Friday, September 23, 2011
The rating agency Fitch on Tuesday reaffirmed the "AAA" rating to Germany, and now it is the best position. The outlook remains stable on the other hand. A good report that offers the very interesting German debt investment safe haven status in these troubled times.
Speaking in a statement, Fitch highlights the following: a German economy "robust and diversified", "health" of the labor market, a macroeconomic management "prudent" investments and "vigorous". According to the agency, the prevailing market rate for the German debt if need be shown the safe haven status associated with it. However, that "the resolution of the crisis in the euro zone remains a determining factor for the stability of the German economy" notes Fitch.
"With a 40% share of German exports, 2% of GDP spent on existing support plans, and exposure of its banking sector to peripheral economies in the euro area, the risk of contagion from the crisis in Germany public debt remains high, "said Fitch, as well.
A position that echoes that of the IMF, the IMF saw as a likely scenario now possible spread of the debt crisis of the euro area financial system. "The banks' exposure to the fragile economies of the euro area is a fraction of the total, but is concentrated on a small number of institutions," said the agency also. The Landesbanken, regional public banks also remain a weak point of the German economy, Fitch believes that "an additional restructuring and consolidation is needed in this sector."
Recall that the Basel Committee refuses to recognize the present German peculiarity consists in that a large part of bank capital is composed of public hybrid capital which banks must pay interest to shareholders. Local authorities could be forced to run vast operations re-capitalization, the amount could be just "confessed" politically speaking.
For many years, observers indicate persistently that only two or three Landesbanken sufficient in Germany, instead of the seven schools being independent. But, of course, local politicians are hesitant to say the least to give up some of the prestige and economic power associated with these regional facilities.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Indeed, the Zew barometer that measures the confidence of German financial circles in the country's economic outlook for the next six months, has again declined in August, for the sixth time in a row. The barometer has reached Zew - 37.6 points in August, after posting - 15.1 points in July.
The fact is all the more striking that the index had not fallen as sharply since October 2008, during which he had lost 21.9 points from the previous month, hit hard by the impact of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Also note that the current drop is greater than analysts' estimates, which had forecast an index standing at -26 points.
The indicator is now suffering the backlash of concerns about German growth, which slowed sharply in the second quarter. Last week, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) and has the resolve to announce that German gross domestic product (GDP) was only marginally increased by 0.1% over the first quarter. If investors hold a positive view of course the current economic situation in Germany, but it is much worse than the previous month.
It is true that if Germany is often seen as a champion of exports, foreign trade made a negative contribution to GDP in Germany last spring, as imports exceeded exports. "Private consumption and investment in construction also slowed the German economy in the second quarter," had also then said the Statistical Office. According to a survey released recently, the Germans would doubt increasing the capacity of Chancellor Angela Merkel to solve the financial crisis.
They are in fact 55% have had "little confidence" and 20% "no confidence" in the conservative-liberal coalition government out of the euro-zone turbulence that wave now. Main objections put forward by the survey: "the Germans aspire to clear positions on the part of leaders and now it is not the case," said Richard Hilmer, director of Infratest Dimap. In other words, the German citizens expect a clear plan, and their demands are not met at present.
The question is whether the second quarter sounds sort of the end of the German economic miracle, and if Germany could in turn fall into the throes of recession.