Showing posts with label financial crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label financial crisis. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

The Financial Bubbles Happened In The Past! -1

What is the common point between the Asian crisis of 1997, the Internet crisis of 2001, the subprime crisis in 2008, the sovereign debt crisis of 2010 and what will be the next financial and economic crisis? They all originate from the bursting of a speculative bubble. This phenomenon of artificial inflation of prices though not new, for more than three centuries actually, economic agents know that trees do not grow to the sky. And yet they are still surprised when a bubble bursts. It all began in the late sixteenth century, when Dutch traders introduced in the country of tulips from Turkey. New, rare and unlikely mix of colors, a combination which gave very quickly tulip flowers to have high value relative to many other flowers that were the kingdom. Tulip and gradually became a luxury item particularly popular with the wealthy but also by the Dutch bourgeoisie. Finally freed from Spanish rule, the latter had indeed reaped significant benefits from trade with Asia, not hesitating to build large houses surrounded by flower gardens particularly with tulips. For almost forty years, the price of tulip flowers then continued to grow at a moderate pace at first, then more sustained from the 1630s rhythm, and in 1635 it took an average of 2,500 florins to buy a tulip flowers,to a greater cost of 25 750 euro( as the value of 2002 ,if we are to believe the calculations of the International Institute of Social History). The price of tulip flowers reached its peak in 1636, the same year; parliament actually discussed a project on the transformation of the nature of the contracts that would become the purchasing options and not obligations which is a windfall for speculators. Thus says at the beginning of year 1637, a tulip flowers could be traded on the futures market against the equivalent of three paintings by Rembrandt, or ten times the annual salary of a skilled craftsman, or against a field of five acres ... data often from pamphlets of the time which it is impossible to verify the accuracy.

One thing is for sure though; the price of tulip flowers was abnormally high. Especially when we know that the color intensity of the flower was actually linked to a mosaic virus of the flower. Finally, in February 1637 that the euphoria ended and the prices of futures fall sharply, marking the end of speculation, understand the "trade wind." The tulip mania and was one of the first bubbles in economic history. It also marked the beginning of a long list of other bubbles - Crash of 1720 following speculation on the South Sea Company, crash of Vienna in 1873 due to soaring property prices in Paris Berlin and Vienna stock market crashes of 1929 and 1987 and, more recently, the subprime crisis - causes and consequences substantially similar. A mass hysteria and the rapid enrichment of people’s misunderstanding one another, movements of brutal impoverishment and bankruptcy.

Sunday, August 28, 2011

Hurricane Irene could also add the financial woes of the United States

Not life grand? Hurricane Irene has not yet reached the coasts of the United States that some experts argue already figures on the possible financial consequences of its passage. According to Kinetic Analysis, a firm that develops computer models of any damage that may be caused by bad weather, the weather event could cause up to twelve billion dollars in damage on the east coast of the United States if the projected path by Meteorologists official is confirmed.

If I were cynical, I could say that the situation would represent almost a "windfall" for Obama, the financial damage caused by storms may eventually merge with the negative consequences of lack of rigor of the American government on the management of public deficits. According to the national hurricane center based in Miami, Irene has to hit North Carolina Saturday and Sunday back to New York where "a very dangerous storm" could lead to rising water 3 to 4 meters.

If one believes Chuck Watson; director of research for Kinetic Analysis, this scenario would be the worst possible in current situation. It is true according to an estimate made by NASA from satellite observations; Irene has a diameter of about 820 km, equivalent to nearly a third of the total length of the U.S. east coast (2675 km).

The probability that the hurricane hit New York at the height of its intensity remains small, then context would reduce the "bill", the damage in this case could "be limited" to a range between 5 and 10 billion. The firm is nevertheless clear that a difference of 30 km of where the center of the storm will strike "can literally double the value of the damage."Kinetic Analysis shows "If it goes directly to the City of New York, even a low-intensity hurricane could easily cause one billion of losses".

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Germany was it in turn impacted by the crisis in European Union?

Indeed, the Zew barometer that measures the confidence of German financial circles in the country's economic outlook for the next six months, has again declined in August, for the sixth time in a row. The barometer has reached Zew - 37.6 points in August, after posting - 15.1 points in July.

The fact is all the more striking that the index had not fallen as sharply since October 2008, during which he had lost 21.9 points from the previous month, hit hard by the impact of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Also note that the current drop is greater than analysts' estimates, which had forecast an index standing at -26 points.

The indicator is now suffering the backlash of concerns about German growth, which slowed sharply in the second quarter. Last week, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) and has the resolve to announce that German gross domestic product (GDP) was only marginally increased by 0.1% over the first quarter. If investors hold a positive view of course the current economic situation in Germany, but it is much worse than the previous month.

It is true that if Germany is often seen as a champion of exports, foreign trade made a negative contribution to GDP in Germany last spring, as imports exceeded exports. "Private consumption and investment in construction also slowed the German economy in the second quarter," had also then said the Statistical Office. According to a survey released recently, the Germans would doubt increasing the capacity of Chancellor Angela Merkel to solve the financial crisis.

They are in fact 55% have had "little confidence" and 20% "no confidence" in the conservative-liberal coalition government out of the euro-zone turbulence that wave now. Main objections put forward by the survey: "the Germans aspire to clear positions on the part of leaders and now it is not the case," said Richard Hilmer, director of Infratest Dimap. In other words, the German citizens expect a clear plan, and their demands are not met at present.

The question is whether the second quarter sounds sort of the end of the German economic miracle, and if Germany could in turn fall into the throes of recession.