Bank of England Warns Property is a Key Risk to Economy

Bank of England Cautions – Commercial Property Main Key to Economy

The Bank of England has cautioned that commercial property would be the main key to the economy after the Brexit vote. The main concern is that the market from warehouses to office space to retail parks with regards to commercial property is deep distress. Foreign investors, who have purchased commercial property, have made around 45% of all commercial property bought and sold since 2009. The inflow of money to UK seemed to slow down, even before the Brexit vote and dropped by 50% during the first quarter of 2016.

A warning had been given by The Financial Policy Committee that `valuations in some sections of the market, particularly the prime London market had become stretched’. The Financial Stability Report of the Bank points that the real estate investment trust share prices had dropped severely and cautioned about the risk of `future marked adjustment in commercial real estate prices’. According to the translation from Bank of England, there is a risk that commercial property prices may crash.

Considerable amount of most of the valuable prime London commercial property is said to be in the City where some of the foreign investors like banks and investment manager have a

ssisted in financing a powerful and constant session of construction, which have been symbolised by iconic buildings with nicknames like the Gherkin, the Cheese-grater or the Walkie Talkie

Inflows of Foreign Investment in British Companies – Slowed Down

Since 1980, the UK had earned abroad, extremely less selling goods and services than it had spent on imports thus developing a current account deficit. Roughly there was more money going out than coming in. For years it was compensated by attracting money to the UK in two ways.

The first way was that foreign investors had been willing to buy shares in UK companies and lending money to their government. The second was, the foreign companies had been ready in investing directly for instance, constructing new buildings in the City of London or in investing in business such as Jaguar Land Rover in order to turn it into success.

The report of the FPC had stated that all inflows of foreign investment in British companies had slowed down in the approach to the referendum.

Investors’ Belief – Risk in Investing in UK Companies

Investors are now of the belief that they will be taking a risk in investing in UK companies, that are reproduced in share prices, the biggest two-day slip in the value of sterling in more than forty years.There have been some reassuring words in the report. The banks for instance have been stress examined against scenario where the commercial property drops by 30% and residential by 35% with severe recession.Banks tend to have high quality liquid assets of £600bn like shares in top companies, government cash and bonds.

They could endure losses which were double as those undergone in the 2008 crisis without falling short of money. With that security, the Bank of England ruled on that the banks did not need to build up £150bn as a `counter-cyclical capital buffer’. The counter-cyclical buffer is just cash that is kept aside in good times so that it can be made available when the down-swing occurs

If anybody says your Job is secured, Don’t believe them !

It is rumored in the media that United Kingdom is under financial trouble. Morgan Stanley the well known Investment Banker from USA has written a note, that UK may be in trouble in coming years because of fiscal creditability. The current economic situation may force the Bank of England to raise interest rates.

The high interest rates would be bad for the British Economy. Like this many European countries are under financial pressure. Now, many say that the recession is over and hereafter we are going to see steady growth in world economy.

The fact is, it is not over, and it has just started. It started in US with series of Bank failures, followed by Dubai crisis and followed by Greece crisis. Now we are hearing about UK.

This really foretells that World economic recession is not over. It has just started. Just the beginning itself has created lot of job loss in developed and developing countries. If it continues for another 3 to 5 years, then the situation in coming years will be very worse than 2008.

If this happens, then nobody’s job is secured. So be prepared for that.