Fitch confirms the highest score to Germany

The rating agency Fitch on Tuesday reaffirmed the "AAA" rating to Germany, and now it is the best position. The outlook remains stable on the other hand. A good report that offers the very interesting German debt investment safe haven status in these troubled times.

Speaking in a statement, Fitch highlights the following: a German economy "robust and diversified", "health" of the labor market, a macroeconomic management "prudent" investments and "vigorous". According to the agency, the prevailing market rate for the German debt if need be shown the safe haven status associated with it. However, that "the resolution of the crisis in the euro zone remains a determining factor for the stability of the German economy" notes Fitch.

"With a 40% share of German exports, 2% of GDP spent on existing support plans, and exposure of its banking sector to peripheral economies in the euro area, the risk of contagion from the crisis in Germany public debt remains high, "said Fitch, as well.

A position that echoes that of the IMF, the IMF saw as a likely scenario now possible spread of the debt crisis of the euro area financial system. "The banks' exposure to the fragile economies of the euro area is a fraction of the total, but is concentrated on a small number of institutions," said the agency also. The Landesbanken, regional public banks also remain a weak point of the German economy, Fitch believes that "an additional restructuring and consolidation is needed in this sector."

Recall that the Basel Committee refuses to recognize the present German peculiarity consists in that a large part of bank capital is composed of public hybrid capital which banks must pay interest to shareholders. Local authorities could be forced to run vast operations re-capitalization, the amount could be just "confessed" politically speaking.

For many years, observers indicate persistently that only two or three Landesbanken sufficient in Germany, instead of the seven schools being independent. But, of course, local politicians are hesitant to say the least to give up some of the prestige and economic power associated with these regional facilities.

New measures to support the American economy

The U.S. Federal Reserve, Central Bank of the United States (EDF) announced Wednesday that it would take further measures to support the U.S. economy, saying the resumption of the latter remained "slow". Among the measures: the sale by the end of June 2012 the equivalent of $ 400 billion in Treasury bills.


Subsequently, the Fed plans to buy an equivalent amount with a longer maturity in an attempt to lower interest rates and long-term power purchase real estate securities without increasing the size of its portfolio, the objective to support the mortgage market. The Fed also said it would keep its key interest rate near zero until mid-2013 if necessary.

On Tuesday, investors had taken for granted that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) announced shortly measures to resume, background likely to increase demand for raw materials. While opening the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Fed, investors are already betting on a new "Operation Twist", which is to lower interest rates in the long term to boost the activity without act on interest rates in the short term.

In fact, such an operation is to extend the maturity of securities held in the balance sheet, ten years and over, to reduce rates, evidence to boost business investment and household on the housing market. Such a measure Devit also have an immediate impact on prices by devaluing the dollar and increasing demand in emerging markets.

Sharp rise in bad loans of banks in Spain

Decidedly, things keep getting worse in Spain, while the Madrid Stock Exchange barely see the green, data published Monday by the Bank of Spain indicate that bad debts are Spanish banks amounted to 3.1 billion euros in July, reaching a total of 124.7 billion euros. Note also that the ratio of NPLs to total loans granted by the Spanish financial sector amounted to 6.94% in July, corresponding to a level not seen since February 1995. Induced by such a situation of rising unemployment and increasing household debt.

Recall in this connection that the mortgage-up over 70% of household debt. However, this often forgotten by the media to tell you is that almost 85% of Spanish mortgages in 2001 consisted of floating rate loans. Note that in other countries such as France and Germany, less than 20% of loans to the same period are of this type. A context that makes the Spanish market particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates from the European Central Bank ....

Let us recall that in Spain, the Euribor ((interbank lending rate in the euro area) in one year is the index most used to index the interest rate. Finally, 93.2% of families in debt for real estate purchases on the other side of the Pyrenees are at variable rates.

The price of gold a victim of profit-taking

Once is not custom, gold has not benefited Monday from its role as a safe haven. Investors seem to have the contrary "relieved" of their investment in the precious metal to cover losses in other markets. By mid afternoon, the price of an ounce of gold was trading around 1820 dollars, while prices went up Friday to 1885.90 dollars.

On Tuesday, gold had even reached a record high of 1921.15 dollars. A surge that has allowed some to reap serious benefits and allowing them to absorb the consequences of their unfortunate investments.
Let us recall that an ounce of gold was still up 15% in a month. The surge in gold is also hampered the last few hours by the renewed strength of the dollar, the greenback Monday reaching its highest level in six months against the Euro. A situation that makes it less attractive raw material purchases denominated in U.S. currency.

Still, the phenomenon could be a passenger, uncertainties regarding the euro area accentuated a little more each day. It should be noted as well as the largest gold funds listed globally, SPDR Gold Trust, saw the level of its holdings increase by 10.5 tons during the single day of Friday to reach 1,241 tons now.

Oil prices on the increase

Oil-barrel prices rose sharply Wednesday in New York, boosted by the weather and a report from the Fed to say the least optimistic about U.S. growth. The recovery of strength in the stock markets will do the rest. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, a barrel of light sweet crude for October delivery had soared to well over 3.32 dollars Tuesday, up to now the value of 89.34 dollars. Meanwhile in London, the price of Brent North Sea for the same period was trading at 115.80 dollars on the Intercontinental Exchange, rising 2.91 dollars so.

The price of crude rose sharply at the opening as markets react strongly to climatic conditions observed in the Gulf of Mexico, a region where most of the platforms provide a quarter of the oil consumed in the country. Investors have largely responded to the report published by the Office of Management and regulation of ocean energy resources (http://www.cmegroup.com/company/nymex.htmlBOEMRE), the latter indicating that, indeed, if Tropical Storm Lee, who reached Sunday Louisiana had inflicted no major damage, the fact remained that 37% of oil extraction and 18% of gas extraction in the area remained suspended Wednesday.

Although significantly a lower percentages of the values observed the previous day but at a level totally unexpected. Note also a possible disruption of production in Mexico, second largest exporter of crude to the United States while the National Hurricane Center reports that a tropical cyclone could pass within 48 hours, with a probability of 70%.

The price per barrel will also be benefited with the surge in global stock markets observed Wednesday, London and Paris rising more than 3%, while Frankfurt soared more than 4%. Another positive: the report of conditions contained in the Beige Book Federal Reserve (Fed), economic activity in the United States continued to grow at a moderate pace. An ad that has the merit of ending the cycle of bad news experienced in recent times.