Does the Euro Have A Future

Debt Crisis – Important Failings in Design of Eurozone

Debt crisis in Europe had indicated the important failings in the design of Eurozone and predictions stating that the growth would be returning have not done much to inspire confidence according to Emma Alberici. Top economists and politicians besides Former Chancellors Alistair Darling, Nigel Lawson and Norman Lamont convey that the Eurozone cannot survive in its current form.

 During the interviews and articles for The Independent today, they were questioned on their short-term as well as long term prediction for the future of the euro. Though several are of the opinion that the Eurozone could be surviving the current Greek debt crisis particularly, if the political will invest in preventing disorderly default, none are confident that it would stay on.

They are of the belief that the new European Fiscal Compact that has been agreed in principle recently is unmanageable since it would take key financial powers from the national government as well as their electorates. Several of the economists and the politicians have disapproved the rush to strictness imposed on Italy and Greece recommending that it would be counter-productive by depressing growth and competitive imbalances among Eurozone members would be difficult to overcome. They had recommended that the ultimate consequence of the crisis would be quite a smaller Eurozone with Germany at the centre and countries like Greece, Italy, Ireland and Portugal on the external.

ECB Dropped Official Interest

As per Budget Papers `recent policy action in Europe has meant that some of the worst crisis risks have abated since the end of 2012 and global conditions are expected to gradually improve’. It is now over a year since Mario Draghi, European Central Bank President, had been credited with saving Europe by informing financial markets that he would do `whatever it would take’, to save the euro, which scarcely counts as `policy action’ and Mario’s subsequent move are still to yield any apparent success.

ECB had dropped official interests to 0.5 percent for the Eurozone and the Central Bank also had indicated that it was `technically ready’, to cut the deposit rate from the prevailing zero percent to negative territory. It would need the ECB to charge banks for safeguarding the money which would make it smart for the banks to extend credit to household as well as businesses instead of holding their money in Frankfurt, which is at the ECB headquarters.

Lower interest rate do not boost growth as they did early since people in Europe and Australia tend to be extra cautious when it comes to borrowing. With unemployment in the Eurozone, having a record of 12.1 percent, smaller numbers of people tend to have the capacity of repaying the loans they may have.

Severity – An Anti-Growth Approach 

All over Europe, severity has been considered as an anti-growth approach though no reliable alternative has come up to bring back life in the 17 countries that tend to share a currency. Vice president of the European Commission responsible for the euro, Olli Rehn, sounded the only strong note of optimism and predicted that the currency would emerge stronger from the crisis.

He stated that they would be undertaking nothing less than an economic reformation of Europe and step by step, they would be creating financial stability and the conditions for sustainable growth and job creation. However Mr Darling commented that he does not thing anyone could realistically say the Eurozone would survive with its present membership and the longer the inaction goes on, the greater the chance that one or more countries would be forced out.

Eurozone not About to Collapse but Survive …..?

Professor of Economics, Dartmouth College, Danny Blanchflower, commented that `the fundamental problem which has not been addressed is that there is no growth plan for Greece and even if a new loan is given to them, they will have no means of paying it back. The markets seem to have been priced in an orderly default.

The problem lies in a disorderly default which means default and exit for Greece. There seems to be moments to play out at the final hour though two and a half years down, he has little confidence that there would be an orderly way out’.Professor of Economics, New York University, Nouriel Roubini states his opinion that `the Eurozone is a slow motion train wreck.

 Not only Greece, other countries too are bankrupt. There is a 50% probability that over the next three to five years, the Eurozone will break up. Not all the members are able to stay. Greece and probably Portugal may exit the Eurozone, Greece within the next 12 months while Portugal would take a while longer.

According to Jim O’Neil, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Former head of global economic research at the bank states that `the reality is that too many countries joined the euro in the first place and ultimately without dramatic change, they can’t probably survive. According to some the Eurozone is not about to collapse but whether it could be constant over the long term is not known.

The Euro strengthened against the Dollar !

The Euro strengthened against the dollar late Friday trading in New York , in a fearful market increasingly a budget impasse in the United States and attentive to the speech of several officials of the U.S. central bank. The euro bought 1.3519 dollars against 1.3485 dollars on Thursday at the same time. The European single currency fell against the Japanese currency to 132.88 yen against 133.51 yen yesterday. The dollar also fell against the Japanese currency to 98.24 yen against 99.00 yen on Thursday. Before a crucial deadline in the United States to reach an agreement on the budget of the country, “the clock is ticking and investors get nervous," commented an Economist. " They accelerate their sales dollars , fearing more a closure ( non-essential ) government affects the quality of U.S. assets and hinders growth," the expert added , citing expectations that a partial closure utilities for two weeks would reduce economic growth " 0.3 to 0.5% ." Elected officials must agree to the Congress to ensure continuity of government services on 1 October. A text passed in the Senate Friday is still pressed by the House of Representatives before returning to the Senate for a final vote. You always hope that a last-minute agreement is possible, but this prospect darkens every moment while Congress keeps the dollar and the economy in hostage.

In addition, the market is still uncertain as to when that will choose the Fed to begin to slow its purchases of assets ($ 85 billion per month). It will be based largely on the level of unemployment to make such a decision, which could happen in October or December. Investors therefore waiting for the next monthly report on employment and unemployment situation in the United States, a major indicator to gauge the strength of the recovery in the world's largest economy which is scheduled for publication on October 4. Uncertainties on Friday were reinforced by new interventions leaders and voting members of the Fed, which accentuated the pressure on the dollar. Faced with such remarks, bond rates declined significantly during the session and bringing with them the greenback.

The current Fed policy has the effect of keeping rates low and dilutes the value of the dollar. Traders also scrutinized Italy where resurfaced fears of a new political crisis and trying to take face saving measures. Around 2100 GMT, the British pound rose against the euro at 83.76 pence per euro and climbed against the dollar at 1.6137 dollar per pound. The Swiss franc rose against the euro at 1.2244 Swiss francs to the euro and against the dollar to 0.9052 Swiss francs to the dollar. The ounce of gold finished at $ 1,321.50 at auction Thursday night against 1333 dollars. The Chinese currency finished at 6.1186 Yuan against one dollar for 6.1206 Yuan yesterday.

The Greek private sector can derail the European agreement?

 

If one agrees to consider that the exchange "voluntary" 206 billion euros of private sector bonds into new bonds to meet with thirty years of acceptance from 75 to 80%, 10-15% of the issue necessary to achieve the 90% level for the operation announced a new dimension. It would appear, according to the Financial Times that the Greek pension funds and funds of the unions would pray. However, they have a thirty billion of Greek sovereign bonds, such as the 15% needed to achieve 90% or more.

Was The United States Victim of The Collapse Of Euro?

The Euro, the fall guy accused of all evil.... Including the US markets tumbled? Not avoiding any scheme - as heavy as it is - Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the U.S. central bank (Fed) said in Washington that the euro was "decaying”.... Even better than the misadventures of the European currency was explaining the current difficulties in the U.S. economy.

Not life grand? Still, many Americans could join forces with his words ... history to find a culprit. According to Greenspan, European banks are in trouble because they hold debt securities in countries such as Greece. "The reason we are so slow is the level of uncertainty" caused by this situation, he said bluntly in an analysis still a bit fast....

A few days ago, Jacques Delors, former president of the European Commission - who initiated the single market - and former Minister of the French economy has in turn criticized the policy of the leaders of the euro against the current crisis. Believing nothing less than the single currency and the European Union would be "the brink".

History to put the record straight ... Still remembers that Alan Greenspan was one of the main instigators of financial deregulation in the United States. Which is widely considered to have “contributed” to the outbreak of the crisis?

The former head of the Fed, however, still dismissed the "allegations" of economists saying that the policy of low rates led the Fed from 2003 to 2005 is largely responsible for the housing bubble, which burst caused an unprecedented crisis.

The euro is still down because of the Greek debt

The euro is still down penalized and remains under 1.44 dollars. This decrease is due to contamination of the single currency by the debt crisis that has invaded Greece and continues to do its thing. An urgent solution is needed!

After the decline experienced by the euro last Friday, the Euro has not had his best performance this Monday either. It seems that money is slow to find its stability. The Arab Spring, revolts in Spain and Portugal are to blame.

The Euro went back a bit against the Japanese currency to 115.44 yen against 115.22 yen Friday. The dollar was in recovery against the yen at 80.48 yen 80.31 yen against Friday night.

Rising interest rates and expectations of an increase in reinforcing the attractiveness of a currency, especially against the dollar, which offers a yield close to zero since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008.

However, investors seem to focus again on the lack of compromise in Europe to offer financial support for Greece which is in great economic difficulty.

Germany's persistence that private creditors share in the cost of the subsequent plan projected aid for Greece is about to be discussed by the working group in charge of the euro area to achieve a coherent plan.

European currencies have also affected from unsatisfactory level indicators of industrialized manufacturing in the euro area than in the UK but also in Sweden.

Euro fears the fear of contagion from the debt crisis

After stabilizing euro, the euro does not escape the fears in financial markets. Last week the European currency dropped below $ 1.40 in session, a level it had not reached the past two months, which could provide some contagion of debt.

It may be that the Euro has slipped because of the spectrum of contagion those folds once again on Europe. Until the debt crisis seemed confined to the three countries most vulnerable to the euro area, Greece, Ireland and Portugal, the euro seemed to regain its natural color.

For about two months, the euro had not reached such a level. The slump in the currency of 1.59% to 1.3969 dollar is a sign that can be described as disturbing. The crisis of European sovereign debt threatens to turn into a crisis for the euro, says an economist at RBS.

However, political leaders want to dampen the atmosphere by ensuring that this phenomenon is a crisis affecting some countries of the monetary union but say, otherwise there are several reasons for thinking a resurgence effects contagion more brutal.

In terms of the following reasons, the market no longer believes that the tools established by the government to stop the debt crisis are sufficient, the restructuring of the Greek debt undermines the stability of other countries and political risk remains very high.

Despite this climate very offensive, the European commission recently  raised 4.75 billion Euros of bonds to 10 years and this, through the mechanism of financial stability (MESF) to fund aid to Ireland and Portugal.