Adoption of the Directive ISA, Was it a compromise? Part.I

Proposed by the European Commission in April 2009, Directive ISA on hedge funds (Alternative Investment Fund Managers) was passed overwhelmingly by Parliament 11 November 2010.

The draft Directive is that born of the political will to increase the transparency and regulation of the financial sector following the 2008 crisis.

In this general hedge funds have been pilloried particularly because of their opacity and systemic risks they might pose to financial markets and on whole sectors of the economy. Designated block, the funds "alternative" yet includes wide range of industries: venture capital, buyout capital, real estate funds and hedge funds, which had all the complicated drafting of common rules in these sectors. The main projects of the Directive focused on reducing systemic risk, on increasing the power of supervisory authorities on the improvement of investor protection on earnings and on the development of a European regulated alternative management.

Lengthy discussions on this Directive have been intense lobbying by supporters of the status quo countries (UK, Ireland ...) and those advocating stronger regulation of the financial system (France, Germany, ...). Michel Barnier, European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services, has spent all his diplomacy to bring together the viewpoints around a unifying text; But at what price?


The treatment of third countries was one of the blocking points of discussion in the Council of the European Union given its potential impact in London, second in from hedge funds, representing one trillion Euros of Assets under management at end 2008.

Time mentioned, a simple refusal of the marketing of hedge funds not registered in Europe would have a major impact on the industry with approximately 60% of hedge funds are domiciled in countries offshore cons less than 5% in Europe.

The art of negotiation among management companies Part.III

The added value of management companies is based largely on the expertise of their managers. Asset management requires special expertise in research, analysis and asset allocation. Stock selection is the differentiating factor between two managers operating on a single asset class. It is illusory to believe that the outsourcing of the negotiation will generate a visible economy for clients in fund performance. The cost of passing order on the European market is marginal (around 10 basis points) with a strong competitive pressure between the brokers and trading venues. However, the hidden cost of time spent by managers to negotiate orders is increasingly important. Markets in Financial Instruments Directive are of complex activity that is not the heart of business managers. Take away this activity is a real opportunity for management companies that have the critical mass to do so. Still it must choose the organization most in tune with the business strategy and needs. There is no optimal model but a more or less well adapted to the demands of each society.

The outsourcing of the table can be made either:

* Internally within a banking group Intermediation.
* Externally within a company without any financial relationship as proposed.
Whatever model is chosen, the expected services are identical and they cover at least:

* product coverage in line with the needs of the management company enabling it to cover all stocks in its portfolios. This coverage should be as broad as possible in terms of asset classes (stocks, bonds, fixed income, OTC derivatives,) or geographical areas (Europe, Asia,)

* An immediate liquidity and maximum with the connection to all major trading venues (regulated markets) so as to capture liquidity and find the best tariff for execution. Of course, each transaction is respecting the execution policy established by the management company.

* Cutting-edge technology to successfully carry out the rules laid down in the policy of best execution. Markets in Financial Instruments Directive require proof that orders are made in the best interests of customers with traceability and archiving every transaction regardless of the broker or the place of negotiation. These investments in systems of increasing complexity are not always accessible to small societies. Beyond these basic services, independent negotiating structures develop and grow their service offerings to add value for companies seeking to offload management activities become peripheral to the image:

The art of negotiation among management companies Part.II

The idea has made its way to separate business management and negotiation. This segregation has the advantage of refocusing the business of asset managers on their heart and professionalizes the art of negotiation with the function of internal or external specialists.

Overall, the large organizations are possible for the trading activity in corporate management. The organization currently in place in most societies, is to entrust the job of negotiating with managers Organization. This model is suitable for entrepreneurial companies with a reduced size. For the latter, the separation of functions does not make sense because the economies of scale will not be sufficient to cover investment and fixed costs of a dedicated table. Consideration is still to carry out in order to study the possibility of a negotiating table outsourced Organization if they want to outsource this activity.

The first two organizations are in place historically. They remain highly topical for asset managers wishing to retain this activity in-house growth despite its complexity. Indeed, outsourcing is not always the best answer. The best evidence for activity reporting, which is considered strategic for many players despite the maturity of the market for outsourcing by the Custodians. The price test is a key element since the investment for the implementation of a table is important, the order of 1 to 4 million Euros, with a recurring cost close to 2 million Euros year. At this price, it is not opportune to embark on such a structure for less than 20 billion Euros in assets under management. Given these numbers, why reflections flourish among asset managers who are considering very seriously the outsourcing of this business after having already outsourced recovery, back office, middle office and more sporadically reporting?

The art of negotiation among management companies Part.I

Management companies are now undergoing profound changes to align their organization with their environment more and more moving. This activity is at the heart of recent regulatory changes in the regulation of European financial system. After the global changes they all are impacting the heart of business asset managers who need to rethink the scope of their job to keep the heart of their market share. There is also a strategic repositioning of universal banks with the creation of joint ventures or transfers.

Faced with such a movement, strategic thinking have addressed the issue of operational efficiency and focusing on the heart of art. Markets in Financial Instruments Directive without being itself the cause put a spotlight on the art of negotiation in most facilities asset management.

Historically, the art of negotiation is provided by the portfolio managers. These are dedicated portfolio management (analysis and monitoring of values, investment strategies, risk monitoring and ratios, respect of management objectives) but also the passing of orders. This second activity is highly time-consuming, to the detriment of the former which constitutes the real value of the managers. The introduction of Markets in Financial Instruments Directive, with the proliferation of trading venues, but also implemented the policy of "best execution" (obligation to justify the application of best execution to the client), has added trading activity. In order to process orders in the best possible conditions, management companies must connect to the main trading venues so that they can offer their customers the most advantageous terms. This search for best execution (both in terms of price, safety, reliability and traceability) requires an overhaul of the processing chain of command.

The Effects of Adoption of Directive ISA Part.III

This framework has become particularly important for investors after the crisis. Indeed, many people who keep a bitter taste for excessively long periods of redemption given by some hedge funds, sometimes by breaking the terms of liquidity initially set. However, the entry of this new type of management strategies in a world hitherto occupied by standardized strategies and has known the risk of blurring the recognition gained by the UCITS label. Alternative strategies in place may pose risks not previously present in UCITS funds, including through use of complex derivatives. When using these instruments has been expanded with the publication in March 2007 of the Directive on eligible assets for UCITS III funds in the funds market Newcits was much narrower. For this reason, the introduction of funds from investors Newcits unskilled, which by definition cannot lead themselves a thorough due diligence on their investments, will likely require a level of information about the risks higher. The principles of Markets in Financial Instruments Directive should nevertheless partly to help distribute these products exclusively to European investors who understand.

The adoption of the Directive ISA has significant effects. By imposing new constraints on the personnel of hedge funds, it sets up very restrictive measures that will harm may be a first step in managing European alternative. But the whole directive, which provides greater transparency, hedge funds could boost the long term. Development funds for its Newcits represent a significant change in the landscape management. But the UCITS label must remain strong and its reputation and why the danger posed by the funds must be Newcits of attention. In fact behind the possibility of allowing individual investors in Europe to access a range of wider product, allowing them to diversify their investments, hides a real risk of cannibalization of the label. However, the readability of UCITS is a major asset for marketing to international investors. It is likely that the industry will look closely at this intrusion of hedge funds that can really tarnish the image of the dearly bought by European management.

The Effects of Adoption of Directive ISA Part.II

The novelty is real alternative for players, but already partially implemented by many of the banks after 2008 under pressure from governments. Part 3 on the CRD remuneration’s extension is to hedge funds relatively quick. A substantial increase in the fixed part is to provide for categories of personnel involved in hedge funds, like what the investment banks have made since 2009 in anticipation of regulatory restrictions bonuses.

In the market for asset management, anticipation of the adoption of the directive has had the effect of fostering the development of a new type of funds, qualified by the industry "Newcits. These funds are in place alternative management strategies usually developed by hedge funds in the regulatory framework.

The combination of an uncertain legal environment and the ability to raise funds from a new segment of investors, have decided the alternative managers to develop their strategy through UCITS vehicles. The entry into force of the UCITS IV Directive in July 2011, and the possibility for UCITS to receive a European passport for marketing in the EU could also weigh in the choice. This enthusiasm is reflected in the numbers: between September 2008 and May 2010 the number of funds Newcits almost doubled, from 270 to 520 funds and assets under administration from 45 to nearly 90 billion Euros.

Symbolizing the development of this type of fund, the index "Ucits HFX Index" to track the overall performance of these funds, was launched in February 2010. In view of investors, this new category of funds has some attractive compared to traditional hedge funds: diversification, leverage, valuation and liquidity are strictly supervised.

The Effects of Adoption of Directive ISA Part.I

Recently adopted by the European Parliament, the directive will come into force ISA in January 2011. All decisions taken under the ISA is a turning point for the industry of hedge funds because of restrictions imposed.


The national authorities of EU countries have a period of two years to transcribe those rules in their legislation, particularly on the issue of the European passport. However there is already fairly immediate impact in some areas. This is particularly the case for compensation in hedge funds and development of a new market, the UCITS alternative points on which we intend to return.


The compensation of hedge funds is generally of the type "2 / 20," that is to say 2% management fee and 20% of the outperformance retained by the manager. In terms of compensation, important work had already been conducted during the update of the directive regulating the implementation of Basel II (CRD 3 - Capital Requirements Directive - adopted by the European Parliament in July 2010). Its conclusions were largely contained in the Directive ISA. The main change is to align the distribution of salaries on the level of risk and lifecycle funds managed, and this with special attention on the variable. It found that 40% to 60% (depending on its size) of the bonus will be deferred over a period of 3 to 5 years and at least 50% should be distributed in shares themselves kept for a minimum period. Thus, for a variable compensation of € 100 K, a maximum of € 30k will be paid in cash the first year. Moreover, in case of negative performance of the fund, the amounts paid by the fund to employees may be partially recovered through mechanisms of penalty. The directive was not set up a ratio between the fixed and variable, merely specify that the two must be balanced, and fixed high enough to allow the non-payment of a variable, which guarantee payment is now banned. Because of work already conducted in CRD 3, Directive already provides a great level of detail through an appendix describing the new remuneration arrangements.

Philanthropy and Private Banking Part.III

The theme of philanthropy touches on sincerely seized beliefs of the client. It allows staff to initiate a conversation on an emotional dimension as well as financial. This dialogue can add to the development of an association of trust between a client who is not simply a portfolio of assets, and a banker who does most of the costume vendor products with high margins. This dialogue allows the bank to intensify its knowledge of clientele, and loyalty by contributing a long term relationship on sustainable projects.

Another line of work to dig for private banks: the networking of donors. Philanthropists, especially beginners, express the need to meet other people having launched in the adventure to help and share their experiences. From the perspective of the bank, linking its customer’s philanthropists represents an opportunity to expand its network of prospects. In Europe Wealth Management team understands this challenge.

For the client, a private bank that support its philanthropic investment it would provide a single window for management of its assets, both financial and philanthropic. Several studies have identified the reasons why wealthy people to contact their banks to invest in private philanthropic topics:
1. Tax benefits,
2. Need advice on clearing the jungle of philanthropic organizations,
3. Want to measure and control effectively grants.
Structuring, in the engineering heritage, a philanthropic offer to optimize tax and guide the client through the maze of legal philanthropy takes on its meaning.

Today, private banks gaining momentum on the subject of philanthropy, sensing the potential of loyalty and competitive differentiation behind. But they will fail to fully play this role once they are deemed competent on the subject by their customers. This involves the guidance of management consultants to private customer approach in its personal dimension and not just financial, and reorganizing the supply of products and philanthropic services taking into account the tax aspects, legal and emotional donation.

Philanthropy and Private Banking Part.II

For older donors, donating was good in itself, while for the new, the gift must be effective. The typical modern philanthropist made his fortune quickly, has an entrepreneurial mindset and will firstly give back to society part of what he has won and the other involved in the projects it supports. His archetype is Bill Gates, who created the foundation "Bill and Melinda Gates before his fortieth birthday and whose endowment now stands at over 35 billion dollars. There is currently strong demand from high net worth individuals to invest in philanthropy, both in Anglo-Saxon (which is an old trend) than in European countries (which is newer).

The increasing needs of the poor at local level in developed countries and at global level in some countries remained on the margins of globalization, also explains the renewed media attention to philanthropy.

Philanthropy is a segment whose financing requirements are increasing and in which many actors are willing to commit themselves, wealthy individuals as firms. The challenge in this sector lies in its ability to structure itself to meet the demand (need help finance the public interest) and supply (philanthropists want to give).

This need for structure has been highlighted by a study of Scorpio Partnership in 2007 showing that 90% of European philanthropists expressed the need to be advised on their philanthropic investments. They are looking for sound advice enabling them to make appropriate choices. The study also reveals that most of these philanthropists are willing to pay to dispose of such boards, and opens a huge market for private banks.

By their knowledge of financial products they have, and they affect the public, private banks can take part in the expansion of philanthropy by offering:

* Product socially responsible investment.
* Investments in philanthropic or charitable funds.
* Advice to clients wishing to establish a foundation.

Cont.

Philanthropy and Private Banking Part.I

The world of private banking wake of the financial crisis with a huge challenge: regaining the trust of customers. Meanwhile, global inequality and the needs of the poorest in our societies have never been as visible as the last two years.

Both post-crisis interpretations, seemingly dissimilar, carry within them the basics of the most important challenges of the private bank for the next decade: the development and structuring of philanthropic services.

Why Philanthropy, Is it more relevant today than yesterday? How philanthropy relates to private banks? Why these two sectors have now crossed the issues?

Philanthropy covers the entire process of giving the private sector (companies and individuals) in money, time, information, goods, services, and influences votes spent on the welfare of mankind and the community (general interest) .

To read the business press, philanthropy has never been so placed under the spotlight since the crisis, and for three reasons. The first is the increasing shift of funding the public interest between the public and the private sector. For last few years, various European nations, given the enormity of their deficits, have realized they no longer afford to fund only the national and international needs in the social and cultural rights. These states have therefore developed mechanisms favorable tax incentives for individuals and businesses to engage in philanthropy to finance topics of general interest. The subsequent cause for this rising importance in philanthropy is the change in donor behavior, firms and individuals.

Cont.

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Issues in Online distribution channel for home loans Part.III

A benchmark conducted by a team with 40 European banks shows a great diversity of practices in terms of distribution of mortgage lending by the web channel. Found mostly sites of contact and very few institutions offering the user advanced tools for construction financing plan with pre-approval online. France and US stands out however as the countries with an average of more advanced practices, with two banks offering their customers or prospective users the opportunity to mount their application for funding from home, but with photocopies of supporting documents, so submission e mandatory. So even if the actors historically oriented web services offer the most successful online, no one can apply for funding complete 100% electronically. The flexibility to expand its online offering is important and is still a good differentiators.


Developments in the web channel for home loans suggests, we ultimately opportunities for reconfiguration of the industry and a place for new players. Why not imagine a model of market-place, full service construction financing plan and dematerialization, allowing the user to file a single folder (90% of the data and documents necessary for the formation of a funding application is identical from one institution to another)? This market-place could be facilitated by an intermediary, broker or bank. For a subscription system, banks are accessing the virtual platform and choose the files according to their risk profile to ultimately send their best offer on the reverse auction model. Thinking with enough foresight will offer interesting prospects for banks, especially on aspects of pooling resources or site management for third parties.

Clearly, the outsourcing of customer relationship for housing loans, for what it has advantages for the bank and its customer focus the attention of sales management in the periods ahead, encouraged by the advent of canals Low cost. With this major issue related and related to the sale of real estate loans: Do not lose the client relationship, the product of conquest remains a unique tool for banking services in the retail catalog.

Issues in Online distribution channel for home loans Part.II

Its conquest remains a challenge because it disrupts people's attitudes. The relative complexity of mortgage lending has ruled for a time of digital distribution. Banks still mostly stick to a limited use of the web channel as a simple contact tool prospect, with some simulation tools and online advice. Involved, many documents to provide, the importance of the intermediation of an adviser, the number of players entering the game (underwriters, notaries, ...), the risks of fraud, loss of opportunity for contact client and therefore cross-selling.

The lifting of legal constraints: a condition indispensable not for customer relationship management 100% remote

The law on the protection of the borrower and governing the loan offer and the terms for conclusion of the contract, still imposes a relationship postcard (postmarked authentic) between the client and the bank to the steps of sending the offer to the customer and acceptance by the latter. But it lacks little for a relationship 100% distance and electronic submission is possible until the funding request by the client.

Indeed, while the tools necessary to assemble the financing plan online (sophisticated simulators, engine stand for regulated loans, scoring tools for pre-agreement ...) are now available online, building a complete application for funding still faces barriers to taking legal recognition of electronic documents, and simply the fact that they are still uncommon. But dematerialization at source is a proof of evolution programmed, evidenced by the development of bills or bank statements electronic or upcoming launch of the NIEC (National Identity Card Electronics). Devices associated with electronic safes, these documents dematerialized at the source will forward copies of the disappearance, the latter often requiring agency passages, many manipulations and visual controls, with a controlled level of risk months.
Finally, we can assume that the law limiting Scrivener to date the complete dematerialization chain soften granting the benefit of such electronic signature, recognized for over ten years as having the same value as a handwritten signature.

Issues in Online distribution channel for home loans Part.I

How to make a prospect or client to be autonomous in the construction of its real estate financing plan? Or even how the economy of many supporting documents? These are a few issues of the dematerialization of the customer relationship applied to the distribution of credits by the web channel habitats.

The challenge worth noting, as the benefits are numerous web channel, for both the bank and the customer:

    * Reduce distribution costs by shifting by the user part of the inquiry process 
    * Limiting the use of physical network infrastructure
    * Provide faster response times, major differentiating the market

The benefits are plentiful, and are now well identified.

What are the issues and therefore the remaining barriers to be overcome to capture the opportunity that is developing the web channel for the distribution of housing finance products?

Online brokerage, through everyday banking and savings, operating the web channel for the distribution of financial products has greatly expanded. After the democratization of the device for consumer loans, it is logical to think that home loans will naturally follow the trend.

And since 42% of bank customers will use banking services online by 2013.  Further stress that in 2009, 17.9% of those who are under 30 years had a housing loan, cons about 9% in 1999. Familiar and major users of new Internet solutions, the 18-30 age segments are mature, ready for distribution of product through the web.
Banks must be careful and think about the development of this channel for the distribution of mortgages, especially since it is a technological showcase for a ticket and a relatively modest technology is now well controlled in nationalized banks. 

Cont.

Financing your business, Advice from a banker Part.III

Of course, in the professionalism comes experience, knowledge of an industry, a successful career ... The CV is very important.
Bringing complementary skills (technical and commercial, for example) Is of course a plus, as long as you get to know each members.


Work on your project, surround yourself with expert advice, know your industry, customer needs, competition ... Anyway, approach your project with professionalism and clarity: do not believe that your enthusiasm will sweep away all obstacles, do not underestimate the take time for a commercial launch (convince first customers, establish a sales network ...) and a working capital plan accordingly. It is better to delay a project to launch a project badly put together ...

If you can, test your project on a small scale before you start making significant investments. Be ambitious but humble ... Know your skills and shortcomings, others (partners, for example) may be able to fill ... ultimately, the market is always right.



Banks do not invest, they lend. ... To be repaid. It is clear that they prefer to lend to sectors where there is visibility: Sectors in the launch phase, where many companies appear mushroom that will not necessarily be the stage of maturity, are more cautious investors in capital. Banks lend more readily to areas under development or maturity, when the continuity of actors is more stabilized.

Financing your business, Advice from a banker Part.II

- What (s) benefit (s) to go through a bank rather than a business angel or venture capital? What are the main differences?
We must differentiate
- Venture capitalists, who are willing to take a significant risk, financially equivalent to the creator and without warranty, in exchange for a higher expected return, usually at a horizon of 5 years.
Their involvement provides funding needs difficult to finance by banks (research and development, for example), but reduces the profitability of the creator who shares the capital gain by his activity.

- The bank lenders, who accept lower profitability (margin on credit) in return for lower risk that reduced by guarantees.
The use of bank lenders allows you to play the leverage and improve the profitability of capital (return on capital exceeds cost of credit), but a start-up and very innovative can only marginally be financed with banks will have recourse to capital investors.


- How is evaluating a project started by a bank? What is the importance of training courses or the contractor in this assessment? Loan Entrepreneurship

ultimately, the decision to finance a business is about trust: the banker said: "I have confidence in the ability of that person to go through with his plan, I feel good." For the creator, inspiring trust is to first show his professionalism, he knows the area where it will start, he thought his project and was given the resources, including human and financial, to succeed, etc...

Financing your business, Advice from a banker Part.I

Jacques Dumartin, professional customer adviser in a large national bank has agreed to answer questions to explain the solutions offered by banks to support the launch of companies and provides advice to maximize his chances.


The creation of a company share a first idea, a desire of the designer who will have to formalize its project to study the market, competition, quantify the necessary investment (including working capital needs development), building a business plan, evaluate its ability to financial support, to finally see a need for external financing. For these steps prior to the presentation of a banking record, the creator may be assisted by the ICC, accountants, support networks for entrepreneurship ...

Once the project led to the financial plan (financial plan, forecast, plan cash), still have to find bank financing.
These can take various forms: medium-long term credit for financing investments, short-term loans for the period Customer (B to B, factoring is a solution to be studied). The SLA can sometimes use to finance the needs intangible costs (not to mention the launching of working capital) and to facilitate the credit agreement ...

loan business creation Once the project is considered valid, have good chances of success, which is the essential first step, comes the question "what happens if things do not go as contractor and the bank provide? . That's where the issue of guarantees.
The first guarantees obvious, is the guarantees on property financed: pledge of goodwill, equipment ...

These properties undergoing a discount during a possible cessation of activity, additional safeguards are necessary for the bank can expect to recoup the capital lent: OSEO counter-example.
The deposit, at least in part, the entrepreneur is one of those additional guarantees and is a sign of motivation (50% maximum capital if counter-SAH).

Market forces Part.III

Also note that different strategies are possible. If the market is vibrant, there will be a scalper, who will try to buy and sell at 51 to 52 immediately, therefore, be presenting as much as possible on the bid / ask spreads. The scalp is an advocate of short-term, which provides liquidity to the market: this is very useful speculator. We also find longer-term investors, who hold a position and come forth once their target price achieved. Management of losing positions is also very important how each participant will he set his stop loss, that is to say, the maximum loss that agrees to bear. Each trader, according to his temperament, and its market position, establish its own strategy. Some will hold out long large positions, others will have their paper that burns your fingers and come out very soon as a small gain is recorded. The game is an excellent education, to understand how the market works, and learn to negotiate and manage its positions.
To make the game as realistic as possible, we give a number to each participant, so note in front of which is treated. In this way, we can make a real market clearing, and fire at the end the gain or loss each. Ultimate refinement, each point is worth 10 cents (or 1 Euro), and trade for real.
If you dine one evening toward the stock market, and there in the restaurant 10 excited in a circle, screaming: I pay for 10 or 52: I have 10 to 53, you now know what its acts: the Market!

Market forces Part.II

Now look what happens to the market opening, where one side to the top 49 to 51. Each participant takes its trading book, where he notes the quantities bought and sold, and courses. If two participants are large buyers, this means that for each market is 55, as they scored 10 of their paper and if it's reality, the market is actually 60. Unless there is immediately a big seller, who then entered a small figure, and is ready to bring down the market. If the seller is an observer, he can let up the market with buyers and sell them on what he considers to be the high point. Within seconds, the market can be very animated, change direction, experience significant estimated that each is of the opinion of others, etc. ... 10 people, 10 figures on pieces of paper, and it's like in Chicago, on the floor of the CME.
Put some rules to govern the listing. For example, processing a maximum of 10 contracts by negotiation set a maximum open position of 100 contracts, purchase or sale. It is also fun to publish a regular figure, as if that came out was 2:30 p.m. ET in the U.S. CPI or the trade balance. To do this, simply draw a paper hat and announce the number.

 Almost instantaneously, the market will adjust to the new value: If 10 was published, the market must rate 55; if it's 3, it is 47, according to the same principle. Once the information is public, it is immediately incorporated into lesson: it is the principle of market efficiency.

Market forces Part.I

For the uninitiated, the financial market often resembles a black box which we do not understand much, and especially what makes it go up or down. Hence the temptation erroneous to equate to a casino, which is statistically a negative sum game since the state, takes on each win. And yet it is simple to create a game market, where it likes to quote a fictitious contract for, while playing, better understanding how the market works, evaluate the strategies used, and feel the stress of holding a position.

I also used this game as educational courses in finance schools. In this context, the challenge is to create a market rather lively, with many transactions. The wise course students have a little more trouble letting go as traders in the evening, somewhat watered it is true.
How to play? Very simple! Take 10 people, each note on a paper a number between 0 and 10, without showing it to others. We put all the papers in a hat, we form a circle to recreate a floor trading, and we score the sum of 10 numbers. It sounds stupid, but I assure you playing for hours with it, in an atmosphere worthy of the notional floor in the heyday.
Some statistical explanations:  If everyone wrote a number between 0 and 10, the mathematical expectation of the sum is 50, an outside observer. But each participant in his own opinion on the market: if I wrote the number 10, the market is for me 55: my 10 plus the expected value of the remaining 9 digits or 45. I'm ready to buy up to 55. Conversely, for those who put 0, its estimated market value is 45, so he agreed to sell up to 45.

Sell ​​in May and go away

 

I am a big fan of stock sayings, and Sell in May and go away talk to me particularly. I started working on the Exchange since May 1990, and I would have been better advised to sell or to abstain rather than buying at all is to celebrate my arrival. The period May to October was not the most flamboyant for shareholders.
According to this dictum, the semester from May to October is unfavorable, in contrast to the period from November to April. For a follower of the theory of efficient markets, the effect of seasons on the Bourse smile. Who thinks about behavioral finance, the question deserves to be dug.
A study by the U.S. broker SSB gives inconclusive results, economic growth over the period is a more important factor.
By cons, research conducted by Dutch researchers published in 2001 by the Social Science Research Network states that 36 of the 37 cases studied, the period from May to October has been worse than the other, and without an explanatory factor is set identified.
What prognosis for 2011? We just finished a semester beaming back interest rates, oil remains very expensive, geopolitics is hardly serene, and the effect may not have been very sensitive in the last 2 years. If we find good reasons to sell, no need to rack their brains for a long time. We will certainly have a chance to talk

China Shakes The World

I recently read a book recently published by James Kyng, former Financial Times correspondent in China, under the title "China Shakes the World, The Rise of a hungry nation."
Some ideas to be learned from this fascinating book:
- The Chinese labor force increases by 25 million people each year who must find work. This is without counting the internal population movements, with the influx from the countryside to the cities. The strong long-term growth of the economy is a vital necessity. To simplify, China said the jobs to us, the West said to us profits.
- The vastness of the Chinese domestic market is a dream, not only the West; the Chinese as well. In fact, the Chinese domestic competition in all segments of consumer products is intense, especially since the producers are on equal terms. The consequence is that the margins are very low, and profits are sought for export.
- At the cultural level, the numbers of very great importance. The official slogans are an illustration. This is a consequence of the permanent situation of overpopulation, and the difficulty to feed every mouth. China is a country that really hungry, in every sense of the word. We can better understand the speed with which China has integrated science and technology.

For the future, let us ask some questions about the future role of China in the world of finance. With 1.2 trillion dollars in foreign reserves, increasing rapidly, and a large domestic savings, the raw material does not fail! For now, the asset allocation is not optimal. But it is likely that major Chinese banks will quickly integrate the tools of modern finance. With the size of their balance sheets, they will become formidable competitors. Moreover, the government plans to create an investment agency, with $ 200 billion to begin with, history of investing a portion of foreign exchange reserves of more optimally, a little on the model of Singapore's Temasek. This will be an institutional investor interest. The time is not far distant when China initiated the takeover bid will win over European and U.S. exchanges.

Are The Banks Illiquid?

To understand the current financial crisis, it is good to keep in mind the following concepts:
- The real business of a bank is to make the transformation: to transform short-term resources into long-term jobs. By definition, a bank is illiquid. The maturity of its assets is always longer than its liabilities, that resources are deposits of customers or funds borrowed from the market. Transform the asset into a negotiable instrument in any market changes nothing; it merely shifts the problem.
A bank and the banking system generally work only on trust: if the bank cannot find resources on the market, or if depositors fearing for their money, liquidity risk materialize. You can create all the regulations, regulations, national supervisory bodies and international as you want, it makes no difference.
And on this point, the structure of bank capital is of little influence.
On 29 September, Dexia and Natixis lost over 25% in stock. DEXIA is owned by Belgian public authorities and the CDC, NATIXIS is not owned banks, mutual insurance group, and Caisses d'Epargne, in the bosom of the CDC still. These are no short-term shareholders or speculators eager to immediate profits.

Investment Safety Net

Where is the safety net in the financial system? In fact, every bank has, more or less formal, more or less explicit. A bank is not actually a business like any commercial company: its transformation function of financial flows on the one hand, the leverage of its balance sheet on the other hand, make a bank failure involves systemic risk significant. The existence of the safety net is in itself an element of risk, since it can reduce the sense of risk among investors as among bank customers. And when risk aversion raises abruptly loud reaffirmation of the existence of safety net policies and the monetary authorities do not help to restore confidence. This question is not new: Alan Greenspan had raised the subject in May 2001.
Currently, the market requires less risk, which is materialized by the requirement for reduction of bank leverage: decrease in assets, so credit crunch, increasing equity, so severe dilution of existing shareholders, and the final stage being nationalized with an elimination of shareholders earlier.
Strengthen regulation is a double edged up capital ratios exacerbates the credit crunch. We can see the confusion that exists between minimum standards and the assessment in the market. The crisis is not over, and the political and monetary authorities are preparing a few more to rescue financial institutions, illiquid and / or insolvent.

Stocks and Bonds Together

There is no surprising that the rising stock market has since been held in conjunction with the rise of the bonds, the yield of government bonds to 10 years back from 4% to 3.50%.
In my opinion, the phenomenon is rather healthy. It is true that in times of intense crisis, we see the fall of actions coincide with the rise of the bonds, in a movement of flight to quality. This divergence implies then a very strong rise in the risk premium on equities.
In an assessment of market shares made by discounting future cash flows, the relevant discount rate is the rate "risk free" government bonds plus the risk premium on the market. This means that the increase of joint stocks and bonds is reflected, side actions, lower the discount rate as a result of lower risk-free rate. Looking back a little, we know that rising stock between 1995 and 1999 could be largely explained by lower bond yields during this period.
In recent months, there was again a decline in risk premium, which can be read for example in the course of corporate CDS and in reducing the implied volatilities of options and that improved earnings expectations.
Decrease the risk free rate, reducing the risk premium, higher earnings forecasts: These three elements combine to explain the current rally in equities.
Whether it goes well in the optimism is that another story.

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