Saturday, November 28, 2015

Why China ‘Spill Over’ Poses Risks for the Euro Zone

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China’s Slowdown – Risks for Euro


The economic slowdown of China could face risks for euro ranging from decreasing exports, capital outflows and exchange rate fluctuations, according to the European Central Bank – ECB. China the second biggest economy following the US plays an important role in the global trade and its economy seems to have slowed down every year since 2010.

It seems to be continuing in doing so till at least 2016 when the International Monetary Fund forecasts growth by 6.3%. From the start of 2015, the slowdown of growth in China has condensed euro area exports especially exports of machinery and transport equipment and this has brought about adverse consequence particularly for exporters of manufactured goods.

 According to the bank’s recent financial stability review, this has been accountable for around 90% of goods exports to China. The ECB which tends to control the monetary policy in the 19 countries using the euro informed that 1% point slowdown in Chinese real gross domestic products – GDP would drop around 0.1-0.15% points off euro area movement after around two to three years.

Confidence Shock – Led to Tightening of Financial Situation


The ECB have stated that an economic `confidence shock’ probably owing to a worse than expected slowdown in China could have led to a tightening of financial situation in the emerging markets with a further slowdown of euro area foreign demand.

It added that besides capital outflows from China if not compensated by the other private or official flows it could activate a depreciation of the Chinese currency taking into consideration, exchange rate depreciation of other emerging market currencies’. The bank has commented that China’s massive economy would mean that it had manipulated a significant effect on the charge of oil though this had declined in recent years as its rapid growth slowed down.

The U.S. crude oil prices had fallen by about 45% since the last year owing to an imbalance of demand as well as supply which has been partially motivated by the economic slowdown of China, an important purchaser of commodities.

Chinese Economy – Important Effect on Oil Prices


According to ECB, the Chinese economy size means that it has had an important effect on the prices of oil though its relevance had declined in recent years since the growth continued to weaken. Hence the influence of slowdown in China on the prices of oil could be limited but it significantly is based on whether the growth in other emerging market economies also slows down.

The background of global economic, including that of China could influence the decision of ECB on whether to extend or expand its 1 trillion euro – $1.1 trillion, asset purchasing program. It is said that the central bank is extensively expected to do so, when it would meet in Frankfurt on December 3.

In its report, the bank concluded that the influence on the euro area of a potential further slowdown in China eventually centres on the extent to which this slowdown spills over to the other emerging markets more generally and the point to which the subsequent loss of confidence tends to affect the global financial market together with global trade.

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