Showing posts with label growth of Japan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label growth of Japan. Show all posts

Monday, June 20, 2016

Yen soars and Nikkei tumbles as Bank of Japan rejects further stimulus


Yen Scaled High – Nikkei 224 Fell

The stockindex of Tokyo had plunged over 3% on Thursday as mounting yen beat exporters after the Bank of Japan decided against increasing its incentive. Nikkei 225 fell 3.05% to 15,434.14 in trading, late afternoon. The yen had earlier rushed to a 21-monthhigh against dollar in the wake of the BoJ’s intention of leaving its enormous 80 trillion yen asset-buying plan unaffected, since fears on the future of Britain in the EU pound financial markets. Investors incline to buy yen as a means of safe asses in case of turmoil, though the stronger currency seems to be bad for Japanese stocks since it tends to threaten the productivity of the exporting giants of the country.

The yen scaled high as 104.11 against the dollar, in afternoon deal, its strongest level since September 2014. The decision of Bank of Japan had come up on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve had decided against increasing interest rates and Janet Yellen; its boss had announced a warning on the possible Brexit from the US. Markets in the world have been left in chaos over the past week tension regarding the global economic outlook and in recent days, a rising sense that the referendum of June 23 would be seeing Britons vote breaking away from the European Union.

Weaker Hiring/Uncertainty – Referendum of the EU

Senior economist at Mizuho Securities, Norio Miyagawa stated that `there is nothing in recent economic indicators which would now lead the BoJ to change its economic outlook. But the rising yen would place more downward pressure on consumer prices and so expects the BoJ to ease in July’.

The US Federal Reserve that had been cautiously considering to raise interest rates or not, had held back at its own meeting on Wednesday and had instead downgraded its economic predictions, quoting weaker hiring as well as uncertainty regarding the referendum of the EU. This week’ polls suggested a tight contest in the vote of next week, being a main factor regarding the rush for safe havens inclusive of the yen. FTSE 100 had opened at 0.7% lower on Thursday, a presentation which quickly removed the uneasy gains of Wednesday after four previous days of heavy fall which saw the index fall less than 6000 barrier.

Energy Stocks/Miners Safe from Latest Beating 

The energy stocks and miners only were safe from the latest beating on values. There were comparable falls in France as well as Germany. Moreover the pound was also under pressure against the dollar down 0.4% at 1.41.4 which is an 11% down a year ago. Head of trading at ETX Capital, Joe Rundle had mentioned that the `markets were on the defensive again as traders foreseen the risks of Britain leaving the EU. Since polls indicate more support for Vote leave, City watchers had begun to take the threat rather seriously and began to price in the option of a Brexit.

For the City, it could be big; most of the banks and airlines would have to consider seriously moving outside the UK if a Brexit tends to occur. He further added that a slump in sterling could be a massive boon for some FTSE 100 firms. Miners would be seeing development in their sterling-denominated balance sheet when they sell in dollars and retailers would also probably prefer to stay on in UK though they would want to spin off their European arms’.

Thursday, August 8, 2013

Aggressive stimulus efforts by Abe given strong boost to Japan

The expected increase of 3.6% after 4.1% annualized GDP and the private consumption expected to have risen 0.5% Reversal expected business investment. The growth of the Japanese economy is expected to reach 3.6% annualized in April-June, a Reuters survey showed a third consecutive quarter of expansion that would reflect the impact of increasing net policies "reflationary" Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The figure released on Monday morning in Tokyo should also strengthen the government's desire to raise the VAT next year, even if the implementation of this project politically sensitive involves many other factors, economists note. The second quarter should certainly have marked a slight slowdown in growth after the 4.1% annualized from January to March, driven mainly by household consumption, but the April-June statistics should show a recovery in exports and business investment, they add. "The growth is balanced with a strong domestic demand and external demand. This is a sign that the impact of political Abe is becoming wider," said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. Compared to the first quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have risen 0.9% in April-June, foreign demand are contributing 0.2 shows the Reuters survey.

Private consumption is expected to grow by 0.5% a quarter to the next, which would mark a slowdown after growth of 0.9% in January-March. But business investment, which fell by 0.3% in the first three months of the year, is expected to rebound by 0.7%. Abe's government plans to raise the VAT rate of 5% to 8% in April and 10% in October 2015, as part of efforts to try to contain the public debt, which exceeds 200% of GDP, the highest ratio of the major industrialized countries. This doubling in a year and a half, which is the most ambitious reform of the Japanese taxation engaged for decades, obviously poses risks to the consumer and more broadly for the recovery, as it may curb spending. Abe said he would adopt in the fall a final decision on the matter, in particular according to the changing conditions. Until then, it will be especially aware of the revised second quarter GDP, which is scheduled for publication on September 9. A Reuters survey shows that most private sector economists are in favor of raising the VAT according to the original schedule, considering that the economy can now absorb the impact.

On Monday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has called Tokyo to implement the project, considering it was a "necessary first step" to solve the fiscal problems of Japan. But even if GDP figures are as strong as expected and confirmed next month, Shinzo Abe will take a decision after studying the findings of several studies it has commissioned on the expected impact of the reform explain several sources. Careful, the prime minister also asked his staff to consider alternatives to this reform. "A good GDP figures could reinforce the scenario of a VAT increase in the initial project. But the final decision rests with Abe and he alone, “said Yoshiki Shinke. "It will be more important than past GDP figures is how the economy will react if VAT increases indeed. At this stage, it is very difficult to predict."