Evils of Inflation and deflation

Let me explain the concept of Inflation and deflation in a simple manner. Inflation and deflation are the terms used to describe the state of a Economy.

Inflation is the word used during price rise of essential commodities. Inflation is nothing but, too much of money chasing too little goods. To put it simply, if there is too much of paper money and less quantity of goods are produced, then too much of paper money would chase too little goods which would automatically increase the price of the commodity.

Inflation occurs when there is more paper money and less end products. There is imbalance between the money printed and the goods produced during inflation. Inflation can be controlled by controlling the printed paper money or producing more of the goods.

The term deflation is used opposite to Inflation. Deflation is a period when too little money chases too many goods. Because of this, the price of the commodities starts falling which will put the producers to get a price lower than their production cost. This is also evil to the economy.

So continous fall or rise of prices would be seen as evil for the economy. Inflation and deflation can be controlled by the Government by increasing or decreasing the Interest rates or by controlling the printing of Currencies.

When there is blood in the streets, You buy property

There is a popular saying “ When there is blood in the Streets, You buy Property. In the Hollywood Movie ‘The Inside Man’ the sentence was used frequently to describe situation of Character in that Movie making money during world war.


The saying would surely fit for the Investments decisions. Whenever there is a decline in the price of the assets whether it is Stocks or Bullion or Real Estate, they are bound to come up from low levels. But it may not be immediately but surely it will rebound atleast after some time.


But the emotional setup of all Investors at that time would be biased towards panic. They will be following the herds. Herd Mentality would set in which would surely ensure the Investors not to take rational decisions.


But the history shows whenever there is panic in any Market that is the best buying opportunity and it is mostly missed by most Investors. Investment decisions should be taken in a particular asset when others are selling. This is called the contrarian thinking.


The best Investment chances came when everybody was in Panic about the particular Market. In future, we may see a panic situation in the any market. We should see that an Investment opportunity, instead of joining the herd.






The contrarian thinking says ‘you buy property when others are selling’.

Dubai Crisis- Is it the end or the tip of the Iceberg?

Dubai Crisis- Is it the end or the tip of the Iceberg



We all know that the financial crisis in Dubai World is due to heavy exposure in Real Estate Investments and the fall of property prices, and a very little demand for the already completed projects.


Money is locked in declining assets. The same scenario was seen in 2008 in US with large Investment Banks collapsing under their weight by holding huge exposure in real estate market. The ripples of that effect was heard in Asian and European Countries also.


But at that time, the asian countries some what remained insulated from that effect. In India also, those effects can be seen by the fall of property prices and lack of demand.


Now the million dollar question is whether the worst is over or the worst is yet to come. Normally, when a financial bubble is burst, its effect can be seen for 5 to 10 years. For example, the dot com burst had it effect for another 10 years. The same is going to happen now also.


In India, large number of IPO are coming in Infra, Power and Reality sector. This indicates people are still confident of this sector. It does apply that the worst is yet to come. We are likely to see Dubai Crisis scenario in coming months in some Asian and European Countries.


What I feel is that the Dubai crisis is just a tip of the Iceberg. When the whole Iceberg is known to the world, I don’t know how it is going to affect our career and living.

How will be the crude oil prices in the months to come?

How will be the crude oil prices in the months to come?
The crude oil prices which was hovering around 12 to 15 dollars in 1998 has started the rally from that level towards 145 USD in 2008. A correction was set from that level.



Before the end of 2008, it tested USD 30 region and bounced back towards 80 USD. Since then it is trading in the region between USD60 and USD80.


Technically every Markets peaked in 2008 except Gold. Crude oil also peaked in 2008. The peak of Crude Oil was coincided with the start of recession in all global Economies. The demand for Energy was slowed by the slowing down of global economies. So the prices of crude oil stabilized around 70 USD in 2009.


Unless the Global Economies start showing growth the demand for Crude oil is more less would be the same. There would not be significant increase in the demand.


No Economic cycle shows fast decline followed by immediate growth. It will surely take to start the next cycles, which means we are likely to see some more years of downtrend.


Until then, we can be sure that oil prices would move above the 80 Dollars mark in the near future. Technically also, any which corrects itself more than one third will see a severe bear market. So, crude oil prices are likely remain in a range below USD 80 for few more years.


I may not be astonished in seeing Crude below USD30 in another 2 years.

Will the downtrend in Gold continue?

Will the downtrend in Gold continue?

After testing a high of 1226 USD Gold has reacted from that high to test a recent low of 1100. A 126 USD decline is a significant decline from the high. Such a decline in the past 6 months was not seen.
Previously I have been advocating that we are developing a ‘Gold Bubble’ and it about to burst. Will this decline foretell the end of the bull Market in Gold.
One of the famous tools used by Analyst to forecast free Markets is Elliott Wave Principle. Based on the study using that tool, it points we are in the fifth wave of a impulse, which means we are in the last leg of the bull Market.
According to the theory, If this is going to be the last leg of the bull Market, then we are going to see a big decline for another few years to come.
Ok, If 1226 is not the top, then what will be the Maximum target for Gold. Yes, based on Elliott Wave principle, we can derive a target of 1400 USD in another 6 months period.
Whenever a commodity is largely discussed in Media, then that would mark the significant turning point of that Market. Gold is being discussed in all world media and it is the only commodity which is in limelight for the past one Year.
Last when Crude oil Prices were peaking, the same story happened. Media covered Crude oil daily and their focus was on Crude oil with analysts predicting 200 to 250 USD as price Target.
Now, the same thing is happening in Gold.
Let us wait and see whether History repeats itself……………..