Tuesday, February 23, 2010

A big bear market is looming in Global Markets

In the earlier post, in which we have written about Dubai and we have stated that this was the tip of the iceberg. Now we are hearing about Greece crisis. Greece is on the verge of collapse financially.

What is happening in Greece and will it end with Greece, or will it take further toll? The answer to this happen is, yes, the toll is likely to continue in coming months. Below I have given the technical reason for that.

Since 1929, there was not a big bear market in the world Markets. We have seen bear markets during the past twenty years, but, they were not as worst as the bear market in 1929. Various Technical studies say we are likely to see a big bear market of that magnitude in near future.

Any market would undergo a correction of larger degree every 100 years. Since 1929, we have not seen any major bear market like that. The 2000 dot com bubble burst and 2008 reality bubble burst are foretelling a big correction ahead.

Be prepared for it.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Trading is a Business

I have been a trader in stock Market for the past 10 years. Whenever I introduce myself as a stock market trader to any new people, they just blink at me and look at me somewhat skeptical at me. The reason is simple. If you are a trader in a speculative market, people look at you as gambler.

Gambling is different from speculation. Playing cards and betting on horses is a gamble. In this two, you are betting on a thing whose performance is not in your command. You are betting on a performance, not on any asset.

But in trading, you are putting money on an asset i.e. stock. The money you have invested in market is backed by the fundamentals of the company. More over you would have invested in that stock after analyzing the performance of the stock fundamentally and technically.

So, here the outcome is predictable. But in gambling the outcome is not predictable. So if the outcome is predictable, then how can we say it is gambling if we trade in stocks.

Every business is risky. The same risk is associated with trading in stocks also. Then why some body say it as gambling. So, stock trading is also a business as some other business.

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Friday, February 5, 2010

Has the Gold prices topped out?

Ever since gold made a high around 1220 USD, it is declining from that level and recently it touched a low around 1050. Is this the high for another 5 years? or will it rally again above 1220 to make a new high in coming months? This is a million dollar question right now?

Almost all the fund managers and Analyst are bullish on gold and they are advising their clients to buy gold as investments. The consumption of Gold by China has exceeded the consumption of India. And it is being stated as one reason for the rise in Gold. And also it is been said by Market pundits that many central Banks would also start buying Gold for hedging purposes.

Irrespective of this, what does Technical Analysis say about future price of Gold. Technical Analysis would really predict the future course of the Gold Market. We have seen in many Markets, the top would be formed, when everybody is bullish. So once everybody has invested in Gold, surely the prices are going to decline. No market would continue to rally or decline forever. The markets need to consolidate while rallying or declining.

As the same case, the Gold market has to top out somewhere now or then. But going by the technical analysis, it says a top is already formed. So, in the future, Gold is unlikely to move above 1220 at least for another5 years. From here, it is going to decline further towards 800 USD in coming years.

Be careful when it comes to investing in Gold.