Overall decline in Credit Default Swap

According to Markit, the Credit Default Swap (CDS) debt-related peripheral countries in the Euro area showed an overall decline. Markets appear to be satisfied and policies in Spain and Italy, as investors thus less prone to risk aversion.

But caution is still required while Greece is still alone, strong concerns weighing on a possible non-application of the second aid package awarded to Athens. Thus, the CDS (insurance against nonpayment) of the Greek debt to five years have now reached 2,200 basis points, up 92 bps.

The Credit Default Swap with the same maturity on the Italian debt has meanwhile declined by 19 bps to 360 bps, a few hours before the auction by Italy of eight billion Euros of debt. CDS Spanish were down for their 14-bps to 362 bps. The 10-year rate in Spain was changing and in turn to 5.04%, against a record 6.45% last August 2. Regarding Ireland, the decline is 32 basis points to 805 basis points.

Gold, The Misfortune Of One is The Happiness of Others

The misfortune of one is again the happiness of others ... and vice versa. After passing record after record, the "favor" of the crisis in the United States and the European Union, the price of gold has suffered these last hours of renewed investor confidence international markets.

The ounce of gold has dropped sharply Wednesday, falling below the $ 1,800 in a sharp drop of nearly 8%. While it is however necessary to correlate the thing, remembering that the day before the gold price reached a new record high trading at more than 1,900 dollars, a trend following a wave of profit taking after the outbreak observed in recent days.

By 1430 GMT, the price of an ounce of gold has tumbled to 1761.28 dollars on the spot market, dropping more than 150 dollars compared to a record 1,913.50 dollars recorded on Tuesday in exchange Asian.

Investors appear to have diverted a time of gold and its safe haven qualities, reassured by the increase observed on the European stock markets, it following the announcement of a rebound in durable goods orders in July higher than expected.

Also note that the Shanghai Gold Exchange, China market of precious metals, said Tuesday it had increased its "margin calls" - the amounts that investors must file with the operator for each position in a futures contract - making of facto less attractive investments in gold.

While the August 11, the CME, the exchange operator COMEX, New York market of precious metals, already noted by 22% its "margin calls", passing $ 7,425 per contract, some seem to fear a further increase. Sensing a desire to remove the "weak hands" who lack cash.

Sad record of youth unemployment in Italy

Is it only consolation? While France recorded an increase of job seekers, Italy is no exception ... since according to a study released Wednesday by Confartigianato, the Italian federation of craftsmen, the Italian nation has one of the youth unemployment rate the highest in Europe and the highest in the age group under 35. According to the report of Confartigianato, Italy has more than one million unemployed under the age of 35, corresponding to a rate of 15.9%.

The problem is particularly acute in the 15-24 age group with a rate of 27.8% recorded in June by the European Institute Eurostat, the European average for it’s around 20.3%. Remember, however, that Spain, the unemployment rate for under 25 reached 45.7% while it is 33.3% in Slovakia. Like what everything is relative ...

Looking specifically the portion of the age of 35, the number of young people with jobs fell by 926,000 units between 2008 and 2011. The Italian institute of statistics Istat for its part told that Italy had in the first quarter of 2011, 1.152 million of unemployed under 35 years. Unemployment is especially in the Mezzogiorno located south of the peninsula with a rate of 21.1%, representing 538,000 unemployed youth. Sicily has the highest with a rate of 28%, reports Confartigianato ... regardless of undeclared ...

For businesses, non-standard contracts can get rid of the tax burden. The absence of effective measures for reducing employment opportunities for young people to find a decent job is the main reason. Note, however, all age groups combined, the unemployment rate in Italy is one of the lowest in Europe, reaching 8% in June against 9.9% in the euro area over the same period. Young Italians seem to somewhat stalled, only 47% of them hoping to get a full-time contract. Ironically, while the young end of the Arab Spring sees Italy as a veritable paradise, 98,000 young Italians would be willing to emigrate to find work.

For the record, according to information provided by the Italian Interior Ministry in a circular to the Chamber of Deputies dated August 3, 2011, 51,881 immigrants set foot on Italian soil during the first seven months of the 2011. Of these, 24,854 are from Tunisia, 23,890 are from Libya and the rest of sub-Saharan Africa. Such an "effective" equals the number of immigrants recorded during 1999, a year marked by war in Kosovo.

Shares and Bonds

When we purchase a share of stock, we are in fact getting ownership in the company in which we are investing. As a result, we share in both the profits and losses of the company the whole time the years. We’d probably want to pay attention to news that affects both the market and the economy in general. A bond does not embody ownership in a corporation where as stock entitles you. The company may sell bonds as an alternative to issuing stock. Rather than owning a piece of the company, the bondholder becomes a creditor the company. The company will be paying back over the life of the bond. The difference is that the return you will earn on your money as a bondholder is generally a fixed percentage annually. If the bond is for 5 years, you will get interest each year for the next 5 years, and then our investment returned to you at termination date. In the short term, we lose money in the stock market than the bond market.

Certification of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner

After much discussion and delays, U.S. and European authorities have certified the plane long-haul Boeing 787 Dreamliners. Recall that the first aircraft flight took place December 15, 2009. The latter is designed to carry between 210 and 330 passengers depending on configuration. The manufacturer has received approval from the Federal Aviation Administration in the U.S. (FAA) and European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), the latter indicating that the device meets all the regulations in force.

The Japanese airline All Nippon Airways (ANA) for its previously announced it would take formal possession on September 25 of the first copy of the aircraft. It's about time! Since delivery will still be more than three years behind schedule, According to estimates by experts external to the builder, the project has incurred cost overruns of several billion dollars.

The construction of the Dreamliner is indeed a challenge to Boeing, the production process including making composite materials with the aim to reduce the device and reduce its fuel consumption.

However, composites do not follow the same laws as aluminum. If they have undeniable qualities, they are however not free from defects. The development of the wing and the point of attachment of the wing to the fuselage and have posed serious challenges to engineers. At present, the device has already been 827 orders. Boeing expects to produce ten copies per month by the end of 2013. United Continental Holdings, formed by the merger of Continental Airlines and United Air Lines, should receive its first Boeing 787 Dreamliner in early 2012; the assembly phase of the unit has already started in Everett, in the State of Washington.

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Hurricane Irene could also add the financial woes of the United States

Not life grand? Hurricane Irene has not yet reached the coasts of the United States that some experts argue already figures on the possible financial consequences of its passage. According to Kinetic Analysis, a firm that develops computer models of any damage that may be caused by bad weather, the weather event could cause up to twelve billion dollars in damage on the east coast of the United States if the projected path by Meteorologists official is confirmed.

If I were cynical, I could say that the situation would represent almost a "windfall" for Obama, the financial damage caused by storms may eventually merge with the negative consequences of lack of rigor of the American government on the management of public deficits. According to the national hurricane center based in Miami, Irene has to hit North Carolina Saturday and Sunday back to New York where "a very dangerous storm" could lead to rising water 3 to 4 meters.

If one believes Chuck Watson; director of research for Kinetic Analysis, this scenario would be the worst possible in current situation. It is true according to an estimate made by NASA from satellite observations; Irene has a diameter of about 820 km, equivalent to nearly a third of the total length of the U.S. east coast (2675 km).

The probability that the hurricane hit New York at the height of its intensity remains small, then context would reduce the "bill", the damage in this case could "be limited" to a range between 5 and 10 billion. The firm is nevertheless clear that a difference of 30 km of where the center of the storm will strike "can literally double the value of the damage."Kinetic Analysis shows "If it goes directly to the City of New York, even a low-intensity hurricane could easily cause one billion of losses".

ECB Purchased 14.291 € Billion Of Bonds

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced Monday it had bought for 14.291 billion Euros of government bonds of countries in the euro area from 11 to 17 August. Its previous "purchases" were $ 22 billion the previous week. The ECB also held Tuesday a tender for deposits to a week to absorb excess liquidity caused by these operations.

August 19, its purchases of government bonds totaled 110.5 billion Euros, these measures within the scope of its outstanding program reactivated in August. Even if the ECB did not want to disclose more information about the origin of the securities purchased, it seems that the Central Bank has acquired principally Spanish and Italian bonds, continuing its policy last week.

Not surprisingly, when it's soaring rates applicable to the debt of Spain and Italy leading the institution to reactivate its procurement processes of public debt, in order to try to contain the contagion of the crisis. Overall, the ECB has bought 110.5 billion euros of shares since May 2010.

Was The United States Victim of The Collapse Of Euro?

The Euro, the fall guy accused of all evil.... Including the US markets tumbled? Not avoiding any scheme - as heavy as it is - Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the U.S. central bank (Fed) said in Washington that the euro was "decaying”.... Even better than the misadventures of the European currency was explaining the current difficulties in the U.S. economy.

Not life grand? Still, many Americans could join forces with his words ... history to find a culprit. According to Greenspan, European banks are in trouble because they hold debt securities in countries such as Greece. "The reason we are so slow is the level of uncertainty" caused by this situation, he said bluntly in an analysis still a bit fast....

A few days ago, Jacques Delors, former president of the European Commission - who initiated the single market - and former Minister of the French economy has in turn criticized the policy of the leaders of the euro against the current crisis. Believing nothing less than the single currency and the European Union would be "the brink".

History to put the record straight ... Still remembers that Alan Greenspan was one of the main instigators of financial deregulation in the United States. Which is widely considered to have “contributed” to the outbreak of the crisis?

The former head of the Fed, however, still dismissed the "allegations" of economists saying that the policy of low rates led the Fed from 2003 to 2005 is largely responsible for the housing bubble, which burst caused an unprecedented crisis.

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Germany was it in turn impacted by the crisis in European Union?

Indeed, the Zew barometer that measures the confidence of German financial circles in the country's economic outlook for the next six months, has again declined in August, for the sixth time in a row. The barometer has reached Zew - 37.6 points in August, after posting - 15.1 points in July.

The fact is all the more striking that the index had not fallen as sharply since October 2008, during which he had lost 21.9 points from the previous month, hit hard by the impact of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Also note that the current drop is greater than analysts' estimates, which had forecast an index standing at -26 points.

The indicator is now suffering the backlash of concerns about German growth, which slowed sharply in the second quarter. Last week, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) and has the resolve to announce that German gross domestic product (GDP) was only marginally increased by 0.1% over the first quarter. If investors hold a positive view of course the current economic situation in Germany, but it is much worse than the previous month.

It is true that if Germany is often seen as a champion of exports, foreign trade made a negative contribution to GDP in Germany last spring, as imports exceeded exports. "Private consumption and investment in construction also slowed the German economy in the second quarter," had also then said the Statistical Office. According to a survey released recently, the Germans would doubt increasing the capacity of Chancellor Angela Merkel to solve the financial crisis.

They are in fact 55% have had "little confidence" and 20% "no confidence" in the conservative-liberal coalition government out of the euro-zone turbulence that wave now. Main objections put forward by the survey: "the Germans aspire to clear positions on the part of leaders and now it is not the case," said Richard Hilmer, director of Infratest Dimap. In other words, the German citizens expect a clear plan, and their demands are not met at present.

The question is whether the second quarter sounds sort of the end of the German economic miracle, and if Germany could in turn fall into the throes of recession.

Online Banking Part.II

The only entities that have managed to sustain their existence are those that are backed by a bank, maintaining an independent identity. This allowed them to diversify their services, taking advantage of operational know-how and organization of their parent and thus offer very attractive prices. Boursorama is a convincing example of this model. Since its merger with Society General, Boursorama is no longer confined to the business broker but has become a real bank.

However, if the online bank has no place as an organization independent financial, recent operations have shown that online banking is now essential to any actor with a network. New entrants in the banking landscape have understood. Insurers having embarked on the adventure of assurfinance began with an offer to acquire or develop online banking in addition to the existing branch network.

The acquisition of online banks by banks should not be seen as a way to computerize the customer relationship. Indeed, banks are seeking to boost their network by opening branches. The agency is the best way to attract customers, offering Internet users the ability to simplify the management of operations.

However some players have managed to build a profitable business model around online banking service. This model is based on tactical development articulated in two phases:

(I) a startup focused on specialized and profitable activities. For example, the tactic is to capture customer deposits and generate commissions on high value added activities (securities, life insurance ...) and for which the customer is willing to pay.

(Ii) enlargement to daily banking activities (current accounts, credit card) which are less profitable because of investments in infrastructure require significant yield little and are subject to very strong competition.

Online Banking Part.I

The acquisition of Egg by Citigroup shall deliver to the agenda the question of the model of online banks. Founded in 1998 by Prudential, Egg has always been deficient - the French branch was sold in 2004 to Auchan in the development of banking activities and never managed to achieve the objectives in terms of customers. This is the situation common to most of the independent online banks. However, their creation in the late 1990s, online banks seemed to have a promising future thanks to the Internet phenomenon. How to explain such a setback?


At the beginning, the online banks were intended to attract a large clientele (Egg counted on a portfolio of 1 million customers in 2003, five years after its creation) by proposing a new banking model: an account management possible at any time and from any Internet-connected computer, with an offer "discount". Using the Internet as the only interface between the bank and the customer had to allow significant savings, both in terms of personnel but also capital assets. Thus, online banks offer rates were very aggressive on a range of services equivalent to that of a traditional bank. However, they failed to offer prices low enough to stand out, to forget the absence of physical relationship between the customer and the banker, and manage to capture some of the customers used to a classical model.

Weakened by the explosion of the Internet bubble in 2000, online banks could not withstand the intensity of competition in the banking sector, especially as traditional banks, although behind the banks line, developed or acquired equivalent services. The interest of a "pure player" of online banking has therefore been questioned since it was possible to combine customer relationship in a network, and maximum flexibility via the Internet.

Liquidity Crisis And Stress Testing

Liquidity risk cannot be treated satisfactorily by the VAR because it ignores the risk exposure of a portfolio during the process of its liquidation. A liquidity crisis is usually an extreme event, so it requires tools Stress testing more appropriate than the VaR.

To fight against liquidity crises, the scenarios of crisis of a financial institution must include all the fragility of its balance sheet, namely the possible mismatch between investments in illiquid assets and funding sources precarious liabilities. A Stress Test relevant to a financial institution would be important to consider the consequences of a simultaneous withdrawal of its market counterparties. This is the way in which JP Morgan is committed after the near-collapse of LTCM in 1998. JP Morgan has developed the "dealer exit stress tests" to estimate the risk of sudden drying up of market liquidity due to one or more of their counterparties. This kind of stress tests and allowed to become aware of the dangers of the high concentration of certain financial markets.

One of the limitations of VaR as originally calculated was based on an assumption of "normality" of events. Or rare events are more important in magnitude than the law says normal. The work was therefore directed towards the use of distributions from "fat tails". Stress Testing procedure has the advantage of circumventing this difficulty by specifying the desired magnitude of the event, regardless of its probability of occurrence. Therefore it is considered an extension of the VaR.

Although complementary, these two methods have significant differences, however, since they are far from operating in the same period. Indeed, while the VaR is a tool for highly automated daily monitoring, Stress Testing requires the intervention of a number of players and often requires a significant delay construction and analysis. Thus, if the answer to a VaR limit is exceeded is simple (just cut positions), the response to overexposure through a liquidity stress analysis is more complex (installation program or refinancing guarantees, etc.)..
Finally, unlike the VaR with the automatic calculation can facilitate the adoption of the outcome, the results of stress testing because they are developed from subjective elements, require a real effort to communicate and explain with decision-making bodies.

Market Risk Assessment -2

Using a single number, indicate the VaR of a portfolio exposure to market risk and the likelihood of loss under the conditions proposed. The risk is also measured in monetary units, the same as those in which balances are established. Finally, among its other benefits, VaR:

* To evaluate the performance and correct any risk-based.
* Promote the information and transparency to the extent that it is a measure expressed in non-technical terms and may be subject to periodic reports.
* To determine the allocation of funds to invest and set quantitative limits for risk managers.

Three calculation methods are generally used to estimate the distribution of losses. They have in common to estimate the potential change in portfolio value from the data of the past, however, differ on the following:

* The historical method: observation of the historical behavior of the position to estimate the VaR;
* The parametric method: decomposition of the position of instruments based on different risk factors (equity indices, rates of different maturities, exchange rates ...) and then estimate the probability distribution of risk factors;
* The Monte Carlo simulation Monte Carlo market factors from an a priori probability distribution and estimate the VaR, as the historical method, from the sample generated.

Market Risk Assessment -1

Quantification of risk is a major concern of financial players because it allows them to answer questions like "How can we lose with our portfolio in normal market conditions or abnormal for a time horizon given? ". VaR (Value at Risk) and Stress Testing are the two most common methods of quantification of risk and are usually combined.

Although the VaR can be used as a baseline measurement for all types of risk and the overall level of society, its most common use for market risk.
VaR is a probabilistic measure of the loss of a portfolio point of a given composition as a result of future changes in risk factors. It is defined by the maximum probable loss at a confidence level of x% (for a time horizon of one day / one week, etc.).. Var corresponds to the loss that will not be exceeded in more than (100-x)% of cases, when a position given structure is maintained for a period [0, T].

If Vt is the value of the position t, the VaR is given by:
Pr {Vo - VT} ≤ ≥ VaR (100 - x) / 100

For example, consider a portfolio for which the VaR of € 100 million with a confidence level of 99% over a period of one week, meaning that, under normal market conditions, there is a probability of 1 % to record a loss of more than € 100 million for the week of detention (period over which the change in value of the portfolio is measured).

How Bank can Control Internal Transfer Rate -4

The TCI should be calculated and stored in the SI as the implementation of the operation to be exploited in the management tools of the trade act. This would also ensure consistency of refunds to the dashboard used by senior management. Of course, this also requires a vertical integration of all impacted reference: Product size / dimension structure / customer dimension. This target is difficult to achieve in the short term, however, according to their priorities and constraints, banks can already move to intermediate systems. For example, the establishment of an exchange system between the distribution and the calculation system (ALM) would ensure the inclusion of the real characteristics in the calculation of TCI. Although the TCI is not preserved, it can be recalculated to the same using the same parameters (market data, contract data), known at the time of the request. Thus, the joint calculations a priori / a posteriori would be consistent.

Other improvements could be made to the establishment of a TCI approach. For example, the business may wish to have a global vision allowing him to integrate the risk profile of the customer in managing the commercial act.
Propose systems to measure the performance of activity based on risk and include operating costs would also be an area for improvement.

The work of coherence and sophistication will make TCI a real management tool for profitability and not just a constraint for a single measurement.

How Bank can Control Internal Transfer Rate -3

To ensure proper use and membership of teams, schools must conduct a deep reflection on their process of diffusion of ICT and develop their information and their organization to ensure consistency of refunds. The objective is to obtain a homogeneous and TCI shared by all players.

Efforts should be worn on the establishment of committees (awards committee or other governing body) that would go all the advantages / disadvantages of a product and this on all axes. Indeed it is important to highlight the difficulty or ease of marketing a product: product carrier, product not meeting customer expectations, discontinued product, but also the financial aspects: produces little or very profitable ...

This information will then be shared by all to define a more accurate pricing. The bonus / penalty that can be set up in response to market developments with a view to remain competitive in the standards of the place must be clear communication activities to facilitate their adoption. The aim is to involve all stakeholders in the pricing and impose the CIT, not as a constraint but as a guarantee of profitability indicators like credit risk.

These elements will allow policy makers to reorient trade policy or financial institution on the basis of cyclical and structural analysis while ensuring compliance with the policy set.

Course to ensure the homogeneity of the refunds should be defined processes to close the dashboard rather than in their broadcasts, but in their preparation. To do the bridges between the different functions must be implemented, supported by clear governance principles.

How Bank can Control Internal Transfer Rate -2

In practice, agencies often complain of excessive levels. They face the price war generated a better distribution of offers on the market and often use the waiver system to maintain or expand their portfolios client. Salespeople do not see a sign in the TCI arguing that the competitiveness of a TCI unit operation does not enhance the profitability of the customer relationship as a whole.

The profit margin is very important to implement the development strategy of the Bank. Yet the results are often heterogeneous because of the multiplicity of stakeholders and the synchronism of the calculations. Thus during the formation of the commercial offer, the account manager is based on a grid giving along different axes (rate type, maturity, options ...) the rate of the product. This grid does not know the actual margin generated by the operation. This is calculated a posteriori (stock) with the exact characteristics of the operation. This discrepancy explains in part the discrepancies in the results presented by the commercial world versus the financial sphere.


Senior management must have coherent and unique dashboards. This coherence can only come from a good articulation of the calculations a priori / a posteriori. It is therefore necessary to develop processes and tools that do not just needed for each function (ALM, Controlling, development) but that cover, in aggregate, all the needs.

How Bank can Control Internal Transfer Rate -1

Today the majority of banks have developed an approach by internal transfer rates. The approach differs depending on the size, the activity of institutions and the role of the ALM (Asset Liability Management or ALM).

However, she always intended to measure the contribution of the financial and commercial sphere to the MNI (and GNP).

The TCI is the center of trade between these two spheres, it is the price at which business units, respectively, puts or refinancing their resources and jobs to the ALM.

The TCI is usually built for a loan from the backing of the rate of "flux flow" of the operation, taking into account the refinancing costs, plus the cost of contract options (caps, floors ...) or customer (option prepayment ...). Thus, the performance of transactions by trading is not affected by changes in the market because the risk is transferred to ALM.

CFOs have responded to the problems of development of ICT and the processes that are derived are now under control. However, refunds are made which are not always effective to control the performance of the Bank.
To do this, banks must transform TCI management tool of the act by providing a commercial return consistent at all levels (commercial, financial, decision-maker).

Ideally ICT must be used at the proposal stage to project the commercial profitability of the customer. Indeed to drive the business effectively, we must take into account all the elements that run with the client's portfolio. But if the TCI enables sales to act on the elements they control (as the financial risks are carried by the ALM), it does not enhance the overall customer or business. Similarly, agency officials must be able to make the same tests at their level.

Financial Services And Country Risk

Importantly, to attract new customers, foreign banks will make their reputation in the region by addressing several areas (retail banking, asset management ...) and extending their geographical coverage, in contrast to local, often focused on a number few countries. This strategy requires a deployment capitalizing on existing settlements, focusing on synergies (sharing of customer data ...), and market knowledge already acquired with the risks, a decisive element in the investment decision.


Indeed, Central Europe in particular differs from other popular markets like China and India by showing a mainly political and economic situation almost stabilized. Of course some main regulatory obstacles remain, like the restrictions governing credit growth, to inhibit growth in net banking income. Also binding regulations set by some central banks in the region often impose bureaucratic processes. Also, banks will have to deal with financial transparency may be limited, to understand the economic health of their third example.

However, the states of Central Europe, mostly integrated into the EU, should be quickly put in line with European standards and guidelines and promote the establishment of foreign banks. Their alignment of means of payment or accounting standards is remarkable.

Still, the disparities within the region persist. Some states of Eastern Europe have large current account deficits and political instability, like the Balkans. Therefore, it is questionable whether these countries will be able to follow the path of the "leading countries" such as Slovenia, Hungary or the Czech Republic and converge to a stable market economy and conducive to the rapid emergence of financial services. From this perspective, Europe is undoubtedly a great ally.

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Financial Services

Consequently, the CEECs converge progressively towards consumption standards similar to those observed in Western Europe and reveal a proven potential for banking services. Although over 80% in Croatia or the Czech Republic, the rate remains low in most countries of the area, such as Romania, Bulgaria or Ukraine. As proof, the share of deposits to GDP stagnated in the latter State to 23% in 2005 against 90% for the euro area. Initiated fewer than twenty years, the transition from a de facto demonetized from Soviet pattern and a market economy is new and explains the low level of banking services. Therefore the CEEC are in a learning phase of the "bank" and the concepts and mechanisms inherent in the savings and credit, in a context marked by the absence of national champions or at local banks reference.

Thus, despite the rise of some local industry the development opportunities are real and evidenced by the growing demand for consumer credit or to the habitat. In addition to the benefits of the wave of privatizations, banking and investment also benefits from the financing needs of state and local governments under-equipped and is involved in the emergence of large industrial groups in the region.


To exploit these opportunities and differentiate themselves from their local competitors, foreign banks can rely on better product knowledge, particularly in private banking, where financial engineering is growing rapidly. The increased standard of living behind the rapid growth of the CEECs argues for a broader offering to meet increased need for diversified products, at least in the country’s most bank accounts or may become a near horizon. Meanwhile, banks will have to segment their offer and better distinguish the customers 'standards' of "tributaries" in particular financing. In this context, a solid local employee is no longer a luxury. They will have to learn to build a trusting relationship with customers, whose perception of banks is still mixed. The practice of clear and transparent pricing and secure banking will improve this perception.

The Economic Capital Requirements

The economic method goes further in the correlation of risks. Thus, the approach in terms of economic capital it often leads to a discussion of possible spin-off or termination of activities too inefficient because too greedy in equity (although sometimes very profitable). This view of risk thus favors an approach that is more conservative but also more efficient in the management of financial institutions.


Based on calculation methods close, the two types of capital are in fact in the service of distinct interest. Regulatory capital are primarily intended to maintain the solvency of all financial markets in order to avoid systemic risk, with, ultimately, the aim of guaranteeing the rights of depositors. And, in addition to these economic goals, regulation responds to political ends, as shown in the measure of risk for companies. Indeed, the method of calculating the risk Basel II is a purpose not to penalize SMEs in their research funding from major groups.

Conversely, the economic capital requirements respond first and foremost the concern to maximize business performance, and taking into account the risk is on the basis of this single purpose. Market stability, which is an end in itself in the regulatory framework is a result driven by the desire to improve the profitability of each financial institution.

Thus, the changes marked by the Basel II promote convergence of regulatory capital to their economic equivalents. But if the approach in terms of economic capital can meet some regulatory requirements, it remains primarily a lever that should enable financial institutions to improve and better manage financial performance.

The economic approach thus requires overcoming the only framework set by the Basel Committee, which is reflected in the efforts and significant investments in collecting the necessary data and developing models related. A close collaboration between the Risk Management, Finance and the various trades is also required with a strong involvement of the "top management" to ensure proper deployment of the approach in the establishment. So many projects and milestones that represent the next challenges banks for years to come...

The Economic Capital Management

Beyond these differences on the nature of the risk taken into account, the two types of methods are opposed to their method of calculation. Indeed, the peculiarity of the economic capital is that it incorporates the correlations between micro-economic risk of the counterparty in question and the macroeconomic risks that could affect it. The economic sector of the counterparty or its geographic location and are included in the measure of risk, so you can enjoy the most exhaustive possible potential failures.

More broadly, the sensitivity of the consideration to changing the general economic situation is also a factor in determining the economic capital, through the calculation of the coefficient R2. Thus, while regulatory capital stops at the theoretical definition of the risk of the counterparty, the internal model for determining the economic capital takes into account economic conditions and interdependencies of various factors, allowing a more detailed assessment of risk and therefore economic capital to put in front of the activity.

Specific objectives in the economic capital are an essential instrument of strategic management

Economic capital should actually meet three objectives nested, with the backdrop of the profit motive of financial institution:

* Assessment of risk-adjusted returns: in particular through the calculation of RAROC (Risk Adjusted Return on Capital). The RAROC measures the rate of return of an activity by adjusting the level of capital employed by the risk. Economic capital thus defined to measure the financial performance of the activity in the expected benefits related to capital needed to cover it.
* Portfolio Management: Once the risk-adjusted returns calculated, it becomes possible to compare the actual performance of various businesses of the bank.
* Strategic management activities: economic capital thus enables the bank to arbitrate between the different professions in order to optimize the use of capital.

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Regulatory Capital

With the reform of the Cooke ratio implementation through the Basel II regulations, the calculation of regulatory capital tends to approach the method highly economical. Based on a finer appreciation of risk capital. Regulatory and would achieve the same objectives as economic capital. But if the effects induced by the application of Basel II can approach the objectives of economic capital, economic capital remains under a real added value in relation to regulatory capital for strategic management activities.


The economic capital of a financial institution, amount of capital required to meet unexpected losses (unexpected loss) is defined using internal models for each activity. The Cooke ratio in turn was based on a more comprehensive approach to risk, not broken down by activity. Conversely, regulatory capital as defined by Basel II is characterized by a measure of individual risk, including segmentation between risk classes, which brings them closer to an economic vision. Moreover, the loss rate (LGD) or exposure to default (EAD) are factors common to both types of methods in determining the capital.

However, despite these similarities, a fundamental difference between the two methods is the notion of risk considered. Indeed, the risk of "outstanding" included in the internal economic capital model is wider than the risks involved in the Basel II regulations, and cover the face of unexpected losses does not necessarily require an increase in equity . Indeed, the economic capital includes the entire system set up on the line of activity. Thus, the managerial qualities such coverage may be the face of extraordinary losses considered in determining the economic capital.

potential Of Financial Services

The share of foreign capital into the banking assets of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), now estimated at 75% to 80%, is anything but an accident. This trend was encouraged by the movement of bank privatization. Trade observed over the past decade and to develop intermediary capable of mobilizing domestic savings. Above all, this figure demonstrates the potential growth in the region to major markets such as Russia, Poland or Hungary, and masks the presence of unequal foreign financial players.

Specifically, several German and Italian banks such as Commerzbank and Unicredit or Austrian and Swiss, the image of Erste Bank and Raiffeisen, are already well established, indicating that geographic proximity was a key factor in the conquest of the new Eastern markets. Also, funds provided by these states and for the CEECs in the 1990s have probably facilitated the implementation of their banks. Most surprising finding, the "global players" (HSBC, Citibank ...) have invested less, preferring other growth markets like China. Similarly, the French presence is limited, with the exception of Societe Generale which CEE a major focus of its development.


Yet these countries have managed to restore their economies and now represent a real alternative to the erosion of traditional markets of Western Europe. To get there, the CEECs, ordered to move towards the convergence criteria, have benefited from European integration, or at least his perspective, positively impacting their economies. Thus, before adopting the euro in 2007, Slovenia has seen its GDP grow by 5.2%, its unemployment rate drop to 6% and inflation at 2.6%.

The Currency

The dollar Thaler born in the mountains of Bohemia in 1520, is very young face, for example, the dinar Arabic, the denarius of the New Testament. Longevity also a bit mysterious, like everything related to money. After all, why accept a piece of gold, silver or shell as payment? Because this object is easily transformed into jewelry, thus satisfying a need for adornment supposedly inherent in all humanity. But then an austere and puritanical society should not prohibit it and the currency is limited to barter? In fact, the seller has accepted this sign because he knows that he will pay him tomorrow or something, which means something more durable, the day after tomorrow. And he knows because it is the custom, or rather the law, which de facto limits the jurisdiction in which money circulates. Moreover, more power is distant and changing the law, more monetary support of the sign must be rare and valuable: Darius fought for gold, silver and Pericles Leonidas iron.

Therefore, only legitimate democracies of the twentieth century were able to permanently accept the greenback as currency transactions, and reserve account. Only, indeed, such a system allows the public to believe sincerely that the State work for the common good and not primarily for private benefit, especially legally. Contract law is respected by the courts, the promised values do not fluctuate overnight at the discretion of the parties, as is often the case with an arbitrary power, so a simple piece of paper is a reserve credible value. Even today, this is not apparent everywhere and one can rightly assume that the strong demand for gold, saving the Indians and, increasingly, the Chinese in fact reflect a deep distrust of these people face their leaders and their judges. It is thus not surprising that any lasting weakening of the statutory authority is accompanied by currency turmoil.

The Currecny and The Inflation

If the tickets are not hoarded, but used as soon as possible, the rampant inflation is not preprogrammed. This requires, besides the loss of confidence in the state, a simultaneous collapse of production, caused for example by the French occupation of the Ruhr in Weimar Germany, the nationalizations of the early Soviet unbridled or hunting white farmers in Zimbabwe of Mugabe, to name only the most famous examples of hyperinflation.

Such phases have been rather rare, especially given the tremendous growth that the world has known these past hundred years. Is that the introduction of a purely fiduciary currency regime has liberated our economies of these brakes ancestral: the lack of credit and therefore money. Ever it was no more acute than in the standard purest gold, between 1870 and 1910, during which nine successive recessions in the United States, the Bank of England has often had to temporarily lift its cover- Gold, protectionism grew at the same time as the social discontent. Between the rush California and the opening of South African mines, the world sorely missed because of the yellow metal to properly feed its growth potential. So - as some said - that humanity is not crucified on a cross of gold, while central banks have gained powers when they have not simply been created as the U.S. Federal Reserve and the National Bank Switzerland. But the link to gold remained still too strong since it is probably he who explains the magnitude of the Great Depression of the 30s.

Faced with these shortages and crises, and despite all its faults, the monetary regime fiduciary past fifty years seems rather beneficial. Certainly, central banks create money by their own judgments, frightening those who do not understand the value of a currency does not lie in its coverage, but in its ability to purchase. Now this creation is not reckless because the tickets are always accepted with gusto by those who are lucky enough to receive it. For accounting purposes, rather, they seem-backed IOUs, but it might not be the case if they were not put into circulation through banks.

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The Economic Crash and The Future of Dollar

The death of a currency is essentially a political thing. It may be decided in the cold, as in the old currencies of the euro area. It can also - and often does - disappear because the company no longer operates legally. While it may be pessimistic about the future of the United States, but only Cassandra argue that this country is on the verge of collapse. So the dollar will survive even as the U.S. economy recovers, the federal government has ever borrowed so cheap and instead of inflation, deflation is more threatening, thereby increasing Americans even more attractive for their money. Certainly, the greenback could get by in his corner, but losing its prerogatives international. However not forget that more than a store of value is the motto franca of global trade, one in which most prices are rank, and transactions are settled. Neither the renminbi still inconvertible nor faltering euro area can play this role today and even tomorrow. This will be a fortiori not the case of a basket type SDR, an instrument that can be used for transactions, no one ever knowing which component of the basket used. As proof, the ECU was not only becoming euro currency. All proposals to reform the international monetary system based on such a cart so that saliva are lost. Unless of course, like the European Monetary Union, we created a world central bank issuing, say, bancors, as Keynes had proposed at Bretton Woods in 1944, an idea that nobody is going to seriously defend after disappointments that one size fits all policy of the ECB has brought.

The Economic Trend and Prospects of Dollar

In terms of profitability, companies in Europe have seen their profits grow by an average of 13% from 1998 to 2008, as against nearly half (7%) to their American rivals. And if the U.S. financial sector is much more comprehensive and profitable than that of Europe, the crisis of 2008 showed that he can destroy in a few months the entire stock market value created in a decade. In the end, and above all, the huge weakness of U.S. growth model is that it is based on debt. Europe obviously has its own debt problems, but its two engines, Germany and France, keep public finances healthier than the U.S. by 2014, the IMF provides. The trade balance in Europe has remained strong, primarily because it is facing competition from Asia in manufacturing and service sectors, the Europeans were able to focus on products with high added value, such as luxury goods and precision tools. The Americans, losing their competitiveness in the manufacturing sector, have carried on consumer credit.

In the U.S., we like the easy is being printed and devalued. And markets are applauding. The fact that it has a high cost for the future goes out the window. This policy operates in the markets' perception that the idea to use credit produces wealth. But this "truth" is leveled at around a beautiful fable only be enriched when producing goods and services and a debt that has accumulated leave mine GDP growth and competitiveness.

And if the return to growth post-2001 has been sharpest in the United States, because Europe has calculated its growth more restrictive than the United States, Underestimating the reality, while United States, conversely, inflated their numbers. And again, U.S. growth has come at a future cost much higher than Europe, which has boosted its economy without stimulus. The United States has instead introduced a fiscal stimulus and monetary policy extremely lax, who only prepare the huge destruction of value in 2008. And since 2009, the same fiscal and monetary doping was replaced in even larger proportions ... The headlong rush is obvious.

Great Recession - 1930

The Great Depression of the 1930s is probably the most studied topic in American economic history. Contrary to some persistent myths conveyed by the opponents of the market economy, there is not yet consensus on its causes and its exceptional duration. So today begins our collaborator in the first two columns, to present another vision of the crisis as it was developed by Friedrich Hayek, Murray Rothbard, Milton Friedman, Robert Higgs and other liberal authors.

The Depression of the 1930s is invariably presented as the logical outcome of capitalism. Victim of its own contradictions that led to a crisis of overproduction and concentration of wealth in the hands of some exploiters, the market economy would have been saved by judicious intervention of the New Deal of Franklin Delano Roosevelt. This scenario, however, one big problem: it is supported by no historical data. We will therefore examine in this column a different view of the Great Depression, arguing that its severity can be explained largely by the policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and the subsequent actions of Republican President Herbert Hoover, a man who is usually presents as an uncompromising liberal.

The Origin of Great Recession Part.II

While exports of European companies were able to maintain their share of 17% of the global market since 2000, from their American rivals fell 17% to 11% over the same period. The element that is reflected in the very healthy trade balance of Europe. Of the 100 largest multinationals in the world, the EU has raised its share from 57 to 61 between 1991 and 2009. Conversely, of 26, the U.S. does boast more than 19. The key to this success: the European companies were the most highly globalized, their share of sales outside the EU up 39% against 30% for the United States.


In terms of production, American superiority is another myth. Between 1995 and 2005, if the data are attuned to replicate differences in economic cycles, trend efficiency growth in the euro area is slightly more than the U.S., said Kevin Daly, an economist at Goldman Sachs N, 2010.Concernant in undersized and intermediate enterprises, as their productivity is comparable to those of the New Continent. And their rate of globalization is very high, as the share of their sales abroad often reaches 80%. Especially, their degree of innovation is actually much higher: most industrial innovations of the last decade has occurred in Europe, while they have virtually disappeared from the U.S., where the focus is almost exclusively on technological innovation (Apple, Google, Facebook).

In addition, countless industrial producers of niche and major automakers and high-speed trains (Renault, Fiat, Volkswagen, Alstom) are European, and now dominate the trade with the emerging giants (Brazil, Russia, India, China).

The Origin of Great Recession Part.I

The origin of the "Great Recession" World 2008 - 2009, there is a drift of American finance practices resulting from the dismantling in the 1980s, dozens of laws protecting savings, followed an unprecedented collapse of ethical standards and minimum care in the world of banks and businesses. These developments have led to a culture of excessive leverage and the institutionalized cheating accountant who has infected the global financial system public and private, only too happy to expose himself, but too ill-prepared to extricate them. Despite this, the United States remains more than ever seen as the yardstick of economic success and financial Europe is declared the loser in all competitions. That of the currency and interest rate policy, that of economic growth, the hourly productivity, wage levels and labor market reforms, the fiscal discipline. And when the U.S. subprime crisis erupted, is actually Europe that has suffered most, because it undertakes to settle all problems with printing money.

This obvious bias was reflected in the outperformance of the Dow Jones U.S. index relative to the European index Euro Stoxx 50 between 2003 and today, the market penalizes the more conservative policies that emphasize the long term. But again, the myth trumps reality. The commonplace on U.S. growth is inhibited by greater numbers. On the one hand, GDP per capita grew slightly more European than the United States since 2000. On the other hand, European companies are more competitive in many ways, than their American counterparts. Recall that according to the World Economic Forum on the 20 most competitive economies in the world, 12 are européennes12 (7 of which use the euro).

Inflation and US Economy

The Fed has chosen to focus on core inflation (core inflation), which excludes food and energy, ignoring the historically high commodity prices. It kept interest rates low and fueled the subprime bubble that has "poisoned" the financial sector in all developed countries. In contrast, the ECB has chosen to focus on overall inflation, reflecting the influence of emerging markets on rising commodity prices. This resulted in a much more accommodative monetary policy for the Fed, which will be maintained during the decade 2000 - 2010, real interest rates negative to zero half the time, conduct unthinkable in Europe, where the rate interest of the ECB held steady over the decade in a range of 2% to 4.25% and is down below 1% since May 2009.

In short, Europe was characterized by a more responsible economic management and a long term vision that contrasts with the choice of U.S. policies rewarding in the short term but long term suicidal. In doing so, Euroland has been repeatedly sanctioned as less effective by a financial community hungry for "chips" to power the "casino", and anabolic steroids to boost the stock market. United States, this meant a policy of overstimulation leading to the forced expansion of an economy that was completely retract, the time to cleanse themselves and go on a diet. So these last twenty years, Europe has been seen and experienced as rigid and boring by market operators constantly claiming she is aligned with the U.S. monetary policy, "more growth-oriented," and that it manages to stimulate consumer debt, ideal dictated by the U.S. model. "Always behind," Europe is less than the U.S. in times of euphoria, facial expression does one, and falls into a recession more severe in times of crisis, even when these crises have their origin the United States.

And one pretends to ignore that Europe, with less cheating because its economy is suffering as long as she finds herself infected, its territory by U.S. banks toxic. Indeed, the same "solutions doping" that Goldman Sachs sold to Greece have been used in the early 2000s by various regional banks and public entities in Europe, including Italy, Portugal, in the German Länder, and Eastern Europe. But the national authorities and community were not ready to provide remedies as extreme as their American counterparts.

The Dollar May End!!!

Favre appeared recently in "The End of the dollar" of Myrette Zaki is certainly better than what we hear from those who take the title literally. It's not about death or disappearance of the U.S. currency. Just the story, and especially the news of his slow decline in stages. Some passages seem suddenly very enlightening. Like this, this reflects the European perception of two irreconcilable approaches to the economy.

Ala expansionist policy and unconventional Federal Reserve opposed the plan cautiously and strictly European. Europeans are resisting the American vision, which is also that market. They seek to reduce budget deficits and considered, rightly, that the austerity efforts today will be rewarded in the future. Conversely, the word "austerity" has disappeared from the American vocabulary long ago, the latter being perceived by investors as "bad for growth."

So that even if U.S. growth in 2011 is higher than that of Europe, the price paid by the United States to have postponed indefinitely a return to austerity is incalculable long-term. Although more conservative, the ECB has chosen to limit as much as possible in November 2010, liquidity injections, such as practice shots at the Fed redemptions of government securities. With regard to redemptions of bonds of countries in difficulty by the ECB, they are limited to 72 billion euros at the end of 2010, 90 billion dollars. Including the purchase of private debt securities, the ECB is the guarantor of some 200 billion euros. In comparison, the Fed has made, by June 2011, the repurchase of securities amounting to 2.3 trillion dollars in its two programs of "quantitative easing" (QE I and II), 1000000000000 toxic securities, earning the nickname the passage of "financial shock". In other words, the comparison is almost absurd because the interventions totaled U.S. tenfold. Despite this, the ECB believes it has made a major concession by buying back shares because it has derogated from article 123 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU which outlaws "monetizing the debt", ie the process "run the printing press".

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Still bad news for U.S. economy

The U.S. economy suffered further bad news. First, the Commerce Department left unchanged its estimate for growth in the fourth quarter, to 0.6% only. However, analysts expected a 0.8% enhancement.

These figures are 2.2% growth over the whole year, from 2.9% in 2006, which is the lowest rate since 2002. Household consumption fell sharply in the last quarter (+1.9% instead of 2% estimated earlier, and after 2.8% in the third quarter) and investment in the stone has indeed fallen by 25, 2% (instead of -23.9%), the largest decline recorded since 1981. Business investment grew by only 6.9% (instead of 7.5%).

Inflation is well above normal

The index measuring prices related to consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 4.1% (instead of 3.9%), and the PCE core index (excluding food and energy) increased 2.7 %, as in the first estimate. Now the Fed wants to keep it normally from 1% to 2%.
Finally, the weekly claims for unemployment benefits rose 19,000 to 373,000 in the United States during the week ended Feb. 23. Analysts had forecast 350,000 jobless.

Bad news for the U.S. economy

A bad news for the U.S. economy: This could impact on New York and the other European stock exchanges also. According to official figures released Friday, found hiring a standstill for the second successive month in the U.S. in June, the joblessness rate for its enduring his climb. According to the employment report from the Labor Department during the month just ended, the U.S. economy created only 18,000 more jobs than it destroys.

Hopeful, analysts expected for their hiring of 80 000 net. The situation is particularly alarming that these new posts will not ensure employment for young people entering the labor market. As a result, the official redundancy rate of the country continues to rise which began in April, now stands at 9.2%, and its peak level since the beginning of the year.

The balance in May was also revised down from 54,000 to 25,000. Note that the figures from the Ministry are in total opposition to the satisfactory results of the survey published Thursday on the ADP private employment, destroying almost the wave of hope born yesterday.

The accord reached by Bloomberg on tables and 105,000 new jobs, the agency has raised its estimate of 83,000 initially, given the good figures released by ADP. But now the situation has heightened concerns about the continuing slowdown in the U.S. economy, new support measures being considered. A circumstance for the turn down in financial markets: for example, at the close on Friday, the Dow Jones fell by 0.49% to 12,657 points, the Nasdaq dropping 0.45% to 2860 points and the S & P 500 falling 0.70 % to 1344 points.

Tips for Investment In Stocks Part.III

Certain conditions must be met for a product to be the target of speculators, they are:
* A growing market:
Forecasts and expectations on the treated product should be the hause.
Oil is a commodity increasingly used in our economies and especially in emerging countries.
The consumption worldwide is increasing steadily for many years but natural resources are not infinite.
The price of a barrel of oil went from $ 30 in 2004 to $ 120 in 2008, an increase of 300% in 4 years..
The law of supply and demand simply acting on this market: more and more demand, less supply.
* Market liquidity:
Have a rising market is a thing essentially, but not sufficient, speculation implies easily able to buy and sell easily. Buy 10,000 tons of oil today at $ 120 is useless tomorrow if nobody buys you $ 200, what would you do 10 000 tons of oil at home?
The liquidity of the market must be large, which is the case for a barrel of oil is trading very easily: the cargo on large oil change ownership several times during their sea voyage.

It therefore appears that the playground of speculators in markets that have already started up and have significant prospects in the same direction.
Speculation does while follow market trends.
* "The speculation does not create trends but amplified"
The rising price of oil is not directly related to speculation but to:
* Demand more and bigger (with a demand for more and more strong in emerging countries)
* Deal with an offer less and less important or less stagnant (it was estimated that the natural reserves could cover another 10 years of our world's needs for oil-drilling techniques are becoming more efficient).

Tips for Investment In Stocks Part.II

The Money is considered a low risk investment and therefore to use in policies with high risk aversion.

Diversification, the key against all attacks (almost). Whether to retain a single word it is this one: DIVERSIFICATION!

As stated above the proverb fits so well: "Do not put all your eggs in one basket."

Stock market diversification is to invest in different companies, different business sectors, different geographic areas, this allows not only partially undergo a crisis of a business or present in a geographic area.

Take the example of the Internet bubble at the end of year 90:
Case 1: People who invested only in technology stocks could have a portfolio valued at several million at the end of year 90. When the Internet bubble burst, their portfolio has plummeted to a value near zero.
Case 2: People with a partially invested in technology stocks and partly in the so-called traditional values, certainly had a portfolio valued less than the 'case 1', however, when the Internet bubble burst, their investments in traditional societies were allowed to keep a good value of their portfolio (even if the technology stocks that have collapsed, traditional values have continued to grow).
Investing in life is to apply a rule to limit losses due to changing markets. The principle: invest gradually and investing in time.
Financial speculation
Financial speculation is the fact to act in anticipation of market trends. It aims to use the profits in the short to medium term and is applied to all financial markets (equities, currency, commodities ...).

The principle of speculation is the goal of profit by anticipating market trends.
Investors speculation on the current price of a barrel of oil price increase its estimate that more or less important in the near future. They will buy at a price of barrels of oil to be sold at a price B (B> A) a little later.

Tips for Investment In Stocks Part.I

Here are some important principles to be followed while invest in share market. Applying these principles has the effect to win every time but to reduce its exposure to changing markets. They are not exhaustive but represent a good start to understand the philosophy of financial investments. Knowing the aversion to risk is very important in stock trading. What is risk aversion?

Risk aversion is the level of risk you're willing to accept. A strong aversion to risk means that you bear little risk, and conversely a low aversion to risk implies that you're willing to take risks.
Risk aversion can be classified into three categories:

* Low
* Average
* Strong

Once its aversion to risk assessment, it is possible to choose its investment products. It is important to realize that the returns are commensurate with risks: the higher the risk, the greater the gain / loss potential can be significant.

Some products are to be avoided or privileged following its aversion to risk, here are the 3 main families of products that can be used:

* Shares

Shares are products with high volatility, it is best to choose this mode of investment strategies with low risk aversion. It is possible to make a lot quickly, but also losing a lot.

* Bonds

The Bonds are to be considered in strategies to moderate or high risk aversion (this will depend on the strength of the underlying). These products allow recovery of interest at intervals over a set period of time. The risk of these investments is the cessation of payment of the underlying (state, company ...).