Wednesday, January 27, 2016

What markets are really worried about


Dull Start for Global Stock Market

It has been a dull start for the global stock market this year and the first week has been described as the worst start ever, for Wall Street. During the first week of 2016, Frankfurt and Tokyo had dropped by double digit percentages while in New York the drop was 9% and in London 8%. However, China was the eye of the storm where the key index in Shanghai had lost 19% of its value during the same period.

The prices of commodity had also stumbled where crude oil prices for the first time in almost 12 years, had slipped to below $30 per barrel. Share prices, at times had followed oil downwards which is likely for shares of the companies in oil business. However, for the others it tends to reduce costs leaving consumers with more to spend on their products.

There seems to be a slowdown in emerging growth of the economies and China is an exceptional example though certainly not the only one. The instability had begun in the Chinese market, spreading all around the world.The Chinese stock market in itself does not seem to be the ultimate international issue.

Currency under Pressure

Though it is a serious issue for Chinese investors who had purchased shares while the prices were high, they have lost a good amount of money. However there are few of them to have a possible impact on consumer spending in China.

 There are also few foreign investors in Chinese market withthe possibility of serious losses inflicted beyond the country as direct significance. Besides the stock market, the currency, Yuan has also been under pressure and has lost its ground this year though not on the stock market scale. In the first week, the onshore, official rate dropped down by almost 2%. Some had indicated that there could be a possibility of the decline in the Yuan revolving into a full blown loss of confidence.

The financial market pressures on China are in portion at least an indication of the extensive and much discussed economic slowdown. Since the Chinese economy seemed to lose some space there has been some uncertainty on how well the authorities would handle the process. China would certainly need to slow to an added sustainable pace, but would the path tend to be a rocky one with an abrupt slowdown?

Significant But Catastrophic Slowdown in Growth

The official figures so far indicate a significant though not catastrophic slowdown in growth. According to official figures published, after three decades of 10% average growth, China seemed to slow down to 6.9% last year.The new assessment of the economic outlook of IMF tends to predict a further easing of the pace to about 6.3% this year and in 2017 around 6.0%. It records that China has experienced a faster than presumed slowdown in exports and imports, partially reflecting weaker investments as well as manufacturing activity. The apprehensions regarding economic outlook are not only over China. The new forecast of IMF, downgrades the outlook for the emerging as well as the developing countries and the ones which tend to stand out are Brazil and Russia. This is partly regarding the low prices of oil together with the other commodities as well as the political issues, external for Russia and domestic for Brazil. Besides, this there is also a substantial downgrade in the forecast for South Africa.

Monday, January 25, 2016

IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast As China Growth Slows


IMF Cuts Forecast of Global Growth

Recently the International Monetary Fund – IMF had cut its forecasts of global growth for the third time in less than a year, as the new figures from Beijing indicated that the Chinese economy in 2015, had been at its slowest rate in a quarter of a century. The IMF, to support its forecasts had cited a sharp slowdown in China trade and weak product prices which were hammering Brazil together with the other emerging markets.

 The Fund had forecast that the world economy would tend to grow at 3.4% towards 2016and 3.6% in 2017; both the years would be down by 0.2% point from the earlier estimates made last October. It has stated that policymakers need to consider means of bolstering short-term demand.

The updated forecast of the World Economic Outlook came as global financial markets were shaken by worries over the slowdown of China as confirmed by official Chinese data on Tuesday together with the plunging oil prices. IMF had maintained its earlier China growth forecasts of 6.3% in 2016 and 6.0% in 2017 representing sharp slowdowns from 2015.

Concern over Beijing’s Hold on Economic Policy

According to China’s report, growth for 2015 had hit 6.9% after a year wherein the world’s second biggest economy had suffered huge capital outflows, a slip in the currency as well as summer stock market crash. There was a rise in shares in Europeand Asia and the dollar gained after the China data had been released, while investors expected greater effort by Beijing to spur growth.

 There was concern over Beijing’s hold on economic policy which had shot to the top of global investors’ risk list for the year 2016 after drop in its stock markets as well as the Yuan fuelled worries that the economy would be quickly weakening.

The Fund also mentioned that a steeper slowing of demand in China seemed to be a risk to the global growth. The weaker than expected Chines imports as well as exports had been weighing heavily on the other emerging markets as well as commodity exporters.

Major Risk Aversion/Currency Depreciation/Dollar Appreciation

Maurice Obstfeld, IMF economic counsellor had mentioned in a videotaped statement that `they do not see a big change in the fundamentals in China compared to what is was seen six months ago though the markets are certainly very spooked by small events there that they find it hard to interpret’ He further added that the global financial markets seems to be overreacting to the oil prices drop as well as the risk of a sharp downturn in China and it was critical that China is clear about its overall economic strategy inclusive of its currency.

At a news conference Obstfeld had stated that `it is not a stretch to suggest that markets may be responding very strongly to rather small bits of evidence in an environment of volatility and risk aversion. The oil price puts strains on oil exporters, but there is a silver lining for consumers worldwide, so it is not an unmitigated negative’.

The IMF report states that continued market upheaval would also tend to help in dragging growth lower if it heads to major risk aversion and currency depreciation in the emerging markets. Besides this, other risk would comprise of further dollar appreciation and acceleration of geopolitical tensions.

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

RBS Cries 'Sell Everything' As Deflationary Crisis Nears


RBS Warns Clients – Brace for Cataclysmic Year/Global Deflationary Crisis

According to RBS, clients are advised to brace for a cataclysmic year as well as a global deflationary crisis, cautioning that main stock markets would fall by a 5th as well as oil would plunge to $16 per barrel. It was informed by the bank’s credit team that the markets tend to be blinking stress alerts similar to the stormy months prior to the Lehman crisis in 2008. In a client note it had stated to `sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital.

In a crowded hall, exit doors are small’. Bank’s research chief for European economics and rates, Andrew Roberts commented that the global trade as well as loans have been contracting nasty cocktail for corporate balance sheets and equity earnings which are mainly threatening,considering that global debt ratios have touched record highs.

He further added that `China has set off a main correction and the same is going to snowball. Equities as well as credit have become quite dangerous and we have hardly begun to retrace the `Goldlocks love-in’ of the last two years’. Mr Roberts is hopeful that the Wall Street and European stock would fall by 10 to 20% with a deeper slide for the FTSE 100 taking into account its high weighting of energy and commodities companies.

London Vulnerable to Negative Stock

He has commented saying that `London is vulnerable to a negative stock. All the peoplewho are `long’, oil and mining companies are under the impression that the dividends are safe, will discover that they are not safe at all. The oil prices of Brent will tend to continue to slide after breaking through an important technical level at $34.40, as claimed by RBS, with a `bear flag’ and `Fibonacci’ indication focusing to a floor of $16, which was a level seen last after the East Asia crisis in 1999. The bank has stated that a paralysed OPEC appears unable to respond to a deepening slowdown in Asia with swing region now for global oil demand. RBS predicts that yields on 10-year German Bunds would drop to an all-time low of 0.16% in an effort to safety and would break zero while deflationary powers tend to tighten their grip. The policy rate of European Central Bank would fall to -0.7%.

China – Epicentre of Global Stress

RBS had first delivered its grim warnings in November for the global economy though events had moved much quicker than dreaded. It had estimated that in the fourth quarter, the US economy had slowed to a growth rate of 0.5% and had accused the US Federal Reserve of `playing with fire’, by increasing rates. It stated that there has already been severe financial tightening in the US due to the rising dollar’.

 When the ISM manufacturing index appears to be below the boom-bust line of 50, it seems unusual for the Fed to tighten. Moreover, it is also more shocking to do so after nominal growth of GDP had fallen to 3% and since 2014 been trending down. RBS has informed that China is the epicentre of global stress where the debt driven expansion had reached saturation and the country is now facing a surge in capital flight and is in need of a dramatically lower currency. This next leg of the rolling global drama, according to them is to play out wild and frantically

Saturday, January 16, 2016

World Stocks Drop But Europe Shrugs off Oil Slide, China Money Market Surge


World Stocks Dropped – Fall in Oil Prices/Rush in Chinese Yuan Deposit Rate

World stocks, on Tuesday fell for the fifth straight day anchoring near its lowest level in over two years making investors upset due to the fall in oil prices as well as a rush in offshore Chinese Yuan deposit rates. However, the European stocks recovered from initial weakness due to a rally in the retail segment. Strong seasonal updates had been posted by British companies in particular, lifting the FTSEuroFirst 300 up from three month low.

According to analyst, the People’s Bank of China had earlier compelled overnight, deposit rates in Hong Kong to 66.8% in order to overcome the heavy downward pressure on the Yuan, which was a severe measure essential in cooling the Chinese market volatility Deflation cautious investors in Asia avoided equities and pushed the value of the safe-haven Japanese yen, as oil slipped closer to dropping below $30 a barrel for the first time in 12 years.

Chief market analyst at Avatrade in London, Naeem Aslam informed that `investors in Europe are shrugging off some of the anguish around the Chinese market sell-off and showing some resilience today despite the up and down swings in Asia.

Slowdown in Global Economy/Volatile Chinese Markets

The FTSEuroFirst 300 was up 0.6% at 1,342 points, at 0900 GMT, only its second rise this year while Britain’s FTSE 100 was up 0.5%, Germany’s DAX was up 1.1% and France’s CAC 40 rose by 0.8%. The shares in Morrison’s rushed 12%, while Debenhams climbed 15% and Tesco rose 5%. The broadest gauge of world stocks of MSCI was however down 0.2% and had not risen since Dec 29. MCSI’s broadest index of the shares of Asia-Pacific outside Japan was 0.4% lesser just cautious of its lowest level in 4 years.

 Since the beginning of 2016, it is down more than 9%. Japan’s Nikkei had closed at 2.7 lower at its lowest level in about a year while U.S. futures aimed to a fall of about 0.3% at the open on Wall Street. With the investors still recovering from last year’s drop in global community prices together with sharp sell-off in Chinese markets, 2016 seems to have brought more pain for investments portfolios by way of developing slowdown in the global economy together with volatile Chinese markets. Beijing by setting another firm fix for its currency has eliminated the gap between offshore and onshore Yuan exchange rates.

China Continues to Inspire Degree of Stability

This was intended to encourage state banks in buying up Yuan in Hong Kong, driving up the overnight deposit rate fixing to 66.8%. According to Mitul Kotecha, currency strategist at Barclays in Singapore, `China continues to inspire a degree of stability after the sharp volatility at the start of the month by announcing stable to firmer fixings.

 Tighter liquidity had contributed to a squeeze on long USD/CNH positions and would mean investors tend to be guarded of shorting CNH in the near term’. Weakness in the commodity market from the start of the year had showed no indication of easing though as Brent and U.S. crude futures had fallen around 2% to new 12-year lows and both played with a break below $30 a barrel.

Money market futures are beginning to price out this year, the opportunity of multiple hikes in rates by the Federal Reserve, with just around 50% chance of a second hike price. Futures had been fully pricing in two rate increases at the beginning of the year.

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

China Stocks Recover, Asian Markets Breathe Sigh of Relief


Shares Recover in Asia- Chines Yuan Stable for 3rd Day

Trading seemed to remain uneven on the mainland stock market though shares recovered in Asia recently as the Chinese Yuan become stable for the third straight day. The Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, +0.17% increased 0.4% to 3028.04 though traded up and down as around 1% from its earlier close.

The main stock market of China dropped 5.3% last week amidst fear that the authorities of China seemed to be unable to stem the latest chaos in the financial markets as well as s slowdown in the larger economy. In another place, the Australian S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -O.14% dropped 0.1%, South Korea’s Kospi SEU, -0.21% was flat while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, -0.84% rose 0.2%.

Where the markets seemed to be closed for national holiday on Monday in Japan, the Nikkei Stock Average NIK, -2.71% tracked Monday’s regional losses dropping 2%. The Chinese Yuan sustained to steady on Tuesday but the central bank directed the slightly weaker currency. Previously, the Chinese authorities had fixed the Yuan at 6.5628 per U.S. dollar when compared with 6.5626,on Monday.

Offshore Currency Hits Strongest Level

China’s onshore Yuan that could trade 2% below or above the fix, had traded last at 6.5733 per dollar, weaker than 6.5695 at Monday’s close and the currency had reached a five year low of 6.5956 last week. Offshore currency had hit its strongest level from the beginning of the year on Tuesday and had trade last at 6.5705.

The offshore Yuan, which tends to trade freely, on late Monday, strengthened by around 1.5% to 6.5827 to one U.S. dollar when compared to the earlier close, which helps to contract the gap between the onshore and offshore Yuan to its tightest in two months. Traders are of the opinion that the offshore Yuan is strengthening since state-owned Chinese banks tend to buy the currency, which is an intervention by central bank of China.

This had limited the supply of the offshore Yuan, thereby tightening the liquidity and sending the rate at which the Hong Kong banks tend to lend Yuan to each other overnight, to a record high of 66.815%, on Tuesday. The rate soared to 13.4% on Monday from 4% on Friday.

According to Tommy Ong, head of Wealth Management Solutions at DBS in Hong Kong commented that `a lot of channels bringing money from onshore to offshore market has been blocked which also tends to contribute to the shortage of Yuan in Hong Kong.

Beijing Continues to Affect Global Market Mood

The regions’ stock gains Tuesday, tends to offer some absolution after the chaos of the earlier week caused by a faster than anticipated depreciation of the Yuan, when the currency had fallen 1.5%. The stock regulators also seemed to come in last week in order to calm the trading stating that they would do away with a circuit breaker which tends to aggravate selling and extend a ban on big shareholders from selling the shares.

However, China shares are presently roughly just 3% above their summer low on August 27 after a 3 month retreat wiped trillions of U.S. dollars from the marketplace, sparking a global selloff. Traders as well as analysts state that they are uneasy since Chinese authorities oppose with the prospect of increasing the capital outflows from the world’s second largest economy.

Market analyst at Brokerage IG, Bernard Aw,in a morning note had written that `for now, it may seem like the tweaks that Beijing makes will continue to affect global market mood.

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Replacement Compressor Parts

You do not want to mess around trying to find a place to buy air compressor parts when you need them. Ideally, you want to already have a place to buy them in mind so you can quickly get the parts you need. Unfortunately, finding a store that sells quality air compressor parts is not as easy as you might think. There are definitely many stores that sell this type of parts. However, it would be making a huge understatement to say that they tend to vary greatly in the quality of parts they sell. What makes a good air compressor parts store? Here are a few things you should be looking for.

1. Do they carry obscure parts?

You may have an older air compressor that has not been sold for many years. If this is the case, you might find it very difficult to find the parts you need when you need to make a repair. This is why it would be a big help if you could find a store that caters to people like you who own older pieces of equipment. This will allow you to avoid spending endless hours online trying to find a specific part for an air compressor that is 30 years old. It would make your life much easier to be able to drive to your local store and buy it.

2. Competitiveness

How much does the store charge for their parts? Are their prices somewhat close to the other air compressor part stores in your area? Finding a store with a large inventory is all well and good. However, this will not matter very much if they charge an arm and a leg for the parts they sell. The trick is the find a store that has the parts you want and sells them for competitive prices. It is often hard to find a combination of these two things. You can find a nice selection of Joy air compressor parts for sale online.

3. A knowledgeable staff

You might go to an air compressor parts store having no idea what type of parts you need. After all, not every person is an expert when it comes to this sort of thing. In these cases, it is very important that the employees at the store are knowledgeable. They need to be able to guide the customer and recommend the specific part that is needed.

Friday, January 8, 2016

How to Create a Scalable Payments System

Creating Effective Fintech Payment System

Generating an effective fintech payment system is much more than removing the credit cards while indulging in transaction. There are several companies, in fintech which tends to build scalable payment methods and as per EY; the largest market in UK fintech is payments which is around £8bn a year.

However payment could be difficult and in order to make money, a new payment source is essential to scale rapidly for economics to function. A proposition is essential which could be considerably convincing for consumer as well as the merchant together with various other players in the value chain. Payment tends to work and though it is not impeccable by any means, all the same it tends to work.

Firstly, one needs to add value to a payment method in order to make an effective business. It was observed that just doing payments seems great though not good enough. Given the option of paying at a restaurant with the phone through contactless, rather than the credit card, the difference would not be big, and one will still need to go through the process of asking for the check and view it. Instead of paying with credit card, one would be paying with their phone and the incentive of using the phone is not strong.

No Need of Paper Vouchers/Loyalty Program

In one intends creating a compelling payment experience, like trying to comprehend the full process, one needs to understand where the discomfort points lies for the customer. For instance the technology has been integrated into restaurant apps enabling consumers in making payments for the total bill amount or split the bill with others through Apple Pay, PayPal or a registered card on a MyCheck account, without the need of waiting for the staff.

Moreover, it also permits sophisticated incentives together with loyalty programs that are designed to personalize the dining experience for the customers. When a customer tends to sit in a restaurant, they would want to check the menu and they can do that through the app of the restaurants which is powered by MyCheck and when he intends to redeem his coupons or offers or even participate with loyalty program, they could do the same through the app.

There is no need of paper vouchers or loyalty cards and the accumulation together with redemption seems to be automatic.

MyCheck Platform is Integrated

And when you want to pay, you don’t need to ask for the check since the MyCheck platform is integrated and one can pay as well as split the bill by utilising the smartphone.When it comes to monetizing an app it is based on what the app intends to achieve. Several of the payment apps have not been generating revenue and the merchant is paying them.

The amazing thing with regards to MyCheck is that they are in partners with chains that they are working with and the partners’ success becomes their success. It is not too difficult in persuading customers in using the app for the first time. The big challenge is on how one makes them loyal, how you tend to drive repeated visits and at the same time provide an improved customer experience.

According to their data, it has been observed that when a user tends to use the app more than twice, they get hooked to it. They need to be convinced to use them twice and then they tend to get used to the experience and appear to like it.

Thursday, January 7, 2016

Get Your Disabled Crane Back on Track

When you deal with overhead cranes, you're talking big equipment for big jobs. Your machines have to hold up under extreme conditions and they're taking on heavy loads with every job. Wear and tear is unavoidable. When you face a breakdown in the middle of an important job, it can have major repercussions. Any delays affect your crew, your client, and the long list of jobs that are waiting for you down the line. Time is money. The more you waste waiting to get your overhead crane fixed, the more you lose. If you can't live up to expectations, it can damage your reputation. You need to get your overhead cranes up and running as soon as possible to keep everything on an even keel.

Be Proactive

The best way to avoid costly delays is to be proactive. Be prepared for common issues by stocking up on extra parts. Have a go-to source like that you can count on when you are in a jam. When problems crop up, don't hesitate to get online or call customer service to fill your order as quickly as possible. If you're fortunate, you'll catch minor problems before they become major hassles. Have a back-up crane that can be put to work while another machine is getting repairs. Don't let a delay derail your entire job.

Don't Forget Routine Maintenance

Your overhead cranes need attention just like your everyday vehicles. You need to inspect all of your machines regularly to look for any signs of damage. Take good care of your equipment and replace parts on a regular basis before you run into trouble. Have a good repair person on staff or someone you can call in a moment's notice.

Consider Refurbishing Your Equipment

If your overhead cranes are older, your business could benefit by modernizing your machines. You can enhance your equipment and make it more effective. Overhead cranes have to be tough enough to perform. Regular upgrades are good alternative when you don't want to invest in a new machine. You can make the most of what you have by making mechanical, structural, or electrical improvements. If you don't know how to make improvements, take your overhead crane to the experts to give it an overhaul, ensuring that you will be able to meet your deadlines when push comes to shove.

Friday, January 1, 2016

Some Common Mistakes People Make When Planning for Retirement

Focus on Dreams of Retirement 

Retirement could be some several years ahead but how you handle your finances would determine how efficiently you could manage your post-retirement life. Focusing on dreams of retirement could be the initial step, where planning and working towards your dream goals could eventually lead you there. Often there seems to be some errors which can be avoid in reaching your goal.

Refraining from creating a retirement road map

A retirement road map needs to be done in order to know what the person may want to do, how much is needed to save and how one would intend achieving their goals. The best way to map the retirement plan is to envisage what the retired years ahead would look like, which will provide an idea on how to be prepared for the same.

No knowledge on how much is needed at the time of retirement 

An individual at the age of 55 has plans of retiring at 60 and has saved around 50 lakhs for his retirement. But in order to maintain his present lifestyle for the future, he needs to have a saving of at least Rs 3 crores. Having just five years to retire with shortage of Rs 2.5 crores, he may face difficulties in the future.

Not investing early 

Mr A and Mr B had followed a disciplined process of investing and both had invested Rs 10,000 each year. But Mr B had started investing at the age of 25 and had stopped at the age of 35 while Mr A had started investing at the age of 35 and had continued till the age of 65. When both of them retired at 65, Mr B would have as much as 2.5 times the amount as Mr A inspite of him investing for only 10 years in comparison to Mr A who had invested for 30 years. This is known as the power of compounding. The effect of compounding is appreciated when adequate time is given for the money to grow. The sooner one starts saving, the earlier you can retire.

Not including the possibilities like health care expenses in retirement plan 

Medical expenses during retirement are the most common possibility which is needed to be taken in consideration. A single medical bill could drain out the savings in one go. One should ensure that some emergency funds are assigned to handle the health care expenses in old age. Post retirement, ensure on the factors of the costs of medical insurance and health care expenses and plan for retirement corpus.

Avoiding in making intelligent investment decisions 

Mr A had invested in a bank FD which offered a 9% return and though it seemed to match inflation rate, he did not check into account the impact of taxes on his returns. Being in the 30% tax bracket, his net return fell a bit over 6% less than the inflation rate. Investments can be done in company shares or equity mutual funds which would give the inflation a beating return in the long term that will help in hastening up the retirement corpus growth as well as get started with lower monthly savings. While planning for retirement, it is essential to apprehend where one would want to be, to know what one needs to do to reach their goal.