Market Cycles Vs Economical Cycles

The indices help the financial growth of listed companies; indices give us indications of future economic cycle. Therefore, the market operates in advance. In summary, the market cycle has a lead time of one or two quarters on the real economy. The graph above illustrates the gap between the economic cycle and the market cycle yellow blue. For long-term investors, it helps to have an idea of the sectors that beat the market during different periods.

In times of prosperity (middle-top bull), you have the total: robust growth, falling unemployment, rising wages, the credit facility. The technology sector, basic industry and capital goods will cost to investors.

 In times of crisis (early top-bear), we arrive at an inflection point. More money circulates with wage increases and low interest rates. Therefore, inflation appears like toothpaste out of its tube, which will cause a general decline in consumption. During this period, the non-cyclical sectors such as the food sector perform well. Finally, precious metals, energy and utilities benefit to the mortification of the purchasing power of households, inflationary effects.

In a recession or depression (early-late bear), households are deleveraging and they consume little, companies are restructuring according to demand and credit activity is scarce. So, we are in a vicious circle and despair reign. At stock, investors are in general, sector based discrimination favoring defensive sectors such as sustainable consumption and unsustainable and health.

 During recovery (late early bull-bear), returns for hope everything is done to break this impasse whatever means: growth is back, the activity is not shrinking consumption and restarts more beautiful. The sectors that will benefit from this new momentum are finance, health and consumer always.

 Hope this article will help you in enhancing your knowledge in the future your future stock market investments.

Why is Market cyclical in nature?

Many would know that all the free markets, like Stock Market, Commodities Market, Bond Market and etc, behave cyclically. ‘Cyclical’ here means the upside and downside movement of the Market rhythmically between a particular period. We have seen Gold markets move up during the time Stock Markets come down. This is one type of cycle in the Market when one comes down, one goes up. When Stock Markets move up, the interest rates would go up.

Why are these cycles occurring in the Markets? Let me explain the internal dynamics of these cycles. We all know that any Market exists because of the demand and supply for that asset. Let us start from a bear Market bottom of an asset. Let us assume here that the asset being Stocks. During the bottoms the demand for that particular asset would be less and the supply for the asset would be high. Since supply is more than demand, the stock price would continue its downtrend.

At one particular stage, the supply will be completely observed by the Market. Here, the stocks transfer from the people of weak hands to strong hands. Once again here is a small explanation for weak and strong hands. Those who are well informed about the company with strong financial strength can be termed as strong hand, because he wouldn’t sell the stock even if it comes down further. On the other hand, a weak hand is an Investor, who is not financially strong and not well informed about a company would sell his holdings if the prices decline further.

At this stage, stocks transfer from weak hands to strong hands. The floating stocks of a company would be held by strong hands. So slowly supply stops and demand picks up at a lower price. Now the price difference also plays a crucial role. Since the prices are low now, automatically demand picks up in that stock. At one stage, supply will be overwhelmed by the demand and the prices of the stocks start picking up. This process always takes a time to complete. That is why a cycle is created in the market. This may be of Intraday, or weekly or yearly or decades cycles.

The same process takes place during the bull market peak vice versa to create a cycle. Proper understanding of cycles is very essential for successful investing.

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