Showing posts with label oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oil. Show all posts

Saturday, June 6, 2015

Money - Oil Prices Drop on Dollar, Oversupply

Oil Prices down – 3%

Oil price fell by nearly 3 percent recently as traders as well as investors disregarded a fifth straight weekly decline in U.S. crude stock piles and instead focused on big build in distillates which included diesel since the peak season for U.S. road travel gets under way. Core Gulf members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that pumps over a third of the world’s oil intend to have a consensus in maintaining the group’s oil output at the meeting held on Friday.

According to a senior Gulf OPEC sources has informed to Reuters. OPEC delegates informed Reuters in Vienna that `there is consensus among Gulf OPEC countries and others, to keep the –production, ceiling unchanged. Nobody wants to rock the boat.

The meeting is expected to be smooth sailing’. Dollar had gained about 0.4% against a few other currencies since the euro slipped, thus making fuel much more expensive to other currencies holder. Benchmark Brent crude oil for the month of July dropped $1.75 to a low of $63.74 prior to recovering a bit to around $63.90, down to about 2.5%, by 1010 GMT U.S. crude was $1.40 or 2.25% for $59.86 a barrel.

Analyst Gene McGillian – Market Down After Pairing Losses 

Brent had collapsed last year to almost $45 for a barrel in January from $115 last June pressing several oil producers in countries outside OPEC which included U.S. shale drillers as well. OPEC which pumps over a third of the world’s oil is likely to reject any calls for output cuts intending to produce around 2 million barrels per day beyond demand.

Crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for U.S. oil fell also together with gasoline stocks. However distillate stockpiles including diesel and heating oil rose by 3.8 million barrels, which is four times the 1.1 million barrel build prediction.

According to analyst Gene McGillian of Tradition energy in Stamford, Connecticut, comments, `that he thinks the market came back down after pairing losses at first is telling of the sentiment that people don’t really think this is a very bullish report’. He is of the belief that consistent draws for gasoline and distillates would be an indication of demand. He added. `If not with refinery runs of above 93%, we could end up with a glut of refined products in storage rather than crude now’.

Future Seems Positive

Carsten Fritsch, analyst of Frankfurt based Commerzbank tends to agree stating that `a market that does not rally on falling inventories and a slumping U.S. dollar looks vulnerable to the downside’. Ali al-Naimi. Saudi Arabian Oil Minister stated in a conference organised by OPEC in Vienna recently that the group was `currently meeting global demand and does not see this changing.

In terms of the long-term energy outlook, the future looks very positive’, he added. OPEC, by pumping 2 million barrels per day which is more than needed is helping in filling oil inventories across the world and is keeping the price of oil for delivery now at a discount for future prices.

Some of the analysts are of the opinion that there seems to be a chance OPEC could increase its target on production soon. Barclay is said to have stated in a preview note of a recent meeting that `with heightened geopolitical risk threatening oil supplies in the Middle East and North Africa, it is highly unlikely that OPEC will reduce the quote, but an increase is possible’.

Thursday, April 4, 2013

Russian Giant invests in Morocco Oil Resources

The oil curse is it the fear in Morocco? But we fear the worst in the country so far spared by the Arab revolutions, while already the U.S. oil giant Chevron has signed an agreement with the Moroccan authorities to conduct exploration work on three sites off its coasts. This is enough to create tension between the Kingdom of Morocco, Portugal and Spain, the Moroccan government has recently announced the establishment of a provisional commission for the delimitation of the continental shelf on the Atlantic shore. Now, it is the Russian Abramovich who invests in the kingdom. Thus, the Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich and Circle Oil Plc, Irish Oil Company, just lay the groundwork for an agreement to invest more than $ 20 million for operating a first site in the Basin Gharb.

 Circle Oil says elsewhere on the internet, that the deposit "has been tested with success." Five additional drilling should be carried out by the company, which has two exploration licenses in the area. Recall that Abramovich made his fortune in the oil industry in 2005. He turned back to the oil sector in investing in Latin America and Africa. Since 2011, Morocco has witnessed the signing of new oil contracts for offshore areas like Foum Assaka, Cape Boujdour, Mazagan, Essaouira and Maritime Juby and the onshore area Doukkala. In addition, there are five agreements on recognition of Anzarane offshore areas of Tarhazoute and onshore areas Boudnib and highlands.

The Kingdom of Morocco said today make up the delay through "improved drilling techniques that now allow easier access to deep-water deposits." In order to encourage investors, the Moroccan government has implemented tax measures to encourage exploration while amending the law on hydrocarbons. Thus, the government offers newcomers an exemption from corporate tax for a period of ten consecutive years and rates of royalty on oil and gas not exceeding 10 and 5% respectively.

Monday, October 17, 2011

Oil prices boosted by hopes for the G20 summit

Oil prices never ceases to oscillate at the mercy of wind, carried by the waves that hit pessimistic or optimistic current market ... unless these are not swing the tree hiding the forest of speculation ....  The price per barrel has closed up Friday in New York, spruced this time by the optimism associated with expectations of investors about the positive outcome of the meeting of G20 finance ministers held Friday and Saturday. They hope such a recapitalization of the European banking sector to take place.
Caution is however set as the market speculates on a possible continuation of U.S. demand, while consumer confidence is reduced day by day. The index of consumer confidence, released Friday, has in fact eroded again after showing a slight improvement in September. It now approaches its value in August, when he had touched its highest level since November 2008. Worrying figures that even the strong growth in retail sales in September in the United States could not control.  Yet, according to the Commerce Department, the increase was significant and that the increase was 1.1% compared to last month, well above the value of analysts' projections.
Finally, Friday, a barrel of light sweet crude for November delivery gained 2.57 dollars from Thursday's close, trading at 86.80 dollars on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex).

Saturday, December 19, 2009

How will be the crude oil prices in the months to come?

How will be the crude oil prices in the months to come?
The crude oil prices which was hovering around 12 to 15 dollars in 1998 has started the rally from that level towards 145 USD in 2008. A correction was set from that level.

Before the end of 2008, it tested USD 30 region and bounced back towards 80 USD. Since then it is trading in the region between USD60 and USD80.

Technically every Markets peaked in 2008 except Gold. Crude oil also peaked in 2008. The peak of Crude Oil was coincided with the start of recession in all global Economies. The demand for Energy was slowed by the slowing down of global economies. So the prices of crude oil stabilized around 70 USD in 2009.

Unless the Global Economies start showing growth the demand for Crude oil is more less would be the same. There would not be significant increase in the demand.

No Economic cycle shows fast decline followed by immediate growth. It will surely take to start the next cycles, which means we are likely to see some more years of downtrend.

Until then, we can be sure that oil prices would move above the 80 Dollars mark in the near future. Technically also, any which corrects itself more than one third will see a severe bear market. So, crude oil prices are likely remain in a range below USD 80 for few more years.

I may not be astonished in seeing Crude below USD30 in another 2 years.