The Business Plan Part. II

Starting a business is of three main stages, each having a dimension iterative

• The first step is, according to the objectives and motivations that have led to a project to refine its knowledge of the environment in which the company operates, with an approach also known as SWOT EMOFF (Environment / Strengths / Weaknesses / Threats / Opportunities) and requires gathering information about clients, competitors, suppliers, regulators, and the key skills and resources available to the company or must have.

• The second step is to refine the project in terms of Key Success Factors (CSF) and variables or fields of Strategic Actions (VAS).

• The third focuses on the means (technical, human and financial) necessary and action plans from which the Business Plan is the subject of a valuation, and financial economic quantification.

The document that materializes this research, this reflection, the choices that result, the main actions and associated resources is called Business Plan. It has 2 parts:

• The first part, called pitch, is devoted to the arguments needed to validate and sell his project. This part of nature "literary", must be rigorously prepared to highlight the economic consistency of the project.

• The second part corresponds to a financial overview of the measures and Covering the project's economic viability.

The business plan

Starting a business is not only starting a business alone,  it involves raising  funds, developing  an business activity, diversifying it, transmitting , merging, adjusting, developing, negotiating and  communicating your dream business. There are many reasons for embarking on the adventure of developing a business plan.

Creating a project is not only the record of business plan alone but it also includes a financial component and a pitch.

As for investment, in financial terms, it can be defined as "sacrifice resources in hopes to draw more in the future," which indicates three key concepts: duration, cost and risk. Aspects profitability and financial flexibility are at the heart of the case. They underlie substantive issues such as: How to appreciate and take into account the reversibility of a project? Is there a business model in the business plan?

The financial calculations do not remain a simple decision support, and that beyond the virtues and pitfalls, advice and methodology presented in the Business Plan has many facets. And above all the business is a script of a wonderful story and which should be directed by the creator himself. It is the expression of a chosen strategy to be shared more or less detail, among its shareholders, bankers, employees and other stakeholders of the company if necessary.

The medium-term loans

The duration of the medium-term loans is of 2 to 7 years for the financial investments, and they are granted either by a single bank or a bank in competition with a specialized. There must be an association between the period of funding and the life of the asset financed.  The financial borrowing duration should not be longer than the duration of its use as medium-term financing. If it is so it should be avoided in all cases. Hence it is applicable to investments such as average length of vehicles and technology, and more generally, to most goods and means of production of the business. The loan period must be taken into account to the financial possibilities of the business. That is, during this period, company must not only ensure the repayment of the loan, but also interest payments.

In all cases, financial backing by a medium-term loan does not cover the entire investment, it is logical that the business wants to equip them to make an effort for the flow of money. The percentage of the investment program financed by a medium-term credit is generally between 50% and 75% of total investment.

The granting of loan for a medium term from the merchant banker is subject to a broad study because the risk comes from the period and volume of the loan. The merchant banker must study the market impact of the introduction of this equipment and provide the financial situation of the business, given its new production and also because of its new charges. This require  to develop a further plan for the funding that will parallel the total expenses and resources of the borrower, and more over in order to identify future opportunities for the company to meet its debts and thereby ensure a good outcome of operation of credit

Financial planning

Any company needs to invest for its creation of its new development activity. That is to say, new development activity means of production. Besides the flow of funds of its own source, the use of bank loans is the most commonly used practice.

To production every firm need raw materials, labor, and  also a variety of equipment like Land, buildings, manufacturing equipment, etc.. ; All these devices are called the production tool.

Whether for the creation or for development needs every company needs to invest. Once established, they will allow the company to produce more or better conditions, which will enable it to generate additional profits.

A company can finance its investments from internal funds, without recourse to external capital. This solution has the advantage for the company to play independent, but it has the disadvantage of limiting the company in its investment opportunities and the expansion of the company.

Therefore, the use of bank loans is the most commonly used practice because it is  easy and possible way  for almost all small and medium enterprises. However, we must recognize that this funding has disadvantages for the business. It makes the company dependent on the varieties of the distribution of credit (i.e. amount, cost, time, etc.) And the policy adopted by its banker that is choice of risk guarantees, etc.  Among the solutions offered by banks, there is the classic credit medium or long term.

Constraints of financial investments

A company has a priority, to invest its own resources. If its own sources are insufficient, the company must raise its fund as equity. The conditions of funding of productive investment depend on specific characteristics to the financial situation of the company.


 Analysis on the financial investment has long been conducted in a theoretical framework defined by the Modigliani-Miller theorem (1958). According to this theorem, it is immaterial for a company to finance its investments through debt, issuance of shares, or retention of profits. This theorem is only valid under very restrictive conditions, which in practice are not checked: the hypothesis of perfect capital markets, lack of conflict between managers and shareholders, and the absence of distortions and taxation. The strict application conditions of this theorem led to his questioning, and guided the researchers to the idea of ​​an optimal capital structure of companies. Companies are advised to go into debt to take advantage of the leverage and the tax benefit associated with debt. But the growth of debt poses a risk of failure increased. The company must decide between the benefits of debt and the cost of default risk.


The borrowing capacity of a company depends much on its capacity that it can offer, and market conditions (level of interest rates). The level of profits and the level of indebtedness of the company are the two key indicators to assess the repayment capacity of the borrower. In this way, investment is determined by the level of profits and debt.


Economic research highlights the wide diversity of investment behavior of firms. This heterogeneity is largely explained by the different financing terms offered to them. The variable profit rate and debt ratio have explanatory power and real investment by small businesses, but not for the investment of large groups. Small firms have less collateral to offer banks, and therefore more difficult to finance their investments. The constraints are more strengthened in times of slower growth or recession.

The Long term credit

The long-term funding is a funding for a period of not less than seven years. The credit is generally used to finance the purchase or construction of property of significant value, for example, buildings or industrial buildings, large equipment whose useful life is more than seven years.  It is also the capital funding for businesses, but the amortization period exceeds seven years. So it's heavy capital.

 Thus, when a company or an individual looking for a competition to fund the construction of a road, a factory or a building, it is clear that the importance of investment capital is such that reimbursement may be considered in time similar to those of medium-term credit for the good reason that the tax depreciation of these investments may not be realized in the long term.  In fact, the newly built factory will bear fruit only after several years.  It leads inevitably to the concept of depreciation that occurs and determines the time of repayment.

 It is therefore imperative, like the medium term, to focus the profitability of the company and consider the elements on: the evolution of turnover in recent years and its prospects especially future, and the cash flow of past and future, net profit after tax also past and projected.
 
Unlike the medium term, the proportion of bank intervention that is 70% or less of the total project to incur the long term is limited to 50% maximum.  All the rest of the conditions and terms for this category of credit remains the same as the medium term.

 Finally, it is clear that the classification, whether it is long-term credit or the medium term credit is only according to their duration, which is, more than seven years and can reach 20 years and over, for the long term, and between two to seven years for the medium term. The fact remains that it is closely and directly from the purpose and its funded depreciation determines the time of repayment.

US debts and the Chinese pressure!!!

China one of the largest creditor of the United States recently urged Washington to take a precautionary measures to safe guard the investors. This was given after Standard and Poor, the debt rating agency of US gave the warning. On Monday Standard and Poor’s showed the negative views about the debt situation in US. Apart from budget deficits, the main reason was no clear policy to resolve the issue.

The US government has challenged the sensational negative announcement of Standard and Poor’s views, and said the agency had under estimated the government’s efficiency. The fact remains that this deterioration in the U.S. took effect on global trade, the Shanghai falling by 1.91% Tuesday.

 According to the US government, as on August 2010, China had a total of 868.4 billion dollars in U.S. Treasuries. Hence China fears that any explosion of US debt will further weaken the American dollar which will result in a de facto devaluation of Treasury bills held by China.

By posting a negative outlook, Standard & Poor's warning seems to Beijing on the inability of U.S. policy to contain the situation, context likely to impact significantly the value of Chinese investment in dollars or even encourage an overhaul of global financial system currently focused on the dollar.

Some analysts however said China appears to have little choice, its accumulation of foreign currency forcing it to invest more than $ 50 billion out of the territory each month. Indeed there are some more alternative markets of sufficient size as that of US market is there to accommodate the Chinese fund.

Gold extended its record-breaking rally

The gold reached the record of 1500 dollars an ounce, It has never been a similar rise in the financial markets. With this crisis and expressed fears about the U.S. deficit and debt in Europe, investors prefer to acquire more gold to slow the risks.

It is obvious that holding gold resources does not yield large monetary benefit, but may qualify its holder as a good asset. In times of financial instability, investors are constantly looking for safe way to invest. The gold is the best immediate alternative for them. Hence this is the reason for this recorded historic outbreak in gold rate.

Since most of the global market is unstable this trend may continue and hence more procurement by the investors will lead to more price rise. In our neighboring country China inflation was reached 5.4% as on March 2011and hence their banks are required to increase the reserve and hence there is no immediate down trend in the price of yellow metal. The current crisis and un rest in African and Middle East countries are another main reason for the price raise of the yellow metal.

In relative point of view; the prevailing price of Gold is not expensive compared with the price of 1980 considering the inflation in price in mind. Even the poor man’s gold also rose to certain extent and the metal traders highly praise this metal.


However, all metals are not aware of such enthusiasm from buyers. The platinum price has not changed while that of palladium was down 6%. Their courses have been affected by the earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

Saudi Arabia And The Present Oil Crisis

The impact of the current situation in Libya on oil prices offer some advantages to some of the OPEC countries. While oil prices soaring, driven in particular by fears of shortages, Saudi Arabia is trying to pull out of the game by offering his "help". Finally, Saudi Arabia is trying to utilize this opportunity to inflate its oil wealth to greater extent.

Last Sunday, the Saudi oil minister has said in his country, as a leading member of OPEC, Saudi Arabia is ready to meet any additional supply to full fill the international demand. More over Minister Al al Nuaimi told they have enough stock as reserve for the supply since the raise in demand of Asian countries are more. Moreover he said their offer would impact heavy on the oil markets. Saudi Arabia the world's biggest exporter had already lowered its production. It was 8.29 million barrels per day in March against 9.1 million barrels per day in February.

Most of the petroleum user countries urged the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries to raise its production targets in an attempt to stop the current surge in oil prices. Here I wish to point out one thing, in late February, Tehran has called on member countries of OPEC, and in particular Saudi Arabia not to  unilaterally raise their crude production. Iranian Oil Minister Massoud Mir Kazemi, emphasized the OPEC members not to take hasty unilateral decisions in case of any shortage in Oil. And their argument is current production suffices to fill the gaps created by the Libyan internal crisis.

Gold hits another record

The gold price has again hit a record on Friday, getting closer every day just over a threshold of 1,480 dollars an ounce.

Main factors leading to this historical rise were; the worrying situation of some of the member countries of the European Union beset by serious difficulties with their internal debt and sustained rise in inflation.

The price of an ounce of gold has risen to its latest peak on Friday in the international market, by breaking the previous Monday record.

According to the Analysts the investors in Greece, Portugal remained concerned over the threat of default, a situation that encourages them to buy precious metals, which are the safe-haven assets.

 The debt restructuring in Greek, Ireland also raised the new concerns and hence the raise in the precious metals.

On Friday, ratings agency of France lowered the rating two notches in their country alone.

Another main reason for this rise is; the Investors are alarmed of the signs of runaway inflation. Many European countries afraid, that their local market gold price will be in raise compared with the expected price in China and India. The sovereign debt and the inflations of some of the countries are the main reason behind the rise.

Because of the market instability, threat of default in certain European countries and inflation kept the precious metal price on its present high. You have put eye on the market trend for few more days to predict the trend of the precious metal.

Stock Market Basics-4

The risks involved in investing Equities
The share prices are affected by factors that comes from within the company ( change of Management, change of policy of company, change of Human resources, fires and accidents in a company ), and the factors outside the company ( General Market condition, Economy, Sector demand and supply, Government Policies, International Wars, Foreign Policy, Demand in the International Markets, etc ).
So equities involves risk. But in a fixed deposit the risk is almost nil ( But it too have some risk. In case, if a Bank fails ). As we have seen earlier, Equities are riskier but they give good rewards. So while investing we should reduce our risk. How can one reduce the risk involved in equities.

Here comes diversification. One should not invest the entire amount at his disposal in a single share or sector. To reduce risk one should use basket of stocks. If one stock or one sector underperforms the market, the other sector or stocks which performs well will compensate the growth. Thus one can see good growth of his portfolio.

Impact of Tsunami on Japan’s Economy

Ever since Japanese Stock Index Nikkei touched 40,000 on January of 1990, it has been in decline. It touched a low of 7000 in 2008. For more than 18 years, Nikkei has been in decline. This says the sorry state of Japan’s Economy. Japan’s Economy was affected by the 2008 recession. Since then, it has been in a minor recovery path.

 

But the present Tsunami, has dashed the hope of full recovery of Jhttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifapan’s Economy. It is being estimated that more than 200 billion of USD was lost in the Tsunami. World Bank has estimated that it may take another 5 years to repair the damages. It is surely a disaster for Japan Economy.

 

Constructing a Atomic power station is not a easy job. It needs lot of money and time. The damaged Atomic power station may need lot time and money to repair it. Since this devastation is caused not only by Tsunami, it is devastated by earth quake as well. Lot of buildings, roads and infrastructure has been damaged in the main land. Though financially, these loss can be manageable by any country, Japan at this stage, given their poor state of economy, cannot afford this disaster.

Aftermath of Japan’s Natural disaster in world Economy

Once again, Nature has demonstrated its vast devastating power on Earth and also it has been once again proved the instability of Human lives in this world. Even though, natural disaster are not new for the Japanese, the present devastation is caused by Earth Quake, Tsunami, and Atomic radiation. Japanese might not have imagined such a three frontal attack on them.

The only consoling thing is that only the coastal areas are affected by this devastation. The main land is not affected by Tsunami. This seems, that Japan will soon recover from this calamity. The resilience and discipline shown by these people shown by this people is astonishing . We have seen utter chaos in the streets of many Asian or European Or American countries whenever a disaster struck. But the Japanese kept their cool and they have moved on.

It is learnt the Tsunami might cost a lot for the insurers. So, it is bad time for Japanese Insurance companies. Japan is an Automobile Major. It may affect the production of these companies. Japan may need lot of money to be put into their economy. So this will surely dampen the export import balance of that country.  Already crude oil saw a mild sell off on the back of Japanese natural disaster fearing a lack of demand on crude.

Commodity prices may move on the back of fresh demand for reconstructing these regions. So metal prices may go up in the near future. The economic impact of this disaster most likely to affect Japan only. It is unlikely to impact other economies.

Stock Market Basics - 3

When you put your money in banks, the bank pays you an interest. The relation between you and your bank is, as it is between a borrower and lender. But in the case of buying shares, you are giving your money to the company to become a partner of that company.
Since you are a partner of that company, you are also a part of the profit and loss of the company. When the company is in profit, the profits will be shared to you according the number of shares you are holding. In case of loss, though they won’t ask you, the value of the share will go down accordingly.
In a bank deposit, the risk is almost nil, though there is some risk associated with it. But in case of equities, the entire capital you have invested is at risk. But the return you get in bank deposit, which is  the interest, is always fixed and small. But the return you get in equities is always high but at the same time, if the company doesn’t perform well, then you are likely to lose the entire capital invested.
So, by investing in equities, you expose your money to high appreciation and also to high depreciation. The risk involved in equities is very high and at the same time the return is also very high. Though the risk is very high, the reward ( here it is the return from equities ) is also very high when compared to bank deposits.
The return on equities is some times phenomenal. Equities appreciate by two times or three times or more than that in a short span of time. Your capital will be doubled in every eight years in Bank deposits. But in shares, in a bull market, your capital will be doubled within few months.

Stock Market basics-2

Every body should invest to financially  protect himself for the rainy day. Investment is different from business. Business is the source of your income. What ever you invest in the business in not your investment. But some spending like buying land for the business can be a investment. So basically business and investments are different.
Investment is for the rainy day. But business is for our regular income. There are different type of investments. It may be shares, Gold, Bond, or real estate. But what you save in banks as deposits are savings. There is a difference between savings and Investment.
Savings can be done in any form. It is saving the excess money in banks or in your locker itself. Savings would not grow as it is. When your savings turn into a investment, it is likely to grow. Properly saved money is a good investment. Savings are not associated with any risk. But investments are associated by with some risk. So investments are risk capital. Where as savings are not.
So Business, Savings and Investments are three different thing. If you could identify these three things, then you have passed your 10th standard in finance. Stock Market investment is an Investment. Stock Market Investment is a risk capital

Stock Market basics-1

Stock Market investments are long term investments that should not be funded by short term debt. Always invest the surplus in Stock Market. Investments in stock market can be done at any age. But as the age increases one should reduce the exposure in stock market to half of his portfolio.
In the long run, equities always offer the highest returns. The amount that can be invested in stock market depends on two criteria. The risk profile of the person and two, the liquidity requirements of the person.
Risk profile
Equity investments are not free of risk. Person who has debts should not invest in Stock Markets. Person who has good career with stable income can take lot of risks in Stock Market. Person who is retired and who is not earning now should take small risk in the stock market.

Liquidity
Liquidity means the need of cash to meet one’s repaying obligations. A person who has debt is in need of liquid cash to meet out his obligations. So he should not invest in Stock Market. A person who has excess money and who has little requirement of liquid cash, can invest a lot in market. A person who has retired from job also is in need of liquid cash to meet out his recurring obligations like rent, telephone bills etc.

Investments in Stock Markets should be done based on risk profile and liquidity requirement of a person.

Will there be a bull market in Real Estate Sector world over?

It is being mentioned in main stream media that there will be bull market in real estate sector. And there is a perception among the investors that real estate prices are going to move up. Will there be really a bull market in this sector?

Earlier, it was in 2008, there was a big bull market top. The top was followed by a big correction and as everybody knows, it has been a bull market since 2009. Now it is being projected, that the bull market will continue its trend in 2011-2012 period also.

If the present rally continues its uptrend for the next two years, then real estate market is growing after a brief correction. Is it possible for a back to back rally in this sector, that’s to in a span of 4 years. As for as speculative markets are concerned, markets after peaking for a long time takes five to 10 years to consolidate its position.

So back to back rally is not possible in this sector within this 4 years. My view is, the present rally in this sector is a temporary one and it is going to be followed by a big bear market which could last even for a decade. Investment in this sector can be avoided at current levels or you can postpone the decision of buying for another 1 year

Short term Outlook of Australian Stock Index

The  Australian Index AORD has been forming a expanding triangle since September of 2009 and also it is forming a expanding triangle since september 2010 in the final leg of the bigger expanding triangle. Expanding triangles normally retrace completely. So the present rally would terminate some where between 4900 and 5250 in levels in near future.

A correction from these levels is likely to terminate around 4600 initially. Break of 4600 could foretell a big correction for AORD. A rally past 5250 could only negate the present bearish scenario for this Index. Almost most of the Western Markets are trading in the same pattern. The bearish pattern is not only seen in AORD, but also in all World Markets.

And also, the rally after October 2009 has not moved above the all time high the AORD formed on 2007. The present rally would miss the previous high by a huge margin, if the present rally terminates around 5250. As of now selling the index when it moves towards 5250 will fetch some good returns from a traders point of view.

Short Term Outlook of FTSE

Since 2009 September, the United Kingdom stock Index FTSE has been trading in a expanding triangle pattern. Expanding Triangle is a reliable. But trading and projecting will be very tough for any Analyst or Trader. The price pattern suggests, the present rally from the low of 4800 from June 2010 seems to be the last leg of the Expanding Triangle.

The last upside rally in an Expanding Triangle would be followed by a last downside leg. If FTSE behaves as we project then it is likely to see a correction towards 4400 levels in coming weeks.  For the short term, the level 6000 seems to be a crucial level for the coming trading session. If it could sustain above that level, a short term rally towards 6300 is likely. If not a correction towards 5450 is likely


In the Long term, since it failed to clear the 2007 high, this Index seems to be in a bear market.

Short term Technical Outlook of Nasdaq

Ever Since September 2009, Nasdaq Index is in expanding triangle pattern. The present rally from september 2010 seems to be the third leg in the upside, which is also seems to be the last leg of the expanding triangle.

Presently, Nasdaq is trading at 2660 levels. Earlier, in 2007 it tested a high of 2870. That level 2870 is likely to be the next upside target of Nasdaq. In the downside the level 2550 is going to be a strong support in the near future. For another 2 to 3 months it is likely to trade between 2550 and 2850.

In the medium term a correction could be possible towards 2100 from 2850.

Short term Technical Outlook of Dow

Dow has been in a medium term rally since it tested 9600 on july this year. Recently, it made a year high at 11615. After testing its high it has been trading just below that level for the past two trading sessions. From here on the level 11300 seems to be crucial. As long as it trades above 11300, it is likely to test 11900 in coming weeks.

On contrary , if breaks 11300 and trades below that level, then it is likely to decline towards 10900 in coming weeks. Futures traders can hold their longs with a stop at 1130. And fresh Shorts can be initiated when Dow rallies towards this level.

The long term trend continues to be bearish. Dow is likely to make major top in the middle of 2011. Until then, one can hold their investments.

Short term Outlook of Jakarta Stock Exchange Index JKSE

For the past three months, JKSE is taking support at 3520 levels and it is likely to act as a trend decider for the coming trading sessions.  In the upper side it was resisted from 3800 region for two times.  Currently it is trading 3600 and it is very close to the short term support level of 3520.

If the index breaks 3660 in the short term it is likely to remain bullish and in the upper side it would try to test 3800 levels once again. On contrary, if it fails to move past 3660, then it could all set to test 3520 again.

Right now, the trading strategy should be based on the level 3660. Traders have a eye on that level to initiate short or long positions.

In the long term charts, the index has moved past its 2008 high of 2850, and made an all time high at 3800. Technical analysis of the index shows it is going to top out in this year 2011.

Behavior of World Indices in 2010

The year 2008 saw a big correction in stock markets world over and it was followed by a rally from 2008. Many Indices rallied and gave one of the biggest appreciation in 2009. The year 2010 can be considered as not bad.


The European Indices rallied in 2010 but the magnitude is less when compared to the Asian Markets. Many Indices in Asia moved past their 2008 highs. Srilankan Stock indices moved passed their 2008 high. Indian Market came very closer to their high, but so far it has not crossed that levels.

But the notable performance is from China’s SSEC. When compared to their other Asian counterparts, the chinese index has so far under performed. If the stock market continues to under perform in coming months, I doubt whether they could maintain their present growth rate.


Since Stock Market prices reflect the future perception of the Market, continuous underperformance foretell a big correction in China’s Stock Markets. If the fastest growing economy in the world, china, doesn’t see their indices move up, it cannot sustain its growth.


In US, the markets rallied, but is has not rallied as much the Asian markets moved.

Is Insurance needed ?

          Insurance is needed to face unwanted death or unexpected accident in one’s life. Insurance is ensuring your family’s good life after your death or ensuring a good life for you after an unwanted and unexpected incident in your life. If you have a motor vehicle, you need to insure it for the same purpose.

Types of Insurance

Life Insurance
This insurance is to cover your life. You can have a term insurance or a endowment policy.
In term insurance, you will get coverage but you will not get any money back. But the amount paid here is very meager.
In endowment policy, you will get coverage and also some many back in a future date. But the premium here is more than the term insurance premium.


Accident Policy
In this policy, in case of any accident, the amount insure will be given. Otherwise, you wont get any return.

Vehicle insurance
In this insurance, the cost of repairing the damage or theft, the life of the driver and the life of the third party who is injured by the vehicle will be covered. In case, if none of the above it claimed, you will not get a return.

Mediclaim
This policy is to cover all your medical expenses.

A person should take all these policies to secure his family from any unexpected events. In particular, the breadwinner of a family should compulsorily have these insurances.

Risk involving in Foreign investment

Foreign direct investment plays a vital role in the international business. It provides a new market and marketing facilities, production facilities in lesser cost, access to latest technology, new products. Foreign direct investment simply means a firm from one country making raw physical investment to build a factory (direct investment is the investment in buildings and equipments not in portfolio investment) in another country.

                In FDI there are so many risks ply with let us analyze one by one the first and foremost one is the country risk. All business dealings involve risk. When the business cross the national boundary then it faces additional risk beyond our control let us analyze one by one. These risks are of national differences in economic conditions, policies, socio political situations and the currency values. You may categorize them in to following six main headings.

                Economic Risk

               

                Transfer Risk

               

                Exchange Risk

               

                Location Risk

                Sovereign Risk

                and

               

                Political Risk.

               

                Economic Risk is the significant change in the economic conditions that can produce major change in the expected return of a foreign investment.

                Transfer risk simply means the risk arising from the decision of the foreign government to restrict capital flow. As the governments have the liberty to revise their policy at any time the transfer risk is also high.

                Exchange risk is an unexpected change in the exchange rate. As the currency hedging mechanisms is impractical over a long period, the exchange risk can be developed.

                Location risk is the risk which includes spillover effects caused by the problems of the particular region or the problems in the partner country.

                Sovereign risk procedures of a government’s capability to pay are similar to transfer risk measures. Sovereign risk has close association with transfer risk.

                Political Risk concerns risk of change in political climate, change in government, and change in society or any other non economic factor.

                 Hence every foreign company examines various methods to measure the risk of investing in a foreign country and the lay a strategy to minimize the risk.

                                                                                                                                          (to be continued)

Carbon Trading

After the Kyoto Summit, all the developed countries agreed to limit their emission level and if not they have to pay a price for their emission. Here the carbon trading comes to ply. The main idea behind carbon trading is to curtail the emission levels of each country and give monetary benefits to the countries with low emissions. As the developing countries can start with clean technologies they will get more monetary benefits from the developed countries.

          For example if a company in India cuts X tones of carbon, it can sell this much amount of points to a company which is emitting carbons in the developed country. The World Bank itself is the monitoring authority.

                Hence carbon trading allows carbon emitting industries in the developed countries to set of their emissions by investing in a large scale mass reforestation projects in the developing countries to nullify their emission. 100000 hectares of forest can eliminate one million tons of carbon in a year from the environment.

                The calculation is very simple. Half of the trees dry weight is carbon. The amount of carbon stored by the trees is calculated from their volume (the volume is calculated the height and the area of cultivation of forest).From the volume the dry wood is calculated and from this carbon proportion is estimated. These projects not only directly fetch money but also indirectly give social, economic and environmental benefits to the developing country.

                India is the second largest country after china. India has generated 30 million carbon credits and expecting 140 million credits in the long run. Around thousand carbon credit projects have already started and around two hundred new projects every year added every year.

                Presently, carbon credit from thermal projects gives 7 to 8$ in the international market. Now NCDEX  is to commenced carbon trading in Indian market. Carbon trading is one of the fast growing volatile market.

Are ULIPs Good Investments?

The unit linked Insurance plans are simply called ULIP. ULIP are financial instruments which will give a term insurance coverage and, investment in stocks  In ULIP, the premium paid by investor goes to two separate investments. One goes for your insurance and the other goes for the investment in stock market. The insurance part consumes less amount and the investment plan consumes more amount. But, in the first year, a major portion of the premium goes to insurance companies as administrative costs which includes the commission paid to the Agents.
So, in the first year, a major chunk of the premium goes to the company and a small amount of the premium is invested in stocks and a small portion is taken for the term insurance. From second year onwards, the administrative costs will be reduced substantially and the balance will be used for investment in stocks and also for the insurance.
If the premium is paid for a long period, at the end of the maturity, one will get a good return. Will this investment option get benefit to the investors? Stock market investments are destined to give good results in the long term, say, more than 10 years.
But people attracted to these plans only during bull market. Their investments get eroded in the next bear market. Now they get confused whether to hold or get rid of it or to invest more. As I said earlier, stock market are bullish in the long term, always, and it will give good results in the longer run. So if an Investor continues his investments even in bear market surely investment in ULIPs will be beneficial.

Is the Indian Stock Market topping out?

     The Indian Stock Market bench mark Index Sensex has scaled 21150 on January 2008 and it followed by a big crash and by October 2008, it tested a low of 7700, a level achieved in just 10 months. Stock Market crash was followed by economic slow down. The Indian Economy which was growing around 8% at that time, saw a downturn in its GDP growth.

     Now the same Bench mark Index Sensex is trading well near its all time high of 21150. When Sensex was trading in 2008, its PE ratio is 21. It was at that time a high Price to Earnings ratio. Historically when ever Sensex trades above the PE ratio of 20, it tops out.

    Now, with Sensex trading above 20000, already the PE ratio has crossed the 21 mark and it is trading well above that. Fundamentally, a top has to form around this level. Technically speaking, a double top formation is a possibility. Technical and Fundamental indicators point to a top at this level. Sentimentally, euphoria is seen in stock market circles. The continuous flow of FII funds in the market is boosting the sentiment. The bullish sentiment has reached the levels that was seen in January 2008.

    I feel it is the right time to withdraw the funds from stock market. With everything getting saturated, a bullish sentiment alone cannot take the market further. So a correction is going to be there in the near future.

    Protect your capital and don’t get sucked into the crowd. Beware, in stock markets, crowd is always wrong.

Will a ban on outsourcing Save US from recession?

The Obama Administration in USA has slapped service tax on companies which are outsourcing to other countries ( mostly to India ), in order to bring jobs back to USA and to improve the business conditions in USA. The Indian Software and BPOs are likely to suffer in the future, if the US companies stop outsourcing from India.
Will this act stop US from going into recession? If this is the question, then the answer would be good ‘NO’. The Global Economies suffered a setback in 2008 because of the crash in the stock Markets world over. The stock Market Crash has jolted the US and European Economies in particular.
Ever since the crash, the Asian and South American Economies improved and their Stock Markets rallied to their 2008 levels. But the US and European Economies seen little improvement and their Stock Markets rallied but not to the level which it was seen in 2008 January.
Since Stock Markets in these countries never rallied much, the liquidity, business confidence, job conditions have not improved. This percolates into their Economies which in turn is looking weak right now. Banning Outsourcing by the US companies in no way going to improve their economy.
Actually, it is likely to impact badly their economies in the Future. The performance of the US Companies depends upon the cost cutting measures they are taking. Stopping outsourcing will surely increase the working cost and it will be reflected in their bottom line.  A weak performance of these companies will further dampen the US Economy.

Gold is likely to top in 3 months

Gold, it seems it is likely to be topped out in coming months between 1250 and 1300. Technically speaking, since 2006 Gold is in a expanding pattern. The first top formed on 2006, followed by the next on 2008 and the present top is likely to be formed on 2010.
In a expanding triangle, the first upside leg is followed by a first downside correction and it will be followed by the second upside leg by the second downside leg. The second upside and downside will be bigger than the first upside and downside legs. The third would be bigger than the second one.
The present technical setup of Gold shows, it is in the third upside leg and it is likely to be followed by a third downside leg and it would be the big downside in last 4 years since 2006. If that happens then Gold is likely to fall towards 900 USD in another 1 year.
Any market has see a bull and bear market. We have already seen bull market. So surely there will be bear market in Gold also. No one can take the rally in Gold as granted. Investments in Gold and related products should be avoided at this juncture.

What skill is really needed for a trader in stocks

Trading in Stock Market is one of the toughest mental game in the world. Very few succeed in the game and majority of traders lose in the markets. What makes the difference between a loser and winner in stock market. Since trading stocks is a mental game, those who are having good emotional control over them win in the stock market.

If anybody takes decision impulsively instead of logically, he is likely to end up in loss. What most trader lack is, the ability to cut loss when it is small and the ability to hold their winning position till it gives a good profit. Lacking of both these qualities lead to loss in stocks.

The first and most important of this is, the ability to cut down their loss when it is small. Once you take a position, and if it is against you, you should not live on your wish but you should act on what your technical knowledge tells you. If your stop loss levels are triggered you need to book loss when it is small. Here always comes your ego. It will tell you not to close your position as if you will be right. Those who over come this ego, will certainly close their position. So one main quality a trader should posses is, he should overcome his ego.

The next thing is booking profits early. Even though it is not as evil as running the loss, it too have the same financial disaster. If you couldn’t make big profits in the long run, then what is the use of trading in the markets, that too with big risk associated with it.

Be a trader who book loss early and allow to run your profits. As legendary trader Jesse Livermore said ‘ Sitting right and sitting tight ‘ will give good profits in the long run

Indian Currency now has a new symbol

Of late, the Government of India has approved a new symbol for Indian Rupee in line with USD ( $ ), Euro and etc. Though the decision is late, it has come at a appropriate time when India is being recognized a world economic power. G-8 Group has lost it significance and it is being replaced by G-20 in which India and China are members. And it shows the importance of India in world arena.
The Government of India has shortlisted five symbols to finalize in one symbol from that. Finally, the symbol designed by Udayakumar from Chennai has got the nod of the government and he was awarded Rs 2 lakhs cash prize. Now the Government has to seize the opportunity that is being created in International arena as an important world power to market the symbol in financial world to popularize the symbol.
The Re symbol is not just a symbol, it is the symbol of India's pride, importance and dominance in international arena. We all know how the USD $ and Euro are dominating the world trade. Hope the Indian Rupee will rule the world one day.

The Legendary Trader, Jesse Livermore

Jesse Livermore was an legendary trader of stocks and commodities during the early 20th century. At the height of his fame, he earned more than USD 100 Million. He earned and lost millions of Dollars in his career.

At the young age, he left his house to work in bucket shops. Bucket shops are nothing but gambling house and their bets are based on the actual movement of stocks in New York Stock Exchange. Soon he mastered that game and started betting real money on stocks and earned windfall profits. This led to the banning of him from most of bucket shops. He earned more than what he gave to them.

One fine morning he moved to New York to try his luck. His experiences in the bucket shop had helped in making a good fortune in 1909 and 1929 crashes. Most of the time he played the Bear. He was known at that as a big Bear in the stock Market circles.

His famous strategy was to add further positions in winning trades and cutting the losses quickly. Some times he did not follow his own rules. So he lost all his fortunes. He died by killing himself and he was in huge debt when he died.


He has written a book  called ‘ Reminiscences ' of a stock market ‘ under a pseudo name. This Book is considered as a classic for its depiction of speculation in an interesting way, even now.

W D Gann, A Legendary Trader of Markets

 

Gann was born on June 6, 1878 in Texas, USA. His father was a cotton industrialist. He started trading the stocks in 1902 when he was 24.

An avid reader of charts, he developed over the years a Technical Analysis method to determine the movement of stocks. He never revealed the method to anyone but he hinted that his forecasts were based Law of Vibration. He accurately forecasted where a stock would sell.

In 1909,  'The ticker and Investment Digest" Magazine reported they had oversaw his trading for October of that year and it included 286 winning trades and 22 losing, a win rate of 92%, which is unthinkable even now.

He also hinted what ever happened in stock market had happened earlier. He said, ‘History always repeats itself’. Later, he used astrology in predicting the stock market movements. And also Gann described the use of geometrical angles in the stock market.
After acquiring a huge fortune, he started teaching students of Technical Analysis. He wrote the following books;-

• How to Make Profits Trading in Puts and Calls
• 45 Years in Wall Street
• Truth of the Stock Tape
• How To Make Profits in Commodities
• Truth of the Stock Tape and Wall Street Stock Selector

Any Student of Technical Analysis should at least have some insight about his method to be a successful Analyst.