Crowdfunding a best alternative to Banks?

The crowd funding begins to touch the world of Start -Up, as an alternative to banks and business funders. Crowd funding is in between barter and solidarity loan capitalism of yesteryear, crowd funding often have much fun and attractions but it is sometimes risky. Many projects that have or will emerge in part through crowd funding (literally financing by the crowd), also called crowd funding. The phenomenon is not new: In 1958, John Cassavetes was able to finance his first film “Shadows “with a call for funds to public through radio. This phenomenon is becoming increasingly important. And now there are more than thirty sites are assisting general public as the crowd funding investors. Few of them are Ulule , MyMajorCompany , Sandawe , KissKissBankBank , Loan Union HelloMerci , Babyloan SmartAngels , Wiseed , Anaxago etc.

 The crowd funding market raised already worth $ 2.5 billion in the United States alone. There are three types of crowd funding. First, there is the gift against gift, nothing but a barter system. Then there is the system of loans or micro-credit. Some are paid, others do not, and that is like solidarity loan. Finally there is the financing of a business project in exchange for shares. The gift system against donation is very common in the world of arts. Projects may be small or substantial. Micro-credit is also very concerned and developed projects in US and abroad, mostly in trade, agriculture etc. According to Ricordeau Vincent, one of the founders of Kiss Kiss BankBank , "the motivation is to give birth to a project without any other return on investment a return emotional . People seek social link, a contact based on sharing, empathy, and trust. It is completely selfless unlike a financial return on investment. "

 For some companies, it is an alternative to banks and business lenders. This is particularly the case of start-ups, with little equity in start-up phase. However, crowd funding sites do not replace the banks. They do not lend money and they do not handle client funds. They are in an intermediate step of advice and not through management. The client chooses his investment and invests himself live in society. The sites just forgive a direct link between investors and entrepreneurs. This is the online community that validates whether the project should be born or not. This is not a window that decides to grant money or not. The risk is real and greater than the stock markets which has the advantage of being more liquid and especially give a real-time indication of the value of its assets.

Capital loss may be total and the second risk is the liquidity, This is an investment you can make for an unlimited period than what you anticipated. So do not invest money that you think you need three to five years. But there is another side: a significant potential gain, as we arrive shortly after the creation of the company. And it's worth it to invest in companies earlier. Here the risk and the reward are fairly standard. Regarding the gift donation against the financial risk is limited because the average financial contribution of users is around 50 Euros. If successful, the trust is garnered monumental. The question of the output is still crucial because all companies are not intended to go on an exchange.

If ramping up its activity, the company may be acquired by a competitor where leaders may choose to redeem the shares of the minority. And the price and the valuation is a matter of negotiation between the parties. Often these issues are anticipated in the shareholders' agreements. Early outputs can also be provided, but the recommended investment period is about 3 to 5 years, to let the company time to create value. In the end, crowd funding today fills a void in the financial needs. It allows artists to project promoters, merchants to support their project to start. Internet also allows them to reach a larger number of donors, lenders or investors, but is by no means a guarantee of success. Crowd funding is still in its early stage. Hence the Crowd funding is a social network linking young companies seeking skills, people willing to integrate a project as a partner or as freelancer and helping each other by joining hands together.

Know more about Crowd funding!

Crowd funding is a technical project finance business start using the internet as a channel of linkage between project managers and those wishing to invest in these projects. Of course it is an ancient practice but currently it is the subject of a wide popularity due to its simplicity of operation and the difficulties faced by some designers to find financing for their small projects.

 How it works?

The investor who wants to invest some money in a good project at one end and the holder of a project who starts business but does not have the funds needed to start his business and does not want to call the bank credit at the other end. The both meet on the Internet via a dedicated platform. The projects are presented by their holders and investors choose to fund one that they like to live up to what they want to invest. The simple operation of this form of financing also has the advantage of transparency for the investor. Both knows what is funds and by which choice and by its values. Crowd funding is associated with all kinds of projects. Generally, cultural, digital projects, social, environmental, innovative are the few worth mention.

 Three types of inputs are available to investors:

The first type of investment is a small gift or donation that is given to the project but the remuneration of the investor has no financial consideration. The second type of investment is a participation in the equity of the company created. The remuneration of the investor is then by dividends or the gain realized on the sale of securities. The third type of a investment is a loan. Pouring loan interest may only be offered by credit institutions authorized by the Banks. Fundraising to make lending is strictly prohibited. Only collecting interest free loans is open to individuals. The money invested can be few dollars to several hundred. Banking and tax regulations is a source of significant stress for structures offering financing platforms that obey different rules : The detailed identification of the investor ( proof of identity and residence) is needed to controls against money laundering , anti- terrorism, etc.

Cont...

Crowdfunding

The crowdfunding is a practice that is becoming increasingly important in all sectors. The "Crowdfunding" means "crowd funding" is to highlight key projects on an online platform and collect donations from users to realize the project. To date, there are several online platforms that do crowdfunding. This device allows individuals to find projects that match their taste, nearby or across the world, in all areas that are, and contribute directly to their construction, thanks to their savings in the form of committed gift, loan, or capital. The problem is that more and more participatory sites come onto the market, and each has a different mode of operation. According to the funding model on which they are based, the consequences for individual investors are not the same.

Mymajorcompany is a crowdfunding online in 2007 platform provides an opportunity for people who want to fund a project to place their gifts on a project of an artistic nature of a fixed term of six months. The project manager makes his case online retailer counterparties repay it intends to users. At the end of the operation, if the project has raised enough money to see the date, individual donors perceive generally a share of profits from the commercialization of the project, "if it generates." This model then gives a close to a "micro business angel" to users who invest in the sustainability of the project status. Other platforms offer gifts to reward individuals who contribute to the financing of projects. If the amount set is reached, the project is funded and users receive a symbolic reward for their participation. The counterparty may be a book autographed a copy of the disc, a card or just a letter / email of thanks. The business model here is closer to the hardcore gift. It keeps the character "philanthropist" to donate to help and not to return on investment. The most popular sites are KissKissBankBank, Babeldoor are the few crowdfunding platforms works by financing through a loan. The user advances some funds to the project of their choice. Once the project is completed, the user is reimbursed up to his contribution. In this area, the most famous platform Babyloan.org lends without interest.

 There is currently no legislation governing trade and financial flows on crowdfunding platforms. The reason is that the amounts are not large enough to be controlled by law. However, crowdfunding involves several "soft" areas. In the case of a system based on micro-credit model, the platform must have approval by Authority, which is rarely the case. Then, any financial contribution by an individual to a project gives it the status of "associate" because its contribution is legally speaking a capital contribution to the project, which is never the case. Crowdfunding is basically a system that works through donations. The payments are considered donations, must be reported to the tax and to be taxed. The majority of individuals skip this step. If these sites are regularly used to give large sums of money, it is likely that the IRS is involved.

The Circular Economy

The Institute of circular economy was officially launched in Paris on February 6. The main objective of the principle of circular economy is interesting because it is based on the idea that "The waste of one person is another resources of others. This model, which involves a long-term vision, as well as the economy of resource management and environment, seems like a good track to emerge from the economic, social and environmental crisis in which we are stuck now. The Institute of circular economy is an alternative vision of the economy. The Institute is composed of national and local policy-makers, entrepreneurs, academics from different backgrounds and association leaders. The aim of this structure is to promote an alternative vision of the economy. It is chaired by François-Michel Lambert.

He starts from the premise that the linear economic system that is "extract, produce, consume and throw is out of breath. It is now widely recognized that economic model based on a strong dependence on raw materials are becoming scarce and more difficult to extract in one hand, and the development of consumer non-durables - which obsolescence is sometimes planned - on the other hand, impacts our environment in the broadest sense. This model impact the environment and the people who migrate are sometimes under heavy pollution. The circular economy is pragmatic, because the concepts of recycling and regeneration and alter-growth are the foundation of circular economy.

At the ideological level, extensive consumption, reduced product life cycles and the relocation of production are central to the debate. Usage and consumption are also redesigned, including the concept of ownership. The idea is not to share or collectives of the properties but to think in terms of "a well-differentiated uses." Example is taken from the washing machine: the advantage of being owned by such a machine is zero, but its usefulness is high. The circular economy is unifying as it aims to "unite and involve all stakeholders and experts in a collaborative approach by pooling resources to conduct collective thinking."

U.S. monetary policy brings down the Indian rupee?

The Indian currency has again reached a record low on Tuesday. Like other developing countries, it suffers including expectations of investors who expect a shift from the Fed. The Indian giant shuddered. With the collapse of its currency, returns the specter of a crisis it had known early in 1991. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had himself risen, claiming that this new crisis was not of the same order. Moreover, the crisis of the rupee displays India is experiencing a slowdown - albeit relative - its growth. In this context, the question of advancing the general elections before the month of May 2014 was again discussed among the members of the Indian political class. How to explain this monetary crisis going to translate into political crisis? The Indian currency Monday reached its lowest level. On Tuesday, the dollar traded as against Rs 64.11 earlier in the day. The day before, she had gone through the floor dropping to 63.22 rupees to the dollar. More broadly, in two years, the country's currency has lost more than 40% of its value since July 2013. Main reasons given by most analysts: the fear of expected monetary tightening of U.S.

 The impact of a possible end of the buyback of bonds by the Fed is already being felt in the last two months. Capital hesitates between the United States and emerging countries. When the shift in U.S. monetary policy was announced, the capital flows are rerouted to the dollar. The Indian stock market actually costs, “there is still a month; the SENSEX index exceeded 20,000 points," points out the researcher. He thus lost 7% in three days, falling below 18,000 points before rising slightly at the close on Tuesday. In India the deficit of current account is the source of all problems. The deficit amounted to about 4.5 % of gross domestic product, according to a note from the Bureau of Economic Analysis of BNP Paribas. To this must be added a context of relatively slow growth. For the 2012-2013 year, India's central bank has lowered its growth estimate from 5.8% to 5.5%. Well below the 9 % increase in GDP experienced by the country during the previous years.


 In addition, “even in the field of foreign direct investment, we feel a hesitation. Whenever the election is tight, investors may worry about a shift," says economist Center Future Studies and International Information. Faced with this situation, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would have little leeway. This is “very embarrassed because political control of the money supply can have a negative impact on growth and investment. It is therefore obliged to act in short strokes. The RBI has, for example tried to halt the decline of the rupee e.g. preventing imports of gold, limiting to $ 75,000 per year instead of 200,000 the amount that can leave the Indians in the country but also in controlling purchases estates abroad. India is not alone in feeling the effects of investor expectations about the U.S. monetary policy. Other emerging market currencies were also affected, such as the Brazil and Indonesia. Finally, more broadly, the crisis itself could amplify these phenomena. India has no role in driving the region since this has the effect of weakening the economy, there is however a risk of indirect contagion in other emerging countries, especially China.

Network Vulnerability Assessment

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Vulnerability assessment and security should be performed for all information system on regular schedules to safeguard from the risk of cyber crimes which are prevailing in the cyber world. Security threats are a continuous process which needs an ongoing vigilance network monitoring as well and audit processes which may be provided either with imbedded personnel or as an external service. As cyber security provider they offer customizable and comprehensive network suit on security services and technology. They provide current state of the art in network architecture, operating systems and protocols with the help of their experts on board which varies from traditional IT and telecom to SCADA and ICS networks. They are well versed in 1990 vintage computers controlling programs and logic controllers for assembly, legacy systems and operating systems Their team also have vast knowledge and experience on the application of NIST, BERC, CIP, ISA as well as NEI standards with regards to industrial control systems from SCADA and DCS to PLC and LAN WAN networks.

Record low for the Rupee, The Stock Market Collapses!

The IMF said Thursday that economic "vulnerability" of India had recently worsened, while refusing to "speculate" on the possibility of an application for financial assistance in the country. "The combination of large budget deficits and current account balance, the persistence of high inflation and dependence namely capital inflows are the old vulnerabilities that have increased" recently said Gerry Rice, spokesman for the international Monetary Fund. Faced with the prospect of a tightening of U.S. monetary policy, India has seen foreign capital flowing back, plunging the value of its currency against the dollar. On Wednesday, the rupee fell to a record low before recovering Thursday. According to Rice, the deterioration of the Indian economy "clearly affected market confidence" and is a "challenge" to the authorities. "This is also an opportunity for the Government to continue its political efforts on a number of fronts," he said at a press conference in Washington, without giving further details. Wednesday evening, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced it will provide dollars directly to oil companies, via a separate establishment, to calm the volatility in the foreign exchange market. Asked about a possible Indian request for financial assistance, IMF spokesman, however, declined "to speculate." India had appealed to the Fund in 1991 to deal with a crisis in its balance of payments, which measures including the influx of foreign capital.

The European Sovereign Debt Crisis!

The financial crisis of 2007 caused a wide deleveraging among private agents developed and pushed the savings rate to rise, tipping the global economy into recession. Governments and central banks then intervened to prevent the collapse of the banking system and relaxed their cyclical policies to restore aggregate demand. The economic slowdown and the reaction of the public authorities have widened sharply public deficits, even though levels of public debt in the developed countries were already considered excessively high. This further deterioration of public finances has raised serious concerns about the ability of states to maintain their debt on a sustainable path. This is especially the countries of the euro zone that have crystallized concerns. Greece between the budget crisis in autumn 2009, and the sovereign bond yields rise sharply in Spain, Italy and Portugal in late 2010. Thus, interest rates, which had been a convergence in the past ten years with the European integration, begin to diverge, market making clear the distinction between state-member groups: on the one hand, those the "periphery" undergoing unsustainable increase in sovereign risk and on the other, those "core" that benefit from historically low interest rates. Countries experiencing the strongest market turmoil in sovereign debt have increased the fiscal austerity measures to restore confidence and reduce sovereign spreads.

 Other Member States have also adopted fiscal consolidation efforts to contain the contagion and prevent their own solvency are in doubt. In some countries, the change in sovereign risk premiums can however hardly be explained by changes in economic. If the debt and the deficit actually reached unsustainable levels in Greece, the fiscal situation in other countries threatened by the debt crisis was not more disastrous than that of the United States or the United Kingdom. In 2009, Spain respected the main Maastricht criteria for fiscal policy, since its public debt represented less than 60% of GDP. Italy certainly requires a budget adjustment to service its debt, but it should make the effort appeared modest as interest rates remained at a low level. Several authors have developed the idea that the sovereign debt crises, particularly the European countries could result from self-fulfilling expectations. In other words, the sustainability of public debt does not only depend on fundamentals (including the amount of the debt, the primary balance, etc. When investors fear for one reason or another the state has difficulties to cope with the burden of debt, they divest their sovereign bonds. These sales push interest rates higher and then the government could more be able to refinance its debt other than prohibitive rates. The liquidity crisis can then quickly degenerate into a solvency crisis. Indeed, the states will try to consolidate their public finances to restore market confidence. If the economy were initially in recession, austerity measures further depress activity, so they are likely to lead to a further increase in the debt to GDP ratio. With rising interest rates and contraction, states are finally forced to default on their debt. Thus, a State may become insolvent simply because investors fear default. They act indeed in such a way that the probability of default rises, even if their concerns were initially unfounded. If it happens, the default validates initial fears: expectations are proven "self-fulfilling." Ultimately, public debt is sustainable as creditors consider it as such. The economic literature formalizes this idea by emphasizing the existence of multiple equilibrium. These are particularly unstable in the presence of self-fulfilling expectations: a simple reversal of expectations is likely to tip the economy a good balance bad. However, a State may in principle difficult to use the central bank to reduce the risk of a liquidity crisis.

 Therefore, the member countries of the euro area, in essence, a greater chance to experience a crisis of sovereign debt that countries into debt in their own currency, even if they have more degraded public finances. The member states of the monetary union can indeed rely on a central bank to provide liquidity if it is missing. As such, they share the same vulnerability to crises of sovereign debt that developing countries that emit denominated in a foreign currency usually the U.S. dollar debt. When a liquidity crisis occurs in a monetary union, countries that lose market confidence the peripheral euro area countries meet in a bad equilibrium characterized by high interest rates and capital flight, as investors seek safer investments in the world. These countries are then capable of falling into recession as the high interest rates encourage their government to implement austerity plans. Conversely, countries that retain the confidence of the bond the core countries are maintained in a good balance: they receive cash flows from the periphery. These inflows exert a downward pressure on their interest rates and thus stimulate the economy. They find that increases in risk premiums that were observed in 2010 and 2011 occurred independently of changes in the ratio of public debt to GDP. Greece, however, is an exception, since the increase in the spread on its debt actually due to the deterioration of public finances. By cons, countries that do not belong to a currency area and that borrow in their own currency appear immunized against liquidity crises. They have indeed crossed the Great Recession without knowing a significant increase in their spread, even though some of them had ratios of public debt to GDP higher than in the euro area. .

So finally endorsing its role as lender of last resort to the States, the ECB seems to have managed to "break" the expectations and bring savings to a good balance. The announcement also seems to have been credible enough that the central bank did not have far to intervene in bond markets to stabilize interest rates. Since the crisis of sovereign debt in the euro zone is mainly due to the self-fulfilling expectations, the reaction of fiscal authorities appear absurd, dictated only by the emergency. The turmoil in the bond markets led all governments of the euro area to focus on fiscal consolidation at the expense of supporting the activity. While the public sector should continue spending to allow private agents to reduce debt, otherwise he immediately sought to consolidate its own balance sheet, which was subjected to powerful euro zone recessionary pressures.

Countries that have experienced the largest increases in spreads have implemented the most severe austerity measures. They then switched to a vicious spiral where the contraction and deterioration of the fiscal balance are mutually maintained. However, if there is a disconnection between risk premiums and the fundamentals, a policy aimed exclusively at improving fundamentals that is to reduce the burden of public debt may not be sufficient to contain the spread. The intervention of the ECB is against proved crucial in stabilizing the bond markets. Thus, not only the macroeconomic shock therapy that have inflicted the peripheral countries is very vain, but it has mostly contributed to the deterioration in public finances deteriorate the growth potential of their economies. However, economic growth is a key factor in the sustainability of public finances. The ECB intervention has certainly reduced the risk of self-fulfilling expectations, but the fundamentals are perhaps now sufficiently weakened that fears about the solvency of public finances are now justified.

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Liquidity Trap

During the Great Recession, many central banks reduced their interest rates to historically low levels. However, the interest rate was good to be its zero point, it remained higher than the natural rate, that is to say, the nominal interest rate which closes the output gap and ensure price stability. However, once the zero lower bound is reached, the central bank may further cut its key interest rate, which exposes the economy to deflationary pressures and an increase in its unemployment rate. In such a situation called liquidity trap, where monetary policy is proving excessively restrictive fiscal authorities must necessarily intervene to counteract deflationary pressures. The finance managers adopt their next steps "unconventional" to make them more effective monetary policy. However, the Great Recession is different from previous episodes of liquidity trap, including the lost decade in Japan, that the phenomenon of liquidity trap this time has a global dimension. The United States, UK and the other Euro countries are the countries most closely linked by trade and financial linkages that have experienced the largest slowdown in crisis, bringing their monetary authorities to fix the interest rate to the nearest zero.
According to famous Economist, the appearance of liquidity traps in a context where markets for goods, services and capital are integrated internationally gives a new dimension to the dilemma highlighted by the literature in finance International (also called "impossible trinity" or "impossible trinity"). The traditional interpretation of this phenomenon, a country cannot simultaneously ensure the opening of capital markets, fixed exchange rates and monetary policy autonomy. If achieved two goals, the third becomes unattainable. However, even if the exchange rate is flexible and fully opens capital markets, monetary policy loses its effectiveness in a liquidity trap. If the domestic economy is a powerful external shock depressing domestic demand, the zero lower bound is likely to constrain its own monetary policy. Financial markets play a key role in the spread of the phenomenon of liquidity trap a country to another.
The economic literature have suggested that the introduction of capital controls to reduce the risk that a country will suffer destabilizing capital inflows: inflows are indeed likely to fuel an unsustainable credit expansion, the formation of bubbles assets and excessive currency appreciation, especially in emerging countries. The introduction of capital controls makes monetary policy more effective in reducing the risk that the economy switches into a liquidity trap.

Business Line of Credit

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 They offer customized programs to fit every business needs which are convenient for their clients. The procedure of applying for funding services is a simple process wherein the client needs to furnish the desired details at the site in order to avail the same. On receiving the details, they get to work in providing their clients with the business finances they are in need of. They strive to provide their clients with all their financial needs conveniently with ease in order to help business units to overcome unstable situation which may be due to lack of finances. Lenders can look forward to the provider in seeking the desired financing to either restore or improve a business, made available to them that are flexible, fast and dependable with the purpose of helping business owners to get back on their feet in difficult situations.

Aggressive stimulus efforts by Abe given strong boost to Japan

The expected increase of 3.6% after 4.1% annualized GDP and the private consumption expected to have risen 0.5% Reversal expected business investment. The growth of the Japanese economy is expected to reach 3.6% annualized in April-June, a Reuters survey showed a third consecutive quarter of expansion that would reflect the impact of increasing net policies "reflationary" Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The figure released on Monday morning in Tokyo should also strengthen the government's desire to raise the VAT next year, even if the implementation of this project politically sensitive involves many other factors, economists note. The second quarter should certainly have marked a slight slowdown in growth after the 4.1% annualized from January to March, driven mainly by household consumption, but the April-June statistics should show a recovery in exports and business investment, they add. "The growth is balanced with a strong domestic demand and external demand. This is a sign that the impact of political Abe is becoming wider," said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. Compared to the first quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have risen 0.9% in April-June, foreign demand are contributing 0.2 shows the Reuters survey.

Private consumption is expected to grow by 0.5% a quarter to the next, which would mark a slowdown after growth of 0.9% in January-March. But business investment, which fell by 0.3% in the first three months of the year, is expected to rebound by 0.7%. Abe's government plans to raise the VAT rate of 5% to 8% in April and 10% in October 2015, as part of efforts to try to contain the public debt, which exceeds 200% of GDP, the highest ratio of the major industrialized countries. This doubling in a year and a half, which is the most ambitious reform of the Japanese taxation engaged for decades, obviously poses risks to the consumer and more broadly for the recovery, as it may curb spending. Abe said he would adopt in the fall a final decision on the matter, in particular according to the changing conditions. Until then, it will be especially aware of the revised second quarter GDP, which is scheduled for publication on September 9. A Reuters survey shows that most private sector economists are in favor of raising the VAT according to the original schedule, considering that the economy can now absorb the impact.

On Monday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has called Tokyo to implement the project, considering it was a "necessary first step" to solve the fiscal problems of Japan. But even if GDP figures are as strong as expected and confirmed next month, Shinzo Abe will take a decision after studying the findings of several studies it has commissioned on the expected impact of the reform explain several sources. Careful, the prime minister also asked his staff to consider alternatives to this reform. "A good GDP figures could reinforce the scenario of a VAT increase in the initial project. But the final decision rests with Abe and he alone, “said Yoshiki Shinke. "It will be more important than past GDP figures is how the economy will react if VAT increases indeed. At this stage, it is very difficult to predict."

Strong and sustainable growth for the luxury industry in Asia!

Asia as a whole is the heaven for the future of luxury industries more than ever. According to the economist’s views the economic crisis has little effect in the luxury industry throughout the world. For one simple reason: in the crisis, the poor get poorer, but the rich get richer, and the consumption of products they love increases because they have more resources to buy them, while general consumption stagnates or declines. In Europe, sales of luxury goods is expected to increase by more than 6% in 2013, while overall consumption stagnates, the United States will increase by more than 9% worldwide, 10% alone in Asia, excluding China and Japan, the increase in the sale of luxury goods is expected to be 15% and China at 20%, well beyond the expected GDP growth of 7%. This amazing forecast of 20% growth for luxury goods in China was announced on June 11 in Hong Kong by an luxury goods analyst at HSBC bank, in a speech entitled "The influence of China emerging market for luxury goods in Asia, "the French Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong. Asia, excluding China and Japan, is currently the site of half the growth of sales of luxury goods in the world. The Chinese take an even more important in this area. 75% of revenues from the sale of luxury goods in Hong Kong and Macau are made by mainland Chinese. They are more likely to make the trip to Hong Kong and Macao, as well as Taiwan and Singapore, where they buy luxury goods. When a Chinese travel abroad, he spends an average of 875 Euros in products like branded watches and wine for men, jewelry and readymade garments for women.. No doubt he will reckon with the effect of campaigns by the Chinese authorities against corruption and for a lifestyle of modest appearance. But it seems that for the time being, this effect is limited to only a little lower the price level of goods bought - a watch 4 000 and not more than 10 000 - and especially to moderate the exhibition luxury. The affluent Chinese still want luxury, but a more discreet luxury. To say that the Europe has its part to play in this game and she plays so well. It is further necessary that the luxury industries are not disabled by retaliation against the Customs anti-dumping measures against Chinese solar panels.

The Future Economic Rebalancing Of The World

In 2017, no European country will be included in the top ten contributors to global economic growth. The emerging economies will account for fifty percent of global production of goods and services. According to IMF, in the year 2018 the proportion will increase to 55%. And this is only the continuation of a trend that began there more than thirty years and represents a consolidation in the global economic consequences. As noted by the chief economist of Goldman Sachs who invented the concept and acronym BRIC's in the 1980s when the growth of the Chinese economy was even more important today, a growth rate of China's economy 10% was less important to the world that U.S. growth by 1%. In 2013, the rates of equivalence are 8% and 4%. Today, financial markets are equally concerned of China slowdown as the U.S. recovery. No wonder that, as growth in emerging was much stronger than the rest of the world, and that their standard of living per capita has steadily catching up with the seven most industrialized countries. By the mid-1990s, countries such as Germany and Italy had dropped from the list of top ten countries with the highest growth rates. While in the 1980s, the United States accounted for 30% of global growth and Europe 20%; in 2017 no European country will included in the top ten contributors to global growth. Europe as a whole no longer and will contribute only 6% of it, while India and China will contribute to almost 50%. Even more surprising is the speed at which occurs rebalancing and this because of the masses in. The economic transformation and urbanization of China occur at a scale with the population is one hundred times greater than that of Great Britain at its early industrialization and a speed ten times. Thus the Chinese momentum is 1000 times that of Britain 200 years ago. This rebalancing is a return to the state of the world that existed in the early nineteenth century. But this is only small consolation because it is perceived as a stall and undoubtedly contributes to the gloom in US, as in the rest of Europe.

China takes control of its Currency

The Chinese government has recently reaffirmed its commitment to lead a prudent monetary policy. A message was signaled to all banks and other Chinese companies and foreign business partners. After a recent meeting, the Chinese government issued a statement which reads: "China will continue its prudent monetary policy in ensuring growth of credit to the real economy, the agricultural sector and small businesses." "Will continue", says the text, and in fact, the direction is not new. Publicly adopted in 2010, it is associated with a budget "proactive" policy, in force since 2008. On the issue of the exchange rate of the Yuan, the Chinese government encourages the continuation of the current rate "to a basically stable level." So if the Yuan is revalued, it will be a movement of low amplitude. Already at the end of last year, the new administration had announced their resolution to "expand wisely the amount of social financing to ensure a moderate emissions growth of loans." The Chinese economy is facing a double challenge: The first and foremost one is to maintain a growth rate of around 7% to ensure the increase of the population's standard of living and inflation under control, and the second one is to set right their export market which was seriously damaged by the European debt crisis which considerably reduced its export markets. To answer the western financial crisis, the Chinese launched in 2008, a multi-year recovery plan 4000 billion Yuan. They slowed and the slowdown the growth of their economy, but still fear that the financial crisis in their main customers being turned into an economic crisis, if the growth rate falls more below. The temptation is strong in these conditions, increasing the money supply. They have repeatedly reduced the benchmark interest rates and reserve requirements for commercial banks. But then tip the risk of inflation, which is not only a malfunction of the economy, but also the source of popular discontent, and thus a political danger. This is why banks are expected to deal with the "real economy", rather than seeking sources of short-term profit, spontaneous tendency of any financial institution. In this framework, they will be encouraged to provide loans. They will not be to fuel property speculation. The message is clear to European countries that China needs to export; it has no incentive to engage in any trade war. But it will remain master of its currency.

China facing a new threat of credit crunch!

Almost all the economists alarmed an increase in risk every day to see a new burst in credit bubble in Asia and now things seems to be clear now. The rating agency Fitch indicates that such event without precedent in the history of the modern world could burst in China. The Tribune does not beat around the bush; and citing a threat of a credit crunch. We have discussed these things already on various times. The occurrence of this new credit crisis may in turn be hit hardly soon. The main resources for these happening are the excessive growth of bank loans to the private sector and the loans outside the formal sectors etc which lend in turn more difficult to repay by the borrower. On Friday, the Chinese interbank rates showed a sharp decline, the refinancing rate to seven days - part of the cost of interbank lending - dropping from 11.62% to 8.33%, such a move could not be obtained thanks to rumors suggesting that the PBOC (the Central Bank of China) was pressure to release the donor funds, or it can intervene directly. Earlier, panic had seized the Chinese interbank market, the benchmark rate to a record high at 13.91%. In the end, according to Bloomberg, 50 billion Yuan (about 6.15 billion Euros) were injected into the market by the central bank. The situation with less tense will prevail in recent weeks and it will continue, and the worst is still to be feared to come out. Leading analysts consider that the PBOC should maintain its policy to severely restricting access to credit for businesses and individuals. Reasons behind this are; it will help to restrict the high level of bad loans held by Chinese banks. A context is that investors fear that banks are facing difficulties increasingly strong to refinance. During the past two weeks, the rate of refinancing had indeed soared, the Chinese Central Bank stopping the injection of liquidity, despite the economic downturn. A measure which provoked a strong restriction of access to credit, draping the exchanges while blocking the lending capacity of banks. Monetary authorities and Chinese policies now want to end the very rapid credit growth in recent years. It is true that there is an emergency, leading institutions in the viewfinder smaller banks, which have increased their loans while speculating heavily. A situation that pushes the government to "clean up" the banking market, closing the valve to riskier institutions, a policy may lead some to bankruptcy. Another worrying and not least: in May, a report released by the rating agency Moody indicated that informal lending outside the banking sector in China had increased by almost 70% over the past two years ... representative now the equivalent of 55% of gross domestic product (GDP). Financial products of the informal sector amounted at the end 2012 to 29,000 Yuan (3,600 billion Euros), according to preliminary calculations by Moody's. A narrower definition of the sector excluding loans fiduciary obligations and asset-backed companies, the informal sector would weigh only 21000 billion Yuan, but still 39% of GDP. The Moody's report indicated that parallel "informal banking sector could have a leverage effect on the finances of the wider economy and amplify fears of a credit bubble. The rating agency felt that the rapid growth of informal loans increased risks to the banking system and the Chinese economy as a whole. "Given the sheer size and growth of informal banking in China, we doubt the ability of banks to guard against a significant increase in defaults" in this area, yet warned by Moody's. In March, the Banking Regulatory Commission noted that it had ordered banks to control the funds asset management more closely in order to contain the risk and increase transparency. According to Fitch, Chinese banks have somehow hidden in a second parallel balance the equivalent of 2 billion loan mechanism to circumvent the official boundaries and new regulations put in place to curb the excesses. Practices that cause the bursting of a credit bubble. Because, according to Fitch, half of the loans must be renewed every three months and hence forth at least in less than six months. According to Charlene Chu, senior director of Fitch in Beijing, "The country has duplicated the entire U.S. commercial banking system in five years." Adding that the credit is increased from 9 000 to 23 000 billion dollars since the collapse of Lehman Brothers. "All this is far worse than anything we could know before in a major economy. We do not know what will happen. The next six months will be crucial, "said Chu also. For her, "the model of growth based on credit is clearly exploding. This could fuel a massive crisis of over-capacity, and potentially a Japanese-style deflation. " According to Wei Yao of Society General, the debt level of Chinese enterprises has reached the threshold of 30% of GDP, the threshold is nothing but a typical of financial crises.

The Gold Prices Falling Because of the Fed

The Federal Reserve has brought down the price of gold this week as investors reacted to the announcement of the U.S. central bank, suggesting that it would progressively restrict its extraordinary support measures to U.S. economy. The ounce of gold and has tumbled nearly $ 100 in the space of a week, from Thursday even below the threshold of 1300 dollars. This is something that had not seen for nearly three years. Friday, the price reaches $ 1295.45, which is its lowest level since mid-September 2010. Perverse effect of supportive policies, the Fed now considers the views of official figures, the economic recovery appears to begin in the United States no longer justifies the pace with which it buys Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. These are the operations that are currently around 85 billion Euros per month. However, the withdrawal of these liquidity injections, which dilutes the value of the dollar, greatly reduces investor concerns about a possible resurgence of inflation. Thereby making the purchase of precious metals such as gold is much less attractive. The barbarous relic while losing its safe haven qualities, strengths as a bulwark against the rising prices are having so little appeal.

Some analysts believe that gold is now in a vicious circle, the decline in encouraging investors to liquidate ETF (investment funds backed by physical gold stocks). Thus, the most important of these funds, has seen its shares fall below 1,000 tons of gold this week. However, these new gold ETF disbursements weigh themselves on courses, racing somehow the machine. Meanwhile, physical demand is affected by the measures taken by the Indian government. The authorities have indeed raised the customs duties on the yellow metal, while the rupee is at a record low against the dollar. Now, gold imports will be allowed only for purposes of jewelry making. In addition, importers must now pay for their purchases in cash, without payment facility. India believes that these imports represent a significant portion of its current account deficit. A policy should reduce gold imports during the month of June, while India is the world's largest consumer of the precious metal. Finally, on the London Bullion Market, an ounce of gold finished at $ 1,295.25 at auction Friday night, against 1391.25 dollars at the end of last week.

The Corporate Bankruptcies and The Crisis

The real crisis, the corporate bankruptcies are the real crisis and it is the creative destruction. Like it or not, the real victims of the crisis in Europe are definitely businesses. The loss of business in the Euro zone increase indeed 21% in 2013, to return to a growth rate moderate 7% in 2014. These bankruptcies are concerned and unfortunately synonymous with soaring unemployment and a real deindustrialization. Since the record figures of 2009, the waves of loss, of the United States to China, passing throughout the Europe, concentrated in areas with erratic tax incentives, such as construction and services. Once the boost is flown, numbers of companies were no longer profitable. Today, the shock wave is more fundamental: the sharp slowdown in consumer spending in Europe, or at half the exports for Asia. In Europe, the areas of distribution, furniture, consumer electronics, and automotive, and are strongly affected. This industrial Darwinism seems to be the swell of the year 2013, still marked by the credit crunch. But the induced effects are numerous: for example in Asia, companies see their market melt like snow in the sun and the overcapacity problem. This economic turbulence with a number of businesses created which also increases in many countries could it is a synonym for renewal? Economic entropy can be conducive to a new beginning, if we are to believe the evolutionary hypothesis of Schumpeter. The undertakings least well adapted and especially the least innovative way to let those who are reinventing themselves and meet new needs. "The perennial gale" Schumpeter, after the storm of 2009 and the economic winter it starts to make a lot. And yet ... The needs are there, in sectors with high added value, intensive skills, human capital and social capital, driven by research and innovation and entrepreneurship. So, of course the news is bad with soaring business failures and accelerated payment risk, while margins are already weakened. But, is it better to jump back? The answer is “Maybe”. It is also necessary that the guidelines are taken on supporting innovation, the business environment, or incentives to take care of seedlings, otherwise incubators will also be decimated.

After Gold Bubble Burst!

The soaring price of gold in recent years in early 2009 it was $800 and it reached more than 1900 dollars an ounce in fall 2011 - had all the characteristics of a bubble. And now, like any soaring prices of disconnected assets fundamentals of supply and demand, this gold bubble deflates. At the height of the outbreak, mad gold - a paranoid mixture of investors and others whose political agenda is determined by fear - happily predicted the price of gold on the order of 2000, 3000 or even 5000 dollars an ounce within the next few years. But the price has been declining since. In April, gold was at about $ 1,300 an ounce - and its price continues to trade under 1400 dollars, a drop of nearly 30% from its 2011 high. Many reasons can explain the bubble burst, and why the price of gold will probably fall further to stabilize at around $ 1,000 an ounce in 2015. First, the price of gold tends to buckle when serious economic, financial risks, and geopolitical threat to the global economy. During the global financial crisis, even the safety of bank deposits and government bonds was doubted by some investors. If there is concern of a financial Armageddon, it really is time metaphorically in his bunker to store weapons, ammunition, canned and gold bullion. But even in this terrible scenario, gold would be a poor investment. Indeed, at the height of the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, gold prices have collapsed several times. In an acute credit crunch, leverage purchases of forced sales or leads, because any price correction triggers margin calls. Gold can be very volatile - up or down - at the height of a crisis. Secondly, gold performs better when there is a risk of high inflation, insofar as its popularity as a store of value increases. But despite an aggressive monetary policy by many central banks - successive rounds of quantitative easing have doubled and even tripled the money supply in most advanced economies - the overall inflation is still low and steady decline.

 The reason is simple: when the monetary base explodes, the velocity of money slows as a result of the accumulation of liquidity by banks as excess reserves. The reduction of public and private debt keeps growing global demand below that of the offer. Companies therefore have little flexibility in their pricing because of too much capacity, and the bargaining power of workers is reduced due to high unemployment. In addition, with power increasingly weakened union, globalization has led to a cheap production of goods with high labor in China and other emerging markets, undermining the wages and employment prospects of workers unskilled workers in advanced economies. With low wage inflation, it is unlikely that there has been a steep rise in property. However, inflation fell even more today because of the overall downward adjustment of commodity prices in response to weak global growth. And gold follows the actual and expected decline in inflation. Third, unlike other assets, gold yields no income. While publicly traded stocks pay dividends, bonds have their coupons, and houses, rents, or are just a game of capital appreciation. Now that the global economy recovers, other assets - listed real estate or even the resurgent shares - now give better yields. Indeed, U.S. and global equities listed are far better than gold since the sharp increase of its course in early 2009. Fourth, the price of gold rose sharply when the real interest rate (adjusted for inflation) became negative after the various rounds of quantitative easing. The time to buy gold is when actual returns on cash and bonds are negative and declining. But the best prospects in the U.S. and global economies imply a term exit quantitative easing and zero interest rates from the Federal Reserve and other central banks, which means that real interest rates will rise rather than drops. Fifth, some have argued that the heavily indebted sovereigns would encourage investors to turn to gold because of the risks borne by the bonds. But there is an opposite situation. A large number of heavily indebted governments have substantial gold reserves which they may decide to get rid of to reduce their debts. In fact, the information that Cyprus planned to sell a small fraction - about 400 million Euros ($ 520 million) - its gold reserves led to a fall in the price of gold by 13% in April. Countries like Italy; which have massive gold reserves (over $ 130 billion), might also be tempted to do so, which would lead to a further decline in the price.

Sixth, some ultra-conservatives, especially in the United States, have so encouraged the gold rush that the effect was counterproductive. For this right-wing fringe, gold is the best hedge against the risk posed by the government conspiracy to expropriate private wealth. These fanatics also believe that a return to the system of the gold standard is inevitable, since the hyperinflation drift "devaluation" of paper money by the central banks. But in the absence of any conspiracy, and given the decline in inflation and the inability to use gold as a currency, such arguments are not valid. A currency serves three functions: it is a means of payment, unit of account and a store of value. Gold can be a store of value, but it is not a payment, you cannot use it to pay his races. It is not a unit of account the prices of goods and services, and those financial assets are denominated in gold. Gold remains so this "barbarous relic" by John Maynard Keynes, with no intrinsic value and mainly used as a safe haven against fear and panic largely irrational. Yes, all investors should have a very small share of gold in their portfolios as a hedge against extreme risks. But other real assets can be comparable coverage and extreme risk - although still present - are definitely lower than they were at the height of the global financial crisis. Even though the price of gold is likely to rise in the coming years, it will remain very volatile and will decline over time, over the improvement of the global economy. The gold rush is over.

More About Financial Bubbles

But why economic agents do not learn a lesson from history and what is the origin of the observed market euphoria? It should actually wonder more generally about the rationality of agents. By their individual actions, they participate in effect to create a gap between the actual value of a thing and its market value. And this gap increases; more the bursting of the bubble is near, even if the term is unknown. This process can be summarized by the metaphor of the beauty contest Keynes in Chapter 12 of the General Theory. So imagine that you are in a competition against a host of other competitors. You are facing a hundred photos of girls all equally charming as the other, and you are asked to select six, the six prettiest. The person whose choice is closest to the average choice (that is to say the girls who got the most votes) will be the winner of this competition and win the jackpot. Three techniques are available to you and to win. First, you choose a simple, even naive strategy, which is to choose the six most beautiful girls according to your standards of beauty. But you can also adopt a strategy. which is more vicious this time to copy your selection on the other competitors with your expectations. Finally, you say that there is no reason for you to be the one to embrace the second strategy you determine an ultimate, which includes the fact that each competitor will not only formulate expectations about choice other participants, but also on your own. The metaphor of beauty contests and shows that speculation is mainly due to expectations that each agent makes about the behavior of other agents. Worse, it seems rational to participate in this type of competition because there is a real jackpot game now apply this reasoning to any other market (financial, real estate or even tulips) and you now understand that when Prices are disconnected from reality is that economic agents engaged in a competition of beauty contests guy and that large batches are obviously involved other words, do not enter a speculative market generates a cost (opportunity) that corresponds to the potential gain that you would not have achieved; corollary, it is rational to participate in inflating a bubble in order to enrich themselves, knowing that sooner or later the bubble will explode . If the game mirrors expectations promote the creation of speculative bubbles, it should be noted that favorable market conditions may also participate in this movement. Thus, over the last ten years, it is interesting to note that each period of financial euphoria is a situation of low interest rates and abundant liquidity. Thus to extinguish the fire of the Internet bubble of the early naughtier, the Federal Reserve has made successive rate cuts that have led to a rise in private debt and the emergence of a real estate bubble The subprime; Belated. Again, the response of central bankers involved in the reduction rates that, this time, encouraged the public debt; replete. And since it seems that we are now cured syndrome "this time is different" (Reinhart and Rogoff), the current historically low interest rates could facilitate the emergence of a new bubble. What will be the nature of the next big crisis? An early response, rather obvious, is of the bond market, when many experts welcome historically low borrowing rates, especially for states but also for corporate, bond bubble continues to swell to form a time bomb. And if some commentators are trying to alert the markets inevitable future rise in interest rates, the warnings remain almost unnoticed as the general euphoria is great. But other risk factors may also be highlighted. Real overheating in China, seven-fold during the decade gold bubble carbon and financing of energy transition and finally growing attraction for bit coin. Yes, this totally paperless currency created in 2009 by a computer meeting the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, who was at the center of media talks some time ago, due to the sudden surge in its course and all its fall brutal. At its inception, the parity bit coin stood indeed one thousandth of a dollar before reaching on April 10 to a high of 266 dollars, then lose in just a few days over 70% of its value to pass under the below 80 dollars. All bubbles eventually burst and one day or the other. But the man never lacks imagination to always find a new source of enrichment. And when he is not at the origin, it adopts a mimetic behavior that allows him to achieve his goal. This process can really be repeated ad infinitum? Or, maybe it does not itself amount to a giant bubble that would only swell for centuries?

The Financial Bubbles Happened In The Past! -1

What is the common point between the Asian crisis of 1997, the Internet crisis of 2001, the subprime crisis in 2008, the sovereign debt crisis of 2010 and what will be the next financial and economic crisis? They all originate from the bursting of a speculative bubble. This phenomenon of artificial inflation of prices though not new, for more than three centuries actually, economic agents know that trees do not grow to the sky. And yet they are still surprised when a bubble bursts. It all began in the late sixteenth century, when Dutch traders introduced in the country of tulips from Turkey. New, rare and unlikely mix of colors, a combination which gave very quickly tulip flowers to have high value relative to many other flowers that were the kingdom. Tulip and gradually became a luxury item particularly popular with the wealthy but also by the Dutch bourgeoisie. Finally freed from Spanish rule, the latter had indeed reaped significant benefits from trade with Asia, not hesitating to build large houses surrounded by flower gardens particularly with tulips. For almost forty years, the price of tulip flowers then continued to grow at a moderate pace at first, then more sustained from the 1630s rhythm, and in 1635 it took an average of 2,500 florins to buy a tulip flowers,to a greater cost of 25 750 euro( as the value of 2002 ,if we are to believe the calculations of the International Institute of Social History). The price of tulip flowers reached its peak in 1636, the same year; parliament actually discussed a project on the transformation of the nature of the contracts that would become the purchasing options and not obligations which is a windfall for speculators. Thus says at the beginning of year 1637, a tulip flowers could be traded on the futures market against the equivalent of three paintings by Rembrandt, or ten times the annual salary of a skilled craftsman, or against a field of five acres ... data often from pamphlets of the time which it is impossible to verify the accuracy.

One thing is for sure though; the price of tulip flowers was abnormally high. Especially when we know that the color intensity of the flower was actually linked to a mosaic virus of the flower. Finally, in February 1637 that the euphoria ended and the prices of futures fall sharply, marking the end of speculation, understand the "trade wind." The tulip mania and was one of the first bubbles in economic history. It also marked the beginning of a long list of other bubbles - Crash of 1720 following speculation on the South Sea Company, crash of Vienna in 1873 due to soaring property prices in Paris Berlin and Vienna stock market crashes of 1929 and 1987 and, more recently, the subprime crisis - causes and consequences substantially similar. A mass hysteria and the rapid enrichment of people’s misunderstanding one another, movements of brutal impoverishment and bankruptcy.

The need of better integration in environmental criteria in investment!

Banks have become essential in the transition to a greener and more sustainable economy. If their role in financing green infrastructure and renewable energy is identified, their efforts should also focus on the integration of environmental criteria in their funding decisions and investment, primarily in sensitive areas and eventually in all sectors. The 2008 crisis revealed the considerable power to influence of banks on the economy. Respondents even criticized, they undergo a double injunction to continue to finance the economy in all its complexity while being more transparent. Their indirect responsibility is increasingly sought: external stakeholders like customers, shareholders, institutional investors and NGOs), the challenge of repeatedly on the assets they finance and the behavior of large customers they accompany their development. Beyond all controversy, it has become imperative for them to be able to explain their decisions to finance and investment. How can banks now tackle the challenge of meeting the ever increasing global needs while encouraging the development of a production of "sustainable"? To meet this dual standby, banks must gradually integrate Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) in all funding decisions and investment. The goal is to better understand the potential risks to better identify projects for funding, companies in which to invest, and the most sensitive regions. Their inclusion will progressively as they are both away from the heart of business of the bank (financial risk analysis), long-term and with a low probability of occurrence but maximum impact if realized. The most sensitive to environmental or social terms economic sectors must be supervised by funding policies and responsible investment that apply to all products and services, including asset management. In a little over a year, our group has worked on the areas of palm oil, nuclear, agricultural raw materials essential to the pulp and paper and finally the electricity produced from Coal. These are very heavy projects: each policy requires six months of work on average. All stakeholders are consulted to help position the criteria ambitious enough to have a real impact on the environment and society, but also to ensure realistic level their implementation. Finally, these policies should identify the most critical links in the production chain. Of course, all companies must comply with the existing laws in the field of the environment, but they must also be transparent by providing certain information, to assess the management of their risks on this subject. A thorough analysis of the specific risks of each sector is then used to define performance criteria that companies and / or Projects must meet. These policies approved by the Executive Committee, have been widely disseminated to all trades. If they respond to a pending trade and managers have accurate prior to any decision making instructions, they nevertheless induce profound changes: it is necessary to train and support unfamiliar teams sometimes certain criteria 'very technical evaluation. They also assume a new type of dialogue with customers or companies in whom we want to invest: beyond financial performance criteria, it is now necessary to address much broader issues. Our philosophy is not to exclude a sector as a whole (except those that are subject to legal prohibitions) but we do not forbid, as a last resort, to exclude companies that do not wish evolve and take into account our policies. The approach taken must and will therefore continue in both applying to other sectors, if necessary by revising existing policies (e.g., nuclear policy could evolve following the stress tests carried out in European level) but also in the declining in specific sectors.

European Commission and Taxing policy on financial transactions!

The European Commission and the European Parliament are to authorize the implementation of an enhanced cooperation procedure between 11 Member States to implement a tax on financial transactions. The contours of the project are summarized below.

 EFSM: European Financial Stability Mechanism, EFSF: European Financial Stability Facility, Financial institutions: credit institutions, investment firms, organized markets, insurance companies, asset management companies, pension funds, holding companies, leasing, securitization vehicles. The expected charges is 0.1% for cash instruments and 0.01% for derivatives. The scope includes the "financial markets" broadly, carefully avoiding the financing of the real economy through the exclusion of the primary market and financial products distributed by the retail banking and insurance. However, the purchase and sale of securities by an individual investor will be taxed via the taxation of the financial intermediary through which this negotiation channeled. The project raises vehement reactions from the world of finance. European banks have made their estimates, which showed that the FTT will sign their death warrant. The French associations instead, sent the Minister of economy to measure on the fate of individual financial institutions, but very they are very alarmed about the impact of the tax on the financing of the economy. It is difficult to sort through the flood of objections that can be read at this time. I chose to retain both. The tax applies to the negotiation and not the transfer of ownership. It is true that the presence of intermediaries and clearing induces a succession of transfers of ownership in the post-market cycle.

But such transfers resulted in two orders (purchase and sale) that resulted in an execution. The purchase and sale will be taxed ... 2 times as expected. However, it will not be the same if the negotiation goes through the OTC market, involving broker-dealers who buy the securities for their own account before transferring to their clients. This leads to the second point. The European Commission assumes that the FTT will effectively eliminate altogether certain market activities. This is what emerges from the published 02/14/2013 impact study. Effect on the market for public debt as the primary market is not taxed investments "buy and hold" long-term types will be favored. The implication speculation on debt of countries in the Euro zone, it's over. Effect on the repo market: The overnight repo will be replaced by secured loans (non-taxable). Therefore also exit the repo, considered a particularly opaque part of the "shadow banking" and carrying systemic risk by successive transfers of collateral. Impact on the OTC derivatives market: there too, the Commission expects a significant drop in volumes, without being moved more than that. Effect on market makers, systematic and other proprietary traders internationals: taxation of transactions of all these intermediaries will lead to cascading effects.

These are fully paid and their consequence capture spreads, become unprofitable cease altogether. Finally, one may wonder if there is not in this project a public agenda and calendar, otherwise hidden, the less "discreet." The public agenda was a political component: meet the largely hostile public opinion in the world of finance, and tax issues: generating additional revenue that would help significantly reduce the contribution of the participating States to the EU budget. The hidden agenda is, if not eradication, at least in the drastic limitation of certain activities deemed unnecessary or predatory for the real economy. It is obvious that the realization of this hidden agenda will also have the effect of reducing tax revenues, but this effect appears here, too, assumed perfectly.