Gold Snaps Seven-Day Rally

Gold Dropped – Investors opt for Uncertain Equity Assets

Gold dropped on Friday as investors opted for the uncertain equity assets after some mixed economic data from U.S and the fluctuating dollar. However, gold future gained 1% for the week and the favourite metal continued making strong gains because of its appeal for the past two days even though global equity markets seemed low amidst the confusion in Yemen.

Earlier gold rallied after officials from Federal Reserve officials’ commented that U.S interest rates would stay at zero for some time till September. In the meantime, focus of the investors was on the comments from the Fed Chief Janet Yellen who planned to address the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Conference and would be delivering a note entitled, `The New Normal for Monetary Policy,’ before the close of markets.

Ms Yellen’s speech is planned at 7.45 pm GMT where traders would be listening for some indication on when the Fed would start tightening monetary policy. According to Senior Manager Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank, he states that `Yellen has been accused of being too dovish and probably she wants to react by making her speech sound a little less dovish’.

Adjustment from Ultra-Loss Monetary Policy

The Presidents of the St. Louis Fed and Atlanta Fed, at separate events on Thursday said an adjustment away from ultra-loose monetary policy would be needed due to US economy’s improvement since 2007-09 financial crises. By 3.24 pm GMT, spot gold has eased 0.5% to $1,197.70 an ounce and the metal increased to 2% on Thursday to its highest since March 2 at $1,219.40 due to reaction to tensions in the Middle East.

The gold futures of US fell from $7.90 to $1,196.70 an ounce for April delivery. On Wednesday, Saudi Arabia and its associates had launched air strikes in Yemen rattling broader markets and backing gold which is usually seen as an assurance against any risk. Julius Baer, head of commodity research Norbert Ruecker commented that `Geopolitics has never been something which could set a trend in gold prices; it only causes a short term deviation from the existing trend’.

Inspite of the Friday’s losses, gold was back on track to finish the week up at 1.3% after its seven day rally and the metal’s longest winning stretch since August 2012.

Holdings Dropped by 6 Tonnes

Gold showed gains after the Fed signalled caution at its policy meeting last week on the pace of interest rate increase prompting the dollar to drop from multiyear high and a violent rate rise path could affect the demand for gold which is a non-interest paying asset.Caution by the investor was obvious as SPDR Gold Trust, which is the world’s largest gold backed exchange traded fund, post outflows continued and holdings dropped nearly by 6 tonnes on Thursday to 737.24 tonnes which was the lowest since January.

As physical demand all over Asia slowed down, the long rally in prices discouraged most of the buyers. Palladium had lost by 3% to a two month decrease of $743.47 an ounce and platinum was low by 1.2% at $1,139.99 an ounce while silver dropped by 0.6% to $16.97 an ounce.

Stock Market Rebound Lowers Gold Prices

Gold Prices Lower

The bounce in the stock markets all over the world at the starting of the trading week has pressurized the U.S trading early on Monday, as reflected in the moderately lower gold prices. A bearish outside market phenomenon, which is working against these precious metals, is also the reason for the higher index of the U.S dollar on this day. At $1,210.00 an ounce, February Comet Gold was last down $12.50. At $1,210.25 an ounce, Spot Gold was last down $12.20. At $16.84 an ounce, March Comet Silver was last down $0.227.

Crude Oil’s Status

Due to last week’s selling pressure, the World Stock market prices were comparatively higher on Monday for corrective bounces. The past few weeks have seen plunging price of crude oil. This has frightened the stock markets, while the consumer at gasoline pumps have benefited.

The January Nymex crude posted a corrective bounce after falling to a five-year low of $56.25 overnight. Libya, a major oil-exporter, is limiting selling interest in oil, due to some fresh violence within the country, at the starting of the trading week.

Incidents over the World Affecting the Market

Not hovering much below its recent four-year high, The U.S dollar index was firmer on Monday. For the past few months, the bearish underlying factor for the sector of raw commodity has been the stronger greenback.

The Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, after his much expected and anticipated election victory on Sunday commented that he will continue in his endeavor to boost the Japanese economy, which is presently moribund.The terrorist situation in Sydney, Australia where a gunman is retaining hostages at a café is also being kept watched by the markets, in suspicion of terrorist links.

The FOMC Meeting

A meeting of Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) that is to be held this week for discussing the monetary policy of the U.S is being anticipated by the traders and investors. Many believe that the monetary policy hawks will be favored as the Fed meeting is expected to change the statement wording slightly.

A timeline to raise interest rates might also be further elaborated by the FOMCin the meeting, as the interest rates hasn’t been increased by the Fed in six years. U.S. economic data that is to be released on Monday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, NAHB housing market index, industrial production and capacity utilization and Treasury international capital data.

In the Near Future 

Technically, in order to lower chart consolidation after recent gains, the gold futures of February have seen sideways. The overall near-term technical advantage is still in possession of the bears. A closing above solid technical resistance during the December high of $1,239.00 is the next year-term upside price breakout objective of the gold bulls.

A closing of prices below solid technical support of $1,184.80 is the next downside near-term price breakout objective for the Bears. The first resistance is observed at $1,221.00 and then again at the overnight high of $1,225.00, while the first support is generally observed at the overnight low of $1,207.00 and then finally at $1,200.00.

Black Monday for the gold market!

The price of gold has lost nearly 10% until Monday and a additional fall under 1440 dollars an ounce, its lowest level in over two years, and headed for its biggest drop in two sessions since February 1983 , investors massively reducing their exposure to this market. The price of gold has fallen by nearly 13% in two days, a victim of the announcement of the sale of a portion of the gold of Cyprus, which could give ideas to other countries in need of resources budget. Market players also explain this collapse by the prospect of the Fed influence by the end of its monetary policy by reducing its liquidity in the markets, which in recent months have made one of the engines up. "We cannot get across the road in front of a train: the market must go to the end of the race," said Max Schubert, head of commodities Emirates NBD Bank in Dubai. For its part, Ole Hansen, senior manager at Saxo Bank, suggests accelerated liquidation of long positions (the positions taken that focus on higher prices) from investors in ETFs (exchange-traded funds) and selling hedge funds. The announcement Monday of a slower growth expected in China in the first quarter gave investors another reason to reduce their exposure to the commodities market. Oil and copper, for example, were also oriented in sharp decline. The gold on the "spot" market fell to a low of 1336.04 dollars an ounce before recovering slightly, to 9:20 p.m. GMT; it was trading at 1352.75 dollars, down nearly 8.54 % on Friday. Other precious metals were also affected by large movements of Sale: money is returned to its lowest level since October 2010, the lowest since platinum and palladium last August to its lowest level in three months. The decline in gold prices began their down trend nearly three weeks, and despite its status as neither a refuge nor the rising tension on the Korean Peninsula, or the shift of monetary policy the Bank of Japan could not reverse the motion. The announcement of the Cyprus will sell for € 400 million of gold reserves from its central bank has increased the movement last week. "Investors fear that Cyprus and set a precedent that other central banks to follow suit, and it is not a factor in reducing purchases because central banks have been a key driver of the rise in the gold years, "said Ole Hansen. Debate more lively on the evolution of Fed policy does not help. "We are now witnessing panic sales, which may explain the speculations on the support of the Fed. The Fed hinted that it could reduce the QE (quantitative easing) and this began confidence in gold, "said Dominic Schnider, an analyst at UBS Wealth Management.

The price of gold a victim of profit-taking

Once is not custom, gold has not benefited Monday from its role as a safe haven. Investors seem to have the contrary "relieved" of their investment in the precious metal to cover losses in other markets. By mid afternoon, the price of an ounce of gold was trading around 1820 dollars, while prices went up Friday to 1885.90 dollars.

On Tuesday, gold had even reached a record high of 1921.15 dollars. A surge that has allowed some to reap serious benefits and allowing them to absorb the consequences of their unfortunate investments.
Let us recall that an ounce of gold was still up 15% in a month. The surge in gold is also hampered the last few hours by the renewed strength of the dollar, the greenback Monday reaching its highest level in six months against the Euro. A situation that makes it less attractive raw material purchases denominated in U.S. currency.

Still, the phenomenon could be a passenger, uncertainties regarding the euro area accentuated a little more each day. It should be noted as well as the largest gold funds listed globally, SPDR Gold Trust, saw the level of its holdings increase by 10.5 tons during the single day of Friday to reach 1,241 tons now.

Has the Gold prices topped out?

Ever since gold made a high around 1220 USD, it is declining from that level and recently it touched a low around 1050. Is this the high for another 5 years? or will it rally again above 1220 to make a new high in coming months? This is a million dollar question right now?

Almost all the fund managers and Analyst are bullish on gold and they are advising their clients to buy gold as investments. The consumption of Gold by China has exceeded the consumption of India. And it is being stated as one reason for the rise in Gold. And also it is been said by Market pundits that many central Banks would also start buying Gold for hedging purposes.

Irrespective of this, what does Technical Analysis say about future price of Gold. Technical Analysis would really predict the future course of the Gold Market. We have seen in many Markets, the top would be formed, when everybody is bullish. So once everybody has invested in Gold, surely the prices are going to decline. No market would continue to rally or decline forever. The markets need to consolidate while rallying or declining.

As the same case, the Gold market has to top out somewhere now or then. But going by the technical analysis, it says a top is already formed. So, in the future, Gold is unlikely to move above 1220 at least for another5 years. From here, it is going to decline further towards 800 USD in coming years.

Be careful when it comes to investing in Gold.