Will The Bull Run Continue in Dow Jones?

The US Stock Index Dow Jones made an all time high of 14,279 on October 2007 and it was followed by a crash towards 6440 in march 2009. The crash to that level was followed by a rally towards 11000. Today it has made a high of 11038. Now the Million Dollar question is, will Dow move past 14000 in the near term.

Fundamentally speaking, though the financial situation is under control, it has not fully recovered from the recession. Though some indicators are improving, it really doesn’t reflect the growth we have seen 3 years back. The fundamentals have not improved as the stock prices. When everybody is bullish on Markets and Economy, a major top is likely to form. The same situation is prevailing now also. Every where we can see optimism. Nobody is talking of badtimes which has happened only one year back.

Technically speaking, the crash in 2008 is followed by rally in 2009 which is very quick when compared to the previous rallies. It means it is V shaped recovery. These type of vast price movements are always seen in Market bottoms and Market Tops. Since the present volatility is taking place in a Top area, the present technical situation is better construed as a top which indicates, the present rally is likely to lose steam in coming weeks. Going by the technicals, it indicates Dow is unlikely to cross 14000 for another 3 to 5 years.

Retail Investors should be carful at this time. They should stick to the law, ‘Buy low and Sell high’. Right now the we have to sell high. The impending top is around the corner. Be prepared for the event. Don’t get buoyed by the Euphoria in the Markets.

Terrorism and development

If you look at the countries which are affected by terrorism, it is evident that those countries are not developed yet. Terrorism is caused by religious belief and social disparity. In developed countries, we rarely see terrorism except because of religion.

In Europe, Spain and England are affected by religious terrorism. But none of the European Countries is affected by terrorism that is borne out of social disparity. This is because, the development in these Countries are homogenous and their society is not separated by casted and creed.

It is not the case in India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal or Afghanistan. The society in these countries are divided by caste, creed and religion. That is why we see Maoist struggle in India and Nepal and bomb blasts in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The main problem in these countries is the social disparity the communities. It is wide open in these countries.

That is why the internal clashes are happening frequently in these countries. If the disparity between the communities in this countries are reduced then automatically the social unrest would come to lower level. Instead of decimating the terrorist, if the Governments in these Countries decimate the social disparity, the menace of Terrorism would be rooted out completely. But no Government seems to move in this direction.

Digital Will

We are living in the Digital world, most of our business, financial and social communications and its developments are through the internet only. These digital contacts and communication are called us digital Assets or Virtual Assets. In other words, the emails, passwords electronic documents, websites and Blogs, other files either in Web or in Computer is called as Digital Assets.

Suppose the Virtual or the Digital asset holder dies unfortunately all the virtual assets could be frozen, since it could not be accessed by his successor or his legal heirs. Further if the successor wants to access the digital documents and he approaches the court he has to submit the succession certificate and many other legal identity and password which is a cumbersome process. Here I wish to remind you the password are subject to change more frequently. And if the legal heir approaches Google, Yahoo or any other service provider, how they can be judge the claim?

Here the Digital Will helps. Digital Will is an electronic document similar to that of a Physical Will in other words is a Will for a Digital Assets. Unlike a paper will Digital Will, will be stored on a safe and secured service and can be updated easily. Now there are more online service providers are available with competitive tariff structure. As this is a new concept they are now structuring a common procedure to less the pain of the legal heir.

Last but not the least word, there are so many legal issues are there in between Last Will and Digital Will. In England Last Will cannot be replaced by a Digital Will.

Which is the Personality that best suits trading?

Trading is a mind game. Having said that, each trading person has different mindset or personality. The most important factors that decide the personality is Emotion and Logic of the Brain. Some take decisions emotionally, and some take it logically, while some take it partly emotional and partly logical. Some have a very disciplined mind and some don’t have that mindset.

So, which one is the best personality to trade in Stock or Commodities Market? Once a trading Guru in USA, trained both ordinary civilians and some former US Marine Soldiers. He taught them to trade in stock markets using Technical Analysis and Fundamental analysis. He trained them in short term trading in Futures and Options. He taught the students where to book profit and where to cut loss of a trading positions. After some period of time, the Guru asked the students to trade on their own in real time with real money.

The results are some what astonishing. The former Marines performed well in the trading than the other students. The Guru analyzed the results and come to know that the former Marines are most disciplined and they followed the trading rules correctly with out fail. That is, because of the discipline they used to follow in military training.

This gives the conclusion that those who follow the trading discipline correctly without any emotion is likely to trade better in speculative Markets.

Are you the one who trades with discipline and logically?

Should Governments do business?

In India, when it got independence from the British, the Government was in the need of building Industries and Business to promote industrialization in the Country. At that time it didn’t have many Entrepreneurs and Industrialists. So Government took the initiatives and started many companies and Industries in all sectors. At that time, the Government is following a socialistic type of Government. So at that instead of encouraging new Entrepreneurs, Government itself has started all the Industries.

Those industries which were started by Government started running successfully and it contributed to the Industrial revolution of the Country. But as the Country progressed towards 1980 and 1990, there was a steady decline in their performance. The Public Sector Undertakings had started to behave like Government departments and that was why their performances declined during this period. But at the time, lot of private companies have been started and lot of new Entrepreneurs have grown in private sector of this Country.

This led to fair growth in the Industrial development of India. But the performances of many Government companies continued to decline. Some companies had gone sick at that time. And they became a burden for Government. After 1990 , the Government started disinvesting these Companies to private sector and they once again started performing well.

In USA, except finance and defense, every other industry is privatized. Because of this from 2008 many banks are failing in USA. But in India, non of the Banks failed.

I believe a Economy which is partially Market, and Partially socialistic, is good for any developing Country.