Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Rebound on Wall Street

Wall Street started the week with much fanfare, the New York Stock Exchange showing a marked increase in closing Monday. The stock market has primarily benefited from the publication of an indicator highlighting the resilience of consumption in the United States, while the financial consequences of Hurricane Irene could be scaled down.

At the final bell, the Dow Jones progressed and 2.26% at 11,539 points while the Nasdaq and Standard & Poor's 500 respectively go up showed an increase of 3.32% to 2562 points and 1210 points to 2.83%. Note particularly the crossing by the Standard & Poor's 500 threshold of 1200 points, something that had not been seen since last two weeks. The Nasdaq has still increased by 4.3% last week after a month of fall, and shows up its fifth session in six sessions.
Its level has now reached the highest since Aug. 3.

Main factors of such a surge: investors seem reassured by the amount of the first estimates of the damage caused by Hurricane Irene, which has struck the United States. While some initial projections exceeded 10 billion, the company's risk management Eqecat has estimated for its damage to 5 or 7 billion. Also note that consumer spending of households in the United States rebounded in July, growth proving to be greater than expected (0.8%).


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Overall decline in Credit Default Swap

According to Markit, the Credit Default Swap (CDS) debt-related peripheral countries in the Euro area showed an overall decline. Markets appear to be satisfied and policies in Spain and Italy, as investors thus less prone to risk aversion.

But caution is still required while Greece is still alone, strong concerns weighing on a possible non-application of the second aid package awarded to Athens. Thus, the CDS (insurance against nonpayment) of the Greek debt to five years have now reached 2,200 basis points, up 92 bps.

The Credit Default Swap with the same maturity on the Italian debt has meanwhile declined by 19 bps to 360 bps, a few hours before the auction by Italy of eight billion Euros of debt. CDS Spanish were down for their 14-bps to 362 bps. The 10-year rate in Spain was changing and in turn to 5.04%, against a record 6.45% last August 2. Regarding Ireland, the decline is 32 basis points to 805 basis points.

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Monday, August 29, 2011

Gold, The Misfortune Of One is The Happiness of Others

The misfortune of one is again the happiness of others ... and vice versa. After passing record after record, the "favor" of the crisis in the United States and the European Union, the price of gold has suffered these last hours of renewed investor confidence international markets.

The ounce of gold has dropped sharply Wednesday, falling below the $ 1,800 in a sharp drop of nearly 8%. While it is however necessary to correlate the thing, remembering that the day before the gold price reached a new record high trading at more than 1,900 dollars, a trend following a wave of profit taking after the outbreak observed in recent days.

By 1430 GMT, the price of an ounce of gold has tumbled to 1761.28 dollars on the spot market, dropping more than 150 dollars compared to a record 1,913.50 dollars recorded on Tuesday in exchange Asian.

Investors appear to have diverted a time of gold and its safe haven qualities, reassured by the increase observed on the European stock markets, it following the announcement of a rebound in durable goods orders in July higher than expected.

Also note that the Shanghai Gold Exchange, China market of precious metals, said Tuesday it had increased its "margin calls" - the amounts that investors must file with the operator for each position in a futures contract - making of facto less attractive investments in gold.

While the August 11, the CME, the exchange operator COMEX, New York market of precious metals, already noted by 22% its "margin calls", passing $ 7,425 per contract, some seem to fear a further increase. Sensing a desire to remove the "weak hands" who lack cash.

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Sunday, August 28, 2011

Sad record of youth unemployment in Italy

Is it only consolation? While France recorded an increase of job seekers, Italy is no exception ... since according to a study released Wednesday by Confartigianato, the Italian federation of craftsmen, the Italian nation has one of the youth unemployment rate the highest in Europe and the highest in the age group under 35. According to the report of Confartigianato, Italy has more than one million unemployed under the age of 35, corresponding to a rate of 15.9%.

The problem is particularly acute in the 15-24 age group with a rate of 27.8% recorded in June by the European Institute Eurostat, the European average for it’s around 20.3%. Remember, however, that Spain, the unemployment rate for under 25 reached 45.7% while it is 33.3% in Slovakia. Like what everything is relative ...

Looking specifically the portion of the age of 35, the number of young people with jobs fell by 926,000 units between 2008 and 2011. The Italian institute of statistics Istat for its part told that Italy had in the first quarter of 2011, 1.152 million of unemployed under 35 years. Unemployment is especially in the Mezzogiorno located south of the peninsula with a rate of 21.1%, representing 538,000 unemployed youth. Sicily has the highest with a rate of 28%, reports Confartigianato ... regardless of undeclared ...

For businesses, non-standard contracts can get rid of the tax burden. The absence of effective measures for reducing employment opportunities for young people to find a decent job is the main reason. Note, however, all age groups combined, the unemployment rate in Italy is one of the lowest in Europe, reaching 8% in June against 9.9% in the euro area over the same period. Young Italians seem to somewhat stalled, only 47% of them hoping to get a full-time contract. Ironically, while the young end of the Arab Spring sees Italy as a veritable paradise, 98,000 young Italians would be willing to emigrate to find work.

For the record, according to information provided by the Italian Interior Ministry in a circular to the Chamber of Deputies dated August 3, 2011, 51,881 immigrants set foot on Italian soil during the first seven months of the 2011. Of these, 24,854 are from Tunisia, 23,890 are from Libya and the rest of sub-Saharan Africa. Such an "effective" equals the number of immigrants recorded during 1999, a year marked by war in Kosovo.

Shares and Bonds

When we purchase a share of stock, we are in fact getting ownership in the company in which we are investing. As a result, we share in both the profits and losses of the company the whole time the years. We’d probably want to pay attention to news that affects both the market and the economy in general. A bond does not embody ownership in a corporation where as stock entitles you. The company may sell bonds as an alternative to issuing stock. Rather than owning a piece of the company, the bondholder becomes a creditor the company. The company will be paying back over the life of the bond. The difference is that the return you will earn on your money as a bondholder is generally a fixed percentage annually. If the bond is for 5 years, you will get interest each year for the next 5 years, and then our investment returned to you at termination date. In the short term, we lose money in the stock market than the bond market.

Certification of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner

After much discussion and delays, U.S. and European authorities have certified the plane long-haul Boeing 787 Dreamliners. Recall that the first aircraft flight took place December 15, 2009. The latter is designed to carry between 210 and 330 passengers depending on configuration. The manufacturer has received approval from the Federal Aviation Administration in the U.S. (FAA) and European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), the latter indicating that the device meets all the regulations in force.

The Japanese airline All Nippon Airways (ANA) for its previously announced it would take formal possession on September 25 of the first copy of the aircraft. It's about time! Since delivery will still be more than three years behind schedule, According to estimates by experts external to the builder, the project has incurred cost overruns of several billion dollars.

The construction of the Dreamliner is indeed a challenge to Boeing, the production process including making composite materials with the aim to reduce the device and reduce its fuel consumption.

However, composites do not follow the same laws as aluminum. If they have undeniable qualities, they are however not free from defects. The development of the wing and the point of attachment of the wing to the fuselage and have posed serious challenges to engineers. At present, the device has already been 827 orders. Boeing expects to produce ten copies per month by the end of 2013. United Continental Holdings, formed by the merger of Continental Airlines and United Air Lines, should receive its first Boeing 787 Dreamliner in early 2012; the assembly phase of the unit has already started in Everett, in the State of Washington.

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Hurricane Irene could also add the financial woes of the United States

Not life grand? Hurricane Irene has not yet reached the coasts of the United States that some experts argue already figures on the possible financial consequences of its passage. According to Kinetic Analysis, a firm that develops computer models of any damage that may be caused by bad weather, the weather event could cause up to twelve billion dollars in damage on the east coast of the United States if the projected path by Meteorologists official is confirmed.

If I were cynical, I could say that the situation would represent almost a "windfall" for Obama, the financial damage caused by storms may eventually merge with the negative consequences of lack of rigor of the American government on the management of public deficits. According to the national hurricane center based in Miami, Irene has to hit North Carolina Saturday and Sunday back to New York where "a very dangerous storm" could lead to rising water 3 to 4 meters.

If one believes Chuck Watson; director of research for Kinetic Analysis, this scenario would be the worst possible in current situation. It is true according to an estimate made by NASA from satellite observations; Irene has a diameter of about 820 km, equivalent to nearly a third of the total length of the U.S. east coast (2675 km).

The probability that the hurricane hit New York at the height of its intensity remains small, then context would reduce the "bill", the damage in this case could "be limited" to a range between 5 and 10 billion. The firm is nevertheless clear that a difference of 30 km of where the center of the storm will strike "can literally double the value of the damage."Kinetic Analysis shows "If it goes directly to the City of New York, even a low-intensity hurricane could easily cause one billion of losses".

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ECB Purchased 14.291 € Billion Of Bonds

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced Monday it had bought for 14.291 billion Euros of government bonds of countries in the euro area from 11 to 17 August. Its previous "purchases" were $ 22 billion the previous week. The ECB also held Tuesday a tender for deposits to a week to absorb excess liquidity caused by these operations.

August 19, its purchases of government bonds totaled 110.5 billion Euros, these measures within the scope of its outstanding program reactivated in August. Even if the ECB did not want to disclose more information about the origin of the securities purchased, it seems that the Central Bank has acquired principally Spanish and Italian bonds, continuing its policy last week.

Not surprisingly, when it's soaring rates applicable to the debt of Spain and Italy leading the institution to reactivate its procurement processes of public debt, in order to try to contain the contagion of the crisis. Overall, the ECB has bought 110.5 billion euros of shares since May 2010.

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Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Was The United States Victim of The Collapse Of Euro?

The Euro, the fall guy accused of all evil.... Including the US markets tumbled? Not avoiding any scheme - as heavy as it is - Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the U.S. central bank (Fed) said in Washington that the euro was "decaying”.... Even better than the misadventures of the European currency was explaining the current difficulties in the U.S. economy.

Not life grand? Still, many Americans could join forces with his words ... history to find a culprit. According to Greenspan, European banks are in trouble because they hold debt securities in countries such as Greece. "The reason we are so slow is the level of uncertainty" caused by this situation, he said bluntly in an analysis still a bit fast....

A few days ago, Jacques Delors, former president of the European Commission - who initiated the single market - and former Minister of the French economy has in turn criticized the policy of the leaders of the euro against the current crisis. Believing nothing less than the single currency and the European Union would be "the brink".

History to put the record straight ... Still remembers that Alan Greenspan was one of the main instigators of financial deregulation in the United States. Which is widely considered to have “contributed” to the outbreak of the crisis?

The former head of the Fed, however, still dismissed the "allegations" of economists saying that the policy of low rates led the Fed from 2003 to 2005 is largely responsible for the housing bubble, which burst caused an unprecedented crisis.

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Germany was it in turn impacted by the crisis in European Union?

Indeed, the Zew barometer that measures the confidence of German financial circles in the country's economic outlook for the next six months, has again declined in August, for the sixth time in a row. The barometer has reached Zew - 37.6 points in August, after posting - 15.1 points in July.

The fact is all the more striking that the index had not fallen as sharply since October 2008, during which he had lost 21.9 points from the previous month, hit hard by the impact of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Also note that the current drop is greater than analysts' estimates, which had forecast an index standing at -26 points.

The indicator is now suffering the backlash of concerns about German growth, which slowed sharply in the second quarter. Last week, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) and has the resolve to announce that German gross domestic product (GDP) was only marginally increased by 0.1% over the first quarter. If investors hold a positive view of course the current economic situation in Germany, but it is much worse than the previous month.

It is true that if Germany is often seen as a champion of exports, foreign trade made a negative contribution to GDP in Germany last spring, as imports exceeded exports. "Private consumption and investment in construction also slowed the German economy in the second quarter," had also then said the Statistical Office. According to a survey released recently, the Germans would doubt increasing the capacity of Chancellor Angela Merkel to solve the financial crisis.

They are in fact 55% have had "little confidence" and 20% "no confidence" in the conservative-liberal coalition government out of the euro-zone turbulence that wave now. Main objections put forward by the survey: "the Germans aspire to clear positions on the part of leaders and now it is not the case," said Richard Hilmer, director of Infratest Dimap. In other words, the German citizens expect a clear plan, and their demands are not met at present.

The question is whether the second quarter sounds sort of the end of the German economic miracle, and if Germany could in turn fall into the throes of recession.

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Monday, August 22, 2011

Online Banking Part.II

The only entities that have managed to sustain their existence are those that are backed by a bank, maintaining an independent identity. This allowed them to diversify their services, taking advantage of operational know-how and organization of their parent and thus offer very attractive prices. Boursorama is a convincing example of this model. Since its merger with Society General, Boursorama is no longer confined to the business broker but has become a real bank.

However, if the online bank has no place as an organization independent financial, recent operations have shown that online banking is now essential to any actor with a network. New entrants in the banking landscape have understood. Insurers having embarked on the adventure of assurfinance began with an offer to acquire or develop online banking in addition to the existing branch network.

The acquisition of online banks by banks should not be seen as a way to computerize the customer relationship. Indeed, banks are seeking to boost their network by opening branches. The agency is the best way to attract customers, offering Internet users the ability to simplify the management of operations.

However some players have managed to build a profitable business model around online banking service. This model is based on tactical development articulated in two phases:

(I) a startup focused on specialized and profitable activities. For example, the tactic is to capture customer deposits and generate commissions on high value added activities (securities, life insurance ...) and for which the customer is willing to pay.

(Ii) enlargement to daily banking activities (current accounts, credit card) which are less profitable because of investments in infrastructure require significant yield little and are subject to very strong competition.

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Friday, August 19, 2011

Online Banking Part.I

The acquisition of Egg by Citigroup shall deliver to the agenda the question of the model of online banks. Founded in 1998 by Prudential, Egg has always been deficient - the French branch was sold in 2004 to Auchan in the development of banking activities and never managed to achieve the objectives in terms of customers. This is the situation common to most of the independent online banks. However, their creation in the late 1990s, online banks seemed to have a promising future thanks to the Internet phenomenon. How to explain such a setback?

At the beginning, the online banks were intended to attract a large clientele (Egg counted on a portfolio of 1 million customers in 2003, five years after its creation) by proposing a new banking model: an account management possible at any time and from any Internet-connected computer, with an offer "discount". Using the Internet as the only interface between the bank and the customer had to allow significant savings, both in terms of personnel but also capital assets. Thus, online banks offer rates were very aggressive on a range of services equivalent to that of a traditional bank. However, they failed to offer prices low enough to stand out, to forget the absence of physical relationship between the customer and the banker, and manage to capture some of the customers used to a classical model.

Weakened by the explosion of the Internet bubble in 2000, online banks could not withstand the intensity of competition in the banking sector, especially as traditional banks, although behind the banks line, developed or acquired equivalent services. The interest of a "pure player" of online banking has therefore been questioned since it was possible to combine customer relationship in a network, and maximum flexibility via the Internet.

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Wednesday, August 17, 2011

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