiscal austerity measures to restore confidence and reduce sovereign spreads.

 Other Member States have also adopted fiscal consolidation efforts to contain the contagion and prevent their own solvency are in doubt. In some countries, the change in sovereign risk premiums can however hardly be explained by changes in economic. If the debt and the deficit actually reached unsustainable levels in Greece, the fiscal situation in other countries threatened by the debt crisis was not more disastrous than that of the United States or the United Kingdom. In 2009, Spain respected the main Maastricht criteria for fiscal policy, since its public debt represented less than 60% of GDP. Italy certainly requires a budget adjustment to service its debt, but it should make the effort appeared modest as interest rates remained at a low level. Several authors have developed the idea that the sovereign debt crises, particularly the European countries could result from self-fulfilling expectations. In other words, the sustainability of public debt does not only depend on fundamentals (including the amount of the debt, the primary balance, etc. When investors fear for one reason or another the state has difficulties to cope with the burden of debt, they divest their sovereign bonds. These sales push interest rates higher and then the government could more be able to refinance its debt other than prohibitive rates. The liquidity crisis can then quickly degenerate into a solvency crisis. Indeed, the states will try to consolidate their public finances to restore market confidence. If the economy were initially in recession, austerity measures further depress activity, so they are likely to lead to a further increase in the debt to GDP ratio. With rising interest rates and contraction, states are finally forced to default on their debt. Thus, a State may become insolvent simply because investors fear default. They act indeed in such a way that the probability of default rises, even if their concerns were initially unfounded. If it happens, the default validates initial fears: expectations are proven "self-fulfilling." Ultimately, public debt is sustainable as creditors consider it as such. The economic literature formalizes this idea by emphasizing the existence of multiple equilibrium. These are particularly unstable in the presence of self-fulfilling expectations: a simple reversal of expectations is likely to tip the economy a good balance bad. However, a State may in principle difficult to use the central bank to reduce the risk of a liquidity crisis.

 Therefore, the member countries of the euro area, in essence, a greater chance to experience a crisis of sovereign debt that countries into debt in their own currency, even if they have more degraded public finances. The member states of the monetary union can indeed rely on a central bank to provide liquidity if it is missing. As such, they share the same vulnerability to crises of sovereign debt that developing countries that emit denominated in a foreign currency usually the U.S. dollar debt. When a liquidity crisis occurs in a monetary union, countries that lose market confidence the peripheral euro area countries meet in a bad equilibrium characterized by high interest rates and capital flight, as investors seek safer investments in the world. These countries are then capable of falling into recession as the high interest rates encourage their government to implement austerity plans. Conversely, countries that retain the confidence of the bond the core countries are maintained in a good balance: they receive cash flows from the periphery. These inflows exert a downward pressure on their interest rates and thus stimulate the economy. They find that increases in risk premiums that were observed in 2010 and 2011 occurred independently of changes in the ratio of public debt to GDP. Greece, however, is an exception, since the increase in the spread on its debt actually due to the deterioration of public finances. By cons, countries that do not belong to a currency area and that borrow in their own currency appear immunized against liquidity crises. They have indeed crossed the Great Recession without knowing a significant increase in their spread, even though some of them had ratios of public debt to GDP higher than in the euro area. .

So finally endorsing its role as lender of last resort to the States, the ECB seems to have managed to "break" the expectations and bring savings to a good balance. The announcement also seems to have been credible enough that the central bank did not have far to intervene in bond markets to stabilize interest rates. Since the crisis of sovereign debt in the euro zone is mainly due to the self-fulfilling expectations, the reaction of fiscal authorities appear absurd, dictated only by the emergency. The turmoil in the bond markets led all governments of the euro area to focus on fiscal consolidation at the expense of supporting the activity. While the public sector should continue spending to allow private agents to reduce debt, otherwise he immediately sought to consolidate its own balance sheet, which was subjected to powerful euro zone recessionary pressures.

Countries that have experienced the largest increases in spreads have implemented the most severe austerity measures. They then switched to a vicious spiral where the contraction and deterioration of the fiscal balance are mutually maintained. However, if there is a disconnection between risk premiums and the fundamentals, a policy aimed exclusively at improving fundamentals that is to reduce the burden of public debt may not be sufficient to contain the spread. The intervention of the ECB is against proved crucial in stabilizing the bond markets. Thus, not only the macroeconomic shock therapy that have inflicted the peripheral countries is very vain, but it has mostly contributed to the deterioration in public finances deteriorate the growth potential of their economies. However, economic growth is a key factor in the sustainability of public finances. The ECB intervention has certainly reduced the risk of self-fulfilling expectations, but the fundamentals are perhaps now sufficiently weakened that fears about the solvency of public finances are now justified.

Liquidity Trap

During the Great Recession, many central banks reduced their interest rates to historically low levels. However, the interest rate was good to be its zero point, it remained higher than the natural rate, that is to say, the nominal interest rate which closes the output gap and ensure price stability. However, once the zero lower bound is reached, the central bank may further cut its key interest rate, which exposes the economy to deflationary pressures and an increase in its unemployment rate. In such a situation called liquidity trap, where monetary policy is proving excessively restrictive fiscal authorities must necessarily intervene to counteract deflationary pressures. The finance managers adopt their next steps "unconventional" to make them more effective monetary policy. However, the Great Recession is different from previous episodes of liquidity trap, including the lost decade in Japan, that the phenomenon of liquidity trap this time has a global dimension. The United States, UK and the other Euro countries are the countries most closely linked by trade and financial linkages that have experienced the largest slowdown in crisis, bringing their monetary authorities to fix the interest rate to the nearest zero.
According to famous Economist, the appearance of liquidity traps in a context where markets for goods, services and capital are integrated internationally gives a new dimension to the dilemma highlighted by the literature in finance International (also called "impossible trinity" or "impossible trinity"). The traditional interpretation of this phenomenon, a country cannot simultaneously ensure the opening of capital markets, fixed exchange rates and monetary policy autonomy. If achieved two goals, the third becomes unattainable. However, even if the exchange rate is flexible and fully opens capital markets, monetary policy loses its effectiveness in a liquidity trap. If the domestic economy is a powerful external shock depressing domestic demand, the zero lower bound is likely to constrain its own monetary policy. Financial markets play a key role in the spread of the phenomenon of liquidity trap a country to another.
The economic literature have suggested that the introduction of capital controls to reduce the risk that a country will suffer destabilizing capital inflows: inflows are indeed likely to fuel an unsustainable credit expansion, the formation of bubbles assets and excessive currency appreciation, especially in emerging countries. The introduction of capital controls makes monetary policy more effective in reducing the risk that the economy switches into a liquidity trap.

Aggressive stimulus efforts by Abe given strong boost to Japan

The expected increase of 3.6% after 4.1% annualized GDP and the private consumption expected to have risen 0.5% Reversal expected business investment. The growth of the Japanese economy is expected to reach 3.6% annualized in April-June, a Reuters survey showed a third consecutive quarter of expansion that would reflect the impact of increasing net policies "reflationary" Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The figure released on Monday morning in Tokyo should also strengthen the government's desire to raise the VAT next year, even if the implementation of this project politically sensitive involves many other factors, economists note. The second quarter should certainly have marked a slight slowdown in growth after the 4.1% annualized from January to March, driven mainly by household consumption, but the April-June statistics should show a recovery in exports and business investment, they add. "The growth is balanced with a strong domestic demand and external demand. This is a sign that the impact of political Abe is becoming wider," said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. Compared to the first quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have risen 0.9% in April-June, foreign demand are contributing 0.2 shows the Reuters survey.

Private consumption is expected to grow by 0.5% a quarter to the next, which would mark a slowdown after growth of 0.9% in January-March. But business investment, which fell by 0.3% in the first three months of the year, is expected to rebound by 0.7%. Abe's government plans to raise the VAT rate of 5% to 8% in April and 10% in October 2015, as part of efforts to try to contain the public debt, which exceeds 200% of GDP, the highest ratio of the major industrialized countries. This doubling in a year and a half, which is the most ambitious reform of the Japanese taxation engaged for decades, obviously poses risks to the consumer and more broadly for the recovery, as it may curb spending. Abe said he would adopt in the fall a final decision on the matter, in particular according to the changing conditions. Until then, it will be especially aware of the revised second quarter GDP, which is scheduled for publication on September 9. A Reuters survey shows that most private sector economists are in favor of raising the VAT according to the original schedule, considering that the economy can now absorb the impact.

On Monday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has called Tokyo to implement the project, considering it was a "necessary first step" to solve the fiscal problems of Japan. But even if GDP figures are as strong as expected and confirmed next month, Shinzo Abe will take a decision after studying the findings of several studies it has commissioned on the expected impact of the reform explain several sources. Careful, the prime minister also asked his staff to consider alternatives to this reform. "A good GDP figures could reinforce the scenario of a VAT increase in the initial project. But the final decision rests with Abe and he alone, “said Yoshiki Shinke. "It will be more important than past GDP figures is how the economy will react if VAT increases indeed. At this stage, it is very difficult to predict."

The Future Economic Rebalancing Of The World

In 2017, no European country will be included in the top ten contributors to global economic growth. The emerging economies will account for fifty percent of global production of goods and services. According to IMF, in the year 2018 the proportion will increase to 55%. And this is only the continuation of a trend that began there more than thirty years and represents a consolidation in the global economic consequences. As noted by the chief economist of Goldman Sachs who invented the concept and acronym BRIC's in the 1980s when the growth of the Chinese economy was even more important today, a growth rate of China's economy 10% was less important to the world that U.S. growth by 1%. In 2013, the rates of equivalence are 8% and 4%. Today, financial markets are equally concerned of China slowdown as the U.S. recovery. No wonder that, as growth in emerging was much stronger than the rest of the world, and that their standard of living per capita has steadily catching up with the seven most industrialized countries. By the mid-1990s, countries such as Germany and Italy had dropped from the list of top ten countries with the highest growth rates. While in the 1980s, the United States accounted for 30% of global growth and Europe 20%; in 2017 no European country will included in the top ten contributors to global growth. Europe as a whole no longer and will contribute only 6% of it, while India and China will contribute to almost 50%. Even more surprising is the speed at which occurs rebalancing and this because of the masses in. The economic transformation and urbanization of China occur at a scale with the population is one hundred times greater than that of Great Britain at its early industrialization and a speed ten times. Thus the Chinese momentum is 1000 times that of Britain 200 years ago. This rebalancing is a return to the state of the world that existed in the early nineteenth century. But this is only small consolation because it is perceived as a stall and undoubtedly contributes to the gloom in US, as in the rest of Europe.

China takes control of its Currency

The Chinese government has recently reaffirmed its commitment to lead a prudent monetary policy. A message was signaled to all banks and other Chinese companies and foreign business partners. After a recent meeting, the Chinese government issued a statement which reads: "China will continue its prudent monetary policy in ensuring growth of credit to the real economy, the agricultural sector and small businesses." "Will continue", says the text, and in fact, the direction is not new. Publicly adopted in 2010, it is associated with a budget "proactive" policy, in force since 2008. On the issue of the exchange rate of the Yuan, the Chinese government encourages the continuation of the current rate "to a basically stable level." So if the Yuan is revalued, it will be a movement of low amplitude. Already at the end of last year, the new administration had announced their resolution to "expand wisely the amount of social financing to ensure a moderate emissions growth of loans." The Chinese economy is facing a double challenge: The first and foremost one is to maintain a growth rate of around 7% to ensure the increase of the population's standard of living and inflation under control, and the second one is to set right their export market which was seriously damaged by the European debt crisis which considerably reduced its export markets. To answer the western financial crisis, the Chinese launched in 2008, a multi-year recovery plan 4000 billion Yuan. They slowed and the slowdown the growth of their economy, but still fear that the financial crisis in their main customers being turned into an economic crisis, if the growth rate falls more below. The temptation is strong in these conditions, increasing the money supply. They have repeatedly reduced the benchmark interest rates and reserve requirements for commercial banks. But then tip the risk of inflation, which is not only a malfunction of the economy, but also the source of popular discontent, and thus a political danger. This is why banks are expected to deal with the "real economy", rather than seeking sources of short-term profit, spontaneous tendency of any financial institution. In this framework, they will be encouraged to provide loans. They will not be to fuel property speculation. The message is clear to European countries that China needs to export; it has no incentive to engage in any trade war. But it will remain master of its currency.

The Corporate Bankruptcies and The Crisis

The real crisis, the corporate bankruptcies are the real crisis and it is the creative destruction. Like it or not, the real victims of the crisis in Europe are definitely businesses. The loss of business in the Euro zone increase indeed 21% in 2013, to return to a growth rate moderate 7% in 2014. These bankruptcies are concerned and unfortunately synonymous with soaring unemployment and a real deindustrialization. Since the record figures of 2009, the waves of loss, of the United States to China, passing throughout the Europe, concentrated in areas with erratic tax incentives, such as construction and services. Once the boost is flown, numbers of companies were no longer profitable. Today, the shock wave is more fundamental: the sharp slowdown in consumer spending in Europe, or at half the exports for Asia. In Europe, the areas of distribution, furniture, consumer electronics, and automotive, and are strongly affected. This industrial Darwinism seems to be the swell of the year 2013, still marked by the credit crunch. But the induced effects are numerous: for example in Asia, companies see their market melt like snow in the sun and the overcapacity problem. This economic turbulence with a number of businesses created which also increases in many countries could it is a synonym for renewal? Economic entropy can be conducive to a new beginning, if we are to believe the evolutionary hypothesis of Schumpeter. The undertakings least well adapted and especially the least innovative way to let those who are reinventing themselves and meet new needs. "The perennial gale" Schumpeter, after the storm of 2009 and the economic winter it starts to make a lot. And yet ... The needs are there, in sectors with high added value, intensive skills, human capital and social capital, driven by research and innovation and entrepreneurship. So, of course the news is bad with soaring business failures and accelerated payment risk, while margins are already weakened. But, is it better to jump back? The answer is “Maybe”. It is also necessary that the guidelines are taken on supporting innovation, the business environment, or incentives to take care of seedlings, otherwise incubators will also be decimated.

Europe needs long-term financing!

The urgency for Europe to reconnect with smart, sustainable and inclusive growth, which allows Europe to create jobs and, based on the areas in which it has a competitive advantage, gain market competitiveness world. To achieve this, it must meet investment needs large-scale and long-term. To finance these investments in the long term, governments and businesses, regardless of size, should have access to a long-term, predictable funding. The ability of the economy to make available such long-term funding also depends on the financial sector's ability to effectively provide users and relevant investment, effectively and efficiently, saving governments, businesses and households. This provision may be indirect, such as through banks, insurers and pension funds, either directly, via the capital markets. The long-term funding must be secured in such a way that supports structural reforms and help get the economy back on a path of sustainable growth. The financial crisis has reduced the capacity of the European financial sector to channel savings into investment long-term needs. It is important to ask whether in Europe, traditionally high dependence with regard to banking intermediation to finance long-term investments could be replaced by a more diversified system leaving more room for direct funding by capital markets and the involvement of institutional investors and alternative financial markets.

The task of ensuring the existence of an effective and efficient intermediation for long-term financing is complex and multidimensional. Recently, the Commission adopted a Green Paper on the financing of the European economy that includes public consultation. Its purpose is to launch a wide debate on how to increase the supply of long-term funding and diversify the financial intermediation system for long-term investment in Europe. The answers to the questions will enable the Commission to deepen the analysis of barriers to long-term financing to determine what policy measures could help to overcome them. The whole process could lead to different results and, in some areas it may be necessary to introduce new rules or modify existing ones, while in others, the role of the EU would to foster better coordination and promotion of best practices, or to provide specific measures to certain Member States in the framework of the European community.

The hurdles Fed has to overcome!

The persistent weakness of the U.S. economy - where deleveraging public and private sectors continues - has led to a stubbornly high unemployment and a lower than normal growth. The effects of austerity - a sharp increase in taxes and a sharp drop in public spending since the beginning of the year - further undermine economic performance. Indeed, recent data have silenced some officials of the Federal Reserve, who hinted that the Fed could start out the third round of quantitative easing, which is currently underway for a period indefinite. Given the low growth, high unemployment which fell only because discouraged workers are now leaving the workforce and inflation well below the goal of the Fed is not the time to begin to constrain liquidity. The problem is that liquidity injections by the Fed are not generating credit to finance the real economy, but to stimulate borrowing and risk-taking in financial markets. The bond sloppy risky under contractual commitments vague and excessively low interest rates is increasing, the stock market hit new highs, despite the slowdown in growth and the money goes mass to emerging markets high yield. Even the periphery of the Euro area has wall of liquidity triggered by the Fed, the Bank of Japan and other major central banks.

Because interest on state of the United States, Japan, the UK, Germany and Switzerland to absurdly low levels bond yields, investors are in a global search for yield. It is perhaps too early to say that many risky assets have reached bubble levels, and the levels of debt and risk-taking in financial markets have become excessive. However, the reality is that it is likely that credit bubbles and asset / equity form in the next two years, due to the accommodative U.S. monetary policy. The Fed has indicated that QE3 would continue until the labor market has improved enough probably early 2014, providing an interest rate of 0% until unemployment has dropped to less than 6.5%. Even when the Fed will begin to raise interest rates at some point in 2015, it will proceed slowly. In the previous tightening cycle that began in 2004, the Fed needed two years to normalize the policy rate. This time, the unemployment rate and household debt and public are much higher. A rapid normalization - such as realized in the space of a year in 1994 - would cause a crash in asset markets and the risk of a hard landing for the economy. But if financial markets already tend to bubble now, imagine the situation in 2015, when the Fed will begin to tighten its terms, and in 2017 at the earliest, when the Fed has completed the process of tightening. The last time interest rates have summers too low for too long during 2001-2004, and the normalization of rate thereafter was too slow, which had formed a huge credit bubble, housing and stock markets.

 We know the end of this film, and we may be ready to see more. The weakness of the real economy and the labor market, as well as high debt ratios, suggest the need to exit the monetary stimulus slowly. But a slow output may create a bubble of credit and asset as important as the previous one, if not more. The search for stability in the real economy, it seems, could again lead to financial instability. Some at the Fed - as chairman Ben Bernanke and Vice Chairman Janet Yellen - argue that policymakers can pursue two objectives: the Fed will raise interest rates to slow economic stability, while preventing financial instability (bubbles and credit created by the high liquidity assets and low interest rates) through supervision and macro-prudential regulation the financial system. In other words, the Fed will use regulatory instruments to control credit growth, risk taking and debt. But another faction of the Fed - led by Governors Jeremy Stein and Daniel Tarullo - argues that macro-prudential tools have not been tested, and that the debt limit in a part of the financial market only pushes liquidity elsewhere. Indeed, the Fed regulates banks, so that the liquidity and debt migrate to the informal banking system if bank regulation is stricter. As a result, Stein and Tarullo argued that the Fed has only one instrument of interest rates to tackle all the problems of the financial system. But if the Fed has only one effective instrument - interest rates - the two objectives of economic and financial stabilities cannot be pursued simultaneously.

Either the Fed continues the primary purpose of keeping rates low for longer and to standardize very slowly, in which case a huge credit bubble and assets would form in time, either the Fed focuses on the prevention of instability financial and increases interest rates much faster than the low growth and high unemployment have also requested, thus stopping an already sluggish recovery. Exit policies QE and zero interest rates the Fed will be treacherous: a too quick exit would cause a crash in the real economy, while a slow start out by creating a huge bubble and then cause a crash the financial system. If the output can be operated successfully partisan compromise Fed is more likely to create bubbles.

The Real Estate Bubble Bursts Netherlands!

The Netherlands saw their housing bubble burst. For years the country's banks have granted mortgages without sufficient guarantees coupled with tax breaks from the government. The German newspaper Der Spiegel highlights the weaknesses of the Dutch economy, rising unemployment, reduced consumption and GDP that was stalled. Der Spiegel believes that these are the consequences of the bursting of the housing bubble in Netherlands. In addition, institutions financed more than 100% of the value of the property and tax breaks could go up to 52% of mortgage interest paid. The chart below are the property price increase: