Fitch could degrade China because of the banking sector

While the European Union and the United States is buffeted by a debt crisis without precedent, Thursday, rating agency Fitch said it may lower the sovereign rating of China in the next two years. Reasons: the heavy debt the Chinese banking sector, the latter having provided massive loans in recent months.

In an interview with Reuters, Andrew Colquhoun, head of Asia Pacific ratings at Fitch, has considered possible a downgrade in China from 12 to 24 months. "We anticipate a material deterioration in the quality of bank assets. If the problems of the sector are changing as we anticipate, or even worse, the next 12 to 24 months, this would lead us to lower the note," he warned.

Last April, already, Fitch lowered its rating outlook on China's "stable" to "negative", citing concerns that date on the financial stability of the country following the decision in Beijing to increase bank credit to maintain China's economic growth. Currently, Fitch assigns the note to China 'AA-', corresponding to the fourth highest level of its scale, position equivalent to that of Italy and a notch below that of Spain.

In early July, the rating agency Moody's had indicated that for its public debt to China stood at 36% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), taking into account the share of the debts of local governments for which Beijing assume direct responsibility. A few days earlier, the National Audit Office had indicated that the debts of the provinces, municipalities and districts Chinese rose late 2010 to 27% of Chinese GDP, representing a total of 1.163 trillion Euros.

The same office had, however, insisted that 63% of this debt would be repaid through revenue budget.

Now where the rub is; that they have borrowed huge amounts from the global financial crisis, via means of ad hoc structures called "platforms financing" or PFL.
Objective: To finance infrastructure and housing projects not always profitable.

But according to the National Audit Office; the "ability to pay is low and faces potential risks in certain areas and certain industries." Indeed, in a snowball effect, some local governments had to make new loans ... to repay the debts already contracted, also heavily dependent on land sales to meet their deadlines.

According to the auditors of governments of China, 108.3 billion yuan (11.8 billion) of loans were made or used fraudulently, the money ends up in banks or stock markets real estate.

Indeed, point out that as a guarantee, the PFL received capital that comes from land assets transferred by the community investment fund and ... fraud, bank lending in the short term what notionally provide a PFL time he gets a larger credit. All of which leads ultimately to the National Audit Office that the platforms of local funding must be "cleaned and regulated."

A bit worried, Moody's said that Chinese banks have lent billions of 8500 yuan (905 billion) out of 10'700 billion yuan (1.163 trillion euros) to local governments ... a situation that causes a high risk exposure.

"The debts existed before the global financial crisis, but they quickly accumulated in the last two years while investment by local governments has been used as a key tool" to boost the economy, adds Moody's.

Copper prices on rise!!!

The price of copper rose on Wednesday at 9304 dollars a tonne, its highest level since early August.Prices remain supported by strong concerns over the production of Chile. The country's largest exporter worldwide, is greatly affected recently by strikes in the mining sector.

Analysts at MF Global, official figures this week reported a fall of 18% of Chile's copper supply in July.A context that would fuel tensions in the market, while new social movements may emerge in the giant Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which represents 4% of world production of copper.

Finally, early Friday afternoon, a tonne of copper for delivery in three months traded at the LME 9025 dollars, 9006 dollars per tonne against the previous Friday.

Oil prices weighed down by Employment in US

The price of oil fell sharply Friday in New York, weighed down by strong employment figures sobering.
Stopping a part of the oil production in the Gulf of Mexico will not even possible to change that. A barrel of light sweet crude for October delivery has thus concluded the day at 86.45 dollars on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), down 2.48 dollars compared to the previous day. The course was even on the verge of reaching the threshold of 85 dollars, then limit its losses by closing.

You will note in passing that the current price fluctuations are far to affect the price of gasoline. Meanwhile in London, the Intercontinental Exchange, a barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery closed at 112.33 dollars, dropping 1.96 dollars.

The courses were largely impacted by the monthly report on employment. However, while a positive balance of recruitment had been found for ten consecutive months and in contrast to analysts' projections, the American economy has not created any jobs in August. However, some analysts had estimated in early trading as climatic conditions in the Gulf of Mexico could reverse the trend, Tropical Storm Lee threatened oil installations producing a quarter of U.S. crude.

However, while almost 48% of oil production in the area was arrested, corresponding to 666,321 barrels per day, and 33% of offshore gas extraction, prices could rise. Another disturbing fact: according to forecasts from Barclays Capital, gasoline consumption in the United States fell by 4.1% in annual slippery during the summer period, however, conducive to the mobility of Americans.

Fight Against Money Laundering -3

The directive strengthens the other hand the obligation to share information. The Financial Security Act of 2001 introduced the need for coordination among banking groups the fight against money laundering. This involves organizing the different entities of the group exchange of information necessary for monitoring the customer on a consolidated basis. With the third directive, banks will now have the opportunity to share information between groups and banking networks, institutions and even between non-group members, since they are subject to equivalent obligations.

Beyond measures of intra and intergroup, banks must comply with in 2008 a major European regulations, European harmonization of retail payments (SEPA - Single European Payment Area [6]). "Europeanization" of cash flows increases the need for more secure against the practices of money laundering or terrorist financing. In addition to a larger volume, banks will soon face severe regulatory constraints on compliance, security and traceability of financial flows.

The banks have already set up systems for monitoring and tracking capabilities including data collection (to detect and select unusual or suspicious transactions), but also reporting and archiving of tests conducted. Examination of the flow from the source of transactions, to verify the source of funds, is based on two main areas:

* Filtering: detecting the presence or absence in the black lists published by national and supranational regulation;
* And behavioral analysis: analysis of accounts and transactions in connection with the risk profiles to detect unusual transactions and suspicious behavior.

However, with the increasing internationalization of flows and extensive monitoring obligations to the beneficial owner of the transaction, major efforts are still needed to harmonize procedures for risk prevention (warning indicators adapted from the Know Your Customer rules, ... ) internationally. According to a KPMG study [7], although the expenses of banks in combating money laundering and terrorist financing have increased on average by 58% over the past three years, only 24% of international banks have at the moment of an effective system for monitoring transactions and accounts of the same customer across different countries ...

In conclusion, the successful implementation of the Directive is closely linked to be the ability of banks to develop a coordinated approach and a risk, for realism and efficiency.

Fight Against Money Laundering -2

The scope of due diligence, previously limited to the financial sector now includes notaries, lawyers, accountants, auditors, tax advisers, estate agents, casinos, service companies and trusts, and insurance intermediaries . Monitoring the client is also extended to (s) recipient (s) number (s) [5] of the transaction: this additional requirement of identification, which seems difficult to implement, more complex work of banks.


The duty of care is now adjusted according to the risk that the client is. Each institution will define the level and nature of audit to be implemented towards the customer (identification and verification of identity on the basis of documentary evidence, gathering information on the purpose and nature of the relationship of business, followed by the business relationship ...) depending on the nature of its clientele, operation and services. The approach could also requires banks to be able to justify the adjustment of the audit.


To avoid duplication of identification procedures, the third directive sets up the principle of mutual recognition and acceptance of measurement results to identify clients: it allows the presentation of clients whose identification measures were carried out by banks and financial institutions located in the European Union. The ultimate responsibility then rests on the establishment to which the customer is introduced, that is to say the one who resorts to colleagues.


Banks have gradually established since the 1990s services fight against money laundering. They now emphasize the need for a group.

The first challenge for financial institutions is to continuously develop the culture of anti-money laundering with the group, and the training of employees by raising awareness (transmission of procedures and corresponding obligations, formation of the entire profession with warning indicators, lead to detect suspected cases ...). FBF offers on this since 2003, with the participation of Tracfin, a training evolution available to the entire profession, and consists of an awareness module and several modules specialized on specific issues.