Stock Market basics-2

Every body should invest to financially  protect himself for the rainy day. Investment is different from business. Business is the source of your income. What ever you invest in the business in not your investment. But some spending like buying land for the business can be a investment. So basically business and investments are different.
Investment is for the rainy day. But business is for our regular income. There are different type of investments. It may be shares, Gold, Bond, or real estate. But what you save in banks as deposits are savings. There is a difference between savings and Investment.
Savings can be done in any form. It is saving the excess money in banks or in your locker itself. Savings would not grow as it is. When your savings turn into a investment, it is likely to grow. Properly saved money is a good investment. Savings are not associated with any risk. But investments are associated by with some risk. So investments are risk capital. Where as savings are not.
So Business, Savings and Investments are three different thing. If you could identify these three things, then you have passed your 10th standard in finance. Stock Market investment is an Investment. Stock Market Investment is a risk capital

Stock Market basics-1

Stock Market investments are long term investments that should not be funded by short term debt. Always invest the surplus in Stock Market. Investments in stock market can be done at any age. But as the age increases one should reduce the exposure in stock market to half of his portfolio.
In the long run, equities always offer the highest returns. The amount that can be invested in stock market depends on two criteria. The risk profile of the person and two, the liquidity requirements of the person.
Risk profile
Equity investments are not free of risk. Person who has debts should not invest in Stock Markets. Person who has good career with stable income can take lot of risks in Stock Market. Person who is retired and who is not earning now should take small risk in the stock market.

Liquidity
Liquidity means the need of cash to meet one’s repaying obligations. A person who has debt is in need of liquid cash to meet out his obligations. So he should not invest in Stock Market. A person who has excess money and who has little requirement of liquid cash, can invest a lot in market. A person who has retired from job also is in need of liquid cash to meet out his recurring obligations like rent, telephone bills etc.

Investments in Stock Markets should be done based on risk profile and liquidity requirement of a person.

Will there be a bull market in Real Estate Sector world over?

It is being mentioned in main stream media that there will be bull market in real estate sector. And there is a perception among the investors that real estate prices are going to move up. Will there be really a bull market in this sector?

Earlier, it was in 2008, there was a big bull market top. The top was followed by a big correction and as everybody knows, it has been a bull market since 2009. Now it is being projected, that the bull market will continue its trend in 2011-2012 period also.

If the present rally continues its uptrend for the next two years, then real estate market is growing after a brief correction. Is it possible for a back to back rally in this sector, that’s to in a span of 4 years. As for as speculative markets are concerned, markets after peaking for a long time takes five to 10 years to consolidate its position.

So back to back rally is not possible in this sector within this 4 years. My view is, the present rally in this sector is a temporary one and it is going to be followed by a big bear market which could last even for a decade. Investment in this sector can be avoided at current levels or you can postpone the decision of buying for another 1 year

Short term Outlook of Australian Stock Index

The  Australian Index AORD has been forming a expanding triangle since September of 2009 and also it is forming a expanding triangle since september 2010 in the final leg of the bigger expanding triangle. Expanding triangles normally retrace completely. So the present rally would terminate some where between 4900 and 5250 in levels in near future.

A correction from these levels is likely to terminate around 4600 initially. Break of 4600 could foretell a big correction for AORD. A rally past 5250 could only negate the present bearish scenario for this Index. Almost most of the Western Markets are trading in the same pattern. The bearish pattern is not only seen in AORD, but also in all World Markets.

And also, the rally after October 2009 has not moved above the all time high the AORD formed on 2007. The present rally would miss the previous high by a huge margin, if the present rally terminates around 5250. As of now selling the index when it moves towards 5250 will fetch some good returns from a traders point of view.

Short Term Outlook of FTSE

Since 2009 September, the United Kingdom stock Index FTSE has been trading in a expanding triangle pattern. Expanding Triangle is a reliable. But trading and projecting will be very tough for any Analyst or Trader. The price pattern suggests, the present rally from the low of 4800 from June 2010 seems to be the last leg of the Expanding Triangle.

The last upside rally in an Expanding Triangle would be followed by a last downside leg. If FTSE behaves as we project then it is likely to see a correction towards 4400 levels in coming weeks.  For the short term, the level 6000 seems to be a crucial level for the coming trading session. If it could sustain above that level, a short term rally towards 6300 is likely. If not a correction towards 5450 is likely


In the Long term, since it failed to clear the 2007 high, this Index seems to be in a bear market.