Banks will have to regain trust

The current financial crisis through the financial markets due to subprime write-downs but also with the announcement of an unprecedented fraud at Society General structurally alter the banking landscape and challenges acquired banks to the market, investors as well as their clients: the confidence of financial institutions.

Through the efforts of transparency, better management of their operational costs and optimizing their capital, banks have to adapt to a financial cycle that will require them to demonstrate their ability to innovate both in terms of respect new regulatory ratios in terms of cost reduction and business development. The impact of this crisis of confidence and the levers available to financial institutions to restore calm and confidence in the system should be done at the earliest.

China investors shunning banks

You could fear that may happen in Europe, but in China it is happening. According to the official press, the four largest commercial banks are Chinese investors look to other alternatives - such as individuals and private companies - to deposit their money, it pushed by high inflation and low interest rates.

According to the Zhongguo Zhengjuan Bao (Journal of China securities), deposits of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China Construction Bank (CCB), Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) fell by 420 billion Yuan (48.6 billion Euros) during the first 15 days of September.

The business daily also argues that much of the funds were placed on a parallel credit market. If individuals and companies are certainly not having status to bank, they nevertheless offer pay about ten times higher than bank deposits. Recall that the rise in consumer prices was 6.2% in August, while the deposit rates at one year is only 3.5%. In the end, so investors lose purchasing power by placing their money in the bank.

It should be noted also that in early September, the rating agency Fitch said it may lower the sovereign rating of China in the next two years. Reasons: the heavy debt the Chinese banking sector, the latter having provided massive loans in recent months.

Fitch confirms the highest score to Germany

The rating agency Fitch on Tuesday reaffirmed the "AAA" rating to Germany, and now it is the best position. The outlook remains stable on the other hand. A good report that offers the very interesting German debt investment safe haven status in these troubled times.

Speaking in a statement, Fitch highlights the following: a German economy "robust and diversified", "health" of the labor market, a macroeconomic management "prudent" investments and "vigorous". According to the agency, the prevailing market rate for the German debt if need be shown the safe haven status associated with it. However, that "the resolution of the crisis in the euro zone remains a determining factor for the stability of the German economy" notes Fitch.

"With a 40% share of German exports, 2% of GDP spent on existing support plans, and exposure of its banking sector to peripheral economies in the euro area, the risk of contagion from the crisis in Germany public debt remains high, "said Fitch, as well.

A position that echoes that of the IMF, the IMF saw as a likely scenario now possible spread of the debt crisis of the euro area financial system. "The banks' exposure to the fragile economies of the euro area is a fraction of the total, but is concentrated on a small number of institutions," said the agency also. The Landesbanken, regional public banks also remain a weak point of the German economy, Fitch believes that "an additional restructuring and consolidation is needed in this sector."

Recall that the Basel Committee refuses to recognize the present German peculiarity consists in that a large part of bank capital is composed of public hybrid capital which banks must pay interest to shareholders. Local authorities could be forced to run vast operations re-capitalization, the amount could be just "confessed" politically speaking.

For many years, observers indicate persistently that only two or three Landesbanken sufficient in Germany, instead of the seven schools being independent. But, of course, local politicians are hesitant to say the least to give up some of the prestige and economic power associated with these regional facilities.

New measures to support the American economy

The U.S. Federal Reserve, Central Bank of the United States (EDF) announced Wednesday that it would take further measures to support the U.S. economy, saying the resumption of the latter remained "slow". Among the measures: the sale by the end of June 2012 the equivalent of $ 400 billion in Treasury bills.


Subsequently, the Fed plans to buy an equivalent amount with a longer maturity in an attempt to lower interest rates and long-term power purchase real estate securities without increasing the size of its portfolio, the objective to support the mortgage market. The Fed also said it would keep its key interest rate near zero until mid-2013 if necessary.

On Tuesday, investors had taken for granted that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) announced shortly measures to resume, background likely to increase demand for raw materials. While opening the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Fed, investors are already betting on a new "Operation Twist", which is to lower interest rates in the long term to boost the activity without act on interest rates in the short term.

In fact, such an operation is to extend the maturity of securities held in the balance sheet, ten years and over, to reduce rates, evidence to boost business investment and household on the housing market. Such a measure Devit also have an immediate impact on prices by devaluing the dollar and increasing demand in emerging markets.

Sharp rise in bad loans of banks in Spain

Decidedly, things keep getting worse in Spain, while the Madrid Stock Exchange barely see the green, data published Monday by the Bank of Spain indicate that bad debts are Spanish banks amounted to 3.1 billion euros in July, reaching a total of 124.7 billion euros. Note also that the ratio of NPLs to total loans granted by the Spanish financial sector amounted to 6.94% in July, corresponding to a level not seen since February 1995. Induced by such a situation of rising unemployment and increasing household debt.

Recall in this connection that the mortgage-up over 70% of household debt. However, this often forgotten by the media to tell you is that almost 85% of Spanish mortgages in 2001 consisted of floating rate loans. Note that in other countries such as France and Germany, less than 20% of loans to the same period are of this type. A context that makes the Spanish market particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates from the European Central Bank ....

Let us recall that in Spain, the Euribor ((interbank lending rate in the euro area) in one year is the index most used to index the interest rate. Finally, 93.2% of families in debt for real estate purchases on the other side of the Pyrenees are at variable rates.