Greece Asks For A Third Bailout

Greek Government’s Official Request – 3rd International Bailout

The Greek government has officially requested a 3rd international bailout in order to help in paying its debt, to prevent economic downfall and ejection from euro. It was recently confirmed by the European Stability Mechanism which acts as Europe’s financial rescue fund that Greece had applied for a new bailout package. According to a senior economist at ING, Carsten Brzeski who informed CNBC through email that there would be new negotiations and these would be tough.

Greece had received its first aid in 2010 with 110 billion euro rescue package while the second program brought the bailouts of 240 billion euros, for which the payment deadline was extended recently for another four month on the premise that the Greece’s government would be making a renewed push for economic improvements. Greece still needed financial help due to its huge debt burden unlike other euro zone members likeIreland and Portugal.

The latest bailout program ended recently and Greece had missed the big debt payment to the International Monetary Fund thus becoming the first developed economy for non-payment of fund. The Greek government has requested for the new package for three years and has promised to present fresh economic reforms for exchange of money. Moreover it has also implied that it would prefer some form of debt relief from previous bailouts.

Greece Economy in Deep Crisis

The European Union is expected to come to a decision soon whether to grant another bailout program once it receives more details with regards to the economic plans of Greece. Recently the International Monetary Fund had estimated that Greece would need at least 50 billion euros though analysts are of the opinion that the figure could be much higher since the IMF analysis had been conducted prior to the Greek banks being forced to shut down creating added havoc on the economy.

Greek economy is in a deep crisis due to years of overspending as well as mismanagement and the government has fundamentally run out of funds. Banks have been closed for over a week and will continue to remain close for some time with cash withdrawals being stopped for individuals and businesses. Driving has also been stopped by regular people since they now want to conserve any cash that they may have.

Experts are of the opinion that Greece would soon be compelled in printing their own currency and ditch the euro if the leaders tend to disagree on the new rescue package. Market News International – MNI, the News organization had recently reported that the creditors of Greece have been considering the possibility of a third package for several months, quoting top euro zone official.

Germany Powerhouse of Euro Zone

The source also informed that the possibility had increased in the hope of higher deficits and weaker growth owing to the turmoil of the recent snap election of the country. The deputy parliamentary floor leader of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU party, Michael Fuchs, informed CNBC that another round of financial aid would probably be difficult.

He commented that it would depend on the Greek Government and that they have to come up with serious proposals. Greece needs to show that they are capable of really changing the situation. Germany has been known to be the powerhouse of the euro zone and the German taxpayer had portrayed signs that they are little more reluctant in continuing to bail out the struggling euro zone nations.

According to a recent new survey by Polit Barometer, around three quarters of Germans are in doubt that the Greek government would implement the announced serious measures and reforms while an INSA poll also indicated that only 21 percent of Germans support the present extension for Greece. German parliament had voted in support of the bailout extension, however with lot of dissatisfaction shown in these polls, it could not be too long before the German politician may change tact.

Cease Fire But No Peace Agreement

ING’s Brzeski informed CNBC that `the current compromise was a cease fire but no peace agreement. A lot of goodwill has been destroyed by the Greek negotiation strategy and it is completely open whether there will be an agreement on a third package or whether we could still see a Grexit later this year’.

Chief executive at the German Federation of Industry, Markus Kerber, had informed CNBC that Greece needs the reforms for the people of Greece and not just of its international creditors. He further added that Greece has four months now to show that the new government would be willing to do the structural reforms in the country that has been waiting for long and if this happens in the next four months, then there could be signs of hope on the horizon’.

In the meanwhile, a second reading of gross domestic product for Greece recently indicated that the economy had contracted 0.4 percent in the last quarter of 2014. Leaders of all 28 European Union countries would be holding a summit to decide on Greece’s fate in the euro and have warned that any bailout deal would tend to come with tougher requirements than the earlier deal offered which was rejected by the Greeks in a referendum earlier this month.

Moody’s Raise The Prospect Of EU and Maintains AAA rating

The rating agency Moody's announced on Friday in a renewed optimism for the finances of the European Union (EU), including pointing out the “decrease " risk to the debt crisis in the Euro area. The U.S. agency, which evaluates the creditworthiness of debt issuers, first confirmed the triple "AAA" assigned to the European Union, the maximum score that allows theory to borrow at lower cost in market. It does not, however, stop there and moved from "negative” to "stable" perspective of the EU, indicating that it was considering lowering the rating most in the medium term.

Criticized for its competitors to errors of judgment during the 2007-2008 financial crisis, Moody and seems to embody the improvement on the Old Continent, and more specifically in the Euro area which emerged from a long recession in mid -2013. In its statement, the agency asserts that the risks to the Euro area “declined" to reduce the pressure, the quality of financial assets in the region and on the creditworthiness of the whole of the Union.

Supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Union had to come to the rescue of several countries in the Euro zone (Greece, Ireland , Portugal, Cyprus ) by bailing with billions of Euros in loans between 2010 and 2011 to avoid bankruptcy. Ireland was the first to overcome the international financial assistance in December and will soon be joined by Portugal. According to the agency, the risks that these two countries fail to repay their loans to the relief fund of the EU “decreased”. In support of its decision, Moody's also cites “improving the solvency “of key member states of the European Union, which had been involved in these large bailouts.

In recent weeks, the agency has identified "negative” to “stable" outlook from several European countries still enjoying the “AAA" rating including Germany and the Netherlands. Moody's was also more optimistic for countries hit hard by the debt crisis as Italy and Spain, which benefited from a bank recapitalization plan. The rating of the EU would be particularly sensitive to changes which could affect the top four contributors to the European Union, including France.

In its statement, the agency does not curiously referred to Greece, which is the epicenter of the debt crisis in the Euro area, while the country is still under financial infusion and continues to worry its international creditors. The EU and IMF blocked a new loan in the country since mid-2013 on the grounds that Athens refuses to make further cuts in its public finances. In summer 2011, the United States had been stripped of their triple-A by Standard and Poor's but had nevertheless continued to borrow from financiers in the markets at historically low rates.

Can Structural reforms help Europe!

The introduction of the single currency has allowed the accumulation of deep macro economic imbalances within the Euro area. Some member countries have generated current account surpluses, while others dug large current account deficits. These imbalances are explained in the loss of competitiveness "peripheral" countries: their real exchange rate has appreciated by 6-15 % compared to few others between 2001 and 2009. These losses of competitiveness explain themselves in part by strong price increases observed in the markets of non-tradable goods, particularly in the property sector. When imbalances are settled violently in 2009, the periphery has shifted into a severe recession and public debt is soaring mechanically. During an economic crisis, each member country of the Euro area can not vary its exchange rate to stimulate activity.

 Therefore, the peripheral countries have sought to simulate a devaluation of the exchange rate. For this, they have implemented structural reforms aimed at increasing competition in the labor markets and products. These include reducing the one hand, the monopoly power of firms and, on the other hand, the bargaining power of workers. In this way, the reforms allow favorable price drops and in purchasing power, prevent excessive wage increases, stimulate entrepreneurship, job creation, etc. Adopting structural reforms, peripheral in Euro area countries hope to regain competitiveness and improve their current balance. In addition, as the reforms are supposed to get agents to expect higher growth in the future, so encourage them to spend today, they should stimulate domestic demand. Structural reforms should they be provided in place when economies are in recession? When aggregate demand is insufficient or governments increase their spending directly to restore the level of aggregate demand , or the central bank eases monetary policy to stimulate private spending. If, in such a context, governments are forced to adopt austerity plans; that is in view of stabilizing the public debt and reassure markets about the sustainability of public debt, then the drop demand accelerates.

However, if the shock is particularly violent, a central bank may not be able to sufficiently lower its key rate to bring the economy to full employment and prevent the onset of deflation. Anticipating a further decline in prices and wages, private agents have an incentive to postpone spending in time, which leads firms to lower new prices and wages. Deflation is also reflected by an increase in real interest rates, which increases the burden of debt. Households and businesses are then no incentive to borrow, but rather to deleverage, which depresses the purchase of new durable goods.

In this case, households are encouraged to reduce their expenses if they anticipate a deterioration of employment protection in times of mass unemployment. Structural reforms cannot be implemented in a recession if governments and central banks are able to offset the impact on aggregate demand. Otherwise, they feed the contraction. Far from building trust and encourage investment, reforms may maintain pessimism and savings behavior. Therefore, they also degrade the potential growth by maintaining long-term unemployment and disincentive for companies to invest.

The Corporate Bankruptcies and The Crisis

The real crisis, the corporate bankruptcies are the real crisis and it is the creative destruction. Like it or not, the real victims of the crisis in Europe are definitely businesses. The loss of business in the Euro zone increase indeed 21% in 2013, to return to a growth rate moderate 7% in 2014. These bankruptcies are concerned and unfortunately synonymous with soaring unemployment and a real deindustrialization. Since the record figures of 2009, the waves of loss, of the United States to China, passing throughout the Europe, concentrated in areas with erratic tax incentives, such as construction and services. Once the boost is flown, numbers of companies were no longer profitable. Today, the shock wave is more fundamental: the sharp slowdown in consumer spending in Europe, or at half the exports for Asia. In Europe, the areas of distribution, furniture, consumer electronics, and automotive, and are strongly affected. This industrial Darwinism seems to be the swell of the year 2013, still marked by the credit crunch. But the induced effects are numerous: for example in Asia, companies see their market melt like snow in the sun and the overcapacity problem. This economic turbulence with a number of businesses created which also increases in many countries could it is a synonym for renewal? Economic entropy can be conducive to a new beginning, if we are to believe the evolutionary hypothesis of Schumpeter. The undertakings least well adapted and especially the least innovative way to let those who are reinventing themselves and meet new needs. "The perennial gale" Schumpeter, after the storm of 2009 and the economic winter it starts to make a lot. And yet ... The needs are there, in sectors with high added value, intensive skills, human capital and social capital, driven by research and innovation and entrepreneurship. So, of course the news is bad with soaring business failures and accelerated payment risk, while margins are already weakened. But, is it better to jump back? The answer is “Maybe”. It is also necessary that the guidelines are taken on supporting innovation, the business environment, or incentives to take care of seedlings, otherwise incubators will also be decimated.

Europe needs long-term financing!

The urgency for Europe to reconnect with smart, sustainable and inclusive growth, which allows Europe to create jobs and, based on the areas in which it has a competitive advantage, gain market competitiveness world. To achieve this, it must meet investment needs large-scale and long-term. To finance these investments in the long term, governments and businesses, regardless of size, should have access to a long-term, predictable funding. The ability of the economy to make available such long-term funding also depends on the financial sector's ability to effectively provide users and relevant investment, effectively and efficiently, saving governments, businesses and households. This provision may be indirect, such as through banks, insurers and pension funds, either directly, via the capital markets. The long-term funding must be secured in such a way that supports structural reforms and help get the economy back on a path of sustainable growth. The financial crisis has reduced the capacity of the European financial sector to channel savings into investment long-term needs. It is important to ask whether in Europe, traditionally high dependence with regard to banking intermediation to finance long-term investments could be replaced by a more diversified system leaving more room for direct funding by capital markets and the involvement of institutional investors and alternative financial markets.

The task of ensuring the existence of an effective and efficient intermediation for long-term financing is complex and multidimensional. Recently, the Commission adopted a Green Paper on the financing of the European economy that includes public consultation. Its purpose is to launch a wide debate on how to increase the supply of long-term funding and diversify the financial intermediation system for long-term investment in Europe. The answers to the questions will enable the Commission to deepen the analysis of barriers to long-term financing to determine what policy measures could help to overcome them. The whole process could lead to different results and, in some areas it may be necessary to introduce new rules or modify existing ones, while in others, the role of the EU would to foster better coordination and promotion of best practices, or to provide specific measures to certain Member States in the framework of the European community.