Showing posts with label finance and investments. Show all posts
Showing posts with label finance and investments. Show all posts

Friday, December 14, 2012

Sovereign Wealth Funds And Global Finance

Since the early 2000s, SWFs from emerging countries like Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Singapore, China have stopped communicating with the financial sector and the general public with the aim to build an good image among investor and be reliable. Indeed, their rise was alternately seen as a form of threat to the national sovereignty of the host country, due to the lack of transparency and their alleged ambitions to invest in strategic sectors, and as a favorable element international financial stability and an important financing industrialized economies. In total, a consensus seemed to exist to recognize the positive role of these funds.

Until recently when an unexpected event came to trouble: the fund of Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Investment Company (IPIC) has withdrawn capital Barclays Bank selling on June 2 about 11% of the capital of the 16.3% stake. This operation was a surprising, since it was only made seven months before and the fund became the largest shareholder of the British bank, has allowed him to realize a profit of 1.7 billion Euros. At the same time, the action Barclays lost up to 16% during the session. Trying to get some height and to understand the implication of this new element of sovereign wealth funds and global finance as a whole. Few years back. Before the start of the subprime crisis, SWFs have managed to forge an image of stable investors, favoring a long-term horizon and supports conventional investments such as stocks, bonds or hybrid (i.e. convertible bonds). They also seemed to have no requirement to return excess capital.


Traditionally, they carefully avoided all equity investors and majority remained "passive", i.e. the investor not claiming a seat on the board and do not exercise their voting rights. Their public mandate was simply to pay the financial markets of resources from surplus reserves of oil and gas revenues, and even fiscal surpluses. Their assets under management in 2007 were estimated at more than 3000 billion, which are double the financial assets held by hedge funds or hedge funds. The combination of this long-term horizon, these financial ambitions measured, and the passivity of this important financial capacity tended to SWFs investors 'ideal' for the proper functioning of the financial sector. With the onset of the financial crisis, SWFs action took on a new dimension. Their stakes in Western banks have been hailed as rescue actions the global financial system, allowing some observers assert that "sovereign wealth funds play a fundamentally stabilizer in the international financial system and this fact is clearly verified in the current liquidity crisis ".

In total, between summer 2007 and end of 2008, the amount of equity in banks was about a hundred billion. For comparison, the amounts incurred by SWFs in Western financial institutions were valued at about two billion dollars in 2006. It was so relevant and legitimate to ask whether these new commitments, which differed widely patterns found previously, were more an expression of opportunistic strategies that will contribute to saving the international banking system. The episode Barclays has given a strong argument to critics of SWFs. Should this mean to generalize and draw a vitriolic portrait of all these funds, whatever they are? It is simply to make the obvious, funds, sovereign or not, is first of all investors. And like many traditional investors in times of crisis, some have high risks in search of high returns in the short term. Note, however, that the investments of SWFs, like the pronouncements of Warren Buffet or Albert Frère, are perceived as a buy signal from the other operators on the market, automatically assigning goodwill significant target values. By these new practices, SWFs could encourage other players in the market looking for a short-term profitability to do the same and thus unwittingly contribute to the volatility of stock prices.


Since the early 2000s, SWFs from emerging countries like Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Singapore, China have stopped communicating with the financial sector and the general public with the aim to build an good image among investor and  be reliable.

Indeed, their rise was alternately seen as a form of threat to the national sovereignty of the host country, due to the lack of transparency and their alleged ambitions to invest in strategic sectors, and as a favorable element international financial stability and an important financing industrialized economies. In total, a consensus seemed to exist to recognize the positive role of these funds ... Until recently when an unexpected event came to trouble: the fund of Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Investment Company (IPIC) has withdrawn capital Barclays Bank selling on June 2 about 11% of the capital of the 16.3% stake. This operation was a surprising, since it was only made seven months before and the fund became the largest shareholder of the British bank, has allowed him to realize a profit of 1.7 billion Euros. At the same time, the action Barclays lost up to 16% during the session. Trying to get some height and to understand the implication of this new element of sovereign wealth funds and global finance as a whole.

Few years back. Before the start of the subprime crisis, SWFs have managed to forge an image of stable investors, favoring a long-term horizon and supports conventional investments such as stocks, bonds or hybrid (i.e. convertible bonds). They also seemed to have no requirement to return excess capital. Traditionally, they carefully avoided all equity investors and majority remained "passive", i.e. the investor not claiming a seat on the board and do not exercise their voting rights. Their public mandate was simply to pay the financial markets of resources from surplus reserves of oil and gas revenues, and even fiscal surpluses. Their assets under management in 2007 were estimated at more than 3000 billion, which are double the financial assets held by hedge funds or hedge funds. The combination of this long-term horizon, these financial ambitions measured, and the passivity of this important financial capacity tended to SWFs investors 'ideal' for the proper functioning of the financial sector.

With the onset of the financial crisis, SWFs action took on a new dimension. Their stakes in Western banks have been hailed as rescue actions the global financial system, allowing some observers assert that "sovereign wealth funds play a fundamentally stabilizer in the international financial system and this fact is clearly verified in the current liquidity crisis ". In total, between summer 2007 and end of 2008, the amount of equity in banks was about a hundred billion. For comparison, the amounts incurred by SWFs in Western financial institutions were valued at about two billion dollars in 2006.
It was so relevant and legitimate to ask whether these new commitments, which differed widely patterns found previously, were more an expression of opportunistic strategies that will contribute to saving the international banking system.

The episode Barclays has given a strong argument to critics of SWFs. Should this mean to generalize and draw a vitriolic portrait of all these funds, whatever they are? It is simply to make the obvious, funds, sovereign or not, is first of all investors. And like many traditional investors in times of crisis, some have high risks in search of high returns in the short term.
Note, however, that the investments of SWFs, like the pronouncements of Warren Buffet or Albert Frère, are perceived as a buy signal from the other operators on the market, automatically assigning goodwill significant target values. By these new practices, SWFs could encourage other players in the market looking for a short-term profitability to do the same and thus unwittingly contribute to the volatility of stock prices.

Monday, August 22, 2011

Online Banking Part.II



The only entities that have managed to sustain their existence are those that are backed by a bank, maintaining an independent identity. This allowed them to diversify their services, taking advantage of operational know-how and organization of their parent and thus offer very attractive prices. Boursorama is a convincing example of this model. Since its merger with Society General, Boursorama is no longer confined to the business broker but has become a real bank.

However, if the online bank has no place as an organization independent financial, recent operations have shown that online banking is now essential to any actor with a network. New entrants in the banking landscape have understood. Insurers having embarked on the adventure of assurfinance began with an offer to acquire or develop online banking in addition to the existing branch network.

The acquisition of online banks by banks should not be seen as a way to computerize the customer relationship. Indeed, banks are seeking to boost their network by opening branches. The agency is the best way to attract customers, offering Internet users the ability to simplify the management of operations.

However some players have managed to build a profitable business model around online banking service. This model is based on tactical development articulated in two phases:

(I) a startup focused on specialized and profitable activities. For example, the tactic is to capture customer deposits and generate commissions on high value added activities (securities, life insurance ...) and for which the customer is willing to pay.

(Ii) enlargement to daily banking activities (current accounts, credit card) which are less profitable because of investments in infrastructure require significant yield little and are subject to very strong competition.

Friday, August 19, 2011

Online Banking Part.I



The acquisition of Egg by Citigroup shall deliver to the agenda the question of the model of online banks. Founded in 1998 by Prudential, Egg has always been deficient - the French branch was sold in 2004 to Auchan in the development of banking activities and never managed to achieve the objectives in terms of customers. This is the situation common to most of the independent online banks. However, their creation in the late 1990s, online banks seemed to have a promising future thanks to the Internet phenomenon. How to explain such a setback?


At the beginning, the online banks were intended to attract a large clientele (Egg counted on a portfolio of 1 million customers in 2003, five years after its creation) by proposing a new banking model: an account management possible at any time and from any Internet-connected computer, with an offer "discount". Using the Internet as the only interface between the bank and the customer had to allow significant savings, both in terms of personnel but also capital assets. Thus, online banks offer rates were very aggressive on a range of services equivalent to that of a traditional bank. However, they failed to offer prices low enough to stand out, to forget the absence of physical relationship between the customer and the banker, and manage to capture some of the customers used to a classical model.

Weakened by the explosion of the Internet bubble in 2000, online banks could not withstand the intensity of competition in the banking sector, especially as traditional banks, although behind the banks line, developed or acquired equivalent services. The interest of a "pure player" of online banking has therefore been questioned since it was possible to combine customer relationship in a network, and maximum flexibility via the Internet.

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Liquidity Crisis And Stress Testing


Liquidity risk cannot be treated satisfactorily by the VAR because it ignores the risk exposure of a portfolio during the process of its liquidation. A liquidity crisis is usually an extreme event, so it requires tools Stress testing more appropriate than the VaR.

To fight against liquidity crises, the scenarios of crisis of a financial institution must include all the fragility of its balance sheet, namely the possible mismatch between investments in illiquid assets and funding sources precarious liabilities. A Stress Test relevant to a financial institution would be important to consider the consequences of a simultaneous withdrawal of its market counterparties. This is the way in which JP Morgan is committed after the near-collapse of LTCM in 1998. JP Morgan has developed the "dealer exit stress tests" to estimate the risk of sudden drying up of market liquidity due to one or more of their counterparties. This kind of stress tests and allowed to become aware of the dangers of the high concentration of certain financial markets.

One of the limitations of VaR as originally calculated was based on an assumption of "normality" of events. Or rare events are more important in magnitude than the law says normal. The work was therefore directed towards the use of distributions from "fat tails". Stress Testing procedure has the advantage of circumventing this difficulty by specifying the desired magnitude of the event, regardless of its probability of occurrence. Therefore it is considered an extension of the VaR.

Although complementary, these two methods have significant differences, however, since they are far from operating in the same period. Indeed, while the VaR is a tool for highly automated daily monitoring, Stress Testing requires the intervention of a number of players and often requires a significant delay construction and analysis. Thus, if the answer to a VaR limit is exceeded is simple (just cut positions), the response to overexposure through a liquidity stress analysis is more complex (installation program or refinancing guarantees, etc.)..
Finally, unlike the VaR with the automatic calculation can facilitate the adoption of the outcome, the results of stress testing because they are developed from subjective elements, require a real effort to communicate and explain with decision-making bodies.



Sunday, August 7, 2011

Market Risk Assessment -2



Using a single number, indicate the VaR of a portfolio exposure to market risk and the likelihood of loss under the conditions proposed. The risk is also measured in monetary units, the same as those in which balances are established. Finally, among its other benefits, VaR:

* To evaluate the performance and correct any risk-based.
* Promote the information and transparency to the extent that it is a measure expressed in non-technical terms and may be subject to periodic reports.
* To determine the allocation of funds to invest and set quantitative limits for risk managers.

Three calculation methods are generally used to estimate the distribution of losses. They have in common to estimate the potential change in portfolio value from the data of the past, however, differ on the following:

* The historical method: observation of the historical behavior of the position to estimate the VaR;
* The parametric method: decomposition of the position of instruments based on different risk factors (equity indices, rates of different maturities, exchange rates ...) and then estimate the probability distribution of risk factors;
* The Monte Carlo simulation Monte Carlo market factors from an a priori probability distribution and estimate the VaR, as the historical method, from the sample generated.

Market Risk Assessment -1



Quantification of risk is a major concern of financial players because it allows them to answer questions like "How can we lose with our portfolio in normal market conditions or abnormal for a time horizon given? ". VaR (Value at Risk) and Stress Testing are the two most common methods of quantification of risk and are usually combined.

Although the VaR can be used as a baseline measurement for all types of risk and the overall level of society, its most common use for market risk.
VaR is a probabilistic measure of the loss of a portfolio point of a given composition as a result of future changes in risk factors. It is defined by the maximum probable loss at a confidence level of x% (for a time horizon of one day / one week, etc.).. Var corresponds to the loss that will not be exceeded in more than (100-x)% of cases, when a position given structure is maintained for a period [0, T].

If Vt is the value of the position t, the VaR is given by:
Pr {Vo - VT} ≤ ≥ VaR (100 - x) / 100

For example, consider a portfolio for which the VaR of € 100 million with a confidence level of 99% over a period of one week, meaning that, under normal market conditions, there is a probability of 1 % to record a loss of more than € 100 million for the week of detention (period over which the change in value of the portfolio is measured).

How Bank can Control Internal Transfer Rate -4




The TCI should be calculated and stored in the SI as the implementation of the operation to be exploited in the management tools of the trade act. This would also ensure consistency of refunds to the dashboard used by senior management. Of course, this also requires a vertical integration of all impacted reference: Product size / dimension structure / customer dimension. This target is difficult to achieve in the short term, however, according to their priorities and constraints, banks can already move to intermediate systems. For example, the establishment of an exchange system between the distribution and the calculation system (ALM) would ensure the inclusion of the real characteristics in the calculation of TCI. Although the TCI is not preserved, it can be recalculated to the same using the same parameters (market data, contract data), known at the time of the request. Thus, the joint calculations a priori / a posteriori would be consistent.

Other improvements could be made to the establishment of a TCI approach. For example, the business may wish to have a global vision allowing him to integrate the risk profile of the customer in managing the commercial act.
Propose systems to measure the performance of activity based on risk and include operating costs would also be an area for improvement.

The work of coherence and sophistication will make TCI a real management tool for profitability and not just a constraint for a single measurement.

How Bank can Control Internal Transfer Rate -3



To ensure proper use and membership of teams, schools must conduct a deep reflection on their process of diffusion of ICT and develop their information and their organization to ensure consistency of refunds. The objective is to obtain a homogeneous and TCI shared by all players.

Efforts should be worn on the establishment of committees (awards committee or other governing body) that would go all the advantages / disadvantages of a product and this on all axes. Indeed it is important to highlight the difficulty or ease of marketing a product: product carrier, product not meeting customer expectations, discontinued product, but also the financial aspects: produces little or very profitable ...

This information will then be shared by all to define a more accurate pricing. The bonus / penalty that can be set up in response to market developments with a view to remain competitive in the standards of the place must be clear communication activities to facilitate their adoption. The aim is to involve all stakeholders in the pricing and impose the CIT, not as a constraint but as a guarantee of profitability indicators like credit risk.

These elements will allow policy makers to reorient trade policy or financial institution on the basis of cyclical and structural analysis while ensuring compliance with the policy set.

Course to ensure the homogeneity of the refunds should be defined processes to close the dashboard rather than in their broadcasts, but in their preparation. To do the bridges between the different functions must be implemented, supported by clear governance principles.

How Bank can Control Internal Transfer Rate -2


In practice, agencies often complain of excessive levels. They face the price war generated a better distribution of offers on the market and often use the waiver system to maintain or expand their portfolios client. Salespeople do not see a sign in the TCI arguing that the competitiveness of a TCI unit operation does not enhance the profitability of the customer relationship as a whole.

The profit margin is very important to implement the development strategy of the Bank. Yet the results are often heterogeneous because of the multiplicity of stakeholders and the synchronism of the calculations. Thus during the formation of the commercial offer, the account manager is based on a grid giving along different axes (rate type, maturity, options ...) the rate of the product. This grid does not know the actual margin generated by the operation. This is calculated a posteriori (stock) with the exact characteristics of the operation. This discrepancy explains in part the discrepancies in the results presented by the commercial world versus the financial sphere.


Senior management must have coherent and unique dashboards. This coherence can only come from a good articulation of the calculations a priori / a posteriori. It is therefore necessary to develop processes and tools that do not just needed for each function (ALM, Controlling, development) but that cover, in aggregate, all the needs.

Saturday, August 6, 2011

How Bank can Control Internal Transfer Rate -1



Today the majority of banks have developed an approach by internal transfer rates. The approach differs depending on the size, the activity of institutions and the role of the ALM (Asset Liability Management or ALM).

However, she always intended to measure the contribution of the financial and commercial sphere to the MNI (and GNP).

The TCI is the center of trade between these two spheres, it is the price at which business units, respectively, puts or refinancing their resources and jobs to the ALM.

The TCI is usually built for a loan from the backing of the rate of "flux flow" of the operation, taking into account the refinancing costs, plus the cost of contract options (caps, floors ...) or customer (option prepayment ...). Thus, the performance of transactions by trading is not affected by changes in the market because the risk is transferred to ALM.

CFOs have responded to the problems of development of ICT and the processes that are derived are now under control. However, refunds are made which are not always effective to control the performance of the Bank.
To do this, banks must transform TCI management tool of the act by providing a commercial return consistent at all levels (commercial, financial, decision-maker).

Ideally ICT must be used at the proposal stage to project the commercial profitability of the customer. Indeed to drive the business effectively, we must take into account all the elements that run with the client's portfolio. But if the TCI enables sales to act on the elements they control (as the financial risks are carried by the ALM), it does not enhance the overall customer or business. Similarly, agency officials must be able to make the same tests at their level.

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

The Economic Capital Requirements




The economic method goes further in the correlation of risks. Thus, the approach in terms of economic capital it often leads to a discussion of possible spin-off or termination of activities too inefficient because too greedy in equity (although sometimes very profitable). This view of risk thus favors an approach that is more conservative but also more efficient in the management of financial institutions.


Based on calculation methods close, the two types of capital are in fact in the service of distinct interest. Regulatory capital are primarily intended to maintain the solvency of all financial markets in order to avoid systemic risk, with, ultimately, the aim of guaranteeing the rights of depositors. And, in addition to these economic goals, regulation responds to political ends, as shown in the measure of risk for companies. Indeed, the method of calculating the risk Basel II is a purpose not to penalize SMEs in their research funding from major groups.

Conversely, the economic capital requirements respond first and foremost the concern to maximize business performance, and taking into account the risk is on the basis of this single purpose. Market stability, which is an end in itself in the regulatory framework is a result driven by the desire to improve the profitability of each financial institution.

Thus, the changes marked by the Basel II promote convergence of regulatory capital to their economic equivalents. But if the approach in terms of economic capital can meet some regulatory requirements, it remains primarily a lever that should enable financial institutions to improve and better manage financial performance.

The economic approach thus requires overcoming the only framework set by the Basel Committee, which is reflected in the efforts and significant investments in collecting the necessary data and developing models related. A close collaboration between the Risk Management, Finance and the various trades is also required with a strong involvement of the "top management" to ensure proper deployment of the approach in the establishment. So many projects and milestones that represent the next challenges banks for years to come...

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Regulatory Capital



With the reform of the Cooke ratio implementation through the Basel II regulations, the calculation of regulatory capital tends to approach the method highly economical. Based on a finer appreciation of risk capital. Regulatory and would achieve the same objectives as economic capital. But if the effects induced by the application of Basel II can approach the objectives of economic capital, economic capital remains under a real added value in relation to regulatory capital for strategic management activities.


The economic capital of a financial institution, amount of capital required to meet unexpected losses (unexpected loss) is defined using internal models for each activity. The Cooke ratio in turn was based on a more comprehensive approach to risk, not broken down by activity. Conversely, regulatory capital as defined by Basel II is characterized by a measure of individual risk, including segmentation between risk classes, which brings them closer to an economic vision. Moreover, the loss rate (LGD) or exposure to default (EAD) are factors common to both types of methods in determining the capital.

However, despite these similarities, a fundamental difference between the two methods is the notion of risk considered. Indeed, the risk of "outstanding" included in the internal economic capital model is wider than the risks involved in the Basel II regulations, and cover the face of unexpected losses does not necessarily require an increase in equity . Indeed, the economic capital includes the entire system set up on the line of activity. Thus, the managerial qualities such coverage may be the face of extraordinary losses considered in determining the economic capital.

Thursday, July 21, 2011

The Origin of Great Recession Part.II


While exports of European companies were able to maintain their share of 17% of the global market since 2000, from their American rivals fell 17% to 11% over the same period. The element that is reflected in the very healthy trade balance of Europe. Of the 100 largest multinationals in the world, the EU has raised its share from 57 to 61 between 1991 and 2009. Conversely, of 26, the U.S. does boast more than 19. The key to this success: the European companies were the most highly globalized, their share of sales outside the EU up 39% against 30% for the United States.


In terms of production, American superiority is another myth. Between 1995 and 2005, if the data are attuned to replicate differences in economic cycles, trend efficiency growth in the euro area is slightly more than the U.S., said Kevin Daly, an economist at Goldman Sachs N, 2010.Concernant in undersized and intermediate enterprises, as their productivity is comparable to those of the New Continent. And their rate of globalization is very high, as the share of their sales abroad often reaches 80%. Especially, their degree of innovation is actually much higher: most industrial innovations of the last decade has occurred in Europe, while they have virtually disappeared from the U.S., where the focus is almost exclusively on technological innovation (Apple, Google, Facebook).

In addition, countless industrial producers of niche and major automakers and high-speed trains (Renault, Fiat, Volkswagen, Alstom) are European, and now dominate the trade with the emerging giants (Brazil, Russia, India, China).

The Origin of Great Recession Part.I



The origin of the "Great Recession" World 2008 - 2009, there is a drift of American finance practices resulting from the dismantling in the 1980s, dozens of laws protecting savings, followed an unprecedented collapse of ethical standards and minimum care in the world of banks and businesses. These developments have led to a culture of excessive leverage and the institutionalized cheating accountant who has infected the global financial system public and private, only too happy to expose himself, but too ill-prepared to extricate them. Despite this, the United States remains more than ever seen as the yardstick of economic success and financial Europe is declared the loser in all competitions. That of the currency and interest rate policy, that of economic growth, the hourly productivity, wage levels and labor market reforms, the fiscal discipline. And when the U.S. subprime crisis erupted, is actually Europe that has suffered most, because it undertakes to settle all problems with printing money.

This obvious bias was reflected in the outperformance of the Dow Jones U.S. index relative to the European index Euro Stoxx 50 between 2003 and today, the market penalizes the more conservative policies that emphasize the long term. But again, the myth trumps reality. The commonplace on U.S. growth is inhibited by greater numbers. On the one hand, GDP per capita grew slightly more European than the United States since 2000. On the other hand, European companies are more competitive in many ways, than their American counterparts. Recall that according to the World Economic Forum on the 20 most competitive economies in the world, 12 are européennes12 (7 of which use the euro).

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Inflation and US Economy



The Fed has chosen to focus on core inflation (core inflation), which excludes food and energy, ignoring the historically high commodity prices. It kept interest rates low and fueled the subprime bubble that has "poisoned" the financial sector in all developed countries. In contrast, the ECB has chosen to focus on overall inflation, reflecting the influence of emerging markets on rising commodity prices. This resulted in a much more accommodative monetary policy for the Fed, which will be maintained during the decade 2000 - 2010, real interest rates negative to zero half the time, conduct unthinkable in Europe, where the rate interest of the ECB held steady over the decade in a range of 2% to 4.25% and is down below 1% since May 2009.

In short, Europe was characterized by a more responsible economic management and a long term vision that contrasts with the choice of U.S. policies rewarding in the short term but long term suicidal. In doing so, Euroland has been repeatedly sanctioned as less effective by a financial community hungry for "chips" to power the "casino", and anabolic steroids to boost the stock market. United States, this meant a policy of overstimulation leading to the forced expansion of an economy that was completely retract, the time to cleanse themselves and go on a diet. So these last twenty years, Europe has been seen and experienced as rigid and boring by market operators constantly claiming she is aligned with the U.S. monetary policy, "more growth-oriented," and that it manages to stimulate consumer debt, ideal dictated by the U.S. model. "Always behind," Europe is less than the U.S. in times of euphoria, facial expression does one, and falls into a recession more severe in times of crisis, even when these crises have their origin the United States.

And one pretends to ignore that Europe, with less cheating because its economy is suffering as long as she finds herself infected, its territory by U.S. banks toxic. Indeed, the same "solutions doping" that Goldman Sachs sold to Greece have been used in the early 2000s by various regional banks and public entities in Europe, including Italy, Portugal, in the German Länder, and Eastern Europe. But the national authorities and community were not ready to provide remedies as extreme as their American counterparts.

The Dollar May End!!!



Favre appeared recently in "The End of the dollar" of Myrette Zaki is certainly better than what we hear from those who take the title literally. It's not about death or disappearance of the U.S. currency. Just the story, and especially the news of his slow decline in stages. Some passages seem suddenly very enlightening. Like this, this reflects the European perception of two irreconcilable approaches to the economy.

Ala expansionist policy and unconventional Federal Reserve opposed the plan cautiously and strictly European. Europeans are resisting the American vision, which is also that market. They seek to reduce budget deficits and considered, rightly, that the austerity efforts today will be rewarded in the future. Conversely, the word "austerity" has disappeared from the American vocabulary long ago, the latter being perceived by investors as "bad for growth."

So that even if U.S. growth in 2011 is higher than that of Europe, the price paid by the United States to have postponed indefinitely a return to austerity is incalculable long-term. Although more conservative, the ECB has chosen to limit as much as possible in November 2010, liquidity injections, such as practice shots at the Fed redemptions of government securities. With regard to redemptions of bonds of countries in difficulty by the ECB, they are limited to 72 billion euros at the end of 2010, 90 billion dollars. Including the purchase of private debt securities, the ECB is the guarantor of some 200 billion euros. In comparison, the Fed has made, by June 2011, the repurchase of securities amounting to 2.3 trillion dollars in its two programs of "quantitative easing" (QE I and II), 1000000000000 toxic securities, earning the nickname the passage of "financial shock". In other words, the comparison is almost absurd because the interventions totaled U.S. tenfold. Despite this, the ECB believes it has made a major concession by buying back shares because it has derogated from article 123 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU which outlaws "monetizing the debt", ie the process "run the printing press".

Thursday, July 14, 2011

Local Fund Management



Some local governments also use the notation to assess their client image from financial institutions.
Representing a significant market potential, and a limited risk of default, local authorities have benefited from the years 1990 positive effects of competition between banking intermediaries:

* Commoditization of credit to local authorities;
* Lowering the cost of credit;
* Strengthening innovation in the development of formulas to simplify the method of debt management and financing tailored to different aspects of local budgets.

With the strengthening of financial independence and their need for funding, the decentralization offers new opportunities and banks are continuing their efforts to penetrate while searching for a quality signature.

The landscape of local funding has therefore changed with the advent of increased competition between the banking intermediaries and diversification of the offer. The complexity of the financial environment for local communities contributes to the professionalization of their financial functions that adopt progressive methods of reasoning of private management to optimize and streamline the management of debt:

* Arbitrage rate to reduce the risk of exposure;
* Active management of cash;
* Tighter budgetary control which requires the identification of commitments vis-à-vis third parties and to book, upstream, the necessary funds;
* Taking into account the multi-annual dimension of public management in local part of a prospective approach.

These developments are a key factor in terms of financial innovation. The banks have set up the financing products (cash management, lending short-term interest rate hedging ...) and services (value of active management of debt, project financing, investment of windfall ...) enabling them meet the new budget and financial practices of local communities.

The rise of the finance function in different directions with a strong accounting is also an important vector of disintermediation. Funding for local government being deregulated, they can raise funds directly in financial markets. New financial instruments of capital markets are, therefore, supplements or alternatives to traditional bank financing. Faced with disintermediation of financing local authorities, banks offer services in financial engineering and step up their financial activities in addition to traditional banking activities.

It should however be noted that the financial instruments are much more complex than the traditional bank loan, they can be handled only by large communities that have the expertise and responsiveness necessary to make the most of market opportunities. The disintermediation is to funding of local remains generally high banked.

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Credit Rating Agencies the heart of global financial systems Part.III




In the United States is the SEC that accredits the rating agencies can note issuers, a special status, the NRSRO. It is now held by the five main rating agencies that represent 98% of the U.S. market. The two challengers were able to obtain this status, a prelude to any attempt to internationalize, in 2003 for the Canadian DBRS (Dominion Bond Rating Services) and 2005 to the American AM Best, which specializes in rating companies insurance.


This demand for self-regulation has led rating agencies to overhaul their practices in methodology and ethics. Indeed, quantitative approaches too opaque and often resulted in "very good" ratings of financial players to hidden risks, or having issued bonds such as "structured finance" in spite of the risks associated with the nature of these products.

So in March 2007, it revised its rating methodology for banks by reducing the inclusion of state support or supervisory authorities in order to avoid masking the credit risk inherent in each bank. In June of that year, S & P revised its criteria for assessing securitization vehicles financing leveraged to take into account the loan contracts with very lightweight protection clauses.
On June 25, 2007, the French Banking Commission released the list of ECAI distinguishes seven actors: the Bank of France, Coface, DBRS, Fitch Ratings, Moody's, S & P and Japan Credit Agency. This status enables credit institutions to use the notations of ECAIs mentioned above for France to determine regulatory capital requirements arising from Basel 2 regulations.

The market for credit ratings is changing in light of internal innovations, new regulations and fears of investors. This cache of new players those focus on different goals in the field.

Credit Rating Agencies the heart of global financial systems Part.II

The market for credit ratings in recent years is subject to much criticism. Indeed, it is the issuers that pay the agencies questioning the independence of these. How to be neutral given that the issuer needs only a single note? It will tend to compensate the agency assigning the highest rating. The multiple criteria analysis are, for obvious reasons of confidentiality, never disclosed which increases the opacity a little more of the rating process that can be conditioned on the purchase of related services commonly known as "notching."

By focusing on the area of credit institutions, that summarizes the scoring of key players reveals a strong tendency to align the ratings (all these establishments are located in the first five layers). This convergence makes difficult the choice of investors who may consider not having to provide a rating scale commensurate with the risks involved.

The three leaders in the market for credit ratings are today: Standard and Poor's, Moody's and Fitch Ratings. This virtual monopoly is that international organizations and regulators, the market is fragmented and anticompetitive. In addition, there may be twenty years since the ouster of the firms of smaller sizes, mainly through mergers and acquisitions process which may eventually become a disincentive to impartiality and innovation.


The existence of a thriving market and strongly oligopolistic have IOSCO to react on the limits of the rating agencies through the publication of a code of Conduct "IOSCO CRA Code". CESR has meanwhile called for a self-supervised after which the rating agencies have indicated their willingness to collaborate.

In January 2006, the European Commission considered the establishment of a regulatory framework to oversee the activities of rating agencies superfluous, and therefore formally requested in May 2006 at CESR to produce an annual report on the consideration by rating agencies the principles set out by IOSCO (quality and integrity of the rating process, independence and avoidance of conflicts of interest, transparency and relevance of the ratings, confidentiality of information).

Credit Rating Agencies the heart of global financial systems Part.I



The key player in financial markets over the last twenty years, the CRAs (Credit Rating Agencies) best known under the name of credit rating agencies have become indispensable in providing a double service: an evaluation of the financial solvency of debt issuers (states, local governments, financial institutions, insurance companies, businesses) and participating in the decision support by assessing the financial risk of bonds. These services, summarized in a note, reflect on their own assessment of an agency and its analysts and may result in the case of a "downgrade" or "upgrade" significant repercussions on the costs loan, refinancing or the share price of a company.


Appeared in the United States, the financial rating has grown exponentially due to the internationalization of the markets. The notation is a service agency charged by the issuer and allows investors to compare the financial situation of both sectors to facilitate access to foreign markets and to rapidly assess the overall financial situation of a company. This note is an indicator of default risk, which complements the analysis from audit firms and analysts for investment banks. It allows the emitting structure to negotiate its interest rates for financing bank or bond issues.


Despite common customers and investors, the rating system is not uniform between each agency, even if harmonization has often been stressed. Each agency therefore has its own rating system that distinguishes mainly long-term debt and short-term, and divided into several layers that distinguish investment grade (High Grade) to speculative grade (speculative grade) addressed the latter mainly to investors seeking a high level of performance.