Short term Technical Outlook of Nasdaq

Ever Since September 2009, Nasdaq Index is in expanding triangle pattern. The present rally from september 2010 seems to be the third leg in the upside, which is also seems to be the last leg of the expanding triangle.

Presently, Nasdaq is trading at 2660 levels. Earlier, in 2007 it tested a high of 2870. That level 2870 is likely to be the next upside target of Nasdaq. In the downside the level 2550 is going to be a strong support in the near future. For another 2 to 3 months it is likely to trade between 2550 and 2850.

In the medium term a correction could be possible towards 2100 from 2850.

Short term Technical Outlook of Dow

Dow has been in a medium term rally since it tested 9600 on july this year. Recently, it made a year high at 11615. After testing its high it has been trading just below that level for the past two trading sessions. From here on the level 11300 seems to be crucial. As long as it trades above 11300, it is likely to test 11900 in coming weeks.

On contrary , if breaks 11300 and trades below that level, then it is likely to decline towards 10900 in coming weeks. Futures traders can hold their longs with a stop at 1130. And fresh Shorts can be initiated when Dow rallies towards this level.

The long term trend continues to be bearish. Dow is likely to make major top in the middle of 2011. Until then, one can hold their investments.

Short term Outlook of Jakarta Stock Exchange Index JKSE

For the past three months, JKSE is taking support at 3520 levels and it is likely to act as a trend decider for the coming trading sessions.  In the upper side it was resisted from 3800 region for two times.  Currently it is trading 3600 and it is very close to the short term support level of 3520.

If the index breaks 3660 in the short term it is likely to remain bullish and in the upper side it would try to test 3800 levels once again. On contrary, if it fails to move past 3660, then it could all set to test 3520 again.

Right now, the trading strategy should be based on the level 3660. Traders have a eye on that level to initiate short or long positions.

In the long term charts, the index has moved past its 2008 high of 2850, and made an all time high at 3800. Technical analysis of the index shows it is going to top out in this year 2011.

Behavior of World Indices in 2010

The year 2008 saw a big correction in stock markets world over and it was followed by a rally from 2008. Many Indices rallied and gave one of the biggest appreciation in 2009. The year 2010 can be considered as not bad.


The European Indices rallied in 2010 but the magnitude is less when compared to the Asian Markets. Many Indices in Asia moved past their 2008 highs. Srilankan Stock indices moved passed their 2008 high. Indian Market came very closer to their high, but so far it has not crossed that levels.

But the notable performance is from China’s SSEC. When compared to their other Asian counterparts, the chinese index has so far under performed. If the stock market continues to under perform in coming months, I doubt whether they could maintain their present growth rate.


Since Stock Market prices reflect the future perception of the Market, continuous underperformance foretell a big correction in China’s Stock Markets. If the fastest growing economy in the world, china, doesn’t see their indices move up, it cannot sustain its growth.


In US, the markets rallied, but is has not rallied as much the Asian markets moved.

Is Insurance needed ?

          Insurance is needed to face unwanted death or unexpected accident in one’s life. Insurance is ensuring your family’s good life after your death or ensuring a good life for you after an unwanted and unexpected incident in your life. If you have a motor vehicle, you need to insure it for the same purpose.

Types of Insurance

Life Insurance
This insurance is to cover your life. You can have a term insurance or a endowment policy.
In term insurance, you will get coverage but you will not get any money back. But the amount paid here is very meager.
In endowment policy, you will get coverage and also some many back in a future date. But the premium here is more than the term insurance premium.


Accident Policy
In this policy, in case of any accident, the amount insure will be given. Otherwise, you wont get any return.

Vehicle insurance
In this insurance, the cost of repairing the damage or theft, the life of the driver and the life of the third party who is injured by the vehicle will be covered. In case, if none of the above it claimed, you will not get a return.

Mediclaim
This policy is to cover all your medical expenses.

A person should take all these policies to secure his family from any unexpected events. In particular, the breadwinner of a family should compulsorily have these insurances.

Risk involving in Foreign investment

Foreign direct investment plays a vital role in the international business. It provides a new market and marketing facilities, production facilities in lesser cost, access to latest technology, new products. Foreign direct investment simply means a firm from one country making raw physical investment to build a factory (direct investment is the investment in buildings and equipments not in portfolio investment) in another country.

                In FDI there are so many risks ply with let us analyze one by one the first and foremost one is the country risk. All business dealings involve risk. When the business cross the national boundary then it faces additional risk beyond our control let us analyze one by one. These risks are of national differences in economic conditions, policies, socio political situations and the currency values. You may categorize them in to following six main headings.

                Economic Risk

               

                Transfer Risk

               

                Exchange Risk

               

                Location Risk

                Sovereign Risk

                and

               

                Political Risk.

               

                Economic Risk is the significant change in the economic conditions that can produce major change in the expected return of a foreign investment.

                Transfer risk simply means the risk arising from the decision of the foreign government to restrict capital flow. As the governments have the liberty to revise their policy at any time the transfer risk is also high.

                Exchange risk is an unexpected change in the exchange rate. As the currency hedging mechanisms is impractical over a long period, the exchange risk can be developed.

                Location risk is the risk which includes spillover effects caused by the problems of the particular region or the problems in the partner country.

                Sovereign risk procedures of a government’s capability to pay are similar to transfer risk measures. Sovereign risk has close association with transfer risk.

                Political Risk concerns risk of change in political climate, change in government, and change in society or any other non economic factor.

                 Hence every foreign company examines various methods to measure the risk of investing in a foreign country and the lay a strategy to minimize the risk.

                                                                                                                                          (to be continued)

Carbon Trading

After the Kyoto Summit, all the developed countries agreed to limit their emission level and if not they have to pay a price for their emission. Here the carbon trading comes to ply. The main idea behind carbon trading is to curtail the emission levels of each country and give monetary benefits to the countries with low emissions. As the developing countries can start with clean technologies they will get more monetary benefits from the developed countries.

          For example if a company in India cuts X tones of carbon, it can sell this much amount of points to a company which is emitting carbons in the developed country. The World Bank itself is the monitoring authority.

                Hence carbon trading allows carbon emitting industries in the developed countries to set of their emissions by investing in a large scale mass reforestation projects in the developing countries to nullify their emission. 100000 hectares of forest can eliminate one million tons of carbon in a year from the environment.

                The calculation is very simple. Half of the trees dry weight is carbon. The amount of carbon stored by the trees is calculated from their volume (the volume is calculated the height and the area of cultivation of forest).From the volume the dry wood is calculated and from this carbon proportion is estimated. These projects not only directly fetch money but also indirectly give social, economic and environmental benefits to the developing country.

                India is the second largest country after china. India has generated 30 million carbon credits and expecting 140 million credits in the long run. Around thousand carbon credit projects have already started and around two hundred new projects every year added every year.

                Presently, carbon credit from thermal projects gives 7 to 8$ in the international market. Now NCDEX  is to commenced carbon trading in Indian market. Carbon trading is one of the fast growing volatile market.

Are ULIPs Good Investments?

The unit linked Insurance plans are simply called ULIP. ULIP are financial instruments which will give a term insurance coverage and, investment in stocks  In ULIP, the premium paid by investor goes to two separate investments. One goes for your insurance and the other goes for the investment in stock market. The insurance part consumes less amount and the investment plan consumes more amount. But, in the first year, a major portion of the premium goes to insurance companies as administrative costs which includes the commission paid to the Agents.
So, in the first year, a major chunk of the premium goes to the company and a small amount of the premium is invested in stocks and a small portion is taken for the term insurance. From second year onwards, the administrative costs will be reduced substantially and the balance will be used for investment in stocks and also for the insurance.
If the premium is paid for a long period, at the end of the maturity, one will get a good return. Will this investment option get benefit to the investors? Stock market investments are destined to give good results in the long term, say, more than 10 years.
But people attracted to these plans only during bull market. Their investments get eroded in the next bear market. Now they get confused whether to hold or get rid of it or to invest more. As I said earlier, stock market are bullish in the long term, always, and it will give good results in the longer run. So if an Investor continues his investments even in bear market surely investment in ULIPs will be beneficial.

Is the Indian Stock Market topping out?

     The Indian Stock Market bench mark Index Sensex has scaled 21150 on January 2008 and it followed by a big crash and by October 2008, it tested a low of 7700, a level achieved in just 10 months. Stock Market crash was followed by economic slow down. The Indian Economy which was growing around 8% at that time, saw a downturn in its GDP growth.

     Now the same Bench mark Index Sensex is trading well near its all time high of 21150. When Sensex was trading in 2008, its PE ratio is 21. It was at that time a high Price to Earnings ratio. Historically when ever Sensex trades above the PE ratio of 20, it tops out.

    Now, with Sensex trading above 20000, already the PE ratio has crossed the 21 mark and it is trading well above that. Fundamentally, a top has to form around this level. Technically speaking, a double top formation is a possibility. Technical and Fundamental indicators point to a top at this level. Sentimentally, euphoria is seen in stock market circles. The continuous flow of FII funds in the market is boosting the sentiment. The bullish sentiment has reached the levels that was seen in January 2008.

    I feel it is the right time to withdraw the funds from stock market. With everything getting saturated, a bullish sentiment alone cannot take the market further. So a correction is going to be there in the near future.

    Protect your capital and don’t get sucked into the crowd. Beware, in stock markets, crowd is always wrong.

Will a ban on outsourcing Save US from recession?

The Obama Administration in USA has slapped service tax on companies which are outsourcing to other countries ( mostly to India ), in order to bring jobs back to USA and to improve the business conditions in USA. The Indian Software and BPOs are likely to suffer in the future, if the US companies stop outsourcing from India.
Will this act stop US from going into recession? If this is the question, then the answer would be good ‘NO’. The Global Economies suffered a setback in 2008 because of the crash in the stock Markets world over. The stock Market Crash has jolted the US and European Economies in particular.
Ever since the crash, the Asian and South American Economies improved and their Stock Markets rallied to their 2008 levels. But the US and European Economies seen little improvement and their Stock Markets rallied but not to the level which it was seen in 2008 January.
Since Stock Markets in these countries never rallied much, the liquidity, business confidence, job conditions have not improved. This percolates into their Economies which in turn is looking weak right now. Banning Outsourcing by the US companies in no way going to improve their economy.
Actually, it is likely to impact badly their economies in the Future. The performance of the US Companies depends upon the cost cutting measures they are taking. Stopping outsourcing will surely increase the working cost and it will be reflected in their bottom line.  A weak performance of these companies will further dampen the US Economy.

Gold is likely to top in 3 months

Gold, it seems it is likely to be topped out in coming months between 1250 and 1300. Technically speaking, since 2006 Gold is in a expanding pattern. The first top formed on 2006, followed by the next on 2008 and the present top is likely to be formed on 2010.
In a expanding triangle, the first upside leg is followed by a first downside correction and it will be followed by the second upside leg by the second downside leg. The second upside and downside will be bigger than the first upside and downside legs. The third would be bigger than the second one.
The present technical setup of Gold shows, it is in the third upside leg and it is likely to be followed by a third downside leg and it would be the big downside in last 4 years since 2006. If that happens then Gold is likely to fall towards 900 USD in another 1 year.
Any market has see a bull and bear market. We have already seen bull market. So surely there will be bear market in Gold also. No one can take the rally in Gold as granted. Investments in Gold and related products should be avoided at this juncture.

What skill is really needed for a trader in stocks

Trading in Stock Market is one of the toughest mental game in the world. Very few succeed in the game and majority of traders lose in the markets. What makes the difference between a loser and winner in stock market. Since trading stocks is a mental game, those who are having good emotional control over them win in the stock market.

If anybody takes decision impulsively instead of logically, he is likely to end up in loss. What most trader lack is, the ability to cut loss when it is small and the ability to hold their winning position till it gives a good profit. Lacking of both these qualities lead to loss in stocks.

The first and most important of this is, the ability to cut down their loss when it is small. Once you take a position, and if it is against you, you should not live on your wish but you should act on what your technical knowledge tells you. If your stop loss levels are triggered you need to book loss when it is small. Here always comes your ego. It will tell you not to close your position as if you will be right. Those who over come this ego, will certainly close their position. So one main quality a trader should posses is, he should overcome his ego.

The next thing is booking profits early. Even though it is not as evil as running the loss, it too have the same financial disaster. If you couldn’t make big profits in the long run, then what is the use of trading in the markets, that too with big risk associated with it.

Be a trader who book loss early and allow to run your profits. As legendary trader Jesse Livermore said ‘ Sitting right and sitting tight ‘ will give good profits in the long run

Indian Currency now has a new symbol

Of late, the Government of India has approved a new symbol for Indian Rupee in line with USD ( $ ), Euro and etc. Though the decision is late, it has come at a appropriate time when India is being recognized a world economic power. G-8 Group has lost it significance and it is being replaced by G-20 in which India and China are members. And it shows the importance of India in world arena.
The Government of India has shortlisted five symbols to finalize in one symbol from that. Finally, the symbol designed by Udayakumar from Chennai has got the nod of the government and he was awarded Rs 2 lakhs cash prize. Now the Government has to seize the opportunity that is being created in International arena as an important world power to market the symbol in financial world to popularize the symbol.
The Re symbol is not just a symbol, it is the symbol of India's pride, importance and dominance in international arena. We all know how the USD $ and Euro are dominating the world trade. Hope the Indian Rupee will rule the world one day.

The Legendary Trader, Jesse Livermore

Jesse Livermore was an legendary trader of stocks and commodities during the early 20th century. At the height of his fame, he earned more than USD 100 Million. He earned and lost millions of Dollars in his career.

At the young age, he left his house to work in bucket shops. Bucket shops are nothing but gambling house and their bets are based on the actual movement of stocks in New York Stock Exchange. Soon he mastered that game and started betting real money on stocks and earned windfall profits. This led to the banning of him from most of bucket shops. He earned more than what he gave to them.

One fine morning he moved to New York to try his luck. His experiences in the bucket shop had helped in making a good fortune in 1909 and 1929 crashes. Most of the time he played the Bear. He was known at that as a big Bear in the stock Market circles.

His famous strategy was to add further positions in winning trades and cutting the losses quickly. Some times he did not follow his own rules. So he lost all his fortunes. He died by killing himself and he was in huge debt when he died.


He has written a book  called ‘ Reminiscences ' of a stock market ‘ under a pseudo name. This Book is considered as a classic for its depiction of speculation in an interesting way, even now.

W D Gann, A Legendary Trader of Markets

 

Gann was born on June 6, 1878 in Texas, USA. His father was a cotton industrialist. He started trading the stocks in 1902 when he was 24.

An avid reader of charts, he developed over the years a Technical Analysis method to determine the movement of stocks. He never revealed the method to anyone but he hinted that his forecasts were based Law of Vibration. He accurately forecasted where a stock would sell.

In 1909,  'The ticker and Investment Digest" Magazine reported they had oversaw his trading for October of that year and it included 286 winning trades and 22 losing, a win rate of 92%, which is unthinkable even now.

He also hinted what ever happened in stock market had happened earlier. He said, ‘History always repeats itself’. Later, he used astrology in predicting the stock market movements. And also Gann described the use of geometrical angles in the stock market.
After acquiring a huge fortune, he started teaching students of Technical Analysis. He wrote the following books;-

• How to Make Profits Trading in Puts and Calls
• 45 Years in Wall Street
• Truth of the Stock Tape
• How To Make Profits in Commodities
• Truth of the Stock Tape and Wall Street Stock Selector

Any Student of Technical Analysis should at least have some insight about his method to be a successful Analyst.

Some Useful Trading Resources of Traders

For successful Investing or trading, one needs knowledge. A good and through knowledge about the financial Market is necessary for a successful financial life. You need to get quality inputs about the market to enhance your knowledge below I have given some resources which I felt best to my knowledge.

If you are interested in Technical Analysis, then these following sites would be of more helpful to you.
1. www.Stockcharts.com
2. www.Elliottwave.com
3. www.neowave.com
4. www.traders-talk.com

Here are some of the must read books on Technical Analysis and Investing

1. Technical Analysis explained – by Martin Pring
2. Elliott Wave Principle – by Robert Prechter
3. Reminiscences of a Stock Market Operatior – by  Jesse Livermore

Still, there are some more interesting books. I will mention it in the next post.

Which sector is going to lead the next bull market?

The million dollar question that is being raised more often during Bear Market is, which sector is going to charge the next bull Market. Everybody has their own answers to this question. Let me have my answer here. My predictions are based on Technicals.
If you look at the charts of any sector  which has undergone a bull market, we would find the previous bear market to that bull market would be mild one. Which means, the sector that is going to undergo bull market is likely to see a not so strong bear market.
If it sees a strong bear market, it would not be possible for that sector to climb such a big height to lead a big bull market. So, the previous bear market should be a mild one. Going by that case, then we can find Pharma, FMCG, Banking Sector didn’t see a big bear market during 2008 bear market.
This indicates this sector is likely to lead the next bull market which is likely to start in 2 or 3 years, worldwide. Investments in this sector is likely to give good returns in coming years. Be smart when it comes to investing.

Types of Trading Styles of a Stock Market Trader

Many people who are new to the stock Market might have heard about the words Intraday Trading, Swing Trading, Momentum trading and etc. To understand the concept simply, I have here given some explanations to these terms.
Intraday Trading
If any body buys stocks using margin money and sells the stocks on the same day itself, then it is Intraday Trading. Here buying and selling is done on the same day itself. The quantity may vary according to the trader. The intention of a day trader is to use the movements in the intraday to make money. Personally, it is the toughest trading in the Market.
Positional Trading or Swing Trading
If a trader takes a long (buy) or short (sell) position in the futures market and holding it for more than one day, then it is positional trading. The intention of the positional trader is to make use of the short term price movements of the stock, either in the downside or in the upside. The difference between day trading and positional trading is, in day trading one can use the intraday movement only and the positions are closed on that day itself and also the intraday movement will be less when compared to short term movement but in positional trading the swing in short term would more than the intraday movement.
So automatically, the profit or loss potential is high in positional trading. Those who has high capital can trade the market positionally.

Momentum Trading
Momentum trading is done by traders who interested only in big moves in the downside or upside. They wait till they anticipate a big move. They don’t trade all the time. This trading also has its high risk. If the trader fails to anticipate the correct direction of the market, they he will end up in huge loss unless he cuts his positions immediately.
Select the trading style that suits well your personality. Happy trading

The Main stream media is always wrong on Market directions.

Have a look at what the media said about the Markets during 2008 January when most of the Stock Markets worldwide topped out. Everybody in the media is bullish on Stock Markets. Not even a single article in Media warned of a major top around the corner.
I could see at least some Technical Analysts could vaguely register their suspicion of a impending top in Stock Markets.On contrary everybody was bullish on Stock Markets at that time. Now check what the media has said during October 2008 crash. Now at this time, the whole world media was bearish on Stock Markets. The reverse happened here. Nobody warned of an impending bottom at that time. The Markets world over rallied from October 2008. This shows the mainstream media is always when it comes to report about the market.
The main reason for the media to get caught in the wrong side of the market is because of the technical position of the Market. When majority of the Market participants are bullish on any market, the main stream media is also bullish on the markets. But technically, when every body is bullish, market would have reached its full buying potential. So this lead to change of trend.
For Investing in Stocks, don’t follow what is media is telling you. Take your decision on your own.

Ways to get a Good Credit Card

Today, while I come across Internet, I visited an excellent site which gives us very vast information about the credit cards. Selecting a good credit card is a cumbersome process, with lot of false promises like instant approval, guaranteed approval etc. But you will get a complete solution for all your credit card needs here.

You can compare credit cards offer, by all Brands and Issuer without any hassle here. Once you visit here, you will get a thorough knowledge of how to use the credit card, more importantly how you can earn profit from your credit card.

If you are a student, then you an avail a student credit card from leading brands with huge cash back bonus and earn rewards with your student credit card. Even a cosigner is not required for a student credit card.

If you are an over spender and you wish to control your spending pattern then prepaid credit cards suits you. If you don’t have the record for your spending pattern then you can get a prepaid credit card for you. Using this kind of card, you can avoid unnecessary fees and interest burden.you can compare various card and their offers.

Once you compared and collected various details about the different credit cards and their offers form this site, you can avail the instant online approval from here and you will get the instant result with remark at once.

Then, What next log in and avail  secured credit card  and reap the benefits.

Digital Asset Management

Digital Asset Management is the use of technology which helps us to manage, protect and monetize our Digital Assets which we work with in our Business or profession as well as our personal life. Digital assets include the computer software, documents, emails, audio and video files and any other document which we stored in a computer. The Digital Asset Management applications are similar to that of the simple file management system. They will collect our digital assets, organize them in order, backing up them for future use and securing the digital assets to safe guard the interest of the author him self.

As the digital assets can be easily transacted online there is more chances of the piracy, hence efficient management is must to safeguard the rights and interests of the Original authors.

There are several types of Asset Management System. They are: They are Brand Asset Management System, Library Asset Management System, Product Asset Management System and Digital Supply Chain Management System. One of the most useful features of the asset management system is the ability to search for a particular file with minimum information. With the Asset Management System the author is freed from complex file naming because the system itself will assign Unique Identifier Code while file is ingested. Though DAM and ECM both are having more similarities they are having different advantages in different  files handlings, for example ECM specializes in official word documents and Excel  sheets,  scanned documents pictures emails and faxes where as DAM  is of greater use in managing rich media files such as photographs and audio video files.

Consequences of un uniform growth

Latest survey of a leading research institution published an article mentioning that Mumbai GDP will over take Thailand and Hong Kong by the   the year 2030. Really it is very good to hear that one metropolitan city’s GDP is  greater than a country( though the Countries are small).  but is worth to watch the negative side of the growth.
Now a days the most of the developments are focused in and around the cities only which reflects that all developments and infra structure planned for the cities only, Hence the population growth of Mumbai will raise about 74% because of the increase in labour opportunities. Because of the population explosion in the cities the government has to  spent more for the infra structure and the basic amenities for the people. Comparing with China  we are spending very less  for the infra structure.

For this only the government has to spend at least  112 Lakhs  Crores of rupees. If the Government is more focused about the metropolitan cities then the villages and the towns will be completely in the neglected state. Which will give a negative impact of our economy.

Hence    the growth of the country  will be sustain and lead in a positive trend if and only if the growth is in all aspects, irrespective of villages and cities. There should not be a discrimination  between the cities and the villages. The Government has to plan and focus more for the development of villages which will  result in the uniform growth of the country.In other words un uniform growth will only lead to the negative impact only.

What is future of Airline Industry?

The Airline Industry languished in 2008-2009 period because of economic downtrend in Countries all over the world. After June 2009, the Industry picked up because air travel across the world picked up and also by air cargo transport. The last two quarters, Airline companies saw some revival in their earnings. And every one thought the worst is over for the Airline Industry.

But Suddenly, the ashes from the volcanoes of Iceland brought the movement of Airlines to standstill in Europe. The flights passing through Europe from other Continents were also affected due to this. This has come as rubbing salt in the wounds for airline industry. Almost all the flights were cancelled in Europe which is the center point of Air traffic in the world.

With the Economic conditions are not improving and it is standstill in many countries, the revival of Airline industry is looking bleak in the near futures. Investors can avoid making investments in Airline stocks are the current level.

How good is Autamated trading system in Trading the Markets?

Automated trading system is a method that generates buy and sell signals based on mathematical calculation to trade the markets without any manual interpretation. The Mathematical calculation could be any formulae like RSI, ROC, Stochastic and etc.
Based on any single indicator or multiple indicators, the system generates buy and sell signals in Intraday, Short term and Long term. A trader by himself, without studying the technicals of the stock, can do buy and sell based on these signals. A manual study of these technicals is a cumbersome process. A trader no needs to experience this hardship to trade in the markets when he uses this Automated trading system.
Will this automated trading system really help a trader in buying and selling in the Markets? The Answer is simply no. Because, the first thing is, the market movements cannot be gauged in mathematical formulas. The market movements are random and it cannot come into the gambit of formulas.
Even if there is one, the discovery of that formula would have been already discounted by the Market. Unless you study the markets manually and understand the nuances by yourself, no one can make profit out of the markets.

Will The Bull Run Continue in Dow Jones?

The US Stock Index Dow Jones made an all time high of 14,279 on October 2007 and it was followed by a crash towards 6440 in march 2009. The crash to that level was followed by a rally towards 11000. Today it has made a high of 11038. Now the Million Dollar question is, will Dow move past 14000 in the near term.

Fundamentally speaking, though the financial situation is under control, it has not fully recovered from the recession. Though some indicators are improving, it really doesn’t reflect the growth we have seen 3 years back. The fundamentals have not improved as the stock prices. When everybody is bullish on Markets and Economy, a major top is likely to form. The same situation is prevailing now also. Every where we can see optimism. Nobody is talking of badtimes which has happened only one year back.

Technically speaking, the crash in 2008 is followed by rally in 2009 which is very quick when compared to the previous rallies. It means it is V shaped recovery. These type of vast price movements are always seen in Market bottoms and Market Tops. Since the present volatility is taking place in a Top area, the present technical situation is better construed as a top which indicates, the present rally is likely to lose steam in coming weeks. Going by the technicals, it indicates Dow is unlikely to cross 14000 for another 3 to 5 years.

Retail Investors should be carful at this time. They should stick to the law, ‘Buy low and Sell high’. Right now the we have to sell high. The impending top is around the corner. Be prepared for the event. Don’t get buoyed by the Euphoria in the Markets.

Terrorism and development

If you look at the countries which are affected by terrorism, it is evident that those countries are not developed yet. Terrorism is caused by religious belief and social disparity. In developed countries, we rarely see terrorism except because of religion.

In Europe, Spain and England are affected by religious terrorism. But none of the European Countries is affected by terrorism that is borne out of social disparity. This is because, the development in these Countries are homogenous and their society is not separated by casted and creed.

It is not the case in India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal or Afghanistan. The society in these countries are divided by caste, creed and religion. That is why we see Maoist struggle in India and Nepal and bomb blasts in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The main problem in these countries is the social disparity the communities. It is wide open in these countries.

That is why the internal clashes are happening frequently in these countries. If the disparity between the communities in this countries are reduced then automatically the social unrest would come to lower level. Instead of decimating the terrorist, if the Governments in these Countries decimate the social disparity, the menace of Terrorism would be rooted out completely. But no Government seems to move in this direction.

Digital Will

We are living in the Digital world, most of our business, financial and social communications and its developments are through the internet only. These digital contacts and communication are called us digital Assets or Virtual Assets. In other words, the emails, passwords electronic documents, websites and Blogs, other files either in Web or in Computer is called as Digital Assets.

Suppose the Virtual or the Digital asset holder dies unfortunately all the virtual assets could be frozen, since it could not be accessed by his successor or his legal heirs. Further if the successor wants to access the digital documents and he approaches the court he has to submit the succession certificate and many other legal identity and password which is a cumbersome process. Here I wish to remind you the password are subject to change more frequently. And if the legal heir approaches Google, Yahoo or any other service provider, how they can be judge the claim?

Here the Digital Will helps. Digital Will is an electronic document similar to that of a Physical Will in other words is a Will for a Digital Assets. Unlike a paper will Digital Will, will be stored on a safe and secured service and can be updated easily. Now there are more online service providers are available with competitive tariff structure. As this is a new concept they are now structuring a common procedure to less the pain of the legal heir.

Last but not the least word, there are so many legal issues are there in between Last Will and Digital Will. In England Last Will cannot be replaced by a Digital Will.

Which is the Personality that best suits trading?

Trading is a mind game. Having said that, each trading person has different mindset or personality. The most important factors that decide the personality is Emotion and Logic of the Brain. Some take decisions emotionally, and some take it logically, while some take it partly emotional and partly logical. Some have a very disciplined mind and some don’t have that mindset.

So, which one is the best personality to trade in Stock or Commodities Market? Once a trading Guru in USA, trained both ordinary civilians and some former US Marine Soldiers. He taught them to trade in stock markets using Technical Analysis and Fundamental analysis. He trained them in short term trading in Futures and Options. He taught the students where to book profit and where to cut loss of a trading positions. After some period of time, the Guru asked the students to trade on their own in real time with real money.

The results are some what astonishing. The former Marines performed well in the trading than the other students. The Guru analyzed the results and come to know that the former Marines are most disciplined and they followed the trading rules correctly with out fail. That is, because of the discipline they used to follow in military training.

This gives the conclusion that those who follow the trading discipline correctly without any emotion is likely to trade better in speculative Markets.

Are you the one who trades with discipline and logically?

Should Governments do business?

In India, when it got independence from the British, the Government was in the need of building Industries and Business to promote industrialization in the Country. At that time it didn’t have many Entrepreneurs and Industrialists. So Government took the initiatives and started many companies and Industries in all sectors. At that time, the Government is following a socialistic type of Government. So at that instead of encouraging new Entrepreneurs, Government itself has started all the Industries.

Those industries which were started by Government started running successfully and it contributed to the Industrial revolution of the Country. But as the Country progressed towards 1980 and 1990, there was a steady decline in their performance. The Public Sector Undertakings had started to behave like Government departments and that was why their performances declined during this period. But at the time, lot of private companies have been started and lot of new Entrepreneurs have grown in private sector of this Country.

This led to fair growth in the Industrial development of India. But the performances of many Government companies continued to decline. Some companies had gone sick at that time. And they became a burden for Government. After 1990 , the Government started disinvesting these Companies to private sector and they once again started performing well.

In USA, except finance and defense, every other industry is privatized. Because of this from 2008 many banks are failing in USA. But in India, non of the Banks failed.

I believe a Economy which is partially Market, and Partially socialistic, is good for any developing Country.

If anybody says your Job is secured, Don’t believe them !

It is rumored in the media that United Kingdom is under financial trouble. Morgan Stanley the well known Investment Banker from USA has written a note, that UK may be in trouble in coming years because of fiscal creditability. The current economic situation may force the Bank of England to raise interest rates.

The high interest rates would be bad for the British Economy. Like this many European countries are under financial pressure. Now, many say that the recession is over and hereafter we are going to see steady growth in world economy.

The fact is, it is not over, and it has just started. It started in US with series of Bank failures, followed by Dubai crisis and followed by Greece crisis. Now we are hearing about UK.

This really foretells that World economic recession is not over. It has just started. Just the beginning itself has created lot of job loss in developed and developing countries. If it continues for another 3 to 5 years, then the situation in coming years will be very worse than 2008.

If this happens, then nobody’s job is secured. So be prepared for that.

Market Riders

Hello Friends! Good day to you all and today I am going to share you all my idea about an online site which is about managing retirement portfolio using Market Riders. As a matter of fact I get into this online site through by means of an excellent online banner called as the etfs which had greatly directed me to this excellent online place. I am very much amazed to share you all my whole contemplation about the general things concerning with the ira investments. The diversity of investment opportunities available for investors is enormous and growing. Stocks, bonds, money market instruments, financial derivatives, alternative investment products and literally thousands of pooled investment vehicles.

Where do you start? The first question to ask is: what are your goals? In other words, what are you looking to achieve with your investment? You need to ask this question because of different investment products naturally have different characteristics, both in terms of performance and - more critically - in terms of risks in the process that can achieve this yield. Regarding the risks and returns on the different asset classes exhibit very different characteristics. Actions, for example, offer the highest returns, but as we shall see, they also carry a greater risk of loss. The Vanguard is a United States investment management consort that manages approximately $1 trillion in assets, based in Malvern, Pennsylvania. This is entirely different while compare with the Vanguard funds is exceptional among mutual-fund companies since it is owned by the assets themselves.

In this structure, apiece fund contributes an ordered turn of crowning towards mutual management, marketing, and organization services. Bonds cannot achieve as good performance, however they offer more stability than stocks (less variation in terms of performance). The money market yields are relatively low, but you never lose your initial investment. The last aspect of this puzzle is the deadline to which you want to get your performance. Indeed, not only the different asset classes exhibit different characteristics in terms of risk / return characteristics, but these change depending on how long you hold these assets - known as the period of detention. It is really appreciable to say that this excellent online site is nothing place for the asset allocation and also the mutual fund manager which is a great tool to beat the market.

Astrology and Stock Markets

I see that many websites and blogs have started to analyze and forecast Stock Market movements based on Astrology. Those persons who are behind these websites believe that they can forecast the market movements based on planetary movements.

I do learned astrology as part of improving my technical analysis skill. I came to know that the slow moving planets like Jupiter and Saturn influence most in analyzing once horoscope. And also the movement of this planets influence major events in the world. Other planets like Mercury, Venus, Mars which are fast moving planets and they influence least when compared to fast moving planets.

Stock Market movements are governed by demand and supply. The difference in the demand and supply makes the market to swing here and there continuously. The oscillating movement starts from intraday and it extends till centuries. Many analyst who are using astrology for forecasting, predict the intraday movements of the markets.

The fastest moving planet mercury takes four months to move from one Zodiac sign to another. I don’t know how a planet that takes four months to move from one Zodiac to another influence the intraday movement in the stock markets and I don’t know the methodology that is behind in predicting the stock market intraday movement.

As far as I am concerned, and also as person who know astrology and Technical analysis , I believe, nobody can predict the stock market movement using astrology.

A big bear market is looming in Global Markets

In the earlier post, in which we have written about Dubai and we have stated that this was the tip of the iceberg. Now we are hearing about Greece crisis. Greece is on the verge of collapse financially.

What is happening in Greece and will it end with Greece, or will it take further toll? The answer to this happen is, yes, the toll is likely to continue in coming months. Below I have given the technical reason for that.

Since 1929, there was not a big bear market in the world Markets. We have seen bear markets during the past twenty years, but, they were not as worst as the bear market in 1929. Various Technical studies say we are likely to see a big bear market of that magnitude in near future.

Any market would undergo a correction of larger degree every 100 years. Since 1929, we have not seen any major bear market like that. The 2000 dot com bubble burst and 2008 reality bubble burst are foretelling a big correction ahead.

Be prepared for it.

Trading is a Business

I have been a trader in stock Market for the past 10 years. Whenever I introduce myself as a stock market trader to any new people, they just blink at me and look at me somewhat skeptical at me. The reason is simple. If you are a trader in a speculative market, people look at you as gambler.

Gambling is different from speculation. Playing cards and betting on horses is a gamble. In this two, you are betting on a thing whose performance is not in your command. You are betting on a performance, not on any asset.

But in trading, you are putting money on an asset i.e. stock. The money you have invested in market is backed by the fundamentals of the company. More over you would have invested in that stock after analyzing the performance of the stock fundamentally and technically.

So, here the outcome is predictable. But in gambling the outcome is not predictable. So if the outcome is predictable, then how can we say it is gambling if we trade in stocks.

Every business is risky. The same risk is associated with trading in stocks also. Then why some body say it as gambling. So, stock trading is also a business as some other business.

Has the Gold prices topped out?

Ever since gold made a high around 1220 USD, it is declining from that level and recently it touched a low around 1050. Is this the high for another 5 years? or will it rally again above 1220 to make a new high in coming months? This is a million dollar question right now?

Almost all the fund managers and Analyst are bullish on gold and they are advising their clients to buy gold as investments. The consumption of Gold by China has exceeded the consumption of India. And it is being stated as one reason for the rise in Gold. And also it is been said by Market pundits that many central Banks would also start buying Gold for hedging purposes.

Irrespective of this, what does Technical Analysis say about future price of Gold. Technical Analysis would really predict the future course of the Gold Market. We have seen in many Markets, the top would be formed, when everybody is bullish. So once everybody has invested in Gold, surely the prices are going to decline. No market would continue to rally or decline forever. The markets need to consolidate while rallying or declining.

As the same case, the Gold market has to top out somewhere now or then. But going by the technical analysis, it says a top is already formed. So, in the future, Gold is unlikely to move above 1220 at least for another5 years. From here, it is going to decline further towards 800 USD in coming years.

Be careful when it comes to investing in Gold.

Why is Building a Brand Important?

 

The main aim of any small business or a corporate company is to build a brand. Building a brand is of prime importance than making money in the business. Of course, everybody in the business is here to take profit from the business. But before taking a profit one should build the brand for their products. Without building a brand, taking out the profits will surely sustain for short term.

If you want to be in the business for long term, first build the brand and get the confidence and loyalty of the customers. Coco Cola and Pepsi, when they entered the Indian Market, for the first five years they spent lot of money in building the brand image. They never broke even for the first five years. Think of a Company which invested lot of money in one company and they never get paid for the investments for the first five years.

It may look ridiculous initially, but they have built a brand image in every household in India. From urban population to rural population in India, everybody knows these two brands. Initially, they started with their core business of beverages. But after having built the brand name, they have started introducing other food products also.

They have slowly entered the snacks market in India. First they penetrated the urban market and they slowly penetrated rural market also. Now the traditional snacks in india is being replaced by these snacks. Such was their brand image, which could even change the way of life in one country.

What Coke and Pepsi did in India is brand building. They did for the first five years and now they are reaping the benefit of brand building. You too, if you are interested in starting business, build the brand first, and then make profit out of it.

Share this post :