Saudi Arabia And The Present Oil Crisis

The impact of the current situation in Libya on oil prices offer some advantages to some of the OPEC countries. While oil prices soaring, driven in particular by fears of shortages, Saudi Arabia is trying to pull out of the game by offering his "help". Finally, Saudi Arabia is trying to utilize this opportunity to inflate its oil wealth to greater extent.

Last Sunday, the Saudi oil minister has said in his country, as a leading member of OPEC, Saudi Arabia is ready to meet any additional supply to full fill the international demand. More over Minister Al al Nuaimi told they have enough stock as reserve for the supply since the raise in demand of Asian countries are more. Moreover he said their offer would impact heavy on the oil markets. Saudi Arabia the world's biggest exporter had already lowered its production. It was 8.29 million barrels per day in March against 9.1 million barrels per day in February.

Most of the petroleum user countries urged the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries to raise its production targets in an attempt to stop the current surge in oil prices. Here I wish to point out one thing, in late February, Tehran has called on member countries of OPEC, and in particular Saudi Arabia not to  unilaterally raise their crude production. Iranian Oil Minister Massoud Mir Kazemi, emphasized the OPEC members not to take hasty unilateral decisions in case of any shortage in Oil. And their argument is current production suffices to fill the gaps created by the Libyan internal crisis.

Gold hits another record

The gold price has again hit a record on Friday, getting closer every day just over a threshold of 1,480 dollars an ounce.

Main factors leading to this historical rise were; the worrying situation of some of the member countries of the European Union beset by serious difficulties with their internal debt and sustained rise in inflation.

The price of an ounce of gold has risen to its latest peak on Friday in the international market, by breaking the previous Monday record.

According to the Analysts the investors in Greece, Portugal remained concerned over the threat of default, a situation that encourages them to buy precious metals, which are the safe-haven assets.

 The debt restructuring in Greek, Ireland also raised the new concerns and hence the raise in the precious metals.

On Friday, ratings agency of France lowered the rating two notches in their country alone.

Another main reason for this rise is; the Investors are alarmed of the signs of runaway inflation. Many European countries afraid, that their local market gold price will be in raise compared with the expected price in China and India. The sovereign debt and the inflations of some of the countries are the main reason behind the rise.

Because of the market instability, threat of default in certain European countries and inflation kept the precious metal price on its present high. You have put eye on the market trend for few more days to predict the trend of the precious metal.

Stock Market Basics-4

The risks involved in investing Equities
The share prices are affected by factors that comes from within the company ( change of Management, change of policy of company, change of Human resources, fires and accidents in a company ), and the factors outside the company ( General Market condition, Economy, Sector demand and supply, Government Policies, International Wars, Foreign Policy, Demand in the International Markets, etc ).
So equities involves risk. But in a fixed deposit the risk is almost nil ( But it too have some risk. In case, if a Bank fails ). As we have seen earlier, Equities are riskier but they give good rewards. So while investing we should reduce our risk. How can one reduce the risk involved in equities.

Here comes diversification. One should not invest the entire amount at his disposal in a single share or sector. To reduce risk one should use basket of stocks. If one stock or one sector underperforms the market, the other sector or stocks which performs well will compensate the growth. Thus one can see good growth of his portfolio.

Impact of Tsunami on Japan’s Economy

Ever since Japanese Stock Index Nikkei touched 40,000 on January of 1990, it has been in decline. It touched a low of 7000 in 2008. For more than 18 years, Nikkei has been in decline. This says the sorry state of Japan’s Economy. Japan’s Economy was affected by the 2008 recession. Since then, it has been in a minor recovery path.

 

But the present Tsunami, has dashed the hope of full recovery of Jhttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifapan’s Economy. It is being estimated that more than 200 billion of USD was lost in the Tsunami. World Bank has estimated that it may take another 5 years to repair the damages. It is surely a disaster for Japan Economy.

 

Constructing a Atomic power station is not a easy job. It needs lot of money and time. The damaged Atomic power station may need lot time and money to repair it. Since this devastation is caused not only by Tsunami, it is devastated by earth quake as well. Lot of buildings, roads and infrastructure has been damaged in the main land. Though financially, these loss can be manageable by any country, Japan at this stage, given their poor state of economy, cannot afford this disaster.

Aftermath of Japan’s Natural disaster in world Economy

Once again, Nature has demonstrated its vast devastating power on Earth and also it has been once again proved the instability of Human lives in this world. Even though, natural disaster are not new for the Japanese, the present devastation is caused by Earth Quake, Tsunami, and Atomic radiation. Japanese might not have imagined such a three frontal attack on them.

The only consoling thing is that only the coastal areas are affected by this devastation. The main land is not affected by Tsunami. This seems, that Japan will soon recover from this calamity. The resilience and discipline shown by these people shown by this people is astonishing . We have seen utter chaos in the streets of many Asian or European Or American countries whenever a disaster struck. But the Japanese kept their cool and they have moved on.

It is learnt the Tsunami might cost a lot for the insurers. So, it is bad time for Japanese Insurance companies. Japan is an Automobile Major. It may affect the production of these companies. Japan may need lot of money to be put into their economy. So this will surely dampen the export import balance of that country.  Already crude oil saw a mild sell off on the back of Japanese natural disaster fearing a lack of demand on crude.

Commodity prices may move on the back of fresh demand for reconstructing these regions. So metal prices may go up in the near future. The economic impact of this disaster most likely to affect Japan only. It is unlikely to impact other economies.

Stock Market Basics - 3

When you put your money in banks, the bank pays you an interest. The relation between you and your bank is, as it is between a borrower and lender. But in the case of buying shares, you are giving your money to the company to become a partner of that company.
Since you are a partner of that company, you are also a part of the profit and loss of the company. When the company is in profit, the profits will be shared to you according the number of shares you are holding. In case of loss, though they won’t ask you, the value of the share will go down accordingly.
In a bank deposit, the risk is almost nil, though there is some risk associated with it. But in case of equities, the entire capital you have invested is at risk. But the return you get in bank deposit, which is  the interest, is always fixed and small. But the return you get in equities is always high but at the same time, if the company doesn’t perform well, then you are likely to lose the entire capital invested.
So, by investing in equities, you expose your money to high appreciation and also to high depreciation. The risk involved in equities is very high and at the same time the return is also very high. Though the risk is very high, the reward ( here it is the return from equities ) is also very high when compared to bank deposits.
The return on equities is some times phenomenal. Equities appreciate by two times or three times or more than that in a short span of time. Your capital will be doubled in every eight years in Bank deposits. But in shares, in a bull market, your capital will be doubled within few months.

Stock Market basics-2

Every body should invest to financially  protect himself for the rainy day. Investment is different from business. Business is the source of your income. What ever you invest in the business in not your investment. But some spending like buying land for the business can be a investment. So basically business and investments are different.
Investment is for the rainy day. But business is for our regular income. There are different type of investments. It may be shares, Gold, Bond, or real estate. But what you save in banks as deposits are savings. There is a difference between savings and Investment.
Savings can be done in any form. It is saving the excess money in banks or in your locker itself. Savings would not grow as it is. When your savings turn into a investment, it is likely to grow. Properly saved money is a good investment. Savings are not associated with any risk. But investments are associated by with some risk. So investments are risk capital. Where as savings are not.
So Business, Savings and Investments are three different thing. If you could identify these three things, then you have passed your 10th standard in finance. Stock Market investment is an Investment. Stock Market Investment is a risk capital

Stock Market basics-1

Stock Market investments are long term investments that should not be funded by short term debt. Always invest the surplus in Stock Market. Investments in stock market can be done at any age. But as the age increases one should reduce the exposure in stock market to half of his portfolio.
In the long run, equities always offer the highest returns. The amount that can be invested in stock market depends on two criteria. The risk profile of the person and two, the liquidity requirements of the person.
Risk profile
Equity investments are not free of risk. Person who has debts should not invest in Stock Markets. Person who has good career with stable income can take lot of risks in Stock Market. Person who is retired and who is not earning now should take small risk in the stock market.

Liquidity
Liquidity means the need of cash to meet one’s repaying obligations. A person who has debt is in need of liquid cash to meet out his obligations. So he should not invest in Stock Market. A person who has excess money and who has little requirement of liquid cash, can invest a lot in market. A person who has retired from job also is in need of liquid cash to meet out his recurring obligations like rent, telephone bills etc.

Investments in Stock Markets should be done based on risk profile and liquidity requirement of a person.

Will there be a bull market in Real Estate Sector world over?

It is being mentioned in main stream media that there will be bull market in real estate sector. And there is a perception among the investors that real estate prices are going to move up. Will there be really a bull market in this sector?

Earlier, it was in 2008, there was a big bull market top. The top was followed by a big correction and as everybody knows, it has been a bull market since 2009. Now it is being projected, that the bull market will continue its trend in 2011-2012 period also.

If the present rally continues its uptrend for the next two years, then real estate market is growing after a brief correction. Is it possible for a back to back rally in this sector, that’s to in a span of 4 years. As for as speculative markets are concerned, markets after peaking for a long time takes five to 10 years to consolidate its position.

So back to back rally is not possible in this sector within this 4 years. My view is, the present rally in this sector is a temporary one and it is going to be followed by a big bear market which could last even for a decade. Investment in this sector can be avoided at current levels or you can postpone the decision of buying for another 1 year

Short term Outlook of Australian Stock Index

The  Australian Index AORD has been forming a expanding triangle since September of 2009 and also it is forming a expanding triangle since september 2010 in the final leg of the bigger expanding triangle. Expanding triangles normally retrace completely. So the present rally would terminate some where between 4900 and 5250 in levels in near future.

A correction from these levels is likely to terminate around 4600 initially. Break of 4600 could foretell a big correction for AORD. A rally past 5250 could only negate the present bearish scenario for this Index. Almost most of the Western Markets are trading in the same pattern. The bearish pattern is not only seen in AORD, but also in all World Markets.

And also, the rally after October 2009 has not moved above the all time high the AORD formed on 2007. The present rally would miss the previous high by a huge margin, if the present rally terminates around 5250. As of now selling the index when it moves towards 5250 will fetch some good returns from a traders point of view.

Short Term Outlook of FTSE

Since 2009 September, the United Kingdom stock Index FTSE has been trading in a expanding triangle pattern. Expanding Triangle is a reliable. But trading and projecting will be very tough for any Analyst or Trader. The price pattern suggests, the present rally from the low of 4800 from June 2010 seems to be the last leg of the Expanding Triangle.

The last upside rally in an Expanding Triangle would be followed by a last downside leg. If FTSE behaves as we project then it is likely to see a correction towards 4400 levels in coming weeks.  For the short term, the level 6000 seems to be a crucial level for the coming trading session. If it could sustain above that level, a short term rally towards 6300 is likely. If not a correction towards 5450 is likely


In the Long term, since it failed to clear the 2007 high, this Index seems to be in a bear market.

Short term Technical Outlook of Nasdaq

Ever Since September 2009, Nasdaq Index is in expanding triangle pattern. The present rally from september 2010 seems to be the third leg in the upside, which is also seems to be the last leg of the expanding triangle.

Presently, Nasdaq is trading at 2660 levels. Earlier, in 2007 it tested a high of 2870. That level 2870 is likely to be the next upside target of Nasdaq. In the downside the level 2550 is going to be a strong support in the near future. For another 2 to 3 months it is likely to trade between 2550 and 2850.

In the medium term a correction could be possible towards 2100 from 2850.

Short term Technical Outlook of Dow

Dow has been in a medium term rally since it tested 9600 on july this year. Recently, it made a year high at 11615. After testing its high it has been trading just below that level for the past two trading sessions. From here on the level 11300 seems to be crucial. As long as it trades above 11300, it is likely to test 11900 in coming weeks.

On contrary , if breaks 11300 and trades below that level, then it is likely to decline towards 10900 in coming weeks. Futures traders can hold their longs with a stop at 1130. And fresh Shorts can be initiated when Dow rallies towards this level.

The long term trend continues to be bearish. Dow is likely to make major top in the middle of 2011. Until then, one can hold their investments.

Short term Outlook of Jakarta Stock Exchange Index JKSE

For the past three months, JKSE is taking support at 3520 levels and it is likely to act as a trend decider for the coming trading sessions.  In the upper side it was resisted from 3800 region for two times.  Currently it is trading 3600 and it is very close to the short term support level of 3520.

If the index breaks 3660 in the short term it is likely to remain bullish and in the upper side it would try to test 3800 levels once again. On contrary, if it fails to move past 3660, then it could all set to test 3520 again.

Right now, the trading strategy should be based on the level 3660. Traders have a eye on that level to initiate short or long positions.

In the long term charts, the index has moved past its 2008 high of 2850, and made an all time high at 3800. Technical analysis of the index shows it is going to top out in this year 2011.

Behavior of World Indices in 2010

The year 2008 saw a big correction in stock markets world over and it was followed by a rally from 2008. Many Indices rallied and gave one of the biggest appreciation in 2009. The year 2010 can be considered as not bad.


The European Indices rallied in 2010 but the magnitude is less when compared to the Asian Markets. Many Indices in Asia moved past their 2008 highs. Srilankan Stock indices moved passed their 2008 high. Indian Market came very closer to their high, but so far it has not crossed that levels.

But the notable performance is from China’s SSEC. When compared to their other Asian counterparts, the chinese index has so far under performed. If the stock market continues to under perform in coming months, I doubt whether they could maintain their present growth rate.


Since Stock Market prices reflect the future perception of the Market, continuous underperformance foretell a big correction in China’s Stock Markets. If the fastest growing economy in the world, china, doesn’t see their indices move up, it cannot sustain its growth.


In US, the markets rallied, but is has not rallied as much the Asian markets moved.

Is Insurance needed ?

          Insurance is needed to face unwanted death or unexpected accident in one’s life. Insurance is ensuring your family’s good life after your death or ensuring a good life for you after an unwanted and unexpected incident in your life. If you have a motor vehicle, you need to insure it for the same purpose.

Types of Insurance

Life Insurance
This insurance is to cover your life. You can have a term insurance or a endowment policy.
In term insurance, you will get coverage but you will not get any money back. But the amount paid here is very meager.
In endowment policy, you will get coverage and also some many back in a future date. But the premium here is more than the term insurance premium.


Accident Policy
In this policy, in case of any accident, the amount insure will be given. Otherwise, you wont get any return.

Vehicle insurance
In this insurance, the cost of repairing the damage or theft, the life of the driver and the life of the third party who is injured by the vehicle will be covered. In case, if none of the above it claimed, you will not get a return.

Mediclaim
This policy is to cover all your medical expenses.

A person should take all these policies to secure his family from any unexpected events. In particular, the breadwinner of a family should compulsorily have these insurances.

Risk involving in Foreign investment

Foreign direct investment plays a vital role in the international business. It provides a new market and marketing facilities, production facilities in lesser cost, access to latest technology, new products. Foreign direct investment simply means a firm from one country making raw physical investment to build a factory (direct investment is the investment in buildings and equipments not in portfolio investment) in another country.

                In FDI there are so many risks ply with let us analyze one by one the first and foremost one is the country risk. All business dealings involve risk. When the business cross the national boundary then it faces additional risk beyond our control let us analyze one by one. These risks are of national differences in economic conditions, policies, socio political situations and the currency values. You may categorize them in to following six main headings.

                Economic Risk

               

                Transfer Risk

               

                Exchange Risk

               

                Location Risk

                Sovereign Risk

                and

               

                Political Risk.

               

                Economic Risk is the significant change in the economic conditions that can produce major change in the expected return of a foreign investment.

                Transfer risk simply means the risk arising from the decision of the foreign government to restrict capital flow. As the governments have the liberty to revise their policy at any time the transfer risk is also high.

                Exchange risk is an unexpected change in the exchange rate. As the currency hedging mechanisms is impractical over a long period, the exchange risk can be developed.

                Location risk is the risk which includes spillover effects caused by the problems of the particular region or the problems in the partner country.

                Sovereign risk procedures of a government’s capability to pay are similar to transfer risk measures. Sovereign risk has close association with transfer risk.

                Political Risk concerns risk of change in political climate, change in government, and change in society or any other non economic factor.

                 Hence every foreign company examines various methods to measure the risk of investing in a foreign country and the lay a strategy to minimize the risk.

                                                                                                                                          (to be continued)

Carbon Trading

After the Kyoto Summit, all the developed countries agreed to limit their emission level and if not they have to pay a price for their emission. Here the carbon trading comes to ply. The main idea behind carbon trading is to curtail the emission levels of each country and give monetary benefits to the countries with low emissions. As the developing countries can start with clean technologies they will get more monetary benefits from the developed countries.

          For example if a company in India cuts X tones of carbon, it can sell this much amount of points to a company which is emitting carbons in the developed country. The World Bank itself is the monitoring authority.

                Hence carbon trading allows carbon emitting industries in the developed countries to set of their emissions by investing in a large scale mass reforestation projects in the developing countries to nullify their emission. 100000 hectares of forest can eliminate one million tons of carbon in a year from the environment.

                The calculation is very simple. Half of the trees dry weight is carbon. The amount of carbon stored by the trees is calculated from their volume (the volume is calculated the height and the area of cultivation of forest).From the volume the dry wood is calculated and from this carbon proportion is estimated. These projects not only directly fetch money but also indirectly give social, economic and environmental benefits to the developing country.

                India is the second largest country after china. India has generated 30 million carbon credits and expecting 140 million credits in the long run. Around thousand carbon credit projects have already started and around two hundred new projects every year added every year.

                Presently, carbon credit from thermal projects gives 7 to 8$ in the international market. Now NCDEX  is to commenced carbon trading in Indian market. Carbon trading is one of the fast growing volatile market.

Are ULIPs Good Investments?

The unit linked Insurance plans are simply called ULIP. ULIP are financial instruments which will give a term insurance coverage and, investment in stocks  In ULIP, the premium paid by investor goes to two separate investments. One goes for your insurance and the other goes for the investment in stock market. The insurance part consumes less amount and the investment plan consumes more amount. But, in the first year, a major portion of the premium goes to insurance companies as administrative costs which includes the commission paid to the Agents.
So, in the first year, a major chunk of the premium goes to the company and a small amount of the premium is invested in stocks and a small portion is taken for the term insurance. From second year onwards, the administrative costs will be reduced substantially and the balance will be used for investment in stocks and also for the insurance.
If the premium is paid for a long period, at the end of the maturity, one will get a good return. Will this investment option get benefit to the investors? Stock market investments are destined to give good results in the long term, say, more than 10 years.
But people attracted to these plans only during bull market. Their investments get eroded in the next bear market. Now they get confused whether to hold or get rid of it or to invest more. As I said earlier, stock market are bullish in the long term, always, and it will give good results in the longer run. So if an Investor continues his investments even in bear market surely investment in ULIPs will be beneficial.

Is the Indian Stock Market topping out?

     The Indian Stock Market bench mark Index Sensex has scaled 21150 on January 2008 and it followed by a big crash and by October 2008, it tested a low of 7700, a level achieved in just 10 months. Stock Market crash was followed by economic slow down. The Indian Economy which was growing around 8% at that time, saw a downturn in its GDP growth.

     Now the same Bench mark Index Sensex is trading well near its all time high of 21150. When Sensex was trading in 2008, its PE ratio is 21. It was at that time a high Price to Earnings ratio. Historically when ever Sensex trades above the PE ratio of 20, it tops out.

    Now, with Sensex trading above 20000, already the PE ratio has crossed the 21 mark and it is trading well above that. Fundamentally, a top has to form around this level. Technically speaking, a double top formation is a possibility. Technical and Fundamental indicators point to a top at this level. Sentimentally, euphoria is seen in stock market circles. The continuous flow of FII funds in the market is boosting the sentiment. The bullish sentiment has reached the levels that was seen in January 2008.

    I feel it is the right time to withdraw the funds from stock market. With everything getting saturated, a bullish sentiment alone cannot take the market further. So a correction is going to be there in the near future.

    Protect your capital and don’t get sucked into the crowd. Beware, in stock markets, crowd is always wrong.

Will a ban on outsourcing Save US from recession?

The Obama Administration in USA has slapped service tax on companies which are outsourcing to other countries ( mostly to India ), in order to bring jobs back to USA and to improve the business conditions in USA. The Indian Software and BPOs are likely to suffer in the future, if the US companies stop outsourcing from India.
Will this act stop US from going into recession? If this is the question, then the answer would be good ‘NO’. The Global Economies suffered a setback in 2008 because of the crash in the stock Markets world over. The stock Market Crash has jolted the US and European Economies in particular.
Ever since the crash, the Asian and South American Economies improved and their Stock Markets rallied to their 2008 levels. But the US and European Economies seen little improvement and their Stock Markets rallied but not to the level which it was seen in 2008 January.
Since Stock Markets in these countries never rallied much, the liquidity, business confidence, job conditions have not improved. This percolates into their Economies which in turn is looking weak right now. Banning Outsourcing by the US companies in no way going to improve their economy.
Actually, it is likely to impact badly their economies in the Future. The performance of the US Companies depends upon the cost cutting measures they are taking. Stopping outsourcing will surely increase the working cost and it will be reflected in their bottom line.  A weak performance of these companies will further dampen the US Economy.

Gold is likely to top in 3 months

Gold, it seems it is likely to be topped out in coming months between 1250 and 1300. Technically speaking, since 2006 Gold is in a expanding pattern. The first top formed on 2006, followed by the next on 2008 and the present top is likely to be formed on 2010.
In a expanding triangle, the first upside leg is followed by a first downside correction and it will be followed by the second upside leg by the second downside leg. The second upside and downside will be bigger than the first upside and downside legs. The third would be bigger than the second one.
The present technical setup of Gold shows, it is in the third upside leg and it is likely to be followed by a third downside leg and it would be the big downside in last 4 years since 2006. If that happens then Gold is likely to fall towards 900 USD in another 1 year.
Any market has see a bull and bear market. We have already seen bull market. So surely there will be bear market in Gold also. No one can take the rally in Gold as granted. Investments in Gold and related products should be avoided at this juncture.

What skill is really needed for a trader in stocks

Trading in Stock Market is one of the toughest mental game in the world. Very few succeed in the game and majority of traders lose in the markets. What makes the difference between a loser and winner in stock market. Since trading stocks is a mental game, those who are having good emotional control over them win in the stock market.

If anybody takes decision impulsively instead of logically, he is likely to end up in loss. What most trader lack is, the ability to cut loss when it is small and the ability to hold their winning position till it gives a good profit. Lacking of both these qualities lead to loss in stocks.

The first and most important of this is, the ability to cut down their loss when it is small. Once you take a position, and if it is against you, you should not live on your wish but you should act on what your technical knowledge tells you. If your stop loss levels are triggered you need to book loss when it is small. Here always comes your ego. It will tell you not to close your position as if you will be right. Those who over come this ego, will certainly close their position. So one main quality a trader should posses is, he should overcome his ego.

The next thing is booking profits early. Even though it is not as evil as running the loss, it too have the same financial disaster. If you couldn’t make big profits in the long run, then what is the use of trading in the markets, that too with big risk associated with it.

Be a trader who book loss early and allow to run your profits. As legendary trader Jesse Livermore said ‘ Sitting right and sitting tight ‘ will give good profits in the long run

Indian Currency now has a new symbol

Of late, the Government of India has approved a new symbol for Indian Rupee in line with USD ( $ ), Euro and etc. Though the decision is late, it has come at a appropriate time when India is being recognized a world economic power. G-8 Group has lost it significance and it is being replaced by G-20 in which India and China are members. And it shows the importance of India in world arena.
The Government of India has shortlisted five symbols to finalize in one symbol from that. Finally, the symbol designed by Udayakumar from Chennai has got the nod of the government and he was awarded Rs 2 lakhs cash prize. Now the Government has to seize the opportunity that is being created in International arena as an important world power to market the symbol in financial world to popularize the symbol.
The Re symbol is not just a symbol, it is the symbol of India's pride, importance and dominance in international arena. We all know how the USD $ and Euro are dominating the world trade. Hope the Indian Rupee will rule the world one day.

The Legendary Trader, Jesse Livermore

Jesse Livermore was an legendary trader of stocks and commodities during the early 20th century. At the height of his fame, he earned more than USD 100 Million. He earned and lost millions of Dollars in his career.

At the young age, he left his house to work in bucket shops. Bucket shops are nothing but gambling house and their bets are based on the actual movement of stocks in New York Stock Exchange. Soon he mastered that game and started betting real money on stocks and earned windfall profits. This led to the banning of him from most of bucket shops. He earned more than what he gave to them.

One fine morning he moved to New York to try his luck. His experiences in the bucket shop had helped in making a good fortune in 1909 and 1929 crashes. Most of the time he played the Bear. He was known at that as a big Bear in the stock Market circles.

His famous strategy was to add further positions in winning trades and cutting the losses quickly. Some times he did not follow his own rules. So he lost all his fortunes. He died by killing himself and he was in huge debt when he died.


He has written a book  called ‘ Reminiscences ' of a stock market ‘ under a pseudo name. This Book is considered as a classic for its depiction of speculation in an interesting way, even now.

W D Gann, A Legendary Trader of Markets

 

Gann was born on June 6, 1878 in Texas, USA. His father was a cotton industrialist. He started trading the stocks in 1902 when he was 24.

An avid reader of charts, he developed over the years a Technical Analysis method to determine the movement of stocks. He never revealed the method to anyone but he hinted that his forecasts were based Law of Vibration. He accurately forecasted where a stock would sell.

In 1909,  'The ticker and Investment Digest" Magazine reported they had oversaw his trading for October of that year and it included 286 winning trades and 22 losing, a win rate of 92%, which is unthinkable even now.

He also hinted what ever happened in stock market had happened earlier. He said, ‘History always repeats itself’. Later, he used astrology in predicting the stock market movements. And also Gann described the use of geometrical angles in the stock market.
After acquiring a huge fortune, he started teaching students of Technical Analysis. He wrote the following books;-

• How to Make Profits Trading in Puts and Calls
• 45 Years in Wall Street
• Truth of the Stock Tape
• How To Make Profits in Commodities
• Truth of the Stock Tape and Wall Street Stock Selector

Any Student of Technical Analysis should at least have some insight about his method to be a successful Analyst.

Some Useful Trading Resources of Traders

For successful Investing or trading, one needs knowledge. A good and through knowledge about the financial Market is necessary for a successful financial life. You need to get quality inputs about the market to enhance your knowledge below I have given some resources which I felt best to my knowledge.

If you are interested in Technical Analysis, then these following sites would be of more helpful to you.
1. www.Stockcharts.com
2. www.Elliottwave.com
3. www.neowave.com
4. www.traders-talk.com

Here are some of the must read books on Technical Analysis and Investing

1. Technical Analysis explained – by Martin Pring
2. Elliott Wave Principle – by Robert Prechter
3. Reminiscences of a Stock Market Operatior – by  Jesse Livermore

Still, there are some more interesting books. I will mention it in the next post.

Which sector is going to lead the next bull market?

The million dollar question that is being raised more often during Bear Market is, which sector is going to charge the next bull Market. Everybody has their own answers to this question. Let me have my answer here. My predictions are based on Technicals.
If you look at the charts of any sector  which has undergone a bull market, we would find the previous bear market to that bull market would be mild one. Which means, the sector that is going to undergo bull market is likely to see a not so strong bear market.
If it sees a strong bear market, it would not be possible for that sector to climb such a big height to lead a big bull market. So, the previous bear market should be a mild one. Going by that case, then we can find Pharma, FMCG, Banking Sector didn’t see a big bear market during 2008 bear market.
This indicates this sector is likely to lead the next bull market which is likely to start in 2 or 3 years, worldwide. Investments in this sector is likely to give good returns in coming years. Be smart when it comes to investing.

Types of Trading Styles of a Stock Market Trader

Many people who are new to the stock Market might have heard about the words Intraday Trading, Swing Trading, Momentum trading and etc. To understand the concept simply, I have here given some explanations to these terms.
Intraday Trading
If any body buys stocks using margin money and sells the stocks on the same day itself, then it is Intraday Trading. Here buying and selling is done on the same day itself. The quantity may vary according to the trader. The intention of a day trader is to use the movements in the intraday to make money. Personally, it is the toughest trading in the Market.
Positional Trading or Swing Trading
If a trader takes a long (buy) or short (sell) position in the futures market and holding it for more than one day, then it is positional trading. The intention of the positional trader is to make use of the short term price movements of the stock, either in the downside or in the upside. The difference between day trading and positional trading is, in day trading one can use the intraday movement only and the positions are closed on that day itself and also the intraday movement will be less when compared to short term movement but in positional trading the swing in short term would more than the intraday movement.
So automatically, the profit or loss potential is high in positional trading. Those who has high capital can trade the market positionally.

Momentum Trading
Momentum trading is done by traders who interested only in big moves in the downside or upside. They wait till they anticipate a big move. They don’t trade all the time. This trading also has its high risk. If the trader fails to anticipate the correct direction of the market, they he will end up in huge loss unless he cuts his positions immediately.
Select the trading style that suits well your personality. Happy trading

The Main stream media is always wrong on Market directions.

Have a look at what the media said about the Markets during 2008 January when most of the Stock Markets worldwide topped out. Everybody in the media is bullish on Stock Markets. Not even a single article in Media warned of a major top around the corner.
I could see at least some Technical Analysts could vaguely register their suspicion of a impending top in Stock Markets.On contrary everybody was bullish on Stock Markets at that time. Now check what the media has said during October 2008 crash. Now at this time, the whole world media was bearish on Stock Markets. The reverse happened here. Nobody warned of an impending bottom at that time. The Markets world over rallied from October 2008. This shows the mainstream media is always when it comes to report about the market.
The main reason for the media to get caught in the wrong side of the market is because of the technical position of the Market. When majority of the Market participants are bullish on any market, the main stream media is also bullish on the markets. But technically, when every body is bullish, market would have reached its full buying potential. So this lead to change of trend.
For Investing in Stocks, don’t follow what is media is telling you. Take your decision on your own.

Ways to get a Good Credit Card

Today, while I come across Internet, I visited an excellent site which gives us very vast information about the credit cards. Selecting a good credit card is a cumbersome process, with lot of false promises like instant approval, guaranteed approval etc. But you will get a complete solution for all your credit card needs here.

You can compare credit cards offer, by all Brands and Issuer without any hassle here. Once you visit here, you will get a thorough knowledge of how to use the credit card, more importantly how you can earn profit from your credit card.

If you are a student, then you an avail a student credit card from leading brands with huge cash back bonus and earn rewards with your student credit card. Even a cosigner is not required for a student credit card.

If you are an over spender and you wish to control your spending pattern then prepaid credit cards suits you. If you don’t have the record for your spending pattern then you can get a prepaid credit card for you. Using this kind of card, you can avoid unnecessary fees and interest burden.you can compare various card and their offers.

Once you compared and collected various details about the different credit cards and their offers form this site, you can avail the instant online approval from here and you will get the instant result with remark at once.

Then, What next log in and avail  secured credit card  and reap the benefits.

Digital Asset Management

Digital Asset Management is the use of technology which helps us to manage, protect and monetize our Digital Assets which we work with in our Business or profession as well as our personal life. Digital assets include the computer software, documents, emails, audio and video files and any other document which we stored in a computer. The Digital Asset Management applications are similar to that of the simple file management system. They will collect our digital assets, organize them in order, backing up them for future use and securing the digital assets to safe guard the interest of the author him self.

As the digital assets can be easily transacted online there is more chances of the piracy, hence efficient management is must to safeguard the rights and interests of the Original authors.

There are several types of Asset Management System. They are: They are Brand Asset Management System, Library Asset Management System, Product Asset Management System and Digital Supply Chain Management System. One of the most useful features of the asset management system is the ability to search for a particular file with minimum information. With the Asset Management System the author is freed from complex file naming because the system itself will assign Unique Identifier Code while file is ingested. Though DAM and ECM both are having more similarities they are having different advantages in different  files handlings, for example ECM specializes in official word documents and Excel  sheets,  scanned documents pictures emails and faxes where as DAM  is of greater use in managing rich media files such as photographs and audio video files.

Consequences of un uniform growth

Latest survey of a leading research institution published an article mentioning that Mumbai GDP will over take Thailand and Hong Kong by the   the year 2030. Really it is very good to hear that one metropolitan city’s GDP is  greater than a country( though the Countries are small).  but is worth to watch the negative side of the growth.
Now a days the most of the developments are focused in and around the cities only which reflects that all developments and infra structure planned for the cities only, Hence the population growth of Mumbai will raise about 74% because of the increase in labour opportunities. Because of the population explosion in the cities the government has to  spent more for the infra structure and the basic amenities for the people. Comparing with China  we are spending very less  for the infra structure.

For this only the government has to spend at least  112 Lakhs  Crores of rupees. If the Government is more focused about the metropolitan cities then the villages and the towns will be completely in the neglected state. Which will give a negative impact of our economy.

Hence    the growth of the country  will be sustain and lead in a positive trend if and only if the growth is in all aspects, irrespective of villages and cities. There should not be a discrimination  between the cities and the villages. The Government has to plan and focus more for the development of villages which will  result in the uniform growth of the country.In other words un uniform growth will only lead to the negative impact only.

What is future of Airline Industry?

The Airline Industry languished in 2008-2009 period because of economic downtrend in Countries all over the world. After June 2009, the Industry picked up because air travel across the world picked up and also by air cargo transport. The last two quarters, Airline companies saw some revival in their earnings. And every one thought the worst is over for the Airline Industry.

But Suddenly, the ashes from the volcanoes of Iceland brought the movement of Airlines to standstill in Europe. The flights passing through Europe from other Continents were also affected due to this. This has come as rubbing salt in the wounds for airline industry. Almost all the flights were cancelled in Europe which is the center point of Air traffic in the world.

With the Economic conditions are not improving and it is standstill in many countries, the revival of Airline industry is looking bleak in the near futures. Investors can avoid making investments in Airline stocks are the current level.

How good is Autamated trading system in Trading the Markets?

Automated trading system is a method that generates buy and sell signals based on mathematical calculation to trade the markets without any manual interpretation. The Mathematical calculation could be any formulae like RSI, ROC, Stochastic and etc.
Based on any single indicator or multiple indicators, the system generates buy and sell signals in Intraday, Short term and Long term. A trader by himself, without studying the technicals of the stock, can do buy and sell based on these signals. A manual study of these technicals is a cumbersome process. A trader no needs to experience this hardship to trade in the markets when he uses this Automated trading system.
Will this automated trading system really help a trader in buying and selling in the Markets? The Answer is simply no. Because, the first thing is, the market movements cannot be gauged in mathematical formulas. The market movements are random and it cannot come into the gambit of formulas.
Even if there is one, the discovery of that formula would have been already discounted by the Market. Unless you study the markets manually and understand the nuances by yourself, no one can make profit out of the markets.

Will The Bull Run Continue in Dow Jones?

The US Stock Index Dow Jones made an all time high of 14,279 on October 2007 and it was followed by a crash towards 6440 in march 2009. The crash to that level was followed by a rally towards 11000. Today it has made a high of 11038. Now the Million Dollar question is, will Dow move past 14000 in the near term.

Fundamentally speaking, though the financial situation is under control, it has not fully recovered from the recession. Though some indicators are improving, it really doesn’t reflect the growth we have seen 3 years back. The fundamentals have not improved as the stock prices. When everybody is bullish on Markets and Economy, a major top is likely to form. The same situation is prevailing now also. Every where we can see optimism. Nobody is talking of badtimes which has happened only one year back.

Technically speaking, the crash in 2008 is followed by rally in 2009 which is very quick when compared to the previous rallies. It means it is V shaped recovery. These type of vast price movements are always seen in Market bottoms and Market Tops. Since the present volatility is taking place in a Top area, the present technical situation is better construed as a top which indicates, the present rally is likely to lose steam in coming weeks. Going by the technicals, it indicates Dow is unlikely to cross 14000 for another 3 to 5 years.

Retail Investors should be carful at this time. They should stick to the law, ‘Buy low and Sell high’. Right now the we have to sell high. The impending top is around the corner. Be prepared for the event. Don’t get buoyed by the Euphoria in the Markets.

Terrorism and development

If you look at the countries which are affected by terrorism, it is evident that those countries are not developed yet. Terrorism is caused by religious belief and social disparity. In developed countries, we rarely see terrorism except because of religion.

In Europe, Spain and England are affected by religious terrorism. But none of the European Countries is affected by terrorism that is borne out of social disparity. This is because, the development in these Countries are homogenous and their society is not separated by casted and creed.

It is not the case in India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal or Afghanistan. The society in these countries are divided by caste, creed and religion. That is why we see Maoist struggle in India and Nepal and bomb blasts in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The main problem in these countries is the social disparity the communities. It is wide open in these countries.

That is why the internal clashes are happening frequently in these countries. If the disparity between the communities in this countries are reduced then automatically the social unrest would come to lower level. Instead of decimating the terrorist, if the Governments in these Countries decimate the social disparity, the menace of Terrorism would be rooted out completely. But no Government seems to move in this direction.

Digital Will

We are living in the Digital world, most of our business, financial and social communications and its developments are through the internet only. These digital contacts and communication are called us digital Assets or Virtual Assets. In other words, the emails, passwords electronic documents, websites and Blogs, other files either in Web or in Computer is called as Digital Assets.

Suppose the Virtual or the Digital asset holder dies unfortunately all the virtual assets could be frozen, since it could not be accessed by his successor or his legal heirs. Further if the successor wants to access the digital documents and he approaches the court he has to submit the succession certificate and many other legal identity and password which is a cumbersome process. Here I wish to remind you the password are subject to change more frequently. And if the legal heir approaches Google, Yahoo or any other service provider, how they can be judge the claim?

Here the Digital Will helps. Digital Will is an electronic document similar to that of a Physical Will in other words is a Will for a Digital Assets. Unlike a paper will Digital Will, will be stored on a safe and secured service and can be updated easily. Now there are more online service providers are available with competitive tariff structure. As this is a new concept they are now structuring a common procedure to less the pain of the legal heir.

Last but not the least word, there are so many legal issues are there in between Last Will and Digital Will. In England Last Will cannot be replaced by a Digital Will.

Which is the Personality that best suits trading?

Trading is a mind game. Having said that, each trading person has different mindset or personality. The most important factors that decide the personality is Emotion and Logic of the Brain. Some take decisions emotionally, and some take it logically, while some take it partly emotional and partly logical. Some have a very disciplined mind and some don’t have that mindset.

So, which one is the best personality to trade in Stock or Commodities Market? Once a trading Guru in USA, trained both ordinary civilians and some former US Marine Soldiers. He taught them to trade in stock markets using Technical Analysis and Fundamental analysis. He trained them in short term trading in Futures and Options. He taught the students where to book profit and where to cut loss of a trading positions. After some period of time, the Guru asked the students to trade on their own in real time with real money.

The results are some what astonishing. The former Marines performed well in the trading than the other students. The Guru analyzed the results and come to know that the former Marines are most disciplined and they followed the trading rules correctly with out fail. That is, because of the discipline they used to follow in military training.

This gives the conclusion that those who follow the trading discipline correctly without any emotion is likely to trade better in speculative Markets.

Are you the one who trades with discipline and logically?

Should Governments do business?

In India, when it got independence from the British, the Government was in the need of building Industries and Business to promote industrialization in the Country. At that time it didn’t have many Entrepreneurs and Industrialists. So Government took the initiatives and started many companies and Industries in all sectors. At that time, the Government is following a socialistic type of Government. So at that instead of encouraging new Entrepreneurs, Government itself has started all the Industries.

Those industries which were started by Government started running successfully and it contributed to the Industrial revolution of the Country. But as the Country progressed towards 1980 and 1990, there was a steady decline in their performance. The Public Sector Undertakings had started to behave like Government departments and that was why their performances declined during this period. But at the time, lot of private companies have been started and lot of new Entrepreneurs have grown in private sector of this Country.

This led to fair growth in the Industrial development of India. But the performances of many Government companies continued to decline. Some companies had gone sick at that time. And they became a burden for Government. After 1990 , the Government started disinvesting these Companies to private sector and they once again started performing well.

In USA, except finance and defense, every other industry is privatized. Because of this from 2008 many banks are failing in USA. But in India, non of the Banks failed.

I believe a Economy which is partially Market, and Partially socialistic, is good for any developing Country.