World Stocks Drop But Europe Shrugs off Oil Slide, China Money Market Surge

World Stocks Dropped – Fall in Oil Prices/Rush in Chinese Yuan Deposit Rate

World stocks, on Tuesday fell for the fifth straight day anchoring near its lowest level in over two years making investors upset due to the fall in oil prices as well as a rush in offshore Chinese Yuan deposit rates. However, the European stocks recovered from initial weakness due to a rally in the retail segment. Strong seasonal updates had been posted by British companies in particular, lifting the FTSEuroFirst 300 up from three month low.

According to analyst, the People’s Bank of China had earlier compelled overnight, deposit rates in Hong Kong to 66.8% in order to overcome the heavy downward pressure on the Yuan, which was a severe measure essential in cooling the Chinese market volatility Deflation cautious investors in Asia avoided equities and pushed the value of the safe-haven Japanese yen, as oil slipped closer to dropping below $30 a barrel for the first time in 12 years.

Chief market analyst at Avatrade in London, Naeem Aslam informed that `investors in Europe are shrugging off some of the anguish around the Chinese market sell-off and showing some resilience today despite the up and down swings in Asia.

Slowdown in Global Economy/Volatile Chinese Markets

The FTSEuroFirst 300 was up 0.6% at 1,342 points, at 0900 GMT, only its second rise this year while Britain’s FTSE 100 was up 0.5%, Germany’s DAX was up 1.1% and France’s CAC 40 rose by 0.8%. The shares in Morrison’s rushed 12%, while Debenhams climbed 15% and Tesco rose 5%. The broadest gauge of world stocks of MSCI was however down 0.2% and had not risen since Dec 29. MCSI’s broadest index of the shares of Asia-Pacific outside Japan was 0.4% lesser just cautious of its lowest level in 4 years.

 Since the beginning of 2016, it is down more than 9%. Japan’s Nikkei had closed at 2.7 lower at its lowest level in about a year while U.S. futures aimed to a fall of about 0.3% at the open on Wall Street. With the investors still recovering from last year’s drop in global community prices together with sharp sell-off in Chinese markets, 2016 seems to have brought more pain for investments portfolios by way of developing slowdown in the global economy together with volatile Chinese markets. Beijing by setting another firm fix for its currency has eliminated the gap between offshore and onshore Yuan exchange rates.

China Continues to Inspire Degree of Stability

This was intended to encourage state banks in buying up Yuan in Hong Kong, driving up the overnight deposit rate fixing to 66.8%. According to Mitul Kotecha, currency strategist at Barclays in Singapore, `China continues to inspire a degree of stability after the sharp volatility at the start of the month by announcing stable to firmer fixings.

 Tighter liquidity had contributed to a squeeze on long USD/CNH positions and would mean investors tend to be guarded of shorting CNH in the near term’. Weakness in the commodity market from the start of the year had showed no indication of easing though as Brent and U.S. crude futures had fallen around 2% to new 12-year lows and both played with a break below $30 a barrel.

Money market futures are beginning to price out this year, the opportunity of multiple hikes in rates by the Federal Reserve, with just around 50% chance of a second hike price. Futures had been fully pricing in two rate increases at the beginning of the year.

Oil Sinks to Biggest Weekly Decline of 2015 after IEA Warning

Oil Dropped to Major Weekly Decline – IEA Emphasised Excess Level of Global Crude

Oil dropped to its major weekly decline of the year after International Energy Agency report emphasised the level of the global crude excess. The energy monitor - IEA, informed that low prices are taking a toll on supply. However, producers have not scrambled back to make dent in the stockpiles. For six straight sessions, oil had fallen, in registering its massive weekly percentage decline of 2015. The latest oil’s selloff that hadreduced prices by around a third since the beginning of the year has started rattling stock and debt market again.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down by 270 points recently and the Junk bonds which were also whirling from a fund’s closure had also collapsed. January delivery of U.S. oil futures had fallen by $1.14 to $35.62 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Brent, while the global benchmark had fallen by $1.80 per barrel, to $37.93 on ICE Futures Europe. Both had lost around 11% for the week, placing them down a third for the year as well as at their lowest settlement since the financial predicament.

IEA Monthly Report – World Oil-Demand Growth – To Be Relaxed

In February 2009, U.S. oil had last settled this low and Brent in December 2008 and the last time U.S. crude, had posted a six-session losing streak was in March. For Brent it was in mid-2014. In recent weeks, currency managers had abruptly moved against crude, constantly adding to bets on the falling prices. Recently the data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, indicated only 80,474 additional bets on the rising prices than the falling prices, which is said to be the smallest margin in more than five years.

The IEA, in its monthly report had indicated that the world oil-demand growth would relax to 1.2 million barrel each day towards 2016 after flowing to 1.8 million barrels per day this year since support from sharply falling oil prices had started to disappear. Unrelenting strong OPEC production together with extra Iranian oil hitting the market in the next year would increase global inventories by around 300 million barrels.

Oil Would Rebound to $65

IEA has commented that `as inventories tend to increase towards 2016, there would be a lot of oil weighing on the market’. Prices of several oil company shares had revealed the notion that oil would rebound to $65 per barrel according to managing director at investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co; Matt Portillo.

The prices together with the oil futures curve are presently below $60 per barrel all through 2024, and indication that a recovery seems very remote. Mr Portillo has informed that `it’s the slow meltdown which is being seen in the market presently’. Besides this, there also seems to be broad concerns regarding growth, particularly in emerging markets which in the earlier years had directed demand growth in raw materials.

Central bank of China had recently indicated its intention of changing the way it tends to manage the value of Yuan by loosening its peg to the dollar which could be a bad indication for oil demand in the second largest oil consumer in the world, according to senior research analyst at ClearBridge Investment, Dimitry Dayen, which manages the assets of $103.9 billion. He had commented that `if they tend to devalue their currency which is a bit of what is prevailing presently; the commodity will become more expensive locally and could drive the demand lower’.

Oil Prices Tumble to Five-Year Low as OPEC Gathers in Vienna

Oil Prices Collapses to Lowest Level in Five Years

As OPEC leaders meet in Vienna to set the prices for the year ahead, oil prices have collapsed to the lowest level in five years. After the US stockpiles flowed in November, Brent crude for January delivery dropped by 3.7% to $42.77 per barrel in London. US Energy Information Administration shocked the market, which had hoped the level of oil to drop during winter, by reporting that the glut of oil in America had increased by 1.2m barrels till November 27 to reach 489.4m barrels thus approached its highest level on record.

In the meanwhile, weak inflation report from Eurozone raised the possibility of the European Central Bank launching a new round of motivation sending the dollar to its highest level over 12 years. Besides this it also weighed on the oil price as the greenback is utilised to price the product.

The oversupply of crude oil due to its strong production from the U.S. together with some of the OPEC members, has been keeping the prices over 45% less than their highs from last June. Several of the investors as well as the analysts are of the belief that the global oil surplus would shrink in the coming months as demand increases and U.S. production falls in reaction to spending cuts.

Output Level Crossed its Quota of 30M Barrel/Day

In the meanwhile, market watchers are of the opinion that world-wide crude output tends to continue exceeding the consumption. The July delivery of light sweet oil, recently feel by $1.64 to $58 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The global benchmark Brent fell $1.77 to $62.03 per barrel on ICE Future Europe.

 In its last meeting, OPEC which had opted against reducing production inspite of plunging oil prices is expected to stick to that policy. The group’s output level had already crossed it quota of 30 million barrels per day. According to government reports, the output is near multi-decade in Iraq, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. Additional Iranian crude would probably enter the market this year, if on-going negotiations with Iran would result in a lifting of sanctions.

Senior market strategist at Chicago brokerage iiTrader, Bill Baruch has stated that `Russia’s picking up production, the U.S. is picking up and there seems to be no reason why OPEC would hold back from picking up production. We could see prices below $50 by the end of this month’.

Shale-Oil Production to Rise in the Coming Years

The Chief Executive of ConocoPhillips, Ryan Lance had mentioned in a conference ahead of the OPEC meeting that U.S. shale-oil production would rise in the forthcoming years as drilling would get cheaper and more efficient. He stated that the industry had already cut the price wherein it could profitably produce shale oil by 15% on an average and by 2020; shale oil production could become 15%-20% more efficient.

In the U.S., some of the shale-oil producers state that if prices tend to stabilize above $60 a barrel, they could increase the production. Several times recently, the U.S. benchmark had traded above $60 a barrel though had not held above it. John Saucer, vice president of research and analysis at Mobius Risk Group in Houston, had stated that the `OPEC was successful in shaking out high cost inefficient guys who did not make any cash at $100 and those left were certainly leaner, meaner and more efficient’.

Oil Prices Fall Again as U.S., Asia Demand Looks Set to Weaken

Oil Prices Dropped in Asian Trading

Oil prices dropped again in early Asian trading recently as traders speculated lowering refinery consumption after the US summer while the weakening economies of Asia and the high global production showed concern on the oversupply. The US crude futures had been trading at $41.84 a barrel each at 0014 GMT, which was around 3 cents below their last settlement and not more than six years low touched earlier this week.

Brent futures had been at $48.61 per barrel, down by 13 cents though the same is still some way from their 2015 low of $45.19. Both crude oil benchmarks have more than halved in value from the last year. They had rallied earlier in the year though are now almost a third below their last year rise in May.

Data have conveyed that several speculators have taken on large bets on further likely falls lying ahead. The reason for the change being twofold, one is the weak demand in several countries due to dull economic growth together with surging US production. Beside this is the fact that the oil association OPEC is unwavering in not cutting production as a way to prop up the prices.

Speculating Rise in U.S, Stockpile

According to ANZ bank it was commented that the `fundamentals suggest downside risk still tends to remain in key markets, especially iron ore and crude oil, in the months ahead’, speculating a rise in U.S. stockpile in the forthcoming months as refiners reduce operations for the purpose of maintenance as the summer driving season tends to come to an end thereby reducing the demand for US crude.

A subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, BMI Research had stated that the market could have an overshot to the downside, hoping in a modest recovery in the prices towards the fourth quarter. BMI Research analyst had commented that `the downward move had been largely speculative driven by the Iranian nuclear accord, economic uncertainties surrounding China and bearish re positioning in the futures market’.

Several oil traders have been positioning themselves to earn profit from an additional drop in U.S. prices. With regards to betting on further outright falls, the traders have become aggressive in taking up put options, an option which tends to sell a contract once the price begins to fall to a certain level, at a price as low as $35 and probably $30 a barrel.

Long-Term Outlook Seems to Remain Bearish

One broker had informed that the amount of queries that they had recently received with regards to leveraging bets on further price falls, have been quite surprising. Underlining the bearish sentiment, money managers as well as hedge funds cut their net long holdings of Brent crude futures for a fourth straight week, according to exchange data shown recently.

Long-term outlook also seemed to remain bearish with BMI Research guessing `oil prices probably to remain fixed till 2018’. They had stated that `the return of Iranian oil to the market, coupled with strong project pipelines in North America, the Middle East, West Africa and Kazakhstan would see global supply growth exceed the growth in global consumption for the next two years’. It was forecasted by the firm, that Brent would average to $56 and $55 in 2016 and 2017 respectively with U.S. crude averaging $53 in both the years.

Oil Stocks Declining Globally Except US

According to the U.S. Agency for Energy Information (EIA), global oil inventories fell by 1.3 million barrels per day in last 60 days. A situation largely due to consumption exceeds production. On average over the last two months, stocks have been valued at 2.652 billion barrels; while the figure of 2.649 billion was recorded in the same period of 2012.World production meanwhile was 83.3 million barrels per day in January and February, against 83.4 million in the comparable months of 2012. At the same time, consumption has reached 86 million bpd, against an average of 85.3 million in January-February 2012.

 Information on global stocks comes as the abundant supply overseas increasingly worried investors. Fears, which increased Wednesday following the release of statistics showing an increase in the trend. According to the weekly report from the U.S. Department of Energy on oil reserves, U.S. crude oil inventories rose 1.1 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 22. Experts noting they are now at their highest since July to 377.5 million barrels. Situation was due to both less energy consumption than a sluggish increase in crude oil production of 14.6% in 2012 compared to the previous year in 2012, something that had not been observed since 1995. A context that could worsen in the absence of agreement on the U.S. budget obtained - in extremis - Congress on Friday. Such an outcome automatically opening the way for drastic cuts could lead the United States into recession. Means lower demand for crude.

Oil prices boosted by hopes for the G20 summit

Oil prices never ceases to oscillate at the mercy of wind, carried by the waves that hit pessimistic or optimistic current market ... unless these are not swing the tree hiding the forest of speculation ....  The price per barrel has closed up Friday in New York, spruced this time by the optimism associated with expectations of investors about the positive outcome of the meeting of G20 finance ministers held Friday and Saturday. They hope such a recapitalization of the European banking sector to take place.
Caution is however set as the market speculates on a possible continuation of U.S. demand, while consumer confidence is reduced day by day. The index of consumer confidence, released Friday, has in fact eroded again after showing a slight improvement in September. It now approaches its value in August, when he had touched its highest level since November 2008. Worrying figures that even the strong growth in retail sales in September in the United States could not control.  Yet, according to the Commerce Department, the increase was significant and that the increase was 1.1% compared to last month, well above the value of analysts' projections.
Finally, Friday, a barrel of light sweet crude for November delivery gained 2.57 dollars from Thursday's close, trading at 86.80 dollars on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex).

Oil prices on the increase

Oil-barrel prices rose sharply Wednesday in New York, boosted by the weather and a report from the Fed to say the least optimistic about U.S. growth. The recovery of strength in the stock markets will do the rest. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, a barrel of light sweet crude for October delivery had soared to well over 3.32 dollars Tuesday, up to now the value of 89.34 dollars. Meanwhile in London, the price of Brent North Sea for the same period was trading at 115.80 dollars on the Intercontinental Exchange, rising 2.91 dollars so.

The price of crude rose sharply at the opening as markets react strongly to climatic conditions observed in the Gulf of Mexico, a region where most of the platforms provide a quarter of the oil consumed in the country. Investors have largely responded to the report published by the Office of Management and regulation of ocean energy resources (http://www.cmegroup.com/company/nymex.htmlBOEMRE), the latter indicating that, indeed, if Tropical Storm Lee, who reached Sunday Louisiana had inflicted no major damage, the fact remained that 37% of oil extraction and 18% of gas extraction in the area remained suspended Wednesday.

Although significantly a lower percentages of the values observed the previous day but at a level totally unexpected. Note also a possible disruption of production in Mexico, second largest exporter of crude to the United States while the National Hurricane Center reports that a tropical cyclone could pass within 48 hours, with a probability of 70%.

The price per barrel will also be benefited with the surge in global stock markets observed Wednesday, London and Paris rising more than 3%, while Frankfurt soared more than 4%. Another positive: the report of conditions contained in the Beige Book Federal Reserve (Fed), economic activity in the United States continued to grow at a moderate pace. An ad that has the merit of ending the cycle of bad news experienced in recent times.

Oil prices weighed down by Employment in US

The price of oil fell sharply Friday in New York, weighed down by strong employment figures sobering.
Stopping a part of the oil production in the Gulf of Mexico will not even possible to change that. A barrel of light sweet crude for October delivery has thus concluded the day at 86.45 dollars on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), down 2.48 dollars compared to the previous day. The course was even on the verge of reaching the threshold of 85 dollars, then limit its losses by closing.

You will note in passing that the current price fluctuations are far to affect the price of gasoline. Meanwhile in London, the Intercontinental Exchange, a barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery closed at 112.33 dollars, dropping 1.96 dollars.

The courses were largely impacted by the monthly report on employment. However, while a positive balance of recruitment had been found for ten consecutive months and in contrast to analysts' projections, the American economy has not created any jobs in August. However, some analysts had estimated in early trading as climatic conditions in the Gulf of Mexico could reverse the trend, Tropical Storm Lee threatened oil installations producing a quarter of U.S. crude.

However, while almost 48% of oil production in the area was arrested, corresponding to 666,321 barrels per day, and 33% of offshore gas extraction, prices could rise. Another disturbing fact: according to forecasts from Barclays Capital, gasoline consumption in the United States fell by 4.1% in annual slippery during the summer period, however, conducive to the mobility of Americans.

Oil Prices On Rise

Oil prices rose sharply Monday in New York, boosted by buoyant equity markets. Wall Street has indeed been boosted during the day by publishing an indicator of consumption in the United States that the current level was satisfactory. On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October had concluded the day at 87.27 dollars, up 1.90 dollars from Friday.

Markets remain driven by the president's speech to the U.S. central bank (Fed), Ben Bernanke delivered Friday that may foreshadow the development of new stimulus measures in the monetary policy meeting in September in which the duration was extended. The glow of optimism in the markets is observed following the announcement of a stronger than expected rebound in consumer spending of households, which rose 0.8% in July.

Also note that at present, the impact of Hurricane Irene in oil markets remains weak, no crude oil production being listed in the affected areas and no major disruption in supplies being to report.