Showing posts with label market cycle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label market cycle. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Market Cycles Vs Economical Cycles

The indices help the financial growth of listed companies; indices give us indications of future economic cycle. Therefore, the market operates in advance. In summary, the market cycle has a lead time of one or two quarters on the real economy. The graph above illustrates the gap between the economic cycle and the market cycle yellow blue. For long-term investors, it helps to have an idea of the sectors that beat the market during different periods.

In times of prosperity (middle-top bull), you have the total: robust growth, falling unemployment, rising wages, the credit facility. The technology sector, basic industry and capital goods will cost to investors.

 In times of crisis (early top-bear), we arrive at an inflection point. More money circulates with wage increases and low interest rates. Therefore, inflation appears like toothpaste out of its tube, which will cause a general decline in consumption. During this period, the non-cyclical sectors such as the food sector perform well. Finally, precious metals, energy and utilities benefit to the mortification of the purchasing power of households, inflationary effects.

In a recession or depression (early-late bear), households are deleveraging and they consume little, companies are restructuring according to demand and credit activity is scarce. So, we are in a vicious circle and despair reign. At stock, investors are in general, sector based discrimination favoring defensive sectors such as sustainable consumption and unsustainable and health.

 During recovery (late early bull-bear), returns for hope everything is done to break this impasse whatever means: growth is back, the activity is not shrinking consumption and restarts more beautiful. The sectors that will benefit from this new momentum are finance, health and consumer always.

 Hope this article will help you in enhancing your knowledge in the future your future stock market investments.

Friday, December 11, 2009

Will be US Dollar replaced by Euro or Chinese currency?

For the past six months Dollar has been depreciating against all major currencies. Against Indian Rupee it depreciated from 52 to 46 Rupees. It depreciated against Euro and it depreciated against Major Asian currencies.
There is already a talk among certain coutries like Russia, China, France and etc, to replace US Dollar as World Reserve Currency. They want to trade oil in some other currencies except USD.
The US Economy is growing at a very slower pace for the past ten years when compared to the other Major developing Countries like China and India. The growth rate is likely to be slow for another 5 years in USA.
Even the once mighty Europeon Countries are no longer growing as Asian Countries. The continueous lesser growth or no growth in US and Europeon Economy would surely put China in the Drivers seat in world affairs and World Economy.
The Chinese growth in the past decade is phenomenal. It is vast a country and it is almost equal to the size of USA. Its population is more than 4 times the population of US and their only disadvantage is English, the language spoken and understood in most part of world. Even in that area, they are improving day by day.
Going by the vast potential of Chinese in Military and Economic Might, Chinese currency may replace US Dollar in another  Five or Ten years in the Future.

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Market Cycles

I have observed that any free markets in the world are behaving cyclically. Careful examination of the time period taken by the market in each legs reveal that they are behaving rythematically.

It seems world Equity markets are moving in 33 year cycle. A new bull market is started in Dow Jones Index in 1950 and it continued for 1983 and the current leg is likely to terminate 2016.

Whenever equity markets are in last phase of a cycle, Bullion markets are behaving in opposite direction of the equity Market. So, Equit Markets are in bull phase if Gold Markets are in bear phase and Gold marekts are in bull phase, when Equity Markets are in bear Phase.

The 1970s Bull Market in the International Equity Markets were lead by Japan. The 1980s and 1990s Bull Market in Equity Markets are lead by south East Asian Countries. The 2000s Bull Market is lead by India and China. So the next bull market is likley to be lead by some other new countries.

The smart Investors should always look for the right Market to invest and the right marktet to withdraw their funds. It will not be profitable for anyone to hold on to their same investments in all period.

Market cycles will help you to time the market at appropriate time. So do study the Market cylces and take investment decisions based on the study for profitable Investments.