Oil Prices Tumble to Five-Year Low as OPEC Gathers in Vienna

Oil Prices Collapses to Lowest Level in Five Years

As OPEC leaders meet in Vienna to set the prices for the year ahead, oil prices have collapsed to the lowest level in five years. After the US stockpiles flowed in November, Brent crude for January delivery dropped by 3.7% to $42.77 per barrel in London. US Energy Information Administration shocked the market, which had hoped the level of oil to drop during winter, by reporting that the glut of oil in America had increased by 1.2m barrels till November 27 to reach 489.4m barrels thus approached its highest level on record.

In the meanwhile, weak inflation report from Eurozone raised the possibility of the European Central Bank launching a new round of motivation sending the dollar to its highest level over 12 years. Besides this it also weighed on the oil price as the greenback is utilised to price the product.

The oversupply of crude oil due to its strong production from the U.S. together with some of the OPEC members, has been keeping the prices over 45% less than their highs from last June. Several of the investors as well as the analysts are of the belief that the global oil surplus would shrink in the coming months as demand increases and U.S. production falls in reaction to spending cuts.

Output Level Crossed its Quota of 30M Barrel/Day

In the meanwhile, market watchers are of the opinion that world-wide crude output tends to continue exceeding the consumption. The July delivery of light sweet oil, recently feel by $1.64 to $58 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The global benchmark Brent fell $1.77 to $62.03 per barrel on ICE Future Europe.

 In its last meeting, OPEC which had opted against reducing production inspite of plunging oil prices is expected to stick to that policy. The group’s output level had already crossed it quota of 30 million barrels per day. According to government reports, the output is near multi-decade in Iraq, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. Additional Iranian crude would probably enter the market this year, if on-going negotiations with Iran would result in a lifting of sanctions.

Senior market strategist at Chicago brokerage iiTrader, Bill Baruch has stated that `Russia’s picking up production, the U.S. is picking up and there seems to be no reason why OPEC would hold back from picking up production. We could see prices below $50 by the end of this month’.

Shale-Oil Production to Rise in the Coming Years

The Chief Executive of ConocoPhillips, Ryan Lance had mentioned in a conference ahead of the OPEC meeting that U.S. shale-oil production would rise in the forthcoming years as drilling would get cheaper and more efficient. He stated that the industry had already cut the price wherein it could profitably produce shale oil by 15% on an average and by 2020; shale oil production could become 15%-20% more efficient.

In the U.S., some of the shale-oil producers state that if prices tend to stabilize above $60 a barrel, they could increase the production. Several times recently, the U.S. benchmark had traded above $60 a barrel though had not held above it. John Saucer, vice president of research and analysis at Mobius Risk Group in Houston, had stated that the `OPEC was successful in shaking out high cost inefficient guys who did not make any cash at $100 and those left were certainly leaner, meaner and more efficient’.

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The Chinese Yuan is Going Global

Yuan Part of Selected Basket of Currencies

According to the International Monetary Fund – IMF, the Yuan is now part of selected basket of currencies which till now included only the US dollar, the Japanese yen, the euro and the British pound. The Yuan would not generally be a part of the basket till September 2016 and this move would not be having any immediate influence on the financial markets.

This gesture seems to be a significant one and an indication that China has been progressing faster and further on the global financial stage. It has been predicted by Nomura Securities that by 2030, the Yuan would become one of the highest three major international currencies, `a peer to the US dollar as well as the euro, as the most used currencies in the world’.

However, it all depends on whether China tends to continue its financial reforms which have been one of the major reasons of the IMF’s verdict of including the Yuan in this choice basket currency. The IMF has informed that` the decision was an important milestone in the integration of the Chinese economy in the global financial system’. It would bring a more robust international monetary as well as financial system.

China – Important to the Global Financial System

Nomura has informed that though the share of yuan’s trading volumes in the international currency market tends to be small, less than 2% comparative to China’s share of global gross domestic product, its daily trading volume had tripled between 2010 and 2014 from $34bn to $120bn. This indicates that there is a lot more yuan on the markets.

For the last few years, China had been working towards this and it is amazing that their extremely managed currency seems fit to enter this special basket of freely traded currencies. Beijing considers the inclusion of the yuan as an indication of how important China has become to the global financial system.

The world’s second largest economy had to push through numerous changes in recent times inclusive of enabling foreign investors in accessing its stock markets, to make this happen. The main determinant as to whether the yuan gets to the next step will depend on how transparent China would be about the way it tends to run its financial market.

Chinese Official under Pressure/Scrutiny

Considering the slowing economic growth in China, analysts have accepted that there have been some disturbing signs which the government is trying to either roll back on some the key financial changes or that those in charge may not know what they are doing. The point is that earlier this year, the effective devaluation of the year had taken the markets by surprise and the People’s Bank of China was disapproved for mishandling the communication around how the events had unfolded.

Chinese officials are now under more pressure as well as scrutiny in getting their message right. Moreover the world would also be watching to see what type of influence more yuan would have in circulating in the international markets. Should the yuan tend to be a fixture of the global economy, there is a possibility that the rest of the world would become even more exposed to what Beijing does, which will make it more important that the leaders of China push through meaningful financial changes.

Why China ‘Spill Over’ Poses Risks for the Euro Zone

China’s Slowdown – Risks for Euro

The economic slowdown of China could face risks for euro ranging from decreasing exports, capital outflows and exchange rate fluctuations, according to the European Central Bank – ECB. China the second biggest economy following the US plays an important role in the global trade and its economy seems to have slowed down every year since 2010.

It seems to be continuing in doing so till at least 2016 when the International Monetary Fund forecasts growth by 6.3%. From the start of 2015, the slowdown of growth in China has condensed euro area exports especially exports of machinery and transport equipment and this has brought about adverse consequence particularly for exporters of manufactured goods.

 According to the bank’s recent financial stability review, this has been accountable for around 90% of goods exports to China. The ECB which tends to control the monetary policy in the 19 countries using the euro informed that 1% point slowdown in Chinese real gross domestic products – GDP would drop around 0.1-0.15% points off euro area movement after around two to three years.

Confidence Shock – Led to Tightening of Financial Situation

The ECB have stated that an economic `confidence shock’ probably owing to a worse than expected slowdown in China could have led to a tightening of financial situation in the emerging markets with a further slowdown of euro area foreign demand.

It added that besides capital outflows from China if not compensated by the other private or official flows it could activate a depreciation of the Chinese currency taking into consideration, exchange rate depreciation of other emerging market currencies’. The bank has commented that China’s massive economy would mean that it had manipulated a significant effect on the charge of oil though this had declined in recent years as its rapid growth slowed down.

The U.S. crude oil prices had fallen by about 45% since the last year owing to an imbalance of demand as well as supply which has been partially motivated by the economic slowdown of China, an important purchaser of commodities.

Chinese Economy – Important Effect on Oil Prices

According to ECB, the Chinese economy size means that it has had an important effect on the prices of oil though its relevance had declined in recent years since the growth continued to weaken. Hence the influence of slowdown in China on the prices of oil could be limited but it significantly is based on whether the growth in other emerging market economies also slows down.

The background of global economic, including that of China could influence the decision of ECB on whether to extend or expand its 1 trillion euro – $1.1 trillion, asset purchasing program. It is said that the central bank is extensively expected to do so, when it would meet in Frankfurt on December 3.

In its report, the bank concluded that the influence on the euro area of a potential further slowdown in China eventually centres on the extent to which this slowdown spills over to the other emerging markets more generally and the point to which the subsequent loss of confidence tends to affect the global financial market together with global trade.

Bitwalking Dollars: Digital Currency Pays People to Walk

Digital Crypto-Currency Generated by Human Movement

A digital crypto-currency which is generated by human movement has been recently launched. Bitwalking dollars could be earned on walking unlike the other digital currencies like Bitcoins which have been mined by the computers.

To begin with, users would be given the opportunity to spend what they have earned in an online store or trade them for cash. A phone application tends to count and verify user’s step with walkers with the opportunity of earning around 1 BW$ for around 10,000 steps – about five miles.

At first users would be provided with the opportunity of spending what they have earned in an online store or trade the same for cash. Nissan Bahar and Franky Imbesi, the founders of the project have got over $10m of preliminary funding from largely Japanese investors in order to aid the launching of the currency and develop the bank which verifies steps together with any transfers.

Murata, the Japanese electronics giant has been working on wearable wristband which would be providing an alternative option of carrying a smartphone to show how many BW$ the wearer has earned.

Bitwalking - Additional Incentive to Keep Fit

Shoe manufacturers are ready to accept the currency while a UK high street bank is in talks in partnering with the project at one of the UK’s largest music festivals to be held next year.It is said that the founders have a track record in disruptive technology which tends to help developing nations as well as the richer ones.

 Keepod had been launched last year, a $7 USB stick which performs like a computer in Nairobi, Kenya. The purpose of Bitwalking is to take the benefit of the trend for fitness followers by providing additional incentives in order to keep fit.

The global scheme intends to partner with sportswear brands health insurance firms, health services, environmental groups as well as advertisers who may be offering unique insights in the audience they may be focusing on. Employers in the future may be offered a scheme to provide to their employees in encouraging them to stay fit, with the currency they tend to earn converted and thereafter paid along with their salaries.

The average person in developed countries tends to earn around 15 BW$ a month, it is expected that in poorer countries where people need to walk further to school, work or to collect water, the Bitwalking scheme would be beneficial in transforming lives.

Currency to be Earned by Anybody

The influence Bitwalking would be making in developing countries does not seem to be lost on the founders and is the main reason in creating the currency. One of the African nations to join at the launch of the project, in Malawi, the average rural wage is about US$1.5 per day.

Carl Meyer, Bitwalking manager for Malawi, has set up the first two Bitwalking hubs in Mthuntama and Lilongwe for local people to be trained on how to trade the BW$ online for US$ or Malawi Kwacha, the local currency.

Bitwalking has not released the procedure used in verifying steps, officially but states that it utilises the handsets’ GPS position and Wi-Fi connection for the calculation of the distance travelled. Transfers of the new currency would be monitored cautiously with transactions going through a central bank which would verify individual deal utilising the block chain system used in transferring other crypto-currencies like Bitcoin. It is a currency which can be earned by anybody irrespective of who they are, or where they come from, according to Franky Imbesi.