India's May Month Iran Oil Imports Hit Highest Since March 2014

India’s Import – Increased to Highest Level – May 2014

Last month, India’s imports of Iranian crude oil increased to its highest level since May 2014 as the refiners enhanced the purchase ahead of a final push by the international negotiator in order to reach a deal on Tehran’s doubtful nuclear program by the end of June.

The increase to a 14 month high just two months after India, dropped its import on crude from Iran to zero under the pressure of U.S. to limit the purchases of the Islamic republics’ oil.For the first time, India did not take any Iranian oil, in at least a decade in March this year. Several analysts state that the United States, Tehran, Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia would be reaching an agreement by or littler later after June 30 deadline for a deal, though the sanctions which have cut Iran’s oil exports to less than half of pre-2012 levels are probably not likely to be lifted till next year.

United States along with its five partners have approved a way of restoring U.N. sanctions on Iran should the country tend to break the terms of any future nuclear deal, clearing a major problem of an agreement ahead of the deadline, though there are several other issues that need to be resolved.

India – World’s Fourth Biggest Oil Consumer

India, being the world’s fourth biggest oil consumer and Tehran’s top consumer after China, had shipped in about 367,900 barrels per day-bpd in nine vessels of Iranian crude in May, up 39% over April, as per preliminary data from trade sources as well as a report compiled by Thomson Reuter Oil Research and Forecasts. The data also indicated that the May imports surged by two-thirds from last year.

Between January to May, India had taken 203,100 bpd from Iran which is about 33% less oil than in the same period of last year, since the nations’ refiners had cut imports in the first quarter. This was to maintain the overall imports from the OPEC producers to a 2013/14 level of around 220,000 bpd. Private refiner Essar Oil was the biggest Indian client of Iran in 2014 which was followed by Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd and India Oil Corp.

Iran – Nuclear Programme – Peaceful/Rejects Accusations

The data also indicated Iran’s biggest Indian client in May which was Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemical Ltd – MRPL.NS that shipped in around 207,400 bpd from Iran. Purchases had been stepped up in May ahead of a three month shutdown by MRPL, during the coming monsoon season of a one point mooring site which enabled it to import oil in large crude carrier, according to a source.

The data also revealed that Indian Oil Corp. – IOC.NS, the country’s largest refiner, received around a million barrels of Iranian oil in May. The data also showed that India’s Iran oil imports surged by 43% to 316,800 bpd, in the first two months of the fiscal year being in April.

According to Iran, it states that its nuclear programme tends to be peaceful and rejects accusations from the Western countries that it wants the possibilities in producing atomic weapons. The data indicated that Iran was the seventh biggest oil supplier to India in 2014 and its share in the overall purchases rose to 7.3% last year when compared with 5.1% in 2013.

Money - Oil Prices Drop on Dollar, Oversupply

Oil Prices down – 3%

Oil price fell by nearly 3 percent recently as traders as well as investors disregarded a fifth straight weekly decline in U.S. crude stock piles and instead focused on big build in distillates which included diesel since the peak season for U.S. road travel gets under way. Core Gulf members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that pumps over a third of the world’s oil intend to have a consensus in maintaining the group’s oil output at the meeting held on Friday.

According to a senior Gulf OPEC sources has informed to Reuters. OPEC delegates informed Reuters in Vienna that `there is consensus among Gulf OPEC countries and others, to keep the –production, ceiling unchanged. Nobody wants to rock the boat.

The meeting is expected to be smooth sailing’. Dollar had gained about 0.4% against a few other currencies since the euro slipped, thus making fuel much more expensive to other currencies holder. Benchmark Brent crude oil for the month of July dropped $1.75 to a low of $63.74 prior to recovering a bit to around $63.90, down to about 2.5%, by 1010 GMT U.S. crude was $1.40 or 2.25% for $59.86 a barrel.

Analyst Gene McGillian – Market Down After Pairing Losses 

Brent had collapsed last year to almost $45 for a barrel in January from $115 last June pressing several oil producers in countries outside OPEC which included U.S. shale drillers as well. OPEC which pumps over a third of the world’s oil is likely to reject any calls for output cuts intending to produce around 2 million barrels per day beyond demand.

Crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for U.S. oil fell also together with gasoline stocks. However distillate stockpiles including diesel and heating oil rose by 3.8 million barrels, which is four times the 1.1 million barrel build prediction.

According to analyst Gene McGillian of Tradition energy in Stamford, Connecticut, comments, `that he thinks the market came back down after pairing losses at first is telling of the sentiment that people don’t really think this is a very bullish report’. He is of the belief that consistent draws for gasoline and distillates would be an indication of demand. He added. `If not with refinery runs of above 93%, we could end up with a glut of refined products in storage rather than crude now’.

Future Seems Positive

Carsten Fritsch, analyst of Frankfurt based Commerzbank tends to agree stating that `a market that does not rally on falling inventories and a slumping U.S. dollar looks vulnerable to the downside’. Ali al-Naimi. Saudi Arabian Oil Minister stated in a conference organised by OPEC in Vienna recently that the group was `currently meeting global demand and does not see this changing.

In terms of the long-term energy outlook, the future looks very positive’, he added. OPEC, by pumping 2 million barrels per day which is more than needed is helping in filling oil inventories across the world and is keeping the price of oil for delivery now at a discount for future prices.

Some of the analysts are of the opinion that there seems to be a chance OPEC could increase its target on production soon. Barclay is said to have stated in a preview note of a recent meeting that `with heightened geopolitical risk threatening oil supplies in the Middle East and North Africa, it is highly unlikely that OPEC will reduce the quote, but an increase is possible’.

Does the Euro Have A Future

Debt Crisis – Important Failings in Design of Eurozone

Debt crisis in Europe had indicated the important failings in the design of Eurozone and predictions stating that the growth would be returning have not done much to inspire confidence according to Emma Alberici. Top economists and politicians besides Former Chancellors Alistair Darling, Nigel Lawson and Norman Lamont convey that the Eurozone cannot survive in its current form.

 During the interviews and articles for The Independent today, they were questioned on their short-term as well as long term prediction for the future of the euro. Though several are of the opinion that the Eurozone could be surviving the current Greek debt crisis particularly, if the political will invest in preventing disorderly default, none are confident that it would stay on.

They are of the belief that the new European Fiscal Compact that has been agreed in principle recently is unmanageable since it would take key financial powers from the national government as well as their electorates. Several of the economists and the politicians have disapproved the rush to strictness imposed on Italy and Greece recommending that it would be counter-productive by depressing growth and competitive imbalances among Eurozone members would be difficult to overcome. They had recommended that the ultimate consequence of the crisis would be quite a smaller Eurozone with Germany at the centre and countries like Greece, Italy, Ireland and Portugal on the external.

ECB Dropped Official Interest

As per Budget Papers `recent policy action in Europe has meant that some of the worst crisis risks have abated since the end of 2012 and global conditions are expected to gradually improve’. It is now over a year since Mario Draghi, European Central Bank President, had been credited with saving Europe by informing financial markets that he would do `whatever it would take’, to save the euro, which scarcely counts as `policy action’ and Mario’s subsequent move are still to yield any apparent success.

ECB had dropped official interests to 0.5 percent for the Eurozone and the Central Bank also had indicated that it was `technically ready’, to cut the deposit rate from the prevailing zero percent to negative territory. It would need the ECB to charge banks for safeguarding the money which would make it smart for the banks to extend credit to household as well as businesses instead of holding their money in Frankfurt, which is at the ECB headquarters.

Lower interest rate do not boost growth as they did early since people in Europe and Australia tend to be extra cautious when it comes to borrowing. With unemployment in the Eurozone, having a record of 12.1 percent, smaller numbers of people tend to have the capacity of repaying the loans they may have.

Severity – An Anti-Growth Approach 

All over Europe, severity has been considered as an anti-growth approach though no reliable alternative has come up to bring back life in the 17 countries that tend to share a currency. Vice president of the European Commission responsible for the euro, Olli Rehn, sounded the only strong note of optimism and predicted that the currency would emerge stronger from the crisis.

He stated that they would be undertaking nothing less than an economic reformation of Europe and step by step, they would be creating financial stability and the conditions for sustainable growth and job creation. However Mr Darling commented that he does not thing anyone could realistically say the Eurozone would survive with its present membership and the longer the inaction goes on, the greater the chance that one or more countries would be forced out.

Eurozone not About to Collapse but Survive …..?

Professor of Economics, Dartmouth College, Danny Blanchflower, commented that `the fundamental problem which has not been addressed is that there is no growth plan for Greece and even if a new loan is given to them, they will have no means of paying it back. The markets seem to have been priced in an orderly default.

The problem lies in a disorderly default which means default and exit for Greece. There seems to be moments to play out at the final hour though two and a half years down, he has little confidence that there would be an orderly way out’.Professor of Economics, New York University, Nouriel Roubini states his opinion that `the Eurozone is a slow motion train wreck.

 Not only Greece, other countries too are bankrupt. There is a 50% probability that over the next three to five years, the Eurozone will break up. Not all the members are able to stay. Greece and probably Portugal may exit the Eurozone, Greece within the next 12 months while Portugal would take a while longer.

According to Jim O’Neil, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Former head of global economic research at the bank states that `the reality is that too many countries joined the euro in the first place and ultimately without dramatic change, they can’t probably survive. According to some the Eurozone is not about to collapse but whether it could be constant over the long term is not known.

When is the Best Time to Buy Foreign Currency

Being Smart Essential – Buy Foreign Currency

Bob Atkinson of TravelSupermarket advises that one could save a tenner for every £100 one tends to spend abroad, by being smart. He states a traveller should `plan what one is going to do and how they are going to spend overseas though not any plastic. Look for credit and debit card which are designed for usage overseas.

The market-leading deals like the Halifax Clarity credit card and Norwich & Peterborough debit card, have no hidden currency loading fees or transaction fees. If one tends to spent for instance 600 euros on one of these cards they tend to actually spend about £470 based on the prevailing rates.

On comparing it to the worst option which is to rock up at an airport and actually buy euros without pre-ordering, they endup spending about £515 on the present day’s rate at some place like Heathrow’. He further adds `that’s a difference of around 10% which means it’s effectively like throwing away £10 for every £100 spent on holiday’.While purchasing holiday cash, most of the people leave it till the last moment and tend to completely ignore it at times till they arrive at the airport.

Commodity loaded with Poor Exchange Rate/High Transaction Fees

Several travellers generally pay more than the going rate for their holiday cash hence some advance planning could help them in avoiding poor exchange rates or exorbitant transaction fees. Most of them tend to leave this job at the last minute resulting in paying extra pounds or more.

Just as one would check for the best deals on hotels and flights, they should also do the same when it comes to purchasing foreign currency which is a commodity that is often loaded with poor exchange rate combined with high transaction fees. Individuals should avoid buying the holiday cash at the airport since it is the most expensive place to purchase the spending money and the rates are extremely bad since the providers have a captive audience.

The main issue is `time’ and one should be wise in thinking about currency much in advance prior to leaving for the holiday. The first step to be taken is to look at the exchange rates which would help in maximising how much local currency one would get from the exchange.

Euro, the single currency, till recently has maintained its strength and customers are recommended to purchase their euros when the pound could make gains against the single currency. In the meantime, sterling has performed more positively against the single currency and holidaymakers need not rush and buy euros now.

Knowledge on Value of Currencies

On the contrary, if one is heading out to the United States, one could be wise in purchasing dollars sooner instead of later since at the moment the pound tends to perform well against the dollar though the same is not expected to last. Gaining knowledge on the value of currencies one could be looking to purchase, could save them of money in the long run.

The only way to know if one is getting the best exchange rate is to be knowledgeable on what the currency rate is. Prior to the trip, one needs to check on currency converter to have an idea of what exchange rate to expect. If undertaking a prolonged trip, check on the rate periodically to remain updated of any major changes.

According to Alistair Cotton, corporate dealer at currenciesdirect.com states that `now is a very good time to be buying US dollars. We are still on multi-year highs and businesses and people travelling abroad this year should be taking advantage at these levels’.

Fastest/Simplest Method - Online

Lucy Lillicrap of AFEX comments `current levels provide an excellent opportunity to buy the dollar at rates rarely seen since before the financial crisis’. Jeremy Cook, chief economist at worldfirst.com on the other hand states that he `thinks that the US dollar will progress through the year as one of the best performing currencies in the G10 space as the economy continues to rebound.

The Federal Reserve is much like the Bank of England, trying to remain vague on when interest rate rises will come but a stronger economy, fuelled by strong domestic industry and receding fiscal drag will increase the pressure on Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen to normalise policy sooner rather than later’.

According to Josh Ferry Woodard of TorFX, he states that `in the light of Fed chair Janet Yellen’s suggestion earlier that the interest rates could be raised in the USA by April next year, it is possible that the US dollar is the one currency that the pound may struggle to stay afloat against.

For this reason, it is a very good time to buy US dollars; the pound-to-dollar exchange rate may not reach levels this high for a long time’. The fastest and the simplest method to buy currency is online, on the internet where it would be easy to compare rates and one could also get a much better deal.

Beware Credit Card Firms’ Odious Tricks

Credit Card Companies – Reduced Rewards/Cash-backs

Starting a new business and making arrangements for the fund could at times come from friends or family or even a small business loan from the lender or financial institute. However, when these options seem to be unavailable, one could turn to credit card in availing the funds for a small business.

Credit card is not an invitation to spend money one does not own but the consumer needs to be cautious in using the credit card wisely. Several of the consumers do not take the trouble in reading the card statement carefully that would make them cautious of all the small charges which are imposed by the card company.

It means that a credit card is an easy packaged though a terribly priced personal loan which has the utilities but the charges seems to outweigh the benefits. Since updated EU clampdown on charges has been hitting on the profits, Credit card companies have reduced their rewards and cash-backs. Peter Jackson of Stockport speculates on the rewards that these credit card companies tend to hand out to consumers in a way to confuse them on how much they actually pay to use them.

Companies – Hidden Charges

Jackson writes that `any perks that individuals tend to receive have been paid for, by themselves without their knowledge. What makes matter worse is the fact that because everyone pays the same prices in the vast majority of retail outlets, anyone without a cash-back deal is subsidizing the customers who do’.

 He further goes on the same point with regards to current accounts stating that `this has been going on for years in the form of free banking. Banks give free bank accounts and then make their profits from people going overdrawn’.

In all honesty, he could have made the same point about mortgages, energy bills or mobile phone charges and people with the time and energy seeking out the best deals tends to do well. Others get penalised through higher charges or fewer discounts. Jacksons continues that `instead of charging a fair price for a fair service, companies tend to put all their efforts in hiding charges.

Introductory Deals of Zero Percent – Odious Deceits

It ends up with the poor and financially illiterate supporting the well-off. Why is there no open and honest charge, without all the cross-subsidizing?’ he asks. He states that it is a fair enough question and the one which he constantly puts forth to financial institutes over the years.

There are few notable exceptions most of whom are too frightened of losing business should refrain from competing with the same marketing tricks which their rivals tend to have. The introductory deals of zero percent which credit cards tend to offer are one of the most odious deceits, since people get affected by huge balance transfer fees together with high charges towards the end of the term.

 The faster these tricks or deceits are barred, the better. Consumers should bear these facts in mind and be wary while using the credit cards and avoid the traps the card companies and banks utilise to entice consumers getting them to pay all kinds of penalties and fees.