Showing posts with label housing bubble. Show all posts
Showing posts with label housing bubble. Show all posts

Thursday, March 20, 2014

Housing Bubble is going to burst in China!

Housing Bubble
For the last few months the financial analysts fore saw a financial crunch in China and their predictions were come to alive and now China is facing the beginning of the credit crunch now and it will accelerate further. According to the sources in China, most of the real estate developers owe billions of Yuan from the Banks and individuals which leads in turn to Bankruptcy.

Usually the defaults to the bank loans and bankruptcies are quite common but the quantity of amount borrowed as loan by the realtors in China caused the panic. The Chinese News service reported that Zhejiang and Xingrun real estates over 2.4 billion to Banks and 1.1 billion Yuan to private investors. Subsequent to these the real estate sector of the Shanghai stock exchange fell down by one percent

While some analysts are trying to reassure by stating that there will be no domino effect, it certainly begs to believe, but nothing is less certain ... Others point out, however, that real estate developers active in the Zhejiang region face serious difficulties last year, battered by intense speculation, including Ningbo and Wenzhou, two cities that have seen property prices strongly fall.

China's real estate market is showing signs of slowing since the end of last year, mainly because of measures taken by the authorities to contain prices. Many experts also believe that the failure to pay Chaori Solar, occurred on March 7, is related to the Chinese authorities' desire to impose greater rigor in the functioning of credit channels.

Another notable element according to banking and industry sources, many banks have reduced up to 20% of their loans to certain industries. They are worried due to the financial health of these sectors, which tends to be oversized in China.

In September 2013, the Chinese central bank had said for his part that the loans granted in August in the Middle Kingdom had almost doubled in a month, reaching 1.570 billion Yuan. But even more serious element is only 45% of them are bank loans and the majority of loans are informal credit (shadow banking), which already concerned at the highest point to the analysts.

In June 2013, already, the rating agency Fitch indicated that a bursting of a credit bubble unprecedented in the history of the modern world could explode in China.

The Chinese interbank market, on which financial institutions lend money daily , was facing a severe shortage of liquidity,. Chinese Central Bank had injected 17 billion Yuan (2.8 billion Euros) in the banking system.

In February 2013, we had already talked about our fears of analysts. These are alarming excessive growth of bank loans to the private sector, and the loans outside the formal sector were more and more and went up and difficult to repay. These lead to the high level of bad loans held by Chinese Banks.

Hence the Monetary authorities and Chinese policies now wish to terminate the very rapid credit growth in recent years. A situation that pushes the government to "clean up" the banking market, closing the valve to riskier institutions, a policy may lead some into bankruptcy.                                        

                                                                                                     (to be continued)

Monday, October 1, 2012

Financial deregulation and Housing Bubble

From 2007, the outstanding performance of the financial institutions gave way to the bursting of the housing bubble. Real estate whose fees have a permanent character and recurring such as rental management and property administration resisted but the pace of transactions and starts declined sharply. This has caused an awareness on the part of banks reacted in: Stopping the acquisitions or investments in the real estate sector; Closing some real estate agencies; Restructuring their activities to promote consistency and readability of various trades; In addition, buyers found that they could not (for regulatory or governance) or failed to make the synergies that were announced and anticipated between the Bank's businesses and real estate. The real estate crisis has significantly slowed the enthusiasm of Banks. However, they must adapt their distribution model to the development of brokers. Indeed, the market share of the brokerage has grown steadily in recent years at the expense of traditional banking channels to locate currently around 22% of loans in Europe. This reflects an underlying trend as evidenced by other European markets where brokers capture 30% market share in Germany, 55% in Spain, 60% in the Benelux and even 66% in Britain. This figure reaches 70% loan in the United States. Brokers will therefore still snatch market share to banks pocketing pass finder's fees and thereby reducing margins to bankers. The temptation to control the upstream chain is always present. For this purpose, banks may acquire brokers. However, this strategy undermines the necessary independence of brokers and therefore generates a significant commercial risk (which could partly explain the current difficulties in the online broker). The alternative lies in the implementation of partnerships as do several networks developing funding in areas such as real estate agencies. Some banks even completely integrate the entire chain, from start to finish, offering new "space property" bringing together in one place all relevant interlocutors customers for their real estate projects. These "megastores estate" virtual or physical, may well be the response of banks to prevent erosion.