Gender Bias in Workspace

Gender bias is a problem faced mainly by the fairer sex in all countries. It is felt less in developed countries like north American Countries and European Countries. But this disparity is much felt in Asian and African countries. In Asian countries, mostly in Muslim countries it is being witnessed much more. This is because of religious and Political reasons. But as the years go by, this disparity is started shrinking in all asian countries.

It is particularly improved in India for the last one decade. The statistics released by the Government of India says it has steadily been improving for the past ten years. The two parameters for the development of Women, Gender development index and Gender Empowerment Measurement have been increasing for the past five years.

This increase in the index shows the improvement of Women in the fields of Politics, Health, literacy, decision making and standard of living. After the boom in IT and Telecom Industry in India, the women participation in this Industry has started increasing. This gives them an opportunity to get salaries as equal as their male counterpart.

Women have occupied some of the top most posts in some of the leading companies in India. The previous records of harassment and sexual violence against women have started declining. Though, it was not completely eradicated, but for sure it is in declining path.

Some of the top posts like president of India, Chairperson of the Lower House, Leader of the ruling Alliance are all occupied by women in India. Though China is little bit advanced in Economic Growth and Military Growth, women disparity has not declined as much as in India. In this area, India is much developed than China.

We hope this disparity would soon be completely disappearing in all Asian Countries.

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Why is Market cyclical in nature?

Many would know that all the free markets, like Stock Market, Commodities Market, Bond Market and etc, behave cyclically. ‘Cyclical’ here means the upside and downside movement of the Market rhythmically between a particular period. We have seen Gold markets move up during the time Stock Markets come down. This is one type of cycle in the Market when one comes down, one goes up. When Stock Markets move up, the interest rates would go up.

Why are these cycles occurring in the Markets? Let me explain the internal dynamics of these cycles. We all know that any Market exists because of the demand and supply for that asset. Let us start from a bear Market bottom of an asset. Let us assume here that the asset being Stocks. During the bottoms the demand for that particular asset would be less and the supply for the asset would be high. Since supply is more than demand, the stock price would continue its downtrend.

At one particular stage, the supply will be completely observed by the Market. Here, the stocks transfer from the people of weak hands to strong hands. Once again here is a small explanation for weak and strong hands. Those who are well informed about the company with strong financial strength can be termed as strong hand, because he wouldn’t sell the stock even if it comes down further. On the other hand, a weak hand is an Investor, who is not financially strong and not well informed about a company would sell his holdings if the prices decline further.

At this stage, stocks transfer from weak hands to strong hands. The floating stocks of a company would be held by strong hands. So slowly supply stops and demand picks up at a lower price. Now the price difference also plays a crucial role. Since the prices are low now, automatically demand picks up in that stock. At one stage, supply will be overwhelmed by the demand and the prices of the stocks start picking up. This process always takes a time to complete. That is why a cycle is created in the market. This may be of Intraday, or weekly or yearly or decades cycles.

The same process takes place during the bull market peak vice versa to create a cycle. Proper understanding of cycles is very essential for successful investing.

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Technorati Tags: Online,Investments,Bull Market,Bear Market,Market Cycles

Buy the Sell off, Sell the Rally

 

The Stock Mantra of prime importance is, you buy during big sell offs and you sell your securities during rallies. How many really do follow this simple logic in Stock Markets or Commodities Market is a question, even though it is the only way to make money in Stock Markets. Every body knows this logic, but nobody doesn’t follow it.

The Simple reason for that is, the logic is associated with emotions of investing person. During big sell offs, the Investor would go by his heart not by his mind. If you go by mind, then it will show you that this is the right time to invest. If you go by the heart, then the panic created by the big sell off would certainly eat you to make you sell the securities actually at a time when you should be buying it.

So investment decisions in any free Markets should be rational, not irrational. Rational Investors are very few in numbers and they are the winning Investors in the Market. Becoming a rational Investor is not as easy as it looks. You have to keep you emotions under the check during the big market moves and you have to think independently.

If you join the crowd, then you would be sucked into the crowd and you would be part of the crowd and your investing or trading decision would be taken irrationally or emotionally. Always await the crowd during time of taking Investment decisions.

One simple example is, those who have invested in the Stock Markets would have invested their money mostly in IT sectors in any part of the world from 1999 to 2003. Because, the popularity is such that any investor would have invested only in this sector. But this sector never saw a big bull market since then.

Had an investor acted in his own way and though investing in IT sector would not fetch good returns, simply based on the fact, that this Sector is already over Invested, certainly he would have avoided that sector.

So, be rational when it comes to investing.

Technorati Tags: Investments,Trading Tutorial,Investing Tutorials,Crowd behaviour

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Sentiments and Trend reversal in Markets.

We have seen that whenever a market is viewed by all participants as bullish, a trend reversal takes place and turns bearish. Likewise, whenever a market is expected to be bearish by all, it turns bullish against their view.

When Crude oil was trading around 145 USD in 2009, everybody is thinking it will go to 200 USD levels. The Media is bullishly covering Crude oil. Everybody is expecting the demand for the Crude to go up because of growing world Economy. Every Analyst has turned bullish on Crude, but it has turned otherwise. Crude fell from 145 USD to 30 USD within 6 months.

Why is this happening, when everybody is in one view but the Market turns otherwise? Let me explain the internal dynamics in it.

Market movement is influenced by demand and supply. There is always a demand or supply potential for a market. Demand is inversely proportional to Supply. If the participants in a market feel bullish about a particular market, they will start to accumulate the asset. Like this slowly, every participant acquires the asset. In initial stages, the demand potential will be high, but as the time progress and as more number of participants acquires the asset, the demand potential slowly recedes.

But the sentiment in the market will slowly turn bullish, as more number of peoples have already bought the asset. As this process continues, almost all of the Investors would have bought the asset and the sentiment would be highly bullish by this time.

Now the buying potential is already receded because the potential Investors have already bought the asset. Now a selling potential is created, as those who have bought it will sell it for a profit. As the buying potential recedes, a selling potential increases.

At some point of time, the demand potential and supply potential will be same. And after some time, demand potential will be overwhelmed by supply potential. But at this time, the bullish sentiment would grip the Investors.

At one point of time, everybody would have bought the asset and nobody is left, so everybody is highly bullish, but the selling potential would be at its highest and buying potential would be at its lowest in this point time.

This is the time, trend changes from bullish to bearish because of the change of balance of buying and selling potential in the market. That is why, even though the sentiment is bullish, the trend changes from bullish to bearish and vice versa.

Understanding the internal dynamics of the Market is essential for successful Investing.

Will BRIC Nations perform well in 2010?

Russia topped the table of Countries whose stock Indices performed well in 2009. It is followed by Brazil and it is followed by India and China respectively. Russian Stock Index, Russian Trading System(RTS) appreciated by 112 percent in 2009. Brazil’s Stock Index Bovespa, appreciated by 83 percent. The Indian Stock Index Bse Sensex appreciated by 81 percent followed by China’s Shanghai Index (SSEC) by 80 percent.

What we have to take note is, China’ Index has been trading well below its all time high of 6124 and it is currently trading around 3300 level. India’s Sensex is trading around 17500, well below it all time high of 21000. Brazil Bovespa is trading around 68000, well below its all time high of 74000. Likewise, Russia’s RTS is trading around 1400, well below its high below 2400.
It is clearly visible that all these Indices are trading well below their 2008 highs indicating, that they haven’t actually grown. What they have done is, they have pared some losses. Our expectation is, will these countries stock Indices perform well in 2010 also. If so, will they cross their all time highs.


Fundamentally speaking, the companies in these countries have performed better in 2009 than 2008. But they have not performed as much as they performed for the last three years which indicates, the growth in these Stock Indices are unlikely in 2010. And also, the PE ratios of these indices are in higher side when compared to 2008.


Technically speaking, no bear market would bottom out in one year. It will take more than two years to bottom out. So, 2010 would be year of downtrends in all markets. So, 2010 would be as good as 2009 for the BRIC nations. If markets come in this year, then these nations could perform negatively this year.

Don’t be complacent in holding Investments in these countries.

Mutual Funds or Stocks?

Many Investors have doubts about whether to invest in stocks directly or in Mutual funds. If we can analyze the performance of the Mutual during the Bull Markets and Bear Markets, it would give a clear answer about it.

The present bull market started around 2003 and ended in 2008. The Mutual funds performed well during that period but still their performance lagged behind the performance of Stock Indices. In India, Bombay Stock Exchange Index Sensex appreciated by seven times. But no fund appreciated by seven times in this time. If we take into consideration some well performed sectors like, Reality, Power and Infra, the performance of the funds is far more less, which clearly indicates, Mutual funds have not performed extraordinarily. They have performed as an ordinary investors do.


Had an Investor invested directly in stocks, he would have multiplied his money manifold. So, Mutual fund Managers are not smarter than us. I prefer investing in Stocks directly instead of Mutual funds.


But investing directly in stocks do have some risks. Had anyone invested in Hindustan Unilever in Bse or General Motors in USA, he would have not seen his investment appreciate far the last five years. So, picking the right sector and right stock is more important in investing. Any secular bull market will sustain for five years to ten years. Always hold your investments till the bull market is over. Don’t shuffle your stocks in your portfolio frequently.

If one can follow the rules propounded here, then one can prefer stocks over Mutual funds.

Which one do you prefer?

Can we see revival of American Economy during Obama’s Presidency?

Ever Since, Mr.Obama took over the presidency of USA, the US Stock Markets saw a deep correction followed by sharp rally. But it is well below the highs of 2007. The US Stock Market Index Dow Jones Index made a high around 15000, in 2007. But it is trading around 10,500 now.

The Economy is gauged by the stock Market Indices in any country. So, if we want to know the future state of the Economy, study of Stock Indices would reveal the real picture. So, if Stock Indices behave well during his Presidency, than the Economy is going to perform well.

The Dow Jones made a high of 15000 in 2007. If the US economy performs well in his tenure, then Dow is going to move above 15000. Is it possible for Dow to move above this level? If so, then he will be recorded as one of the best performed President in USA history.

Let me examine the possibility in detail. Stock Markets behave in cycles. If you see a five rally then it will be followed by some period of correction. Normally, bearish periods are more in time than bullish periods, which means, Dow Jones has to remain in bearish mode for another 5 years.

Since Obama’s term will end in another 3 years, the chances are less for the Dow Jones to move above 15000 which in turn unlikely for the US economy to grow in the next three years.

If this happens and if Obama doesn’t get a second term, then he may go down in the history as an unpopular President of USA.

Fundamental performance of companies for the past five years

The fundamental performance of any company is the performance of their sales, net profit and etc. If it grows year by year then we can say it is growing. It can be stagnant or it can show negative growth. Some companies may show loss also.

So a company can grow positively, or it can grow negatively. Likewise, it can remain stagnant or it may show loss. The financial health of any company can be gauged by the financial performance of that company over these years.

Technical performance of the stock price may not really reflect the fundamentals. Let me discuss the fundamental performance of all the companies in the year 2008-2009. Though Stock Markets have rise all over the world in the year 2009, does it really reflect in the fundamental performance of the companies?

The performance of the companies started showing good growth since 2003 and it peaked in 2007-2008 year. In 2008-2009 period it showed negative growth in many sectors except few sectors. In 2009-2010, it has improved but not at the pace that we have seen in the last five years. To put it simple, the present growth is not as good as it seen in the past five years.
But Stock indices have rallied to 2008 levels which show that the present rally is not supported by the fundamentals. So, it is purely a technical rally in the Bear Market. One need to wait and watch for few more quarters of financial resulss before deciding about the future fundamental performance of the companies.

Cutting losses is the toughest decision to make!!!!!!!!!!

Ask any trader or an investor in the stock market or commodities market, he will say, the toughest decision he has to take is when he plans to cut his losses, if his positions goes against his way. The art of decision making is an important department in human’s life. Though decision making is the most important factor in trading, but it is been given the least importance.

For a trader to be successful, he has to be prompt and wise in taking decisions to cut his loss. If he makes a mistake in taking a decision in booking a profit, it will not affect him financially. But, if he makes a mistake in taking a decision in cutting a loss, then his capital would be wiped out partly or completely.

For a trader to take a wise decision during cutting his loss, he should plan his trade before he enters it. If he enters the trade with proper planning, then he will surely know, when to enter and when to exit.

Entry and exit are the important decisions, but, exit is the more important of these two. Even if you make a wrong entry, you will be saved by correct exit. Suppose you make a correct entry but you fails to make correct exit, then you will end up loss.

Traders who have mastered this art are the ones who are making consistent profits in speculative markets. This type of traders will be only a five percent of the total traders. The other nifty five percent traders are losers.

You decide in which type of traders you belong to.

How should be your investment portfolio?

The short term trader is meant to the people you who trades in the Derivatives Market (Futures and Options Market) in Stock Markets or Commodities Market. A trader takes a position in the market in futures or options and holds it for few days. Normally, we can see one month, two month or three months contract in the derivatives market, but we have contracts ranging from months to years.

The trader holds the positions until he makes a profit or until he cuts his losses. Not all trades end up in profits. If the trade goes against his position then he has to close it before he makes a substantial loss. Anyway, he has to close the position with profit or loss or at cost. If he feels, the underlying security move as per his expectation for the next month also, then he can carry forward the contract to next month also. Likewise, he can carry forward the position to unlimited number of months.

So a person trading in this time frame is called a short term trader. In a futures positions, he has to pay a margin to hold a futures position (whether it is short or long). In case, if the position he holding is loss, then he needs to pay the extra margin to make up the loss and also to continue to hold the position. So, there is always a risk of holding these type of positions. Unlike, holding a delivery share, holding a futures position would anytime invite margin call. If we are not prepared for that, then we have to close the position in loss, if it goes our way in the near futures.

Trading for the short term is always risky. But the profits we make in the short term is substantial. You no need to hold it for a long time. Your money will not be blocked for a long time. You can quickly use your funds.

But in the long term investments, your money will be blocked for a long time. There may a time when your money would remain idle without appreciating for years. But it is less riskier than short term positions.

I prefer any investor to invest more than seventy percent of their investments in long term and trade only twenty five percent of your investments in short term trading.

Don’t be married to a stock!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

In investments, don’t marry a stock. Don’t stick to a stock all the time. Not all the stocks perform all the time. Various groups and various sectors perform at different times. Sticking to stock just because you love that stock is a waste of time in Investment.

Let me take the example of Hindustan Unilever from the Indian Stock Market and General Motors from the American Stock Markets. Hindustan Unilever is in Fast Moving Consumer Goods sector. It is a Multinational Company and excellent performing company fundamentally, till now.

The high price of Hindustan Unilever was 325 during 2000. The 2000 bull market was followed by a bear market till 2003 in all world stock markets. From there a bull market started in all world stock Markets. The Indian Bombay Stock Exchange Index , Sensex soared from 2600 to 21000 in another five years where as Hindustan Unilever traded in between 100 and 300 till 2008 and it is still now trading between this range.

If had been a fan of Hindustan unilever for it s performance and its fundamentals, then you would have invested a major portion of your investment in that stock. But for the past 9 years I would not have given a return on your investments.

Had you invested your money in Infrastructure and Reality stocks, it would have appreciated by more than 100 times in these 5 years. So don’t get married to a stock. Always every bull market is supported by a new set of Sectors. Identify it to for successful investing.

Past Financial Bubbles- an Explanation.

One of the oldest recorded financial bubble is Tulip mania in Netherlands. Tulip was brought to Netherlands by the ottoman empire. Initially, it was introduced there in 1590. Slowly cultivation of tulips was started and it soon attracted the attention of the whole Netherlands. Rich people got it in their households these tulips as a status symbol. Soon a craze for Tulips started in the country. Normally, it will take 6 to 7 years to get a tulip bulbs from the plant. So, as the demand picked, new varieties of Tulips were being cultivated, many people joined the bandwagon and almost all in Netherlands was directly or indirectly growing or trading or investing in Tulips.

As the prices of this tulips have gone astronomically, everybody is investing their savings and other money in Tulips. This mania continued for 40 since it started. By the time of its peak, a Tulip is trading more than 10 times the salary of an ordinary worker of that Country.

This Tulip mania has gripped Netherlands and the prices were going up, going up only. Every household in Netherlands is holding Tulip bulbs according to their financial capacity. One fine morning, around the 1737, the prices of Tulips started coming down. The prices were dropping on every passing day. The investors in the tulips are getting wary and they hoped that the situation would soon improve. But it moved otherwise.

So soon everybody started selling it pulling the prices further down, creating further panic among the population. Then only the people realized that they had grown, traded and invested a asset which is worthless to the money that was given. But before they realized the damage was already done. The whole of Netherlands were in financial ruins. The tulips were trading at rock bottom price. There were no buyers and soon tulips of any variety turned worthless within in one or two years.

The rich had become paupers at that time and the poor had become beggars at that time. The whole of Netherlands suffered for more than 2 or 3 decades because the crash in the prices of Tulips.

A worthless Tulip flower was inflated in price simply by the people’s greediness to dizzy height only to come down to few pennies due to the fear of losing the money. This type of process is financial Bubble. Financial Bubble will always burst.

Don’t be a part of a Bubble.

How will IPOs perform in coming months?

IPO is an acronym for Initial Public Offering. IPO is the initial offerings of a company in the form of shares to their share holders at the start of a new company or at the time of expansion of a existing company.

IPOs are being offered by companies that wants the money from the company for their project. People those who are interested in the project of the company or those people who have confidence in the management of the company would subscribe for the shares that is being offered according to their will.

If the IPO is subscribed fully then we can say, people has confidence in that particular company. If it is oversubscribed, then it shows the interest of the investors in that company. If it under subscribed then it shows there lack of faith in that company.

Investors’ interests in investing in IPOs are affected by the various factors. One of the biggest and most influential factor is sentiment in the secondary Markets. If the sentiment is bullish, the IPO will subscribe fully, if not it will flop in the IPO Market.

In any market, the sentiment would be bullish only during Bull Markets. So IPOs will be successful only during the course of the Bull Market or in the end of the bull market. But in Bull markets, the IPOs are priced highly. In bear markets how much ever good project will be bombarded in the IPO market.

But as an investor it is always best to invest during Bear Markets. Simply it is good because it will be priced lowly.

Risk versus reward

Risk is always directly proportionate to reward. The same holds good in investments also. The riskier investments are always give good returns. For example, Investing in Stock is riskier than investing in Real estate. Investing in real estate is riskier than investing in Gold. Investing in Gold is riskier than investing in Bonds. Investing in Bonds is riskier than fixed deposits.

When taking into consideration, investing in Stocks are looking riskiest of all. Dow was trading around 14000 in 2007 and it traded around 7000 in 2009 march. The Indian BSE Index Sensex was trading around 2100 those on January 2008, but by 2008 October, it depreciated by more 60 percent. The Chinese stock market Index was trading around 6100 in October 2007 and by October 2008, it was trading around 1670.

Investments in Stocks would have given negative return to one’s portfolio. Whereas, those who have invested in Gold, would be in good profits till now. Likewise those who have invested in fixed deposits would have got a fixed small return.

But in the longer run, say in another 5 years, Dow may be trading above 25000, Sensex may be trading above 50000 or Shanghai Index may be trading above 15000. If you take in to consideration the return we get from these Indices, it would be phenomenal. Stocks are riskier but in the longer run it will perform above other assets.

So risk is always is directly proportionate to rewards. In one’s portfolio all types of investment of various risks should be maintained for successful investing. One should not choose only a particular asset class. One should choose right mixture of assets including high risk stocks and low risk fixed deposits.

Happy investing.

Scams and Stock Markets?

Whenever a bull market is over, a scam would emerge at that time. The person who is so bullish on that Market or a sector would be jailed because of scam. In 1992, Harshad Mehta a leading Stock Broker at that time was arrested for frauding some leading Banks and Financial Institutions.

In 2000, Ketan Parkeh, a leading Investor and operator of the Stock Market was arrested for swindling some Bank’s Money. In 2009, Ramalinga Raju of Satyam Computers was for cooking up his company’s accounts.

In US, Bernard Madoff, who was running a ponzi scheme based on Stock Market, was arrested for defrauding the Investors. In Germany also a major scam was known at that time. And also in all countries minor scams were unearthed.

Why scams are are being unearthed only during the start of the bear market or in middle of the bear markets. Let me explain the mechanism. During Bull Markets, price of stocks are moving steadily up. So, a confidence has been built over these years about the market that the price will go forever. Once the trend changes as no trend will continue forever, the scamsters failing to foresee the change in trend get trapped in their own landmines only to be blown away.

Don’t think any trend will be there forever.

Brain Drain has stopped or not?

In India, IITs (Indian Institute of Technology) was incorporated in various parts of the Country by the Indian Government, after a special resolution was passed in the parliament.

These Institutions remained the premiere Institutions in India, as for as higher studies are concerned. The Government pumped so much of money into these Institutions to boost the academic levels of the Country and to make students as competitive as any students in the developed Country.

But for the past thirty years, most of the passed out students placed them in jobs outside Indian, mostly in USA and European. Though the purpose of starting IITs is for improving the Country, the purpose is not fulfilled, as those who studied here in IITs had gone to US or Europe for the jobs and the investment put by India on those students were not utilized for India.

For the past three decades, the debate on this subject of Brain drain has taken place in all circles of the Country. But, now the trend has changed. We have seen some US and European Nationals have come to India for working in leading IT and Telecom Companies.

Now it seems the brain drain has started to stop. The sole reason for this is the massive economic growth we have seen in India. The GDP grew more than 8% for the past three years. Becoming of an IT Capital of world has boosted the pay for the employees and for some of them, the salary is much more than what their counterparts are getting in US or Europe.

This has stopped the brain drain as the IITician’s are getting abundant opportunities in India itself.  The purpose of starting the IITs has fulfilled after more than 3 decades. If this growth continues in India further, even foreign would come to work in India.

The days may not be too far.

Financial power would translate into Super power

The Country which flourishes in the Trade and Commerce would automatically turn into a financial power and then into a Military Power and then into Super power.

Since, the beginning of the 15^th Century, the British started trading with all parts of the World and slowly started conquering the world and soon became the super power of the world. Their financial power turned into Military power.

After the Independence of USA from British, they started growing as a business power and by the start of 20^th Century they become the center of world trade. The free society and vibrant democratic system of the USA attracted the Investors, Professionals and Business-mans all over the world, to live and do business. Their rule of the law atmosphere has made USA a conducive place for Investing.

Soon USA grew as a financial power and then it slowly grew as a Military power and by another fifty years it is the only super power in the World.

Any country which is growing financially would one day become a financial power and then into a Military power and then as Super Power. In the present days, China followed by India has started growing as Financial powers. G-8 Grouping lost its significance and G-20 grouping has become the new power bloc of the world which includes China and India.

If the financial growth is sustained in China and India in years to come, then surely these two countries are likely to be the Super Powers after USA.

No Super power is going to rule the world forever

We all know the might of British Empire in the 17^th,18^th, 19^th , and 20^th Century. There was a saying ‘ The sun never sets in British Empire’ which means almost all the parts of the world were ruled by the British. Such was the mighty of British Empire. They brought most of the world under their rule spanning from America to Asia to Africa. They were the dominant powers in the world affairs at that time.

But they were outclassed by USA and USSR after the world wars. USA and USSR became the superpowers of the World. World politics revolved around them. But after the disintegration of USSR in the 1990s, USA remained the sole super power of the world.

Before the 15 Century, the world was under the control of Muslim rulers. The Arabian and Persian Muslim rulers conquered most part of the world except Americas since it is too far away from their countries and also sea expedition is not possible for far off continent. Sulaimansait even expanded his kingdom to Spain in Europe. Muslim rulers conquered most of the Asia except the Mongolia. They conquered African continent. That is why most of the North Africa was Muslim populated Countries. But their might and importance vanished since the emergence of British Empire.

Before 10^th Century, the world is dominated by the rulers from the Indian subcontinent and Mongolians. Chenqish Khan one of the Mongols ruler had made a expedition to conquer the world. But their Importance and power vanished by the arrival of Muslims rulers from Arabia.

No power center will rule the world forever. The super power status of USA would be challenged one day by some other country. But the rotation will  continue forever.

Long Term Investments versus Short Term Investments

There would be always a debate going on whether long term investments are best or short term investments are best. There will always a fifty percent people vote for long term investments and a equal percent of people would opt for short term investments.

Long term investments are investments held by a person for more than one year. Any thing less than that would be considered as short term. Long term investments can be held from one year to a decades. Short term investments can be held from one day to one year.

Even a single day would be enough for the you to get a return from it. Whether it is long term or short term, the utmost important factor is timing the market and picking the right security. Without this no investment would give you a good return.

I prefer long term investment over short term investment just because, even if you have missed the right time but you have chosen the right security, then still you are likely to end up in good investment.

In short term investments, you have to time the market properly. Otherwise, instead of profits, you may end up in loss. The risk is more in short term investments. The short term investments would not give you a second chance. But long term investments do.

Whether is long term or short term, time the market for profitable investments.

Happy investing.

Savings is not for TODAY,it is for TOMORROW!!!!!!!!!

Money flows through every ones hand but very few only holds the money firmly. Without some basic attitude, you cannot save money in this fast moving modern world. In economics these basic things are called as "Factors of Production". For every economic activity  the land manpower and money are the basic needs and they are the factors of production.


You may think loans can be availed easily but in reality  the lenders are verifying your repaying capacity and your bonafied.  Even for a home loan the banks are asking for the margin money from the borrower. In this case your savings only will give you a hand.




Even a skyscraper is built with small small bricks only. If you start to save money right now it will accrued  to a large sum tomorrow.
What ever may be your earnings weather  it is in thousands or in lakhs, your needs also more than that of your earnings,hence whatever be the income you have to save a small portion of your earnings.


In this fast changing world, your savings only will give you a hand in your future needs. hence you start savings from this New year itself.
Once you decided to save money there are various ways to save. You can invest in recurring deposits in banks and if you are a salaried person you may voluntarily invest more money in P.F or you  you may invest in systematic investments plans(SIP).
Last but not the least  Every building is built by small small bricks only.

Trend in real estate in India and China a comparison!

In total Indian GDP growth, the portion of foreign investment in real estate market is only 1.1 percent only. Where as in China it is 3.2 percent the reason behind this much variations are many let us analyze  these in detail.


 In China the total land holdings and its rights are with the Chinese government and hence there is no hurdles for the foreign investors to invest. But in India most of the land holdings and their rights are with the Public. The land owners have the sole desecration in fixing  the land price.  They cannot reduce the land price to the minimum but they can raise the land price according to their wish. weather right or wrong they raises the land value and makes huge profits. The mediators also plays to some extent to get more commissions.


In India next to agriculture.  The real estate is giving more employment opportunity and lot of employment opportunities are available in this field.  Generally if a particular sector is of in boom the other industries related to that sector also will get more benefits  they also will be in growth mode.


Hence it is the right time for  foreign investors to invest in this sectors.  For domestic small and medium investors to invest in real estate and construction related shares. Now most of the mutual funds also investing in this sectors only. India's leading bank SBI invests12.7 percentof its investment in real estates only. So think and act wisely.

A successful Stocks and Commodities Trader

Successful trading comes from experience and experience comes from only after spending money and time in the Markets. A trader is considered only if he trades and makes money in bull or bear markets.

Proper analysis and strict financial discipline are the two important factors that are very crucial for a trader to be successful. Successful Traders have developed a good trading system after prolonged testing of the trading system.

 A trading system may be of any kind but over a period, it should show good results, irrespective of any Market. Until you design a trading system, try experimenting with your system till you are satisfied with the system. This is not going to be a easy process.

Once you have found a successful trading system that works for you, you need to test the system for number of times for Profits and losses before you use it in real time.

A trader you trades the markets without proper trading system is destined to lose. So, designing a trading system is the half way mark for a successful trading. The next part is financial discipline.

Financial discipline is nothing but executing your trades based only on your system with proper entry and exit levels. The loss from any trade should be less and the profit from the trade should be more.

Successful mastering of developing a trading system and following it with discipline would surely make a successful Trader.

Will This Growth Sustain forever?

The new Investors and younger generation of India and China feels that the economic growth of their countries are non stopple and the growth is going to be there for ever. May be this growth continue for another decade, but at one stage, any growth has to see a saturation.

Saturation will be followed by the period of negative growth. The economic cycle will always see a high and a bottom. May be the growth and slow growth time periods may differ, but that will happen.

After the World War, Japan concentrated more on their economic growth. So Japan attracted lot of foreign investments from all over the world and the Japanese invested in all countries. The growth was phenomenol since 1950 to 1990. Their Stock Markets peaked in 1989 when Nikkei was trading around 39000.

Since then, for the past 20 years, Nikkei crossed its all time high of 39000. Now it is trading around 10000. It is one fourth of its all time high of 39000. So, a generation on Investors has never seen the peak in Japan.

The same will happen to India or China in the future. People has to learn lessons from Japan.

Rich becomes richer, Poor becomes poorer

The year 2003 to 2008 saw massive growth in India and China. The GDPs of both these countries are growing more than 8 percent while other European and North American Countries are growing at zero percent rate.

Since 1998, India and China saw the growth of IT industry in their countries but the growth was higher in India than China. BPOs and KPOs business boomed in India since then.

The massive growth of IT, Telecom and BPOs in India has helped many middle class families boys and girls in India, particularly in South India, to earn a good salary which hitherto was not available to them.

These middle class families slowly lifted to the upper middle class family category because of the Income they got from these Industries.

At the same time, Chinese concentrated more on other sectors for their growth as they are good in English. So, the growth is even in China in all sectors and the salaries rose nominally for all class of people. Hence, the growth of the Chinese families were more or less homogenious.

But in India, the growth is concentrated more in select sectors of the Industry. So, the growth of the Indian families is not homogenious. Only a few section of the people, say 10% of the population, has enjoyed the Economic growth.

While India was growing one side, we saw farmes suicide in some parts of the Country because of the crop failures. Price rise of essential commodities has made the life’s of the weaker class very difficult.

So, the recent Economic growth is enjoyed only by few percentage of the population of the India.

I would not say it as a real Economic growth untill all sections of the society enjoys the fruits of growth.

Evils of Inflation and deflation

Let me explain the concept of Inflation and deflation in a simple manner. Inflation and deflation are the terms used to describe the state of a Economy.

Inflation is the word used during price rise of essential commodities. Inflation is nothing but, too much of money chasing too little goods. To put it simply, if there is too much of paper money and less quantity of goods are produced, then too much of paper money would chase too little goods which would automatically increase the price of the commodity.

Inflation occurs when there is more paper money and less end products. There is imbalance between the money printed and the goods produced during inflation. Inflation can be controlled by controlling the printed paper money or producing more of the goods.

The term deflation is used opposite to Inflation. Deflation is a period when too little money chases too many goods. Because of this, the price of the commodities starts falling which will put the producers to get a price lower than their production cost. This is also evil to the economy.

So continous fall or rise of prices would be seen as evil for the economy. Inflation and deflation can be controlled by the Government by increasing or decreasing the Interest rates or by controlling the printing of Currencies.

When there is blood in the streets, You buy property

There is a popular saying “ When there is blood in the Streets, You buy Property. In the Hollywood Movie ‘The Inside Man’ the sentence was used frequently to describe situation of Character in that Movie making money during world war.


The saying would surely fit for the Investments decisions. Whenever there is a decline in the price of the assets whether it is Stocks or Bullion or Real Estate, they are bound to come up from low levels. But it may not be immediately but surely it will rebound atleast after some time.


But the emotional setup of all Investors at that time would be biased towards panic. They will be following the herds. Herd Mentality would set in which would surely ensure the Investors not to take rational decisions.


But the history shows whenever there is panic in any Market that is the best buying opportunity and it is mostly missed by most Investors. Investment decisions should be taken in a particular asset when others are selling. This is called the contrarian thinking.


The best Investment chances came when everybody was in Panic about the particular Market. In future, we may see a panic situation in the any market. We should see that an Investment opportunity, instead of joining the herd.






The contrarian thinking says ‘you buy property when others are selling’.

Dubai Crisis- Is it the end or the tip of the Iceberg?

Dubai Crisis- Is it the end or the tip of the Iceberg



We all know that the financial crisis in Dubai World is due to heavy exposure in Real Estate Investments and the fall of property prices, and a very little demand for the already completed projects.


Money is locked in declining assets. The same scenario was seen in 2008 in US with large Investment Banks collapsing under their weight by holding huge exposure in real estate market. The ripples of that effect was heard in Asian and European Countries also.


But at that time, the asian countries some what remained insulated from that effect. In India also, those effects can be seen by the fall of property prices and lack of demand.


Now the million dollar question is whether the worst is over or the worst is yet to come. Normally, when a financial bubble is burst, its effect can be seen for 5 to 10 years. For example, the dot com burst had it effect for another 10 years. The same is going to happen now also.


In India, large number of IPO are coming in Infra, Power and Reality sector. This indicates people are still confident of this sector. It does apply that the worst is yet to come. We are likely to see Dubai Crisis scenario in coming months in some Asian and European Countries.


What I feel is that the Dubai crisis is just a tip of the Iceberg. When the whole Iceberg is known to the world, I don’t know how it is going to affect our career and living.