Yellen The US is not a ‘Bubble Economy'

Yellen – Rebuffing Political Rhetoric – Bubble Ready to Burst

Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chair had touted recently on the strength of the United States economy, rebuffing political rhetoric recommending a bubble was ready to burst. Yellen noticing a healing labour market and a 5% headline unemployment number, had commented, `I certainly wouldn’t describe this as a bubble economy. Yellen had been on a panel with the earlier Fed Chairs Ben Bernanke, Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan at the International House in New York and the U.S. central bank heads had discussions on the U.S. economy as well as monetary policy all over the world.

Yellen’s comment came soon after the Republican presidential contender Donald Trump’s disagreement that an economic bubble would erupt. She noted that she did not see `imbalances’ like `clearly overvalues’ asset prices. Though Volcker acknowledged that he saw some overextended pieces of the financial system he agreed stating that he does not believe that a bubble exists. Yellen adds that the global economy has been seen as a comparatively weak growth inspite of the positive signs in the U.S. Restrained approach had been taken by the Fed on raising interest rates this year after raising its target for the first time in almost a decade, in December.

Fed to Watch Carefully – Occurring in Economy

This year the policy committee of the bank now tend to project two rate hikes. Yellen has stated that she does not consider the decision taken in December as a mistake, since indicators during that time portrayed substantial progress towards the Fed’s labour market as well as inflation goals. Going ahead, he noticed the Fed would watch very carefully what is occurring in the economy.

The Fed had dealt with drooping global economy and U.S. inflation below its target, since it decides on how quickly to increase rates. The tightening path of the Fed came as other central banks all over the world including those in Europe and Japan tend to have eased. The policy committee would meet next on April 26 and 27. Some of the observers of the Fed have quizzed on how the central bank would react to a probable recession with policy already accommodative.

Yellen’s Comments – U.S. Stock Market Futures Dropped

On Thursday, Bernanke noticed that the fiscal policy `does not have a role to play’ on top of monetary policy. Greenspan added that the monetary policy should not have the whole load of battling an economic slowdown but he warned against creating more debt with increased government spending.

Yellen had also addressed a recent crusade by Minneapolis Fed President Neel, Kashkari who had floated breaking up large banks to increase financial system stability. She had observed that she shared the concern of Kashkari regarding ending firms’ `too big to fail’ status. However, she stated that the policies such as capital and liquidity needs and stress tests have improved the safety and soundness of the banking system. She commented that she feels more positive on the progress made.

She was also of the belief that the issue is within the purview of Kashkari, noticing that the decentralized structure of the Fed enables independent views. In the wake of Ms Yellen’s comment, the U.S. stock market futures dropped as traders processed signs from the Fed chairman that she would be willing to follow increases in interest rates in the future.

U.S. Shows Impressive Growth in Third Quarter

U.S. economy is showing robust rate which has turned out to be beyond the expectation of the market analysts in the third quarter. Its better performance is accredited to the strengthening of its fundamentals which would help it in weather the slowing global demand. The U.S. economy has posted back-to back growth in second and third quarter for the first time in last 11 years. This shows that economy is in good health along with a great momentum which would help it generating more returns.

GDP Grows and Boosts Confidence

The Commerce Department has raised its estimate of the possible GDP growth to 3.9% annually from just 3.5 % which it assumed last month. If we combine the 4.6% gain of the second quarter then it would be best six-month growth stretch for the U.S. economy after 2003. The poor performance of the economy has been resulting from the Japanese recession, a weak and depleted euro zone as well the slowing Chinese economy.

Increased Consumer Spending

The consumer spending has increased considerably from just 1.8% to 2.2%. GDP report points out that the Households are spending at the retail stores than at on the auto fuels. Another major source of the economy’s growth is the increase in the business investment in procuring equipments from just 7.2 % to 10.7%. The national companies have also boosted their inventories which helped in adding $79.1 billion to the GDP instead of $62.8 billion.

U.S. economy has also suffered from the downside in the few months. Its exports growth has diminished from 7.8% to 4.9% due to slower growth in Europe and Asia chopping out a bite from the economy. Even the imports suffered and fell at a 0.7% annual rate which was earlier estimated to be 1.7%.

More Returns In Upcoming Days

The U.S. economy is right on track for adding more new jobs since 1999. Sectors related from manufacturing to retail would continue to gain strength in upcoming days. The decrease in the gasoline prices has fuelled to a renewed optimism about economy which is heading in the new year. Decrease in fuel price is helping the citizens to save $50 dollars more each year due to falling energy costs. Even the inflation rose at just 1.3% annual rate in the third quarter than the 2.3% in the last quarter.

Growth Momentum Likely To be Carried Forward

The second and third quarters have shown a commendable growth in wages and salaries. Economists believe that the bringing GDP based wages and salaries measures into line with the earnings figures had helped in forming a right response and idea.

U.S. stocks have shown a little change while the dollar has performed poorly against the other major currencies. Prices for the U.S. Treasury debt rose just marginally. U.S. economy is growing stringer by each passing day and it is clearly apparent from the rising numbers in the GDP. The economists believe that the economy is having a great momentum and this momentum could even be transferred into the final three months of the year.

The Euro strengthened against the Dollar !

The Euro strengthened against the dollar late Friday trading in New York , in a fearful market increasingly a budget impasse in the United States and attentive to the speech of several officials of the U.S. central bank. The euro bought 1.3519 dollars against 1.3485 dollars on Thursday at the same time. The European single currency fell against the Japanese currency to 132.88 yen against 133.51 yen yesterday. The dollar also fell against the Japanese currency to 98.24 yen against 99.00 yen on Thursday. Before a crucial deadline in the United States to reach an agreement on the budget of the country, “the clock is ticking and investors get nervous," commented an Economist. " They accelerate their sales dollars , fearing more a closure ( non-essential ) government affects the quality of U.S. assets and hinders growth," the expert added , citing expectations that a partial closure utilities for two weeks would reduce economic growth " 0.3 to 0.5% ." Elected officials must agree to the Congress to ensure continuity of government services on 1 October. A text passed in the Senate Friday is still pressed by the House of Representatives before returning to the Senate for a final vote. You always hope that a last-minute agreement is possible, but this prospect darkens every moment while Congress keeps the dollar and the economy in hostage.

In addition, the market is still uncertain as to when that will choose the Fed to begin to slow its purchases of assets ($ 85 billion per month). It will be based largely on the level of unemployment to make such a decision, which could happen in October or December. Investors therefore waiting for the next monthly report on employment and unemployment situation in the United States, a major indicator to gauge the strength of the recovery in the world's largest economy which is scheduled for publication on October 4. Uncertainties on Friday were reinforced by new interventions leaders and voting members of the Fed, which accentuated the pressure on the dollar. Faced with such remarks, bond rates declined significantly during the session and bringing with them the greenback.

The current Fed policy has the effect of keeping rates low and dilutes the value of the dollar. Traders also scrutinized Italy where resurfaced fears of a new political crisis and trying to take face saving measures. Around 2100 GMT, the British pound rose against the euro at 83.76 pence per euro and climbed against the dollar at 1.6137 dollar per pound. The Swiss franc rose against the euro at 1.2244 Swiss francs to the euro and against the dollar to 0.9052 Swiss francs to the dollar. The ounce of gold finished at $ 1,321.50 at auction Thursday night against 1333 dollars. The Chinese currency finished at 6.1186 Yuan against one dollar for 6.1206 Yuan yesterday.

New measures to support the American economy

The U.S. Federal Reserve, Central Bank of the United States (EDF) announced Wednesday that it would take further measures to support the U.S. economy, saying the resumption of the latter remained "slow". Among the measures: the sale by the end of June 2012 the equivalent of $ 400 billion in Treasury bills.


Subsequently, the Fed plans to buy an equivalent amount with a longer maturity in an attempt to lower interest rates and long-term power purchase real estate securities without increasing the size of its portfolio, the objective to support the mortgage market. The Fed also said it would keep its key interest rate near zero until mid-2013 if necessary.

On Tuesday, investors had taken for granted that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) announced shortly measures to resume, background likely to increase demand for raw materials. While opening the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Fed, investors are already betting on a new "Operation Twist", which is to lower interest rates in the long term to boost the activity without act on interest rates in the short term.

In fact, such an operation is to extend the maturity of securities held in the balance sheet, ten years and over, to reduce rates, evidence to boost business investment and household on the housing market. Such a measure Devit also have an immediate impact on prices by devaluing the dollar and increasing demand in emerging markets.

Oil prices on the increase

Oil-barrel prices rose sharply Wednesday in New York, boosted by the weather and a report from the Fed to say the least optimistic about U.S. growth. The recovery of strength in the stock markets will do the rest. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, a barrel of light sweet crude for October delivery had soared to well over 3.32 dollars Tuesday, up to now the value of 89.34 dollars. Meanwhile in London, the price of Brent North Sea for the same period was trading at 115.80 dollars on the Intercontinental Exchange, rising 2.91 dollars so.

The price of crude rose sharply at the opening as markets react strongly to climatic conditions observed in the Gulf of Mexico, a region where most of the platforms provide a quarter of the oil consumed in the country. Investors have largely responded to the report published by the Office of Management and regulation of ocean energy resources (http://www.cmegroup.com/company/nymex.htmlBOEMRE), the latter indicating that, indeed, if Tropical Storm Lee, who reached Sunday Louisiana had inflicted no major damage, the fact remained that 37% of oil extraction and 18% of gas extraction in the area remained suspended Wednesday.

Although significantly a lower percentages of the values observed the previous day but at a level totally unexpected. Note also a possible disruption of production in Mexico, second largest exporter of crude to the United States while the National Hurricane Center reports that a tropical cyclone could pass within 48 hours, with a probability of 70%.

The price per barrel will also be benefited with the surge in global stock markets observed Wednesday, London and Paris rising more than 3%, while Frankfurt soared more than 4%. Another positive: the report of conditions contained in the Beige Book Federal Reserve (Fed), economic activity in the United States continued to grow at a moderate pace. An ad that has the merit of ending the cycle of bad news experienced in recent times.

Hurricane Irene could also add the financial woes of the United States

Not life grand? Hurricane Irene has not yet reached the coasts of the United States that some experts argue already figures on the possible financial consequences of its passage. According to Kinetic Analysis, a firm that develops computer models of any damage that may be caused by bad weather, the weather event could cause up to twelve billion dollars in damage on the east coast of the United States if the projected path by Meteorologists official is confirmed.

If I were cynical, I could say that the situation would represent almost a "windfall" for Obama, the financial damage caused by storms may eventually merge with the negative consequences of lack of rigor of the American government on the management of public deficits. According to the national hurricane center based in Miami, Irene has to hit North Carolina Saturday and Sunday back to New York where "a very dangerous storm" could lead to rising water 3 to 4 meters.

If one believes Chuck Watson; director of research for Kinetic Analysis, this scenario would be the worst possible in current situation. It is true according to an estimate made by NASA from satellite observations; Irene has a diameter of about 820 km, equivalent to nearly a third of the total length of the U.S. east coast (2675 km).

The probability that the hurricane hit New York at the height of its intensity remains small, then context would reduce the "bill", the damage in this case could "be limited" to a range between 5 and 10 billion. The firm is nevertheless clear that a difference of 30 km of where the center of the storm will strike "can literally double the value of the damage."Kinetic Analysis shows "If it goes directly to the City of New York, even a low-intensity hurricane could easily cause one billion of losses".

US debts and the Chinese pressure!!!

China one of the largest creditor of the United States recently urged Washington to take a precautionary measures to safe guard the investors. This was given after Standard and Poor, the debt rating agency of US gave the warning. On Monday Standard and Poor’s showed the negative views about the debt situation in US. Apart from budget deficits, the main reason was no clear policy to resolve the issue.

The US government has challenged the sensational negative announcement of Standard and Poor’s views, and said the agency had under estimated the government’s efficiency. The fact remains that this deterioration in the U.S. took effect on global trade, the Shanghai falling by 1.91% Tuesday.

 According to the US government, as on August 2010, China had a total of 868.4 billion dollars in U.S. Treasuries. Hence China fears that any explosion of US debt will further weaken the American dollar which will result in a de facto devaluation of Treasury bills held by China.

By posting a negative outlook, Standard & Poor's warning seems to Beijing on the inability of U.S. policy to contain the situation, context likely to impact significantly the value of Chinese investment in dollars or even encourage an overhaul of global financial system currently focused on the dollar.

Some analysts however said China appears to have little choice, its accumulation of foreign currency forcing it to invest more than $ 50 billion out of the territory each month. Indeed there are some more alternative markets of sufficient size as that of US market is there to accommodate the Chinese fund.

Can we see revival of American Economy during Obama’s Presidency?

Ever Since, Mr.Obama took over the presidency of USA, the US Stock Markets saw a deep correction followed by sharp rally. But it is well below the highs of 2007. The US Stock Market Index Dow Jones Index made a high around 15000, in 2007. But it is trading around 10,500 now.

The Economy is gauged by the stock Market Indices in any country. So, if we want to know the future state of the Economy, study of Stock Indices would reveal the real picture. So, if Stock Indices behave well during his Presidency, than the Economy is going to perform well.

The Dow Jones made a high of 15000 in 2007. If the US economy performs well in his tenure, then Dow is going to move above 15000. Is it possible for Dow to move above this level? If so, then he will be recorded as one of the best performed President in USA history.

Let me examine the possibility in detail. Stock Markets behave in cycles. If you see a five rally then it will be followed by some period of correction. Normally, bearish periods are more in time than bullish periods, which means, Dow Jones has to remain in bearish mode for another 5 years.

Since Obama’s term will end in another 3 years, the chances are less for the Dow Jones to move above 15000 which in turn unlikely for the US economy to grow in the next three years.

If this happens and if Obama doesn’t get a second term, then he may go down in the history as an unpopular President of USA.